Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a downward trend, closing around 25,700 points, which is a common level recently. The index had previously risen to 26,000 points, creating some investor expectations before the decline [2][3] - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some adopting a bearish outlook due to declining trading volumes, while others are speculating on short-term rebounds by purchasing bull certificates [2][3] Technical Signals - Current technical signals indicate a slight "sell" bias, with 8 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting a bearish sentiment overall. The support level is approximately 25,300 points, with potential further declines to this level being noted [3][4] - For bullish investors, the short-term resistance level is around 26,400 points, which is crucial for monitoring potential upward movements [4] Individual Stock Analysis China Aluminum (02600) - China Aluminum's stock price has shown slight recovery, with expectations of upward movement following a period of consolidation. The resistance level is identified at 8.79 HKD, with a potential next target of 9.08 HKD if the first level is breached. However, the overall technical signals remain bearish with 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [10] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's stock price has declined to 623.5 HKD, with a critical support level at 607 HKD. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 573 HKD. The technical signals are mixed, with 7 sell signals, 6 buy signals, and 8 neutral signals, indicating uncertainty in the stock's direction [17][18] SMIC (00981) - SMIC's stock price remains stable, with a support level around 68.7 HKD. Investors are considering adding to their positions if the price stabilizes around 74-75 HKD. The technical signals are neutral, suggesting no clear direction at this time [24] China Petroleum (00857) - China Petroleum's stock has been performing well, reaching a recent high of 7.92 HKD, with a closing price of 7.89 HKD. The primary resistance level is at 8 HKD, and the stock is currently showing a predominance of sell signals, with 9 sell signals and 5 buy signals [30] Geely Automobile (00175) - Geely's stock price has shown a slight decline, with a support level at 18.9 HKD. The technical signals are predominantly bearish, with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals, indicating that investors may need to wait for a more favorable entry point [38]

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) has shown a positive performance, with a recent increase of 0.16% and a two-week cumulative rise of 4.39% as of October 22, 2025 [3][4] - The index tracks 50 listed companies involved in modern energy sectors, reflecting the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in this field [4] Market Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index rose by 0.29%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as China Nuclear Engineering (up 10.01%) and Petrochemical Machinery (up 8.24%) [3] - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 10.96% and a transaction value of 4.92 million yuan [3] Industry Developments - As of mid-2025, China's operational power storage projects reached a cumulative installed capacity of 164.3 GW, marking a 59% year-on-year increase, with new energy storage growing by 110% [4] - The number of charging infrastructure units nationwide reached 17.34 million, reflecting a 57.72% increase [4] - The new power generation capacity added from January to August 2025 grew by 64.40%, with power investment totaling 499.2 billion yuan, a 0.50% increase [4] Technological Advancements - The successful operation of a 3kW@4.5K helium refrigerator developed by Zhongke Qingneng supports the stable operation of the CRAFT facility, a key project in China's nuclear fusion research [3] - XINWANDA has launched a polymer solid-state battery with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, with plans to establish a 0.2 GWh production line by the end of 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing volatility, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) showing a decline of 1.05% amid market sentiment issues and fluctuations in gold prices [1][3] - Lithium and aluminum sectors are showing localized activity, with leading companies like Shengxin Lithium and Tibet Mining seeing gains, while others like Chuanjiang New Material and Yunnan Zhenye are underperforming [3][5] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) is tracking the performance of key components, with significant movements in stocks such as Shengxin Lithium up over 6% and Zhongfu Industrial up over 2% [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the mixed performance of various stocks, with some major players reporting substantial profit increases, such as Zijin Mining with a 10.33% revenue growth and a 55.45% increase in net profit [5][6] Supply Chain Dynamics - Recent supply disruptions in aluminum production, particularly from Century Aluminum and South32, are raising concerns about future supply constraints, which could positively impact aluminum prices [5][6] - Analysts are optimistic about the aluminum sector's profitability due to these supply constraints, suggesting a potential upward trend in valuations [5] Industry Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry is entering a "new cycle" driven by global energy transitions and technological advancements, with increasing demand for metals like copper, lithium, and cobalt due to the growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles [6][7] - The sector is characterized by a "volume and price increase" phase, with leading companies showing improved profitability and return on equity (ROE), providing solid support for current valuations [5][6] Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) offers a diversified investment approach, tracking a range of metals including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [7]

