Core Insights - Yadea Technology Group achieved over 4 million electric two-wheeler sales in Q1 2025, marking a nearly 100% year-on-year growth, solidifying its position as the global sales leader in this sector [1] Technology Barriers - Yadea's innovative "Modern Series" has gained consumer recognition due to its aesthetic appeal and ten safety features, leading to significant demand and full truckloads for delivery [1] - The flagship "Champion Series" focuses on long battery life and smart configurations, showcasing Yadea's commitment to meeting diverse consumer needs through a comprehensive product matrix supported by substantial technological reserves [3] - Since its listing in 2016, Yadea has invested over 5.927 billion yuan in R&D, holding more than 2,000 patents, which has resulted in a technology iteration speed that surpasses the industry average [5] User-Centric Approach - A significant portion of new vehicle buyers in Q1 2025 were young consumers, prompting Yadea to engage with this demographic through collaborations with popular figures, product customization, and community operations [6] - Yadea's Net Promoter Score (NPS) stands at 48, significantly higher than the industry average of 32, indicating strong consumer loyalty and satisfaction driven by quality and service [9] Dual-Driven Strategy - Yadea has established eight smart production and research bases globally, including locations in Vietnam and Indonesia, enhancing supply chain efficiency and responsiveness to regional market demands [13] - The company boasts a robust after-sales service network with over 40,000 stores worldwide, providing timely support for battery replacements, repairs, and maintenance, which has contributed to its industry-leading service certification [15] Market Outlook - Yadea's strong performance in Q1 2025 reflects its deep understanding of consumer needs, ongoing investment in technology, and adaptability to global market changes, with analysts projecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 15-16 times and a 16% increase in sales expectations for 2025 [11][15]

Core Insights - Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) reported its most severe performance decline since its listing, with 2024 revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, plunging 51.8%, marking a five-year low [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total sales of Yadea's electric two-wheelers dropped from 16.5 million units in 2023 to 13.02 million units in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.18%, significantly exceeding the industry decline of 11.6% [3] - Revenue loss of approximately 6.5 billion yuan due to reduced sales, coupled with a clearance strategy that lowered gross margin from 16.9% to 15.2%, the lowest in seven years [3] - Inventory increased to 1.653 billion yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year, indicating a decline in dealer inventory turnover and reduced confidence [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - Yadea's long-standing "low price + channel" strategy faces severe challenges as the industry shifts towards stock competition, making its extensive network of over 40,000 sales points a burden [2][3] - The company holds only a 4.1% market share in the high-end segment (priced above 7,000 yuan), significantly lower than competitors like Ninebot (51.7%) and Niu Technologies (43.8%) [4] - Quality issues have emerged, with multiple models flagged in a regulatory inspection, and high complaint volumes regarding battery life and after-sales service, damaging brand reputation [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yadea is attempting to pivot through technological upgrades and a global strategy, launching sodium-ion battery electric vehicles in 2023 and investing 1.147 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, totaling over 5.93 billion yuan [4] - Southeast Asia is a strategic focus, with production capacity in Vietnam increasing to 500,000 units and a new factory in Indonesia expected to reach a total capacity of 3.5 million units, leading to a 23% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue [4] Group 4: Industry Context - Yadea's struggles reflect broader industry trends, highlighting the need for traditional manufacturers to break away from path dependence and rebuild core competitiveness in an era driven by technology and consumer upgrades [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月03日 雅迪控股（01585.HK） 优于大市 2024 年利润承压，2025 年有望迎来恢复 2024 年收入及利润下滑受国检、去库存等拖累。雅迪控股 2024 年实现营 业收入 282.4 亿元，同比下降 18.9%，净利润 12.7 亿元，同比下降 51.8%； 2024H1 营业收入 144.3 亿元，同比下降 15.5%，净利润 10.3 亿元，同 比下降 13%，2024H2 营业收入 138.1 亿元，同比下降 22.1%，净利润 2.4 亿元，同比下降 83.6%，收入及利润下滑主要是国检影响经销商出货节 奏，公司促销去库存等综合导致。 2024 年利润率下滑，费用率提升。2024 年公司进行去库存，部分产品打 折促销，影响整体利润率，2024 年毛利率 15.2%，同比下降 1.7pct，净 利率 4.5%，同比下降 3.1pct。