Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., noting its recent stock price increase and low rolling PE ratio compared to the industry average [1][2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 90.47% to 3.946 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.33% [1] - The company ranks fifth in the small metals industry based on PE ratio, with an average industry PE of 53.16 and a median of 48.90 [1][2] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum's total market capitalization is approximately 178.44 billion yuan, with 166 institutions holding shares, including 160 funds [1] - The company's main business includes mining and processing of base and rare metals, with key products such as molybdenum, tungsten, copper, cobalt, and niobium [1]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, as it aims to address the oversupply in the market and may lead to a supply shortage, thus increasing prices [1][2][4]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical metal for energy transition, widely used in battery manufacturing and alloys, with DRC being the main global supplier [2]. - Prior to the export ban, cobalt prices had dropped significantly, with a reported price of $11.26 per pound in 2024, down 25.48% year-on-year [2]. - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan/ton but later fell to 230,000 yuan/ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [2]. Price Movements - After the announcement of the extended export ban, cobalt prices showed a notable increase, with "Longjiang 1 cobalt" rising by 22,000 yuan/ton, reaching a price range of 244,000 to 268,000 yuan/ton [3]. Impact on Companies - Companies primarily dealing with cobalt, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd., and Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., saw their stock prices rise significantly following the ban announcement [4]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to exacerbate raw material shortages in major consuming countries like China, with potential supply reductions exceeding 100,000 metal tons [4][5]. Company Responses - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in cobalt production and sales for 2024, with production up 105.61% to 114,200 tons and sales up 266.23% to 108,900 tons [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two major mines in DRC, benefiting directly from the price rebound due to the export ban [7]. - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry indicated that they have sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the export ban on their operations, and they maintain good relationships with suppliers to ensure raw material availability [8].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is experiencing a significant change in fundamentals, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extending its cobalt export ban, which has led to a temporary reversal in supply-demand dynamics and a rebound in cobalt prices [1][9] - Cobalt prices have historically gone through multiple cycles, with the current cycle being influenced by the demand from the electric vehicle and aerospace industries since 2016 [2][4] - The DRC controls over 70% of global cobalt supply, and its export restrictions have contributed to a price increase from a low of $9.5 per pound to $15.75 per pound [1][9] Group 2: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993.SH) has become the world's largest cobalt producer, with production expected to rise significantly from 5.55 million tons in 2023 to 11.42 million tons in 2024, increasing its market share from around 10% to nearly 40% [7][8] - The company has seen a substantial increase in profitability due to the recovery in cobalt prices and the resumption of exports after a period of restrictions [14][15] - Despite being the largest cobalt producer, cobalt is a byproduct for the company, with copper being the primary profit driver, projected to generate a gross profit of 21 billion yuan in 2024 compared to 3 billion yuan from cobalt [15][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent extension of the export ban by the DRC has raised concerns about potential raw material shortages for Chinese cobalt refineries, which may face supply challenges in the latter half of the year [11][12] - There are differing opinions on whether alternative sources and existing inventories can meet demand, with some analysts suggesting that even without DRC exports, global cobalt supply in 2025 will be sufficient to meet consumption needs [12] - The market is closely monitoring the DRC's decisions regarding export quotas, which could further influence cobalt prices and supply dynamics [1][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum has successfully acquired Lumina Gold, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, thereby expanding its gold resource portfolio [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was completed on June 24, 2025, for a total cash consideration of CAD 581 million [1] - The Cangrejos Project is located in the El Oro province of Ecuador, with a resource estimate of 1.376 billion tons and an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [1] - The mine has a projected lifespan of 26 years [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - This acquisition marks Luoyang Molybdenum's second asset in South America, following its 2016 acquisition of niobium and phosphate operations in Brazil [2] - The company plans to leverage its extensive experience in South America to maximize synergies and implement advanced mining technologies [2] Group 3: Production and Economic Outlook - The project is expected to commence production by 2028, with an annual output of approximately 11.5 tons of gold [2] - The Cangrejos Project could increase Ecuador's gold production by nearly 50%, as