光期研究 2 0 2 5年1 2月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：供需双弱，胶价震荡 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内进入停割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅2.15%，NR盘面月涨幅0.37%，BR盘面月跌幅1.61% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 17500 2022-01 2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the tightness in copper mines is being transmitted to electrolytic copper, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices reaching new highs [1] - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper mine production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating a commitment to address the supply shortage [2] - CSPT members cover approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422,000 tons as of October 2025 [3] Group 2 - The reduction in copper mine production is seen as an inevitable result of the tight supply expected in 2025/2026, with several mines already adjusting their production forecasts downward due to various disruptions [4] - The profitability of smelting companies is increasingly reliant on by-products like sulfuric acid, as the treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have been declining, with spot prices reaching historical lows [5] - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, but regional imbalances may exacerbate tightness in electrolytic copper outside the U.S., particularly due to expectations of U.S. tariffs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), highlighting stable revenue growth and an increase in net profit margin despite a volatile external environment [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, the company achieved a revenue of 8.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.1 RMB and a proposed interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [2] - Key profitability metrics showed a gross margin increase of 0.1 percentage points to 50%, operating profit margin up 0.3 percentage points to 17%, and net profit margin up 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% year-on-year [2] Business Segmentation - In the first half of the fiscal year, the revenue breakdown by business segment was 73.6% from branded down jackets, 22.9% from OEM management, 2.8% from women's wear, and 0.7% from diversified clothing, with the core branded down jacket business showing steady growth [3] - The branded down jacket revenue composition by brand was 87.1% from the main brand Bosideng, 5.8% from Xuezhongfei, 0.2% from Bingjie, and 6.9% from other related materials [4] - Revenue by sales channel showed 36.7% from self-operated stores, 56.4% from wholesale, and 6.9% from other sources, with year-on-year growth of 6.6%, 7.9%, and 22.8% respectively [4] Online and Offline Sales - Online sales for all brands reached 1.43 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, with branded down jackets contributing 1.38 billion RMB, up 2.4%, accounting for 21.1% of down jacket revenue [4] - As of September 2025, the company operated 3,558 stores for its down jacket business, a net increase of 88 stores (+2.5%) since the beginning of the fiscal year [4] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for the branded down jacket business was 59.1%, with Bosideng and Xuezhongfei at 64.8% and 47.9% respectively, while the OEM business gross margin was 20.5%, reflecting improvements from focusing on core clients and enhancing ODM capabilities [5] - The company's expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% year-on-year [6] - As of September 2025, inventory was 4.74 billion RMB, a 19.9% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year but a 20.3% year-on-year decrease, with inventory turnover days reduced by 11 days to 178 days [6] Long-term Strategy - The company is committed to long-term development, launching upgraded products and enhancing brand presence through collaborations with top designers and flagship store renovations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), highlighting stable revenue growth and an increase in net profit margin despite a volatile external environment [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Bosideng reported revenue of 8.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.1 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, operating margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 17%, and net profit margin rose by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for the first half of the fiscal year shows that the brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue, with OEM management at 22.9%, women's wear at 2.8%, and diversified clothing at 0.7% [3] - Within the down jacket segment, the main brand Bosideng contributed 87.1% of revenue, with other brands like Xuezhongfei and Bingjie contributing 5.8% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Revenue from self-operated and wholesale channels in the down jacket business grew by 6.6% and 7.9% respectively, while online sales reached 1.43 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [3] Store Expansion - As of September 2025, Bosideng operated 3,558 down jacket stores, a net increase of 88 stores (+2.5%) since the beginning of the fiscal year [4] - The breakdown of stores shows 1,239 self-operated and 2,319 franchised stores, with increases of 3 and 85 stores respectively [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the brand down jacket business was 59.1%, with Bosideng and Xuezhongfei at 64.8% and 47.9% respectively [5] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% [5] - As of September 2025, inventory was 4.74 billion RMB, a 19.9% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year but a 20.3% decrease year-on-year [5] Long-term Strategy - The company is focused on long-term development, investing in brand building and launching new products, including collaborations with top designers and flagship store renovations [6]

