主品牌韧性增长+户外品牌持续高增，加速 海外市场布局 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，我们调整了 25-26 年的盈利预测（上调了收入，下调了毛利率）并引入了 27 年的盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.82、5.54 和 6.24 元（原 25- 26 为 4.92 和 5.64 元），参考可比公司，我们维持公司 2025 年 21 倍 PE 估值，对应 目标价 108.31 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：流行风尚变化、市场竞争加剧、全球运动服饰消费减速等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,370 | 86,449 | 95,412 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,525 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [1][8] Core Views - In 2024, Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 70.826 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.596 billion yuan, up 52.4% year-on-year [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share, with an annual payout ratio of 51.4% [1][3] - The outdoor sports brand revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan [1][8] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the e-commerce channel revenue grew by 21.8%, accounting for 35.1% of total revenue, while offline channels showed slower growth [3][4] - The Anta brand revenue increased by 10.6% to 33.522 billion yuan, while FILA brand revenue grew by 6.1% to 26.626 billion yuan [4][5] - The overall revenue from other brands surpassed 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 53.7% [5][6] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Anta Sports decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.2%, while the operating profit margin fell by 1.2 percentage points to 23.4% [7][8] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 4.99, 5.57, and 6.35 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.1, 16.2, and 14.2 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders, including the impact of the joint venture AMER, was 15.60 billion RMB, a significant increase of 52.4% [5][6] - The company continues to leverage its multi-brand strategy, with expectations for high-quality growth across its brands in 2025 [14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In 2024, Anta Sports reported a revenue of 70.83 billion RMB, with a net profit of 15.60 billion RMB, reflecting a 52.4% increase when including AMER's impact [5][6] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS for 2024 was 5.55 RMB, with a proposed final cash dividend of 1.18 HKD per share, leading to an annual payout ratio of 51.4% [5] - Profit Margins: The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.2%, while the operating profit margin was 23.4%, down 1.2 percentage points [9][11] Brand Performance Summary - Brand Revenue Growth: In 2024, the main brand Anta grew by 10.6%, FILA by 6.1%, and other brands by 53.7%. Online sales increased by 21.8% [7][8] - Retail Performance: The retail performance of Anta and FILA showed resilience, with Anta's revenue growth in the first half of 2024 at 13.5% and 8.1% in the second half [7][8] Future Outlook - Revenue Projections: For 2025, Anta expects retail revenue growth of high single digits for the Anta brand, mid-single digits for FILA, and over 30% for other brands [14] - Store Expansion Plans: The company plans to expand its store count significantly, targeting 6,900-7,000 stores for the Anta brand and 2,100-2,200 for FILA by 2025 [14] - Cash Position: As of the end of 2024, Anta had a net cash position of 31.40 billion RMB, indicating strong liquidity and risk resilience [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 117.98 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 70.83 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and a net profit of RMB 15.60 billion, which is a 52.4% increase year-on-year. Excluding one-time gains from AS listing and placement, the profit was RMB 11.93 billion, up 16.5% year-on-year, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's market share in the Chinese sports footwear and apparel market increased to 23% in 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry. The main brands continue to perform well, and the outdoor brand has sustained high growth [1][2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing a total of HKD 1.97 billion worth of shares since August 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the main brand revenue increased by 10.6% to RMB 33.52 billion, while FILA's revenue grew by 6.1% to RMB 26.63 billion. Other brands saw a significant increase of 53.7% to RMB 10.68 billion. Online revenue rose by 21.8%, accounting for 35.1% of total revenue [2]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin footwear products and e-commerce business [3]. Expenses and Operational Efficiency - Advertising expenses increased by 0.8 percentage points to 9.0%, driven by increased spending on advertising, sponsorships, and store upgrades. R&D expenses rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% as the company continues to invest in innovation [3]. - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover of 123 days, with a cash flow generation capacity of RMB 13.2 billion [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 3.4% and 3.8% to RMB 13.36 billion and RMB 15.01 billion, respectively. A new estimate for 2027 net profit is set at RMB 16.79 billion [4]. - The target price is based on a PE ratio of 23x for 2025, reflecting the company's significant market share and multi-brand operational capabilities [4].