公司对销售、管理费用也进行相应控制， 销售、管理费用率保持稳健，同时公司仍然保持了较高的研发投入，研 发费用率提升至 4.1%，较 2023 年提升 0.6pct。整体看公司 2024 年综 合费用率为 11.7%，同比提升 0. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a temporary vacuum in demand due to safety incidents and increased adaptation costs during the transition to new national standards [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.22 HKD per share plus a special dividend of 0.23 HKD, totaling 1.368 billion HKD, which represents 99.6% of the net profit for 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [2] - The industry outlook is positive, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to boost demand and optimize supply dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.2%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to inventory clearance and product structure adjustments. The total expense ratio was 11.70%, reflecting a rise in costs amid declining revenues [2] - The sales volume for 2024 was approximately 13.0205 million units, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, with electric bicycles accounting for 69.8% of total sales [1] Industry Outlook - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue and strengthen through 2025, with average subsidies ranging from 500 to 1000 yuan, leading to an acceleration in replacement demand [3] - The new national standards will raise entry barriers for the industry, benefiting compliant and responsive companies like the report's subject, which is well-positioned to capture market share [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand positioning, with new high-end models launched to attract specific consumer segments, including women [4] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam starting operations, and plans to enhance its retail footprint in Southeast Asia and Europe [9] Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 41.307 billion yuan, 49.770 billion yuan, and 56.923 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 46.3%, 20.5%, and 14.4% [10] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 3.207 billion yuan, 3.808 billion yuan, and 4.377 billion yuan, with growth rates of 152.0%, 18.7%, and 14.9% [10]

Summary of Yadea Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yadea Holdings - **Date**: March 29, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The growth in Q1 2025 was supported by favorable national policies, particularly the delay of new standards until Q4, creating a conducive environment for the industry [3][4] - The company has adjusted its sales and product strategies since October 2024, leading to clearer product positioning and improved performance [3][4] Financial Performance - Q1 performance benefited from policy delays, product strategy adjustments focusing on long-range, lightweight design, and trade-in programs, with an average rebate reduction of over 50 yuan per vehicle, enhancing unit price and gross margin [4] - The average selling price (ASP) is maintained above 2,200 yuan, with expected annual sales of 16.5 to 17 million units and a gross margin of approximately 18% [4][9] Product Strategy - The company has redefined its product lines: - **Crown Series**: Emphasizes long-range and longevity - **Modern Series**: Focuses on lightweight design and aesthetics - **Classic Series**: Enhances cost-performance ratio [4][5] - The introduction of the T35 product has been successful, indicating a shift towards smart vehicle design [7][8] Market Segmentation - The mid-to-high-end market strategy has shown success, with the Crown and Modern series accounting for 44% of sales and products priced above 3,000 yuan making up over 55% of sales [5][9] - The company targets two main consumer groups in the mid-to-high-end market: those valuing individuality and those interested in customization [14][15][16] Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has effectively captured approximately 800,000 units of demand, with 40% of stores participating [4][10][11] - The program is not mandatory for dealers but has seen high voluntary participation due to competitive pressures [12] Battery Technology and Innovations - The company upgraded its lead-acid battery technology, doubling its lifespan without increasing costs, leading to strong demand in both pre-installed and aftermarket segments [17] - Exploration of sodium-ion battery technology is ongoing, with two pathways being developed: one for fast charging and another for cost-effective promotion [19][24] Retail and Distribution Strategy - The company currently operates 41,500 retail outlets, with plans to add 5,000 new or upgraded stores, expecting a net increase of 2,000 to 3,000 [21] - The focus for 2025 is on mid-range products priced between 2,500 to 4,500 yuan, with a cautious approach to marketing expenditures [23] International Expansion - The company is cautious about large-scale capital expenditures for international expansion, focusing instead