招商证券国际表示，当前市场对公司产品周期过度悲观，忽略公司精细管理提效能力，渠道下沉拓展空 间以及海外拓展空间。公司有超过千亿现金，有足够源应对短期逆风。预计三季度是交付量低点，i6上 市后将扭转市场悲观预期。该行分别下调理想汽车2025至2027年净利润预测(非GAAP)48%、28%、 25%，反映新品断档期盈利承压。 招商证券国际发布研报称，理想汽车-W(02015,LI.US)今年次季度业绩低于预期，新车空窗期销量增长 乏力，但盈利能力稳中有升，纯电新品i8交付顺利，管理层预计截至9月底累计交付目标为8,000至 10,000台，产能与供应链稳定性良好，i8市场接受度好于预期。建议逢低吸纳，维持"增持"评级，下调 港股目标价至115港元、美股目标价至30美元，相当于2026财年19倍市盈率，相对公司历史平均估值折 让27%。 ...

Core Insights - Li Auto Inc. delivered 28,529 vehicles in August 2025, bringing cumulative deliveries to 1,397,070 as of August 31, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is set to launch the Li i6, a battery electric SUV, priced between approximately RMB250,000 and RMB300,000 in September [2] - As of August 31, 2025, Li Auto operated 543 retail stores in 156 cities, 536 servicing centers, and authorized body and paint shops in 222 cities [3] - The company has 3,190 supercharging stations with 17,597 charging stalls in operation across China [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Li Auto is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on designing, developing, manufacturing, and selling premium smart electric vehicles [4] - The company aims to create a mobile home and happiness through innovations in product, technology, and business model [4] - Li Auto has successfully commercialized extended-range electric vehicles in China while also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [4]

Core Insights - The CEO of Li Auto, Li Xiang, has publicly disclosed the company's annual strategic goals for the pure electric SUV sector, aiming for a competitive position of "保五争三" (maintain fifth place and strive for third) in the high-end electric market by the end of the year [1] Sales Targets - Li Auto's future model, the Li i8, is expected to achieve a monthly sales volume of 6,000 units once it enters a stable delivery phase [1] - The Li i6 model has a higher monthly sales target set between 9,000 to 10,000 units during its stable period [1] - Overall, the company aims for its entire pure electric product line, including the already launched Li MEGA, to reach a stable monthly sales volume of 18,000 to 20,000 units by the end of the year [1] Market Performance - The Li MEGA, the company's first pure electric product, has surpassed 3,000 units in monthly deliveries, becoming the sales champion in both the 500,000 and above MPV and pure electric vehicle categories for two consecutive months [1] - This performance is seen as a foundation for the market expansion of the upcoming pure electric SUV family [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has set ambitious sales targets for its electric vehicles, aiming for stable monthly sales of 6,000 units for the Li Xiang i8 and 9,000 to 10,000 units for the Li Xiang i6, with overall monthly sales for its electric models projected to be between 18,000 and 20,000 units [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Li Auto reported revenue of 56.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, while net profit was 1.743 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.82% [3]. - The company anticipates a cautious outlook for the third quarter, projecting vehicle deliveries between 90,000 and 95,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 37.8% to 41.1% [3]. - Revenue for the third quarter is expected to drop sharply by 38.8% to 42.1%, falling to between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto's CEO, Li Xiang, acknowledged the company's current challenges, stating that the product iteration frequency is lower than that of competitors, which puts them at a disadvantage [3]. - To address these challenges, the company plans to accelerate the speed of technological platform and product updates, aiming to improve their competitive edge in the market [3]. - As of July 2025, Li Auto's cumulative sales reached 234,700 units, a year-on-year decline of 2.21%, with only 36.7% of the annual target of 640,000 units achieved [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is addressing misinformation regarding the pricing and sales of the Li Auto i6, emphasizing that accurate details will be provided during the official launch event [1][2]. Group 1 - The head of the third product line at Li Auto, Li Xinyang, has stated that many reports about the i6's price and sales figures are inaccurate [1]. - The company is committed to ensuring that the price of the i6 will reflect its value, aiming for customer satisfaction [1]. - Further information regarding the i6 will be disclosed during the upcoming launch event, and the company appreciates the public's patience and understanding [1]. Group 2 - The company encourages deeper discussions about its actual operational status and long-term fundamentals through a WeChat group, indicating a focus on community engagement [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that recent rumors regarding the pricing and sales expectations of the Li Auto i6 are false, as stated by the company's product line head, Li Xinyang [1][2] - Li Auto is reportedly considering a pricing strategy for the i6 that could position it below 230,000 yuan, which would be lower than the current cheapest model, the L6, priced at 249,800 yuan [2] - Li Xinyang emphasized that the company will ensure that the price aligns with the product's value, and further details will be announced at an official launch event [2]

每经AI快讯，9月1日，理想汽车发文，理想MEGA月交付正式突破3000台，连续两月达成50万以上 MPV、 50万以上纯电车型销量双冠军。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's Q3 performance guidance is significantly below market expectations, raising concerns about its future growth prospects [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Auto reported revenue of 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.7% [3]. - The net profit for Q2 was 1.1 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4% but a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 69.6% [3]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was 56.172 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 3% to 1.744 billion yuan [3]. Vehicle Sales - Li Auto delivered 204,000 vehicles in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [3]. - The vehicle sales revenue for the first half was 53.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Cash Reserves - As of the end of Q2 2025, Li Auto's cash reserves stood at 106.9 billion yuan, indicating a strong liquidity position [3]. Q3 Guidance - For Q3 2025, Li Auto expects vehicle sales to be between 90,000 and 95,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 41.1% to 37.8% [3]. - The projected revenue for Q3 is estimated to be between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% to 38.8% [3]. Market Context - In July 2025, Li Auto's sales were 30,700 units, down 39.74% year-on-year and 15.29% month-on-month [4]. - The CEO of Li Auto emphasized the need for faster technology and product updates to remain competitive in the market [4].

