Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in sales for Q3, with a focus on promoting Olympic and technology-related marketing initiatives. The short-term sales impact from these initiatives is expected to be limited, but there is optimism for long-term brand recovery [8] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96%. However, net profit is expected to decline by 21.58% to 3,187 million [1] - The company is increasing its store count, with 6,132 main brand stores and 1,480 young brand stores as of the end of Q3 [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 28,676 million in 2024, 28,834 million in 2025, 30,529 million in 2026, and 32,074 million in 2027, with growth rates of 3.90%, 0.55%, 5.88%, and 5.06% respectively [1] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2,313 million, reflecting a significant decline of 23.24% compared to the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.17 in 2024, 0.89 in 2025, 1.00 in 2026, and 1.13 in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 16.95 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 39,948.28 million HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.46 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Total Energy Li Ning Li Yongbo Cup 3V3 Badminton National Finals was held at the Li Ning Center in Beijing, with Zhejiang Xinxing Badminton Club winning the championship by defeating their opponent 2:1 [1] - A survey report released by Li Ning at the finals indicated that 86.63% of badminton enthusiasts can reach the nearest venue within 15 minutes, and 70.55% frequently participate in events [1] - The report also highlighted that 73.66% of participants consider "professional organization processes" as a core factor in evaluating their event experience [1] Group 2 - The event featured a technology interactive experience area presented by the Li Ning Sports Science Research Center, which included activities like speed challenges and agility challenges, allowing amateur players to interact with world champions [1] - The integration of professional technology equipment into the event provided participants with enjoyment and precise assessments of their performance [1]

Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has intensified competition in the sports market, with major brands offering significant discounts to attract consumers [1][11] - Nike leads the sales rankings on Tmall, promoting discounts with slogans like "Not just 50% off," while other brands like Adidas and Anta are also heavily discounting their products [1][2] Discount Strategies - Nike's flagship model, Vaporfly 4, is priced at approximately 1409 yuan after discounts, with a discount rate of about 8.3% on Taobao and 20% on JD [7][8] - Adidas's Adios Pro4 shows weaker discounting, with rates around 9.1% on Taobao and 9.3% on JD, while remaining at full price on Douyin [7][8] - Anta's C202 6Pro and Li Ning's Feidian 5 Elite offer more substantial discounts, with rates of 8.5% and 6.9% respectively, indicating a trend of greater discounts from domestic brands [8][9] Market Performance - Overall, domestic brands appear to be offering more significant discounts compared to international competitors like Nike and Adidas, which are struggling to maintain their market positions [9][11] - Li Ning reported a decline in retail sales, while Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% to 1.512 billion USD [11][12] - Adidas experienced a 10% revenue growth in Greater China, but still faces pressure as its growth rate has slowed [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The market share of Adidas in China has decreased from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while Nike's share has also declined but remains the highest at 16.2% [12] - Anta and Li Ning have seen slight increases in market share, indicating a shift towards domestic brands [12] - The intense discounting strategies reflect the pressure on major brands to maintain sales amidst a challenging market environment [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense discounting strategies employed by major sports brands during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, highlighting the competitive landscape and the challenges faced by these companies in terms of sales growth and market share [1][7][9]. Discount Strategies - Nike leads the discounting efforts with a slogan "Not just 50% off," offering shoes at prices as low as 200+ yuan, creating a comprehensive discount matrix across channels [1] - Adidas focuses on popular items with a "starting from 50% off" strategy on Tmall, along with additional coupons [1] - Anta promotes discounts of up to 60% off on Tmall, while Li Ning offers similar discounts across multiple platforms, with JD.com providing additional member discounts [1] - Li Ning appears to have the largest overall discounting strategy among the brands [1][5]. Price Comparisons - Nike's flagship Vaporfly 4 is priced at 1409 yuan after discounts, with a discount rate of approximately 8.3% [3] - On JD.com, the same shoe can be purchased for 1369 yuan, reflecting a discount rate as low as 80% [4] - Adidas's Adios Pro4 shows weaker discounting, with rates around 9.1% to 9.3% across platforms [4]. - Anta's C202 6Pro has varying prices across platforms, with JD.com offering it at 1359 yuan after discounts [4]. - Li Ning's Feidian 5 Elite shows significant discounting, with rates as low as 6.9% [5]. Sales Performance - Li Ning reported a decline in retail sales, with a mid-single-digit percentage drop in the third quarter [7]. - Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% to 15.12 billion yuan for the latest fiscal quarter [7]. - Anta showed slight positive growth, but overall growth is under pressure [7]. - Adidas experienced a 10% revenue increase in Greater China, but still faces growth challenges [8]. Market Share Dynamics - Adidas's market share in China has decreased from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while Nike's share has slightly declined from 18.1% to 16.2% [8]. - Anta's market share increased from 9.8% to 10.5%, and Li Ning's share rose from 9.3% to 9.4% [8]. - The competitive dynamics among these brands correlate with their discounting strategies during the "Double Eleven" event [8]. Industry Challenges - The article highlights that the intense discounting reflects broader challenges in the industry, with sales contraction becoming a prevailing theme [7][9]. - Frequent discounting has impacted the financial performance of these companies, with Anta's gross margin declining by 0.7 percentage points [9]. - The rise of domestic brands has eroded the pricing power of established players like Nike [9].