on addressing product model issues before scaling operations [27] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved profitability in 2025 compared to 2022, driven by strategic adjustments and market conditions [20][22] Additional Insights - The company is committed to enhancing service quality and market competitiveness through differentiated service strategies [20] - The marketing strategy is evolving towards new retail models, competing with brands like Ninebot and Niu [6] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Yadea Holdings' proactive measures in navigating market challenges and opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - Yadea Holdings has reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, marking one of the worst performances in its history, with revenue down 18.8% to 28.236 billion yuan and net profit halved by 51.8% to 1.272 billion yuan [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yadea's revenue for 2024 was 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, while net profit fell to 1.272 billion yuan, a drop of 51.8% compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company's performance in 2024 is described as the worst since its listing, with both revenue and net profit showing negative growth for the first time since 2016 [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Yadea reached a five-year low, with margins decreasing from 18.08% in 2022 to 15.19% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures despite reduced sales [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall market for electric two-wheelers in China saw a total sales volume of 49.5 million units in 2024, down 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting a saturated market with diminishing new demand [2][4] - Yadea's sales volume dropped to 13.0205 million units in 2024, a decrease of 350,000 units from 2023, with electric bicycle sales falling by approximately 21.4% [7][8] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with rivals like Aima Technology and Ninebot gaining market share, while Yadea struggles to maintain its position [1][4] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Yadea has implemented a price reduction strategy to clear existing inventory, with electric bicycles' average selling price dropping from 1,380 yuan in 2023 to 1,347 yuan in 2024 [6][7] - Despite these efforts, the company still faced a 20% decline in sales volume, indicating that price cuts alone were insufficient to stimulate demand [6][7] - Inventory levels remained high at 1.279 billion yuan by the end of 2024, an increase of 33.91% from the previous year, suggesting challenges in inventory management [9]

(30%) (12%) 6% 24% 42% 60% 24/3/27 24/6/7 24/8/18 24/10/29 25/1/9 25/3/22 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 31.13/31.13 总市值/流通(亿港元) 467.52/467.52 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 17.28/9 2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 雅迪控股(01585) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 雅迪控股：2024H2 业绩短期承压，中高端+出海值得期待 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<收入利润双位数增长，优化产品结 构和终端有望持续增厚业绩>>-- 2024-03-20 <<雅迪控股 23H1 点评：拓展价格带 推升销量，盈利压力逐步释放>>-- 2023-08-30 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to several factors, including heightened public concern over battery safety following an incident in Nanjing, new national standards affecting the industry, and a de-stocking cycle among distributors [3] - The company’s electric two-wheeler sales decreased from approximately 16.5 million units in 2023 to about 13.0 million units in 2024 [3] - The company is expected to see a rebound in revenue, with projections of 38.17 billion yuan, 42.29 billion yuan, and 45.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.2%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points, primarily due to price reductions on existing models [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 4.51%, down 3.08 percentage points [4] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, consisting of a final dividend of 0.22 HKD and a special dividend of 0.23 HKD [2] Sales and Product Breakdown - Revenue from electric bicycles and electric scooters in 2024 was 12.24 billion yuan (down 23.2%) and 7.09 billion yuan (down 17.9%) respectively [3] - The average selling price (ASP) for electric bicycles decreased by 2.37% to 1,347 yuan, while the ASP for electric scooters increased by 3.61% to 1,804 yuan [3] Future Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.00 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are expected to be 13.76, 12.15, and 11.11 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, increasing to 160,000 units by 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, 80,000 in 2026, and 160,000 in 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 19.5% by 2027 [4][10].