2025 年 3 月 20 日 公司研究 24 年主营业绩健康增长，多品牌龙头优势继续凸显 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：93.15 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 安踏体育 恒生指数 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 4.2 | -7.0 | -25.6 | | 绝对 | 9.7 | 15.9 | 20.8 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 24Q4 各品牌流水环比改善，25 年看好多品 牌高质量增长（2025-01-09） Q3 安踏及 FILA 流水走弱，Q4 冬装旺季期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6][7] Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 70.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [6] - The company aims for revenue growth in 2025 to be in the high single digits to double digits [6] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 51.4% for 2024, slightly up from 50.9% in 2023 [6] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 62.36 billion RMB in 2023, 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, and 77.16 billion RMB in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, and 8.9% respectively [5][9] - Net profit is expected to be 10.24 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 15.60 billion RMB in 2024, and then decreasing to 14.08 billion RMB in 2025 [5][9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.57 RMB in 2023, 5.37 RMB in 2024, and 4.84 RMB in 2025 [5][10] Brand Performance - The Anta brand generated revenue of 33.52 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [6] - The FILA brand's revenue grew by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB, with significant sales in footwear [6] - Other brands contributed 10.68 billion RMB, with Descente and Kolon showing strong growth rates of 35% and 60% respectively [6] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a multi-brand global strategy, with plans to enhance its presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [6] - The management has set a target for overseas business contributions to reach 15% within five years [6] - The company expects Anta, FILA, and other brands to achieve high single-digit, mid-single-digit, and over 30% growth respectively in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anta Sports [3][40]. Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to achieve a core net profit growth of 16.5% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.6% to 70.83 billion RMB, excluding non-cash profits from Amer Sports [1][7]. - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the Chinese sports consumption market, with management projecting high single-digit growth for the Anta brand and over 30% growth for other brands in 2025 [2][39]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2024, Anta's revenue is projected to reach 70.83 billion RMB, with a core net profit of 11.93 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.5% increase [1][4]. - **Brand Performance**: Revenue from Anta, FILA, and other brands is expected to be 33.5 billion RMB, 26.6 billion RMB, and 10.7 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 10.6%, 6.1%, and 53.7% [2][7]. - **Profit Margins**: The overall gross margin is projected to be 62.2%, with a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, while the operating profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.2 percentage points to 23.4% [8][29]. Brand-Specific Insights - **Anta Brand**: Revenue is expected to grow by 10.6% to 33.5 billion RMB, with a focus on e-commerce and new retail formats [18][19]. - **FILA Brand**: Revenue growth of 6.1% is anticipated, driven by professional sports series and e-commerce channels, despite a decline in profit margins [22][23]. - **Other Brands**: Significant growth of 53.7% is expected, with Descente and Kolon achieving strong performance [24][26]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company maintains a robust cash flow with a net cash position of 31.4 billion RMB and a dividend payout ratio of 51.4% [15][39]. - Operating cash inflow is projected at approximately 16.74 billion RMB, indicating a healthy net cash ratio [15][39]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 13.48 billion RMB, 15.46 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [3][39]. - The reasonable valuation is adjusted to 113-118 HKD, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 103-112 HKD [3][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Anta (2020 HK) [2][6][7] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 70.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The guidance for 2025 indicates revenue growth in the high single to double digits [6][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global multi-brand strategy, with significant growth expected in Southeast Asia and an expansion target for overseas business to contribute 15% within five years [6][9] - The report projects a target price of 113.3 HKD, corresponding to a 22x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price [6][7] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 62.36 billion RMB in 2023, 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, and 77.16 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, and 8.9% respectively [5][9] - Net profit is expected to be 10.24 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 15.60 billion RMB in 2024, but projected to decrease to 14.08 billion RMB in 2025 [5][9] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 50%, with a proposed final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share for 2024 [6][9] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue grew by 10.6% to 33.52 billion RMB, while FILA brand revenue increased by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB, indicating strong performance in the high-end market [6][9] - Other brands contributed significantly, with a 53.7% increase in revenue to 10.68 billion RMB, driven by brands like Descente and Kolon [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its product mix by increasing the proportion of lower-margin footwear products, which has led to a slight decline in gross margin to 62.2% [6][9] - The management is optimistic about the upcoming sports events in 2024, which are expected to boost advertising and promotional expenditures [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The retail sales of clothing in January-February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, significantly improving compared to the decline in November-December 2024 [2][13]. - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD, and Douyin reported strong growth in outdoor, women's wear, and home textiles, with sales growth rates of +48%, +31%, and +15% respectively in January-February 2025 [2][16]. - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports increased by 16.2% and 20.8% year-on-year in February, indicating a recovery in the export market [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has outperformed the broader market since February, with notable stock price increases for companies like 361 Degrees (+18.67%) and TBOC (+16.02%) [1][12]. Brand Apparel Insights - Key brands such as KOLON, Biem.l.fdlkk, and Semir experienced sales growth exceeding 50% in January-February 2025, while brands like Salomon and HLA saw growth rates above 30% [2][17]. - The report highlights a positive trend in brand performance, with several companies expected to show improved revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - The report indicates that while the first quarter of 2024 had a high base, most manufacturing companies expect revenue growth in the high single to double digits for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - Companies like Rihong and Juyuan are expanding their production capabilities, with Rihong's revenue in February 2025 up by 20.73% year-on-year [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with new growth drivers, such as Purcotton and HLA, and recommends companies with strong market share growth potential like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 118.8, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 97.9 [2][5]. Core Insights - Despite facing significant pressure on profit margins in the short term, Anta's revenue from its main brand is expected to steadily expand, with other brands maintaining rapid growth. The contribution from Amer Sports is projected to significantly increase, supporting a high growth rate in core net profit by 2025. The multi-brand strategy is anticipated to continue driving overall revenue expansion for the company [1][7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 78,838 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [9][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 15,596 million in 2024 to RMB 13,965 million in 2025, indicating a decline of 10.5% [9][13]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 62.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin slightly declining to 23.2% [11][12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2025, while Fila is projected to grow in the mid-single digits. Other brands like Descente and Kolon are anticipated to exceed 30% growth [7][8]. - The online sales channel is expected to continue to grow, contributing to the overall revenue but also leading to increased discounting pressures on margins [7][8]. Market Strategy - Anta plans to increase market investments in 2025, focusing on expanding the new retail formats, enhancing overseas market presence, and increasing product launches. The company aims for overseas revenue to account for 15% within five years [7][8]. - The multi-brand strategy is expected to be a key driver for long-term revenue growth, with Descente and Kolon brands showing strong growth momentum [7][8].