Summary of Li Auto Inc. (LI/2015.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto Inc. - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Key Points and Arguments 1. Earnings Performance - Li Auto reported a 2Q25 result with sales volume down 2% year-over-year, while the overall NEV retail market in China grew by 29% [1][2] - The company guided for 3Q25 volume and revenue to be over 40% below expectations, primarily due to weak sales of L series EREV models (L7/L8/L9), which declined by 32% year-to-date [1][2] 2. Sales Volume and Pricing - Expected sales volume for 3Q25 is 90k-95k units, a decrease of 17% quarter-over-quarter, with a projected increase to 115k units in 4Q25, driven by the i8 ramp-up and i6 launch [2][6] - Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to increase by 2% in 3Q25 due to a higher sales mix of the MEGA model, but decline by 3% in 4Q25 due to the i6 launch [2][6] 3. Margin Outlook - Vehicle gross margin is projected to be 19% in 3Q25, down from 19.4% in 2Q25, but expected to recover to 19.4% in 4Q25 as sales volume increases [2][6] - Operating margin is anticipated to decline to 0.4% in 3Q25, improving to 1.5% in 4Q25 [2][6] 4. Product Strategy - Li Auto plans to accelerate product and technology refresh cycles, targeting a 2-year iteration speed for new models, compared to the industry average of 4 years [7] - The company will enhance its assisted driving capabilities with the release of the VLA driver large model, which aims to improve driving comfort and parking experience [7] 5. Self-Developed Technology - Li Auto's self-developed ADAS chips are expected to be deployed on flagship models starting next year, which could reduce BOM costs and improve margins [7] 6. Global Expansion - 2025 marks the beginning of Li Auto's global strategy, with R&D centers established in Germany and the US, targeting markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe [7] 7. Financial Estimates - Net profit estimates for 2025E-27E have been lowered from Rmb12.6/13.5/15.7 billion to Rmb5.3/8.9/12.6 billion due to the weaker outlook for L series models [3] - The 12-month DCF-based target prices have been adjusted from US$35.3/HK$138 to US$30.9/HK$120, indicating a potential upside of 37%/31% [3][10] 8. Investment Thesis - Li Auto is rated as a "Buy" with a 5% NEV market share in China for 2024, supported by improvements in urban NOA performance and a focus on AI [11] - The company has the best net cash position among major Chinese OEMs, which could facilitate future R&D spending [11] 9. Risks - Key risks include worsening market demand, intensifying competition, and potential pressure on volume and margins [11][12] Additional Important Information - Li Auto experienced Rmb3.0 billion of operating cash outflow in 2Q25, attributed to a decrease in accounts payables and shortened payment terms to 60 days [7] - The company is ramping up production capacity for the i8 model, targeting cumulative deliveries of 8k-10k by the end of September [4][6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the NEV industry.

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector underperformed the market this week, with A-share automotive stocks rising only 1.7%, ranking 18th among Shenwan sub-industries, compared to the 4.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][2]. Weekly Data - In the week of August 18-24, 2025, passenger car sales reached 478,000 units, up 4.5% year-on-year and 9.3% month-on-month. New energy passenger car sales were 268,000 units, up 11.0% year-on-year and 8.1% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 56.0%, down 0.6 percentage points [2]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week was weaker than the market, with specific segments showing varied results: commercial trucks up 4.7%, auto parts up 1.9%, passenger cars up 1.4%, motorcycles and others up 1.2%, and commercial passenger vehicles up 0.9%. However, automotive services declined by 3.2% [1][2]. Company Performance - Notable performances were reported by companies such as SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors in Q2 2025. SAIC Motor's revenue was 158.73 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year and 12.7% month-on-month, with a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, up 334.6% year-on-year. Great Wall Motors reported revenue of 52.316 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year and 30.7% month-on-month, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 19.4% year-on-year and 161.9% month-on-month [3]. New Model Orders - Several new models have shown strong order performance, with significant pre-sale numbers: Great Wall Tank 500 secured 12,257 orders in 2 hours; AITO M8 electric version received over 7,000 orders in 2 hours; and XPeng P7 surpassed 10,000 orders in 7 minutes. Upcoming models include AITO M7, SAIC's H5, NIO ES8, and Geely's Zeekr 9X, expected to boost sales further [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key stocks in the automotive sector, including Geely, XPeng, Li Auto, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Bertley, Top Group, New Spring, Hu Guang, and Chunfeng Power [2]. - For the parts sector, recommendations include intelligent driving companies like Bertley and Horizon Robotics, and new energy vehicle supply chain companies like Xingyu and Hu Guang [5]. - In the motorcycle segment, the report recommends leading companies like Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [6]. - For tires, the recommendation includes Sailun Tire and Senki Lin [7]. - In heavy trucks, the report suggests focusing on China National Heavy Duty Truck [8].