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement and continue to underperform quantitative strategies [2] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation funds and quantitative funds, while subjective stock-picking funds are limited, leading to a higher demand for valuation and safety margins from subjective long positions [2] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as companies expanding overseas [2] Group 2 - December is expected to open a favorable window for "profit-making effects," with the correlation between market movements and fundamentals being weaker in November [3] - The "spring market" period, which lasts about 20 trading days from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, is anticipated to provide good profit opportunities, especially for stocks with positive earnings forecasts [3] - Many sectors have already adjusted by approximately 20%, making December a suitable time for observation and potential investment [3] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and improved risk appetite, with expectations for clearer economic and industrial development guidance from year-end meetings [4] - The market is advised to maintain a bullish outlook and continue to invest in Chinese assets, focusing on high-growth sectors such as AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [5] - Key sectors to watch include resource products, new consumption, and technology growth, particularly in AI and domestic computing power industries [5] Group 4 - The market is likely to choose an upward direction after three months of consolidation, with a high probability of a cross-year rally in December [6] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from the political bureau meeting and central economic work meeting, focusing on resource products, service consumption, and technology sectors [6] - The dual focus on large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and the Sci-Tech 50 is recommended for the upcoming cross-year market [6] Group 5 - The market sentiment is expected to improve as December approaches, with significant policy observations anticipated, which could catalyze the cross-year market [8] - Key investment themes include commercial aerospace, AI applications, energy storage, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8] - The improvement in overseas liquidity and the adjustment of previous high-performing sectors are also expected to benefit the market [8] Group 6 - Historical data indicates that policy factors are crucial for the initiation of cross-year rallies, with macroeconomic data playing a less decisive role [9] - The cross-year rally typically starts before a weak market, driven by expectations of policy easing and improved liquidity [9] - Key sectors to focus on include semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, AI applications, and pharmaceuticals, especially if new policy directions emerge from the central economic work meeting [9]

Group 1 - The overall direction of the A-share market is still in a bull market, but it may enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still considerable room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase under the government's guidance for a "slow bull" policy [1][3] - In November, major A-share indices generally declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with sectors like comprehensive, banking, and media leading in gains [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced fluctuations in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over AI bubbles. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 4.9% [2] Group 2 - In terms of investment strategy, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During the fluctuation phase, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer sectors [3] - For the Hong Kong market, a "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. The market's overall profitability remains strong, and despite recent gains, valuations are still relatively low, making long-term investment attractive [4][5] - Specific areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in technology, chip manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies with their own growth potential [5]

Core Insights - The seventh Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst Awards results were announced on November 28 [1] Group 1 - Everbright Securities won one research award in a specific field [1] - Everbright Securities received two major awards in the elite analyst category [1] - One industry from Everbright Securities ranked first in its category [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Award Ceremony took place on November 28, gathering over 300 authoritative scholars, public and private fund leaders, listed company chairpersons, top fund managers, and chief analysts in Shanghai to discuss future opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1]. Group 2 - The results of the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Elite Analyst selection were announced [2]. Group 3 - The honor roll for the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn in the robotics and high-end manufacturing industry includes: - 1st place: Industrial Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Ding Zhigang; Team Members: Shi Kang, Guo Yanan, Qi Jiayi, Wu Weikang) - 2nd place: CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Xu Guangtan; Team Members: Chen Xuanlin, Ji Xingbo, Li Changhong, Wu Yuxuan, Qiao Lei) - 3rd place: Zhongtai Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Wang Ke; Team Members: Zheng Yameng, Wang Zijie, Xie Xiaohui, Kou Hongji) - 4th place: Minsheng Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Li Zhe; Team Members: Zhan Hao, Kuang Renlei, Li Siwei, Zhou Xiaomeng) - 5th place: Everbright Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Huang Shuaibin; Co-Chief: Chen Jianing; Team Members: Ji Meng, Li Jiaqing, Zhuang Xiaobo, Xia Tianyu) [3].

专题：第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 （首席分析师：张欣劼；团队成员：郭好格） 第二名 申万宏源证券研究团队 （首席分析师：任杰；团队成员：宋涛、郝子禹、唐猛） 第三名 兴业证券研究团队 （首席分析师：黄杨；联席首席：季贤东；团队成员：李明、陈宣屹） 第四名 西部证券研究团队 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海，共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。 同时，第七届新浪财经金麒麟菁英分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 第七届新浪财经金麒麟建筑与建材行业"菁英分析师"荣誉榜如下： 第一名 光大证券研究团队 （首席分析师：孙伟风；团队成员：吴钰洁、鲁俊） 第五名 华源证券研究团队 （首席分析师：戴铭余；联席首席：王彬鹏；团队成员：邓力 、赵梦妮、郦悦轩） 责任编辑：郭栩彤 ...

Group 1 - The 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Awards ceremony was held on November 28, 2025, in Shanghai, gathering over 300 authoritative scholars, fund managers, and top analysts to discuss future opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1]. - The results of the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst selection were announced [2]. Group 2 - The top analysts in the overseas market research category were recognized, with the first place awarded to the Industrial Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Zhang Yidong [3]. - The second place was awarded to the Everbright Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Fu Tianzi [3]. - The third place went to the Tianfeng Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Kong Rong [3]. - The fourth place was awarded to the Guohai Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Chen Mengzhu [3]. - The fifth place was given to the Guoxin Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Zhang Lunkuo [3]. - The sixth place was awarded to the Guotai Junan Securities Research Team, led by Chief Analyst Qin Heping [3].