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the sports market during the Double Eleven shopping festival is intensifying, with major brands like Nike, Adidas, Anta, and Li Ning offering significant discounts to attract consumers [1][5][7] Discount Strategies - Nike is promoting its products with a slogan "Not just 50% off," offering shoes at prices as low as 200+ yuan, creating a comprehensive discount matrix across all channels [1] - Adidas focuses on popular items with a "starting from 50% off" strategy on Tmall, along with additional coupons for larger purchases [1] - Anta is offering discounts of up to 60% on top of existing prices, while Li Ning has similar offers on both Tmall and JD [1] - Li Ning appears to have the largest overall discount, with flagship products like the Feidian 5 Elite seeing discounts of 260 yuan, resulting in a discount rate as low as 69% [2][4] Sales Performance - Despite the aggressive discounting, major brands are facing sales challenges. Li Ning reported a decline in retail sales, particularly in offline channels, while Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% [7][8] - Anta's performance is slightly better, showing low single-digit growth, while Adidas experienced a 10% revenue increase in the third quarter, but still faces growth pressures [8][11] - The market share dynamics show that Nike remains the leader, but its share has decreased from 18.1% to 16.2%, while Anta and Li Ning have seen slight increases in their market shares [8] Price War Implications - The ongoing price war among major brands is impacting their profitability, with Anta's gross margin declining by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% [11] - Frequent discounts are affecting overall performance, as seen in the declining net profits for both Li Ning and Nike [11][12] - The rise of domestic brands is eroding the pricing power of established players like Nike, leading to intensified competition and further price reductions [12][13]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the sports market during the Double Eleven shopping festival is intensifying, with major brands offering significant discounts to attract consumers [1][5][14] Discount Strategies - Nike leads with a slogan "Not just 50% off," offering shoes at prices as low as 200+ yuan, creating a comprehensive discount strategy across all channels [1] - Adidas focuses on popular items with a "starting from 50% off" strategy, along with additional coupons for larger purchases [1] - Anta and Li Ning both offer discounts of up to 60% on top of existing prices, with Li Ning also providing additional coupons on platforms like JD [1] - Overall, Li Ning appears to have the largest discount offerings among the brands [4][5] Price Comparisons - Nike's flagship Vaporfly 4 shoes are priced at approximately 1409 yuan after discounts, with a discount rate of about 8.3% on Taobao [3] - Adidas Adios Pro4 shows weaker discount rates, with Taobao at about 9.1% and JD at 9.3% [3] - Anta's C202 6Pro has varying prices across platforms, with JD offering the best discount at 1359 yuan [4] - Li Ning's Feidian 5 Elite shows a significant discount, with a final price of 999 yuan on Taobao and JD, resulting in a discount rate of about 6.9% [4] Sales Performance - The leading sports brands are facing challenges in growth, with Li Ning reporting a decline in retail sales and Nike's revenue in Greater China dropping by 10% [7][9] - Anta shows slight positive growth, but overall, the market is under pressure [7][9] - Adidas reported a 10% increase in revenue for the third quarter, but still faces growth challenges compared to previous periods [9] Market Dynamics - Frequent discounts are impacting the profitability of these brands, with Anta's gross margin declining by 0.7 percentage points [12] - The rise of domestic brands is eroding the pricing power of established players like Nike [13] - The ongoing price war among these brands may extend beyond the Double Eleven period, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14]

