证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 李宁（02331.HK） 24Q1 流水点评：流水小幅增长，库存及折扣 2024 年 04月 25日 有所改善 证券分析师 汤军 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600517050001 [Table_EPS] 021-60199793 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E tangj@dwzq.com.cn 营业总收入（百万元） 25,803 27,598 29,191 31,415 33,954 证券分析师 赵艺原 同比(%) 14.31 6.96 5.77 7.62 8.09 执业证书：S0600522090003 归母净利润（百万元） 4,064 3,187 3,390 3,775 4,015 zhaoyy@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) 1.32 (21.58) 6.37 11.37 6.36 股价走势 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 1.57 1.23 1.31 1.46 1.55 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 11.51 14.67 13.79 12.38 11.64 李宁 恒生指数 [ [TT aab bl le e ...

Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 4 月 24 日 公司动态分析 李宁（2331.HK） 证券研究报告 运动鞋服 库存恢复健康态势，维持全年业绩指引 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 事件：李宁公布2024Q1经营情况，全平台零售流水同比低单位数增长，其中线 下同比录得低单位数下降，电商同比录得20-30%低段增长，整体表现与市场预 目标价格： 28.3 港元 期大致相符，电商表现好于预期。综合考虑，我们预测2024/2025/2026年EPS 现价(2024-4-23)： 18.5港元 为1.30/1.45/1.59元，目标价28.3港元，维持“买入”评级。 报告摘要 电商渠道超预期，跑步品类表现亮眼 24Q1李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）全平台零 总市值(百万港元) 47,812.89 售流水同比低单位数增长，主要受同期高基数影响，整体符合公司预期。分渠道 流通市值(百万港元) 47,812.89 总股本(百万股) 2,584.48 来看，线下渠道（包括直营及批发）同比录得低单位数下降，其中直营同比中单 流通股本(百万股) 2,584.48 位数增长，批发同比中单位数下降，直营表现好于批发主要由于直营 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 2024年04月23日 李宁（02331.HK） 流水平稳，营运健康，符合预期 公司发布2024Q1经营情况公告，终端流水表现平稳。根据公司披露2024Q1李 买入（维持） 宁成人流水同比增长低单位数，其中同店销售下降中单位数，成人门店同比 股票信息 2023Q1末净开8家至6214家；我们预计李宁儿童流水同比增长个位数，或优于 成人。在同期相对较高的基数下，公司终端销售表现平稳，符合预期。 行业 服装 李宁成人：Q1线下客流待恢复，电商渠道销售表现优异。2024Q1李宁成人全渠 前次评级 买入 道流水同比增长低单位数，其中直营流水同比增长中单位数，批发流水同比下降 4月22日收盘价(港元) 17.50 中单位数，电商流水同比增长20%-30%低段，我们拆分同店和开店来看： 总市值(百万港元) 45,228.41 总股本(百万股) 2,584.48 1）同店：Q1线下直营奥莱渠道增速领先，电商快速增长。根据公司披露2024Q1 直营/批发门店同店销售同比分别下滑低单位数/中双位数，我们判断线下同店销 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 售的下滑一方面由于同期基数较高，另一方面当前消 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 sales performance met expectations, with the main brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) achieving low single-digit growth in retail revenue. Online sales grew by 20-30%, while offline channels saw a decline [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channels and product offerings, particularly in the running shoe and fitness categories, which have shown strong growth. The basketball category is currently under adjustment [3]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with improvements in discount rates contributing to better average selling prices (ASP). The company expects continued improvement in discounts and stable ASP moving forward [3]. - Management maintains a conservative growth outlook for 2024, targeting mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit profit margins, supported by new product launches and seasonal sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 258 billion RMB in 2024 to 344 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [4][9]. - Net profit is projected to recover from 31.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.7 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 48.4% to 49.2% over the forecast period, indicating effective cost management [4][9].