港交所消息：10月17日， 贝莱德 公司持有的 中国铝业 H股多头头寸从4.81%增至5.46%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto is exploring the possibility of an asset swap with China Aluminum Corporation (Chinalco) to reduce the latter's 11% stake in the company [1] Group 1: Asset Swap Details - Chinalco will exchange part of its shares for a cooperative relationship involving some of Rio Tinto's mining assets [1] - Potential assets of interest for Chinalco include the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia [1] - Another possible exchange could involve Rio Tinto's titanium business [1]

路透：力拓正在探索与国有矿业巨头中国铝业进行资产换股权的可能性，此举将部分削减中铝在力拓的11%持股，从而使力拓能够重启回购并寻求开展新的战略性交易。消息人士称，国有矿业巨头中国铝业将用部分持股换取在力拓部分矿业资产中的合作，这将结束15年来束缚力拓灵活性的治理限制。 ...

Group 1 - The China Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index has risen by 1.50%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as PetroChina Oilfield Services up by 10.05% and China Railway Construction Heavy Industry up by 7.14% [3] - The Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF (515900) has increased by 1.53%, with a latest price of 1.59 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 1.23% over the past month, ranking 1/4 among comparable funds [3] - The trading volume of the Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF was 587.53 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.17% [3] Group 2 - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.55 billion to 6.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 104.30% to 126.39% [4] - China CNR Corporation plans to hold a board meeting on October 30 to consider and approve its performance for the first three quarters, having signed significant contracts totaling approximately 54.34 billion yuan, which is about 22% of its expected revenue for 2024 [4] - The average daily trading volume of the Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF over the past year was 20.23 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [4] Group 3 - The Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index evaluates the innovation and profitability quality of listed central enterprises, selecting 100 representative companies to reflect the overall performance of innovative central enterprises [5] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include China Shipbuilding, Hikvision, and China Southern Power Grid, accounting for 36.04% of the total index weight [5] - The Central Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF has seen a significant increase in scale, growing by 13.42 million yuan over the past three months, ranking 1/4 among comparable funds [4][5]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing strong demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to significant price increases for gold and silver [2][27][30] - Base metals, particularly copper, are facing price volatility with limited fundamental support, as domestic consumption remains weak and supply disruptions are easing [1][13][14] - The tungsten industry is seeing price fluctuations with a divergence in the supply chain, while the molybdenum market is experiencing price increases due to higher output from mines [3][71] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have retreated from highs, with domestic inventories increasing due to limited downstream demand and ongoing maintenance at smelters [1][13] - Aluminum prices have risen slightly, supported by stable supply and improved demand, with a decrease in social inventories [1][21][22][23] - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][27][29] Minor Metals - The tungsten market is experiencing mixed price movements, with some products increasing while others remain stable or decline due to weak downstream demand [3][66][67] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by increased output from mines and stable demand from steel manufacturers [71][73] Rare Earths - Recent export control policies are expected to strengthen China's position in the rare earth industry, with price fluctuations observed in various rare earth products [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

Core Insights - On October 17, China Aluminum conducted a block trade with a transaction volume of 580,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.9126 million yuan, at a price of 8.47 yuan per share [1] - The buyer was Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller was China International Capital Corporation [1] Trading Activity - In the last three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of six block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 30.1571 million yuan [1] - The closing price of China Aluminum on the day of the trade was 8.47 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.51% [1] - The daily turnover rate was 2.13%, with a total trading volume of 2.408 billion yuan and a net outflow of main funds amounting to 34.1802 million yuan [1] Financing Data - The latest financing balance for China Aluminum is 3.373 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.1925 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.94% [1]