美国耶鲁大学预算实验室4月10日发布的最新研究估算显示，美国的关税政策将使美国家庭平均每年损 失4700美元。报告显示，关税对服装和纺织品的影响尤为显著，短期内消费者将面临服装价格上涨64% 的局面。长期来看，服装价格将上涨27%。 据统计，目前美国只有2.5%的服装和1%的鞋类为本土制造，越南等亚洲国家则是美国服装鞋帽的主要 进口来源地。越南纺织服装协会的数据显示，2024年越南纺织品服装出口额达440亿美元，美国是其最 大市场，耐克、露露乐蒙等服装品牌超过35%的产能聚集在越南。随着美国所谓"对等关税"措施即将实 施，这些服装品牌将被迫提价。 智通财经APP获悉，4月11日，工业和信息化部办公厅发布关于开展纺织服装特色产业集群建设工作的 通知。 对重点培育的纺织服装特色产业集群，工业和信息化部统筹推动集群建设工作，加强集群间产业对接， 推动集群数字化转型升级，强化产业集群创意设计能力，提升特色产品附加值，提高特色产业集群的竞 争优势。 银河证券发布行业周报称，国内制造业服企布局从产能规模增长逐步向高质量增长转变，发力高质量客 户和中高端产品，而高价值产品价格具有一定的调控空间。纺织服企的国际化产能布局优势 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The retail sales of clothing in January-February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, significantly improving compared to the decline in November-December 2024 [2][13]. - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD, and Douyin reported strong growth in outdoor, women's wear, and home textiles, with sales growth rates of +48%, +31%, and +15% respectively in January-February 2025 [2][16]. - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports increased by 16.2% and 20.8% year-on-year in February, indicating a recovery in the export market [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has outperformed the broader market since February, with notable stock price increases for companies like 361 Degrees (+18.67%) and TBOC (+16.02%) [1][12]. Brand Apparel Insights - Key brands such as KOLON, Biem.l.fdlkk, and Semir experienced sales growth exceeding 50% in January-February 2025, while brands like Salomon and HLA saw growth rates above 30% [2][17]. - The report highlights a positive trend in brand performance, with several companies expected to show improved revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - The report indicates that while the first quarter of 2024 had a high base, most manufacturing companies expect revenue growth in the high single to double digits for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - Companies like Rihong and Juyuan are expanding their production capabilities, with Rihong's revenue in February 2025 up by 20.73% year-on-year [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with new growth drivers, such as Purcotton and HLA, and recommends companies with strong market share growth potential like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [4][5].

一个不起眼的赛道，正成为不少基金经理在AI浪潮中保持定力的象征和重要持仓对象。 在市场最热、最拥挤的状态下，基金经理应该放手冲入热门赛道还是远离喧嚣独辟蹊径？券商中国记者注意到，基 于风险对冲和策略均衡，许多基金经理选择了组合平衡，在重仓半导体与AI的同时，在组合仓位中突出了对冷门赛 道鞋服股的配置。 根据基金2024年第四季度报告显示，截至去年12月末，腾讯为上述基金经理的第一大重仓股，这体现了基金经理对 AI浪潮和变革性机会并不拒绝，不过基于对冲策略，他在鞋服赛道有更多的选择，除了第十大重仓股 滔搏 公司外， 他还持有港股另一个时尚鞋服龙头股江南布衣。 半导体频频牵手鞋服，科技基金经理配置策略反差大 基金经理将科技股与鞋服赛道组合起来的策略，看起来古怪但十分流行。 有不少A股基金产品在港股和A股的消费赛道均只买鞋服股，这种策略也延伸到部分公募QDII上，有多只QDII基金 的重仓股席位，反映在A股、港股、美股三大市场的消费赛道也几乎只配置鞋服股。甚至从行业仓位比例看，已成为 一些QDII的最大行业配置对象。 对此，有基金经理解释认为，类似许多投资者往往对平台特点的互联网概念充满着巨大成长的想象力，从全球行 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Tmall (滔搏) Company Overview - Tmall is the largest distributor of Adidas globally and the second-largest distributor of Nike. In the Chinese sports industry, Tmall holds a market share of approximately 16%, trailing only behind BaoSheng International at 11% [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Tmall's revenue is projected to be nearly 29 billion RMB, with a net profit exceeding 2.2 billion RMB [4]. - Tmall has maintained a high dividend payout, with a dividend rate exceeding 100% for three consecutive years and a current dividend yield of over 7% [4][7]. Operational Efficiency - Tmall has built a membership system with 81 million members, achieving a repurchase rate of 70%. This has significantly enhanced customer loyalty and operational efficiency [4][5]. - The company has improved inventory management through digital procurement and flexible inventory allocation, resulting in lower inventory turnover days compared to competitors [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Tmall's strong relationship with major brands like Adidas and Nike positions it well to benefit from brand recovery, especially after store adjustments [4][8]. - The company has shifted its strategy post-pandemic, focusing on larger stores and closing unprofitable smaller ones, resulting in a reduction of store count from nearly 8,400 to about 5,800, while improving sales per square meter [10]. Future Outlook - Despite pressures on profit margins in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, a revenue growth of 5-10% is expected to lead to a rebound in profit margins [9]. - Tmall's net profit growth is projected to exceed 20% annually from fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with a potential market capitalization of 27 billion RMB, indicating a 30% growth opportunity [4][17]. Brand Dynamics - Recent adjustments by Adidas and Nike, including local product launches and inventory management, are expected to provide Tmall with significant recovery opportunities [8][13]. - The management anticipates that as brand recovery becomes evident, Tmall's performance will directly benefit from these changes [7][12]. Investment Considerations - Tmall is viewed as a high-dividend stock with strong potential for capital appreciation, especially as market conditions shift towards consumer sectors [9][15]. - The current valuation is at a three-year low of 11-12 times earnings, with expectations of reaching 15 times by 2025, reflecting a positive outlook for investors [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 4.33 based on a valuation of 15 times FY2025 earnings [4]. Core Views - The company has established itself as the largest retail partner for Adidas globally and the second largest for Nike, benefiting from strong operational capabilities and a focus on member services [1][2]. - The recovery of Nike and Adidas is expected to positively impact the company's performance, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these brands [2][3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend yield, averaging 104% over the past three years, making it an attractive option for dividend-seeking investors [3]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has rapidly developed since establishing partnerships with Nike and Adidas, focusing on building a robust membership system that has grown to 81 million members by FY25H1, a fourfold increase since FY2020 [1][22]. - The company has improved inventory management and store efficiency, reducing the number of stores from 8,302 at the end of FY2018 to 6,144 by the end of FY2024, while enhancing store productivity [1][28]. Investment Logic - The company's performance is closely tied to the recovery of Nike and Adidas, with Adidas showing positive growth since the appointment of a new CEO in January 2023, indicating a successful local market strategy [2][36]. - Nike's new CEO, appointed in October 2024, is expected to implement strategies similar to those of Adidas, potentially leading to a recovery in performance [3][43]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.22, 0.27, and 0.32 CNY for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [4]. - The report suggests that the current operational challenges are reflected in the stock price, and the anticipated recovery of Nike and Adidas could lead to significant stock price appreciation [4].

Market Overview - In February, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.9%, while the textile and apparel sector increased by 1.3%[13] - The Hong Kong market's Hang Seng Index rose by 3.2%, with the textile and apparel sector index up by 2.9%[13] - The US market experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index down by 1.4% and the consumer discretionary sector down by 9.4%[13] Brand Performance - In January, outdoor and women's apparel sales on Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms saw significant growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 56% and 45%[19] - Notable brands such as KOLONSPORT and Bi Yin Le Fen achieved year-on-year sales growth of 81% and 101% respectively[24] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas reported year-on-year sales growth of 21% and 34% respectively on these platforms[24] Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 3.4% and 2.7% year-on-year in January, despite high base effects[2] - Key Taiwanese manufacturers like Yu Yuan and Zhi Qiang reported over 20% growth in January, with Yu Yuan achieving record revenue for the month[2] - Nanshan Zhishang's stock surged by 81.5% due to its involvement in robotic tendon materials, indicating strong future demand[16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued Hong Kong stocks and brands with new growth potential, such as All Cotton Era and Hai Lan Home[3] - For textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group are highlighted for their strong growth prospects and market share potential[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic weakness, international political and economic uncertainties, and significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and upgrades it to an industry favorite, with a target price of HKD 3.34, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price of HKD 2.82 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue performance is gradually improving, with expectations that FY25 revenue will outperform the previously guided high single-digit decline. The successful promotional strategies are credited for this positive trend [2][3]. - The recovery of Nike's brand strength, particularly after signing Wang Jiaer as a global ambassador, is expected to enhance market sentiment towards the company and improve FY26 performance outlook [4][5]. - The current valuation is considered low at 10.3x FY26 P/E, coupled with a high dividend yield of around 10%, suggesting significant upside potential compared to downside risks [2][5]. Revenue Trends - For 4QFY25, the company anticipates a reduction in revenue decline to low single digits year-on-year, an improvement from the previous quarter [3]. - The retail discounting strategy has deepened in 4QFY25, aligning with