M N 24 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Healthy outlook after a beat in retail discounts Li Ning may not be our top pick in the sportswear sector. But thanks to potential Target Price HK$22.17 sequential acceleration in sales growth and decent margin improvement (better (Previous TP HK$24.86) discounts and operating leverage), we are still positive on Li Ning and maintain Up/Downside 19.9% BUY with TP of HK$ 22.17, based on 15x FY24E P/E. Current ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, the company's overall revenue increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline sales declining slightly while online sales grew by 20%-30% [1][2] - The same-store sales (SSSG) decreased in Q1, with direct sales and wholesale down by low single digits and mid-double digits respectively, while e-commerce saw a growth of 20%-30% [1][2] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to around 4.0, with nearly 90% of inventory being new products within six months [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct sales performance was better than wholesale, driven by outlet stores, with same-store sales for direct and wholesale both experiencing double-digit declines [1][2] - The total number of stores decreased by 26 compared to the end of last year, with direct stores increasing by 1 and wholesale stores decreasing by 27 [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on Southeast Asia for overseas expansion, with plans to open stores in markets like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines [6][7] - The company aims to maintain a steady growth in the domestic market while exploring overseas opportunities as a supplementary strategy [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and marketing strategies, particularly in professional categories like basketball and running, while also focusing on low-tier cities [6][13] - The marketing budget will be directed towards professional categories, leveraging resources from CBA and other events to strengthen brand presence [6][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the annual performance guidance, with expectations of low double-digit net profit margin and mid-single-digit revenue growth [4][5] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in sales performance in the second half of the year, especially in Q4, due to lower base effects [5] Other Important Information - The company is not planning significant channel expansions this year, with a focus on product upgrades and maintaining healthy inventory levels [9][11] - The new CMO has been instrumental in integrating marketing resources and enhancing brand strategy, with plans for significant promotional activities around the upcoming Olympics [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the status of wholesale revenue and inventory? - Management indicated that both wholesale and direct sales have healthy inventory levels, with a turnover ratio of 4-4.5, and no adjustments to Q2 shipments are planned [3] Question: How are the new product lines performing? - New products like the "Ultra Light 21" and "Red Rabbit 7" have shown good growth, with the "Red Rabbit" series particularly popular among students, achieving nearly 50% growth year-on-year [3] Question: What are the expectations for the semi-annual report? - Management maintained the annual performance guidance, expecting revenue growth to be lower in the first half due to high base effects [4] Question: What is the outlook for the e-commerce channel? - E-commerce performance exceeded expectations in Q1, driven by a return of online traffic and effective price control, with hopes for profit margins to recover to over 20% [12] Question: How is the company addressing competition in lower-tier cities? - The company has a foundation in lower-tier markets and plans to expand product offerings to meet local demand, focusing on running and basketball shoes [6][13]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 纺织服装业 [ Table_Main[李I Tnaf 宁bol]e （_Ti 2tl 3e] 3 1） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 17.50 Q1 流水符合预期，预计 2024 年前低后高 2024.04.23 海 ——2024Q1 经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 王佳(分析师) 曹冬青(研究助理) 赵博(研究助理) 52周内股价区间（港元） 15.12-56.90 当前股本（百万股） 2,584 公 010-83939781 0755-23976666 010-83939831 当前市值（百万港元） 45,228 司 wangjia025750@gtjas.com caodongqing026730@gtjas.com zhaobo026729@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880524010001 S0880122070070 S0880122070053 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 Q1公司流水符合预期，预计后续流水增速有望 ...

纺织服饰 李宁（ ） 买入 维持 02331.HK -A( ) 24Q1 经营表现符合公司预期，维持全年业绩指引 2024年4月23日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  公司披露2024年第一季度运营情况。24Q1，李宁（不含李宁YOUNG）全平台零 售流水同比增长低单位数，全平台同店销售同比下降中单位数，截至24Q1末，李宁（不 含李宁YOUNG）门店共6214家，较年初净减少26家。 事件点评  24Q1公司零售流水平稳增长，零售折扣同比改善。零售流水方面，24Q1李宁（不 来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 含李宁YOUNG）全渠道零售流水同比增长低单位数，其中，线下渠道同比下降低单位 数，电商渠道同比增长20%-30%低段。公司1季度流水表现符合预期。零售折扣方面， 市场数据：2024年4月22日 线下渠道与电商渠道零售折扣同比均改善低单位数，其中线下直营渠道零售折扣同比改 收盘价（港元）： 17.500 善中单位数。库存周转方面，截至2024Q1末，公司线下直营与批发渠道库存周转均处 年内最高/最低（港元）： 59.050/14.940 于4-4.5个月区间，6个月以内新品占比接近90 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月23日 李宁（02331.HK） 买入 第一季度流水小幅增长，零售折扣同比收窄  公司研究·海外公司快评  纺织服饰·服装家纺  投资评级：买入（维持评级） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 关竣尹 0755-81982834 guanjunyin@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523110002 事项： 公司公告：1、零售表现：截至2024年3月31日止第一季度，李宁销售点（不包括李宁YOUNG）于整个平台之 零售流水按年录得低单位数增长。就渠道而言，线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得低单位数下降，其中零售（直 接经营）渠道录得中单位数增长，批发（特许经销商）渠道录得中单位数下降；电子商务虚拟店铺业务录得20%-30% 低段增长。2、销售点数量：截至2024年3月31日，于中国，李宁销售点数量（不包括李宁YOUNG）共计6214 个，本年迄今净减少26个。在净减少的26个销售点中，零售业务净增加1个，批发业务净减少27个。李宁 YOUN ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年4月23日 港元17.50 港元21.00 +20.0% 李宁 (2331 HK) 1 季度符合指引；但各品类表现分化  1季度业绩符合预期：李宁2024 年1季度零售额整体低个位数增长，对比 个股评级 公司指引的全年同比增长中个位数，符合预期，因1季度有高基数（渠道 中性 重开），而4季度将有低基数（公司大幅削减对经销商的订单以去库存）， 全年增长有可能前低后高。按渠道划分，线上销售在1季度出现良好复苏 1年股价表现 （超20%增长），受得物（同比翻倍，目前占线上销售额接近20%）及抖 音（双位数增长，占线上销售额的 20%）等新平台带动；而线下销售弱于 2331 HK 恒生指数 10% 预期（同比下降低个位数），因正价店（自营店和加盟店）同店销售下降 0% -10% 超过10%，而奥特莱斯店录得增长。线下折扣改善了低个位数百分比，渠 -20% -30% 道库存有改善（4.5 倍）。 -40% -50% -60%  销售指引可能保守，但利润率仍面临压力：管理层重申之前的全年财务指 -70% -80% 引，即收入同比增长中个位数，净利润率低 ...