the country is projected to produce 24.3 tons of gold in 2024 [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for the mine is estimated at around USD 671 per ounce, positioning it within the lower cost quartile of global gold mines [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company anticipates potential increases in resource reserves based on ongoing exploration efforts [3] - The favorable infrastructure surrounding the mine, including proximity to major transport routes and water sources, is expected to enhance cost competitiveness [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum views gold as a key asset for future expansion, recognizing its dual financial and industrial attributes in the current economic landscape [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48%, down 117 points, closing at 24,357 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index remained unchanged [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 142.1 billion [1] Group 2: Digital Currency and Stablecoins - Citic Securities highlighted the need to focus on opportunities related to stablecoins in response to the rising international dominance of digital dollars [1] - Stocks related to stablecoins saw significant gains, with Victory Securities (08540) doubling in price, China Everbright Holdings (00165) rising nearly 28%, and Yikang (09923) and Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) both increasing by approximately 11% [1] Group 3: Sector Performance - Hong Kong Travel (00308) surged over 60% as the tourism industry continues to show positive trends, with the company increasing its tourism investments [3] - Defense and military stocks rose against the market trend, with China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) up 8.5% and AVIC (02357) increasing by 2.88%, as institutions expect a revaluation of defense assets [3] - China Molybdenum (03993) rose by 5.92% due to a new round of cobalt export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may exceed market expectations, providing strong support for cobalt prices [3] - Ocean Park (02255) increased by over 19% as Xiangyuan Holdings is set to become the new controlling shareholder, potentially leading to complementary advantages [3] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Sinopharm (01801) fell by 3.94% after announcing a 4.9% discount on a share placement, raising HKD 4.265 billion [4] - Kingkey Financial International (01468) dropped over 6% following a profit warning, expecting an annual net loss of no more than HKD 1.25 billion [5]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Report Industry Overview - The cobalt market is expected to face a shortage of 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2025 due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited new supply from Indonesia [2][3] - The global cobalt resources are primarily concentrated in DRC (56% of reserves), Australia (16%), and Indonesia (6%), with China having a high dependency on imports [2][7] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC government announced a four-month ban on cobalt raw material exports on February 22, 2025, which was extended for another three months on June 21, 2025. This is expected to reduce the DRC's annual production of 220,000 tons by over 100,000 tons [3] - Despite a previous surplus of cobalt, the current market is expected to see a shortage due to the DRC's export restrictions and limited new supply from Indonesia [3][4] - The cobalt demand is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, with 43% of consumption in power batteries and 30% in consumer electronics [4][15] Price Forecast - Short-term projections indicate cobalt prices could rise to around 300,000 yuan/ton due to inventory depletion and upstream reluctance to sell [5] - The long-term price expectation is between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan/ton, supported by DRC government policies and potential quota systems [5] Major Players - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (LMO) is projected to become the largest cobalt supplier globally, with production expected to reach 114,200 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2][9] - Huayou Cobalt is also highlighted as a key player with significant production capacity in both DRC and Indonesia, potentially benefiting from price increases [6][18] Emerging Supply Sources - Indonesia is expected to become a significant new supply source, with wet nickel production capacity rapidly increasing, projected to yield 40,000 to 50,000 tons of cobalt by 2025 [10][13] Market Challenges - The domestic cobalt industry in China is facing a decline in capacity utilization due to rising raw material prices leading to cost imbalances [14] - The shift in import forms from refined cobalt to crude hydroxide forms is noted, with potential impacts on the domestic market starting from July 2025 due to DRC's export restrictions [4][12] Future Demand Trends - The demand for cobalt in the lithium battery sector is expected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% anticipated over the next few years [16][17] - The industrial application of cobalt is also projected to see stable growth, particularly in hard alloys and high-temperature alloys [17] Conclusion - The cobalt market is poised for significant changes due to geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and evolving demand patterns, with key players like LMO and Huayou Cobalt positioned to benefit from these trends.

洛阳钼业回应刚果(金)钴出口禁令延长：当地矿区生产运营活动正常进行 金十数据6月23日讯，刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管控制局6月21日宣布，将今年2月出台的刚果(金)钴出口 禁令继续延长三个月。针对此事，全球最大钴生产商洛阳钼业于6月23日回应称，目前，公司TFM及 KFM矿区生产运营活动正常进行，预计该临时禁令的延长不会对经营业绩产生重大影响。该公司同时 表示："自首次禁令发布以来，公司始终与刚果(金)政府及行业管理机构保持密切沟通。针对新的情 况，公司将继续保持与相关各方的沟通，密切跟踪政策进展。" （界面） ...