24 年业绩符合预期，25 年起加大投入追求 中长期高质量发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整 24-26 年盈利预测，预计 24-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.17、0.99 和 1.15 元（原 1.2、1.37 和 1.54 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 20 倍的 PE 估 值，目标价为 21.19 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：运动服饰消费低于预期、终端去库存进度和新产品推广不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,803 | 27,598 | 28,676 | 28,945 | 31,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,415 | 4,256 | 4,110 | 3,462 | 4,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Ning with a new target price of HK$ 19.81, reflecting an upside of 15.4% from the current price of HK$ 17.16 [3][17]. Core Insights - Li Ning's FY24 results were in line with market expectations, with a slight improvement in 4Q24 operating numbers. The company has provided conservative guidance for FY25E, targeting flat sales growth and a high single-digit net profit margin [1][14]. - The management anticipates stable growth in average selling price (ASP) and volume for FY25E, with a focus on improving the lifestyle segment while maintaining growth in running and basketball categories [1][12]. - The report indicates that the worst may be over for Li Ning, as early trends in 1Q25E show improvement, despite the high current valuation [1][14]. Financial Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB 28.7 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 5% to RMB 3.0 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [2][14]. - For FY25E, revenue is expected to remain flat at RMB 28.7 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 2.67 billion, reflecting a decline of 11.3% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report revises down net profit forecasts for FY25E and FY26E by 23% and 20%, respectively, due to slower retail sales growth and increased advertising and promotion expenses [1][12]. Earnings Revision - The report shows a significant downward revision in earnings estimates, with FY25E revenue revised down by 5% to RMB 28.68 billion and net profit adjusted down by 22.9% to RMB 2.67 billion [12][13]. - Gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly to 49.6% in FY25E, while operating profit margin is projected to decline to 11.6% due to increased A&P expenses [12][16]. Market Position and Performance - Li Ning's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 44.9 billion, with a P/E ratio of 16x for FY25, which is considered relatively high [5][17]. - The company has a shareholding structure with significant stakes held by Viva China Holdings (10.4%) and GIC Pte Ltd. (5.0%) [6]. Sales Growth and Channel Performance - The report highlights that retail sales growth rebounded to high single digits in 4Q24, improving from a mid-single-digit decline in 3Q24 [14]. - Management expects improvements in retail discounts and a better channel mix, particularly with online sales, which typically yield higher operating margins [1][12]. Segment Performance - For FY25E, management projects a decline in clothing sales by 3% while expecting growth in shoe sales by 1.7% and equipment sales by 5% [16]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on enhancing its lifestyle segment while maintaining its core categories of running and basketball [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's 2024 financial report shows a revenue of 28.676 billion RMB, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, but a net profit decline of 5.5% to 3.013 billion RMB, attributed to impairment of investment properties. The overall gross margin improved to 49.4% [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.676 billion RMB, up from 27.598 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 3.9% increase [3]. - Net profit decreased to 3.013 billion RMB from 3.187 billion RMB, marking a 5.5% decline [3]. - Gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 49.4% [3]. - EBITDA increased by 3.6% to 6.379 billion RMB [3]. - Basic earnings per share fell by 5.1% to 116.98 RMB [3]. Market Strategy - Li Ning emphasizes a "single brand, multiple categories" strategy, focusing on core categories such as running, basketball, and training, which accounted for 64% of retail sales in 2024 [4][5]. - The company aims to deepen its core categories while maintaining its professional sports brand positioning [4][5]. Product Performance - Retail sales for running increased by 25%, contributing 28% to total retail sales, with over 10.6 million pairs sold [5]. - Basketball retail sales declined by 21%, as the company aims to protect the core value of the category [6][7]. Channel Management - Li Ning's offline retail faced challenges, with daily customer traffic down 10% to 20%, leading to a slight decrease in overall offline retail sales [14]. - The company closed 123 main brand stores while increasing Li Ning YOUNG stores by 40, resulting in a total of 7,585 sales points [15]. - E-commerce sales increased by 2 percentage points to 31% of total revenue, with direct online sales growing by 10% to 20% [15]. R&D and Inventory Management - R&D expenditure accounted for 2.4% of total revenue, with total investment exceeding 3.5 billion RMB over the past decade [17]. - Inventory turnover days increased by one day to 64 days, maintaining a leading position in the industry [18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable revenue growth for 2025, with net profit margins expected to increase in the high single digits [19]. - Li Ning has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee from 2025 to 2028, which may enhance its brand reputation and market opportunities [19].