the company's inventory reduction efforts and increasing online sales proportion [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts indicating a revenue of RMB 27,129 million for FY25, a decline of 6% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of RMB 1,382 million, reflecting a 38% decrease [5][12]. - The expected financial metrics for FY26 include a slight revenue decline to RMB 26,849 million and a net profit increase to RMB 1,595 million, indicating a recovery trend [5][12]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sports apparel retail sector, with a focus on enhancing brand image and expanding market reach, particularly in lower-tier cities [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve as Nike enhances its product promotion and marketing efforts in China post-inventory resolution [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a potential dividend yield of 8.2% for FY2025, which is considered attractive [5] Core Views - The company's FY25Q3 performance showed a mid-single-digit decline in total sales for retail and wholesale businesses, with a 2.1% QoQ and 4.4% YoY reduction in direct-operated store gross sales area [3] - E-commerce promotions helped narrow the sales decline in FY25Q3 compared to FY25Q2, with online pre-tax sales estimated to grow by double digits YoY, contributing to a mid-single-digit decline in overall channel sales [3] - Retail channel performance slightly outperformed the wholesale channel, with both showing similar sales trends [3] - Inventory management remains a priority, with direct-operated discounts deepening YoY in FY25Q3, consistent with the trend in FY25H1 [4] - The company continues to optimize its store network, with a high single-digit YoY reduction in store count by the end of FY25Q3, while average store area increased [4] - New store formats, such as the FOS (Future of Style) and HALO concept stores, have been introduced to enhance the retail experience and capabilities [4] Financial Projections - FY25/26/27 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 1.40 billion, RMB 1.53 billion, and RMB 1.67 billion, respectively, representing YoY changes of -36.7%, +9.3%, and +9.2% [5] - Revenue for FY2024 is estimated at RMB 28.93 billion, with a 6.9% YoY growth, while FY2025E revenue is projected at RMB 26.41 billion, reflecting an 8.7% YoY decline [6] - Gross margin for FY2024 is 41.8%, expected to slightly decrease to 40.0% in FY2025E, and then recover to 40.4% and 40.6% in FY2026E and FY2027E, respectively [6] - Net profit margin is projected to decline from 7.6% in FY2024 to 5.3% in FY2025E, before recovering to 5.7% and 6.0% in FY2026E and FY2027E [6] - ROE is expected to decrease from 22.5% in FY2024 to 14.2% in FY2025E, then gradually recover to 15.5% and 17.0% in FY2026E and FY2027E [6] Market Data - The company's closing price on December 17, 2024, was HKD 2.96, with a total share capital of 6,201 million shares and a net asset value of RMB 9.5 billion [2] - Total assets stood at RMB 14.9 billion, with net assets per share at RMB 1.53 [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Topsports International (6110) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 3.79 per share, based on a FY2026 PE of 12x [5][23] Core Views - FY25Q3 sales showed sequential improvement, with total retail and wholesale sales declining mid-single-digit YoY, compared to a 10-20% low-end decline in FY25Q2 [2][15] - Inventory reduction is progressing smoothly, with inventory expected to return to healthy levels by FY25 end (Feb 2025) [3][22] - Nike FY25Q2 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of USD 12.35 billion, down 9% YoY (currency neutral), and net profit of USD 1.16 billion, down 26% YoY [4][16] - Nike plans to clear inventory by the first half of next year and focus on professional sports, extending partnerships with NFL, NBA, and PSG [5][17] Financial Performance and Forecast - FY2025-FY2027 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 1.325/1.800/2.152 billion, with FY2026 EPS of RMB 0.29 [5][23] - FY25H1 inventory was RMB 6.12 billion, up 6.4% YoY, with inventory turnover days at 148 days, up 7 days YoY [3][22] - FY25H1 gross profit margin was 41.1%, down 3.6% YoY, due to deeper discounts to optimize inventory [3][22] Industry and Market Context - Nike's CEO emphasized strengthening ties with core partners like Topsports International and Pou Sheng International, and repositioning NIKE DIGITAL to focus on full-price models [4][16] - Nike plans to accelerate inventory clearance in H2 (Dec 2024-May 2025) and focus on professional sports, launching new products like Vomero 18 and Pegasus Premium [5][17] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The report values Topsports International at a FY2026 PE of 12x, translating to a target price of HKD 3.79 per share [5][23] - Comparable companies include JD Sports Fashion, Fraser, and Pou Sheng International, with median PE ratios of 9.1x, 10.3x, and 9.2x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [8]