Group 1 - The Li Ning brand showcased its presence at the Tmall Double 11 Super Launch event in Shanghai, coinciding with the 100-day countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, emphasizing the Olympic spirit and culture [1] - Tmall's mascot "Mao Tiantian" wore a replica of Li Ning's 1992 award ceremony outfit and interacted with the official mascots of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, Tina and Milo, highlighting the collaboration between the brand and the Olympic event [3] - Li Ning officially launched the "Gold Standard" product line, which integrates top-tier sports technology with minimalist design, aimed at promoting high-quality living across various scenarios, serving as a key vehicle for conveying sports spirit [3] Group 2 - The "Gold Standard" fashion show was themed "Heart Fire, Glory," featuring the Chinese sports delegation's award equipment for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics as a highlight of the event [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on overall revenue due to warmer weather, leading to a year-on-year decline in total channel revenue in the mid-single digits for Q3 2025, while maintaining a focus on marketing investments for the Olympics and product innovation [1][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total channel revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend observed from July to September [1]. - Breakdown of revenue by channel shows offline channels experiencing a high single-digit decline, with wholesale channels down significantly and direct sales channels down in the mid-single digits; online channels, however, saw a high single-digit growth [1]. Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts have deepened across channels, with overall channel discounts increasing in the low single digits year-on-year; the wholesale channel saw a slight increase, while direct sales and e-commerce channels experienced a more significant increase [2]. - Inventory levels are manageable, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at 5-6 months; it is expected to be controlled at 4-5 months by year-end [2]. Store Expansion - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores from the previous quarter and 15 stores from the previous year; direct stores decreased by 46 from the previous year, while wholesale stores increased by 61 [2]. Product Innovation - The company is actively promoting new products, including the launch of the superbeng capsule for key products like the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9, as well as new basketball and outdoor products [2]. Marketing Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts, including the launch of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics gear for the Chinese sports delegation and collaborations for skiing events [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company aims to maintain revenue stability through 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively; net profits are projected at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, with a strong buy recommendation maintained [3].

Core Insights - The Beijing Marathon is set to take place on November 2, highlighting the growing popularity of marathon events as a part of urban culture and tourism [1] - The demand for running gear and services has surged, with domestic brands gaining traction in the market [1][3] - The marathon is becoming a significant platform for brands to enhance their visibility and engage with consumers [1][4] Equipment Segment - Various running shoe brands are actively promoting their products, with Adidas and Li Ning recruiting elite runners for promotional events [3] - In the 2022 Beijing Marathon, international brands dominated the footwear market, with Nike at 45.37% and Adidas at 28.02%, while domestic brands like Jordan and Xtep had lower shares [3] - A shift occurred in 2024, with Xtep leading among sub-three-hour runners at 22.5%, followed closely by Adidas at 22.4% [4] - The competition among brands is intensifying, with sponsorships and collaborations with running groups becoming key marketing strategies [4] Consumer Behavior - The running community is increasingly spending on apparel and wearable technology, with expenditures on running clothing and shoes rising from 29.98% in 2023 to 35.02% in 2024 [5] - Li Ning's footwear accounted for 55.6% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, with a 15% increase in retail sales for its running category [5] New Professions - The emergence of marathon pacers has created a new service market, with earnings ranging from 500 to 6000 yuan per event depending on the service level [6] - Marathon photographers are also becoming prominent, with income varying based on their collaboration with brands or event organizers [7][8] Tourism and Logistics - Hotel bookings in Beijing surged by 28% around the marathon, with areas near the marathon route seeing a 52% increase in reservations [12] - Logistics companies like SF Express are implementing comprehensive support systems for the marathon, including storage and delivery of runners' gear and supplies [14][15] Commercial Integration - Local businesses are enhancing their offerings around the marathon, with food and retail services tailored to meet the needs of participants [10][11] - The integration of sports, culture, and commerce is evident in various initiatives aimed at creating a unique consumer experience during the marathon [10]

Core Insights - The running events in China are evolving into a new marketing platform for shoe brands, with the China Athletics Association reporting 749 running events in 2024, attracting a total of 7.0486 million participants [1][3] Running Events and Market Dynamics - The upcoming Beijing Marathon has seen brands like Adidas and Li Ning actively recruiting elite runners, offering incentives such as specialized running shoes and guaranteed race entries [3] - Historical data from the 2022 Beijing Marathon shows that international brands dominated the shoe market, with Nike at 45.37% and Adidas at 28.02%, while domestic brands like Jordan and Xtep held only 6.79% each [3] - In 2024, a shift occurred with Xtep leading the shoe market among sub-three-hour finishers at 22.5%, closely followed by Adidas at 22.4%, and Hongxing Erke surpassing Nike for the first time [4] Technological Advancements in Shoe Manufacturing - The core components of running shoes, including the outsole, midsole, and carbon plate, are critical to competition, with international brands historically leading in technology [4][5] - Domestic brands have made significant technological advancements, with Peak introducing its signature technology in 2018 and Li Ning launching innovative materials in 2019 [5] Marketing Strategies and Sponsorships - Sponsorships and collaborations with running groups have become essential marketing strategies for shoe brands, with Nike and Adidas leveraging partnerships to enhance brand visibility [6] - In 2023, Xtep sponsored 24 marathons, including the prestigious Xiamen Marathon, indicating a strong commitment to the running market [6] Market Growth and Sales Performance - The running market is expanding, with brands competing for a growing base of casual runners, which is reflected in sales data [6][7] - Li Ning's footwear accounted for 55.6% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, with a 15% increase in retail sales for its running category [6] - Xtep's Saucony brand reported over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales, highlighting the competitive landscape [6]