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is a significant year for sports, with Li Ning demonstrating strong financial performance and brand improvement, positioning itself for future growth as a new sponsor for the Chinese Olympic Committee [1][8]. Financial Performance - Li Ning achieved revenue of 28.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2]. - The net profit reached 3.013 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 10.5% [2]. - Gross profit was 14.156 billion RMB, up 6.0% from the previous year, with an overall gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. Operational Highlights - Li Ning's operating cash flow was 5.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, indicating strong risk resilience and efficient supply chain management [3]. - The inventory turnover days were 64 days, with a cash cycle of 35 days, reflecting healthy inventory management [3]. - R&D expenditure increased by 9.4%, outpacing revenue growth, highlighting a commitment to innovation and product competitiveness [3]. Strategic Focus - Li Ning is deepening its focus on professional fields and product categories, enhancing brand value and long-term competitiveness [5]. - The company is concentrating on six core categories: basketball, running, fitness, badminton, table tennis, and sports lifestyle, with a comprehensive product layout [6]. - In basketball, Li Ning launched several successful models, including the "伽马" series, which topped annual basketball shoe rankings [6]. Brand and Market Positioning - Li Ning became the official strategic partner of the Chinese Men's Professional Basketball League in 2024, enhancing its brand recognition [7]. - The company has achieved significant success in running, with retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year, and has sold over 10.6 million running shoes [6][7]. - The upcoming Olympic cycle starting in 2025 is expected to further strengthen Li Ning's brand image and market position [8]. Conclusion - Li Ning's solid performance reflects a strategic recalibration, focusing on operational quality, technological depth, and brand potential, setting the stage for a new growth cycle [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning has demonstrated steady growth amidst market fluctuations, with a revenue increase of 3.9% to 28.68 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit of 3.01 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - Li Ning's gross profit rose by 6.0% to 14.16 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 49.4% [1] - The company's operating cash inflow increased by 12.4% to 5.27 billion yuan, with total cash and cash equivalents reaching 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.06 billion yuan from the previous year [9] Operational Strategy - The company emphasizes "steady operation" which does not equate to conservative management, focusing on strategic actions such as controlling inventory and enhancing product competitiveness [3][4] - Li Ning is actively managing its basketball business by controlling shipment volumes to improve core product competitiveness [5] - Cost control measures have been implemented, including the establishment of a centralized purchasing system to enhance efficiency [6] Channel Management - Li Ning is adjusting its channel strategy by improving single-store efficiency and closing underperforming stores, resulting in a net reduction of 83 sales points to 7,585 by the end of 2024 [7] Research and Development - Over the past decade, Li Ning has invested more than 3.5 billion yuan in R&D, with a 9.3% increase in R&D spending in 2024, outpacing revenue growth [12] - The company has developed proprietary technologies in footwear, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [12][14] Product Performance - In 2024, Li Ning's footwear revenue reached 14.3 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of total revenue, with significant sales in running shoes and basketball products [14][22] - The running category saw a retail revenue growth of 25%, with core running shoe models achieving substantial sales increases [22] Market Positioning - Li Ning has established a strong presence in multiple sports categories, including running, basketball, and table tennis, and is expanding into outdoor and emerging sports segments [20][22] - The company has long-term partnerships with national sports teams and has been a key player in the Chinese sports market [16][17] Future Outlook - Li Ning is prepared for pragmatic growth, focusing on solidifying its foundation while exploring future opportunities [18][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][27]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities despite challenging market conditions, with a steady increase in dividend payout ratio to approximately 50% for the year [7]. - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, outperforming expectations, primarily due to a strong recovery in Q4 sales [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.01 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but adjusted for a one-time impairment loss, the profit would have shown a 5% increase [7]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing brand value and product innovation, particularly in the running segment, which saw a 25% increase in sales [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 27.6 billion RMB - 2024: 28.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 28.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 30.1 billion RMB - 2027E: 31.2 billion RMB - The expected growth rates for these years are 7%, 4%, 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2.48 billion RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 17 [6][17]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for 2025, with a slight increase in operating profit margin to 12.8% [7]. Sales Performance - The company’s footwear segment generated 14.3 billion RMB in revenue, a 7% increase, while apparel revenue decreased by 2.9% to 12.05 billion RMB [7]. - E-commerce sales grew by 10.3% to 8.3 billion RMB, while direct sales saw a slight decline of 0.3% [7]. - The company’s total store count at the end of 2024 was 7,585, with a net decrease of 83 stores, indicating a strategic focus on optimizing store performance [7]. Market Comparison - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.36 billion HKD, with a target market value of 48.3 billion HKD for 2025, suggesting a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7][17]. - Compared to peers, the company’s projected PE for 2025 is 18, which is competitive within the industry [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown operational efficiency improvements and is actively investing in cultivating competitive advantages. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.676 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.4%, with a slight increase of 1.0 percentage points. The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.013 billion, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but EBITDA is expected to improve by 6% [2][5] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 28.676 billion (+3.9%) - 2025: 28.870 billion (+0.68%) - 2026: 30.315 billion (+5.0%) - 2027: 31.747 billion (+4.72%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 3.013 billion (-5.46%) - 2025: 2.616 billion (-13.18%) - 2026: 2.923 billion (+11.75%) - 2027: 3.217 billion (+10.04%) [2][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.17 - 2025: 1.01 - 2026: 1.13 - 2027: 1.24 [2][6] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 13.6 - 2025: 15.6 - 2026: 14.0 - 2027: 12.7 [2][6] Operational Insights - The company has reported a stable revenue performance with a focus on enhancing operational quality. The e-commerce channel has shown a growth rate of 10.3% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel has seen a slight decline of 0.4%. The average store size has increased, and the average monthly sales per store have reached 300,000 RMB [5][6] - Cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 5.268 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The inventory level is healthy, with a turnover period of 4 months [5][6] Market Positioning - The company is expected to enhance its brand presence and product reputation through increased investment in professional research and development, sponsorship of various sports events, and targeting different consumer segments. The revenue growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 289 billion, 303 billion, and 317 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining its position as a leading sports brand in China [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][57]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 3.9% to 28.68 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 49.4% [1][9]. - The professional running shoe category led growth, with sales exceeding 10 million pairs, while the basketball category experienced a decline due to proactive shipment adjustments [2][24]. - The company plans to maintain stable revenue growth guidance for 2025, with a focus on increasing marketing resources and investments in R&D and talent for long-term growth [2][56]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue increased by 3.9% to 28.68 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 5.5% to 3.01 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [1][9]. - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 49.4%, driven by better discounting in e-commerce and direct sales channels [9][10]. - Operating cash flow increased by 12.4% to 5.27 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 50% [10][57]. Product Category Performance - Revenue growth rates by category were as follows: running (+25%), basketball (-21%), cross-training (+6%), and sports fashion (-6%) [2][24]. - The company’s major running shoe products, including "Ultra Light," "Red Rabbit," and "Flying Electric," sold over 10.6 million pairs [2][24]. Channel Performance - Revenue growth by channel was: wholesale (+2.6%), direct sales (-0.3%), and e-commerce (+10.3%) [2][18]. - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover, with an inventory turnover period of 63 days [30][44]. Future Guidance - The management indicated that revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be flat, with a net profit margin in the high single digits [56][57]. - The company plans to increase investments in marketing and R&D to support long-term growth [56][57]. Valuation - The target price is maintained at 17.9-19.2 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 17.2-18.5x [3][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met market expectations after excluding impairment losses, with a reported net profit of 3.343 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth when adjusted for certain factors [2] - The dividend payout ratio reached a new high of 50% in 2024, up from 45% in 2023, with an annualized dividend yield of 4% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 28.676 billion RMB, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 5.5% to 3.013 billion RMB [2][9] - The EBITDA for 2024 was 6.379 billion RMB, showing a 3.6% increase, and operating cash flow was 5.268 billion RMB, up 12.4% [2] - The gross margin improved to 49.4%, a 1.0 percentage point increase, while the net profit margin decreased to 10.5%, down 1.0 percentage point [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels in 2024 was as follows: distribution at 12.957 billion RMB (up 2.6%), direct sales at 6.883 billion RMB (down 0.3%), e-commerce at 8.305 billion RMB (up 10.3%), and overseas at 531 million RMB (down 0.2%) [3] - The company opened 78 new distribution stores and closed 201 direct sales stores, resulting in a total of 4,820 distribution stores and 1,297 direct sales stores by the end of 2024 [3] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The operating profit margin (OPM) slightly decreased to 12.8%, while the net profit margin was 10.5% [4] - Management and financial expenses increased, contributing to the decline in net profit margin [4] Inventory and Receivables Management - The company's inventory increased by 4.21% to 2.598 billion RMB, with an average inventory turnover period of 63 days [5] - Accounts receivable decreased by 16.67% to 1.005 billion RMB, with a turnover period of 14 days [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with a focus on optimizing store structures and expanding into emerging markets [7] - Long-term growth is expected from the children's clothing segment, which is still in the cultivation phase [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 29.251 billion RMB and 31.012 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.724 billion RMB and 2.965 billion RMB [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 1.05 RMB, down from previous estimates [7][9]

3月28日，李宁发布2024年全年业绩，公司实现收入286.76亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增加3.9%；毛利 141.56亿元，同比增加6.02%；股东应占溢利30.13亿元；每股基本收益116.98分；拟派发末期股息每股 20.73分，同比增长11.8%，全年股息为58.48分，同比增加6.8%，全年派息比率为50%。 在香港举行的业绩交流会上，公司执行主席兼联席行政总裁李宁表示，2024年是体育大年，公司继续聚 焦 "单品牌、多品类、多渠道" 的核心战略，通过持续的研发和科技创新，推动产品力的升级，同时在 产品创新、品牌建设、渠道优化等多方面取得显著进展。 "李宁品牌将始终秉持'以体育精神服务大众'的核心价值观，致力于成为源自中国并被世界认可的、具 有时尚性的专业运动品牌，成为中国消费者的首选。"李宁说。 据介绍，2024年，公司继续专注于跑步、篮球、综训、羽毛球、乒乓球和运动生活六大核心品类，同时 积极拓展新兴运动及细分品类，如户外运动、高尔夫、网球和匹克球等，继续以科技创新能力赋能产品 力升级，并从夯实专业运动心智、展现运动时尚美学、传承中国文化价值三大立足点出发，积极通过多 元全域的市场营销活动，强 ...