A股研究报告|2024年3月19日 引入加盟特许经营模式，公司门店规模有望进一步提升 —海底捞（06862.HK）投资价值分析报告 ⚫ 群众基础良好，预计2024年火锅行业市场规模将超5500亿元 由于强社交属性、食材及口味的多样性，火锅是我国最受欢迎的外出就 公司投资评级 餐选择，在我国餐饮行业中占据较大比重。根据红餐大数据，火锅门店 推荐（首次） 在新一线城市分布最多，占比 23.1%，在二线及以上城市门店数占比达 到 49.1%，近几年随着三线及以下城市消费能力提升，三线及以下城市 火锅门店同步增长。据路过网络数据，2023年以来，受益于出行恢复， 公司深度报告 线下门店客流恢复，以及品牌推出外卖、自提、自热火锅等多种服务， 2023年火锅市场恢复增长，预计市场规模有望超过5000亿元，按5%增 华通证券国际有限公司研究部 幅计算，预计2024年火锅行业市场规模将超5500亿元。 ⚫ 海底捞品牌知名度高，创新产品和服务下公司翻台率有所提升 社会服务行业组 服务是海底捞能够在餐饮市场脱颖而出的关键，近几年，海底捞餐厅多 SFC:AAK004 次以创新服务及创新菜品进入消费者视野，带动餐厅翻台率提升。目前， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - Haidilao has officially opened its franchise model, which is expected to accelerate its expansion moderately. The company believes that introducing a franchise model will help achieve further expansion while maintaining operational efficiency. The franchisees must meet specific criteria, including financial stability and management capabilities [1]. - The company has shown strong post-pandemic recovery, with a forecasted revenue of over 41.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.4 billion yuan for 2023, marking a historical high. The overall table turnover rate in Q4 2023 is approaching the levels seen in the same period of 2019, indicating strong operational performance [1][2]. - Haidilao's cautious approach to expansion through franchising reflects a strategic shift in the restaurant industry, where many brands are moving towards a "direct + franchise" model. This model allows for rapid and efficient expansion with lower capital requirements compared to fully owned stores [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Haidilao are as follows: - 2023: 41,063 million yuan - 2024: 45,682 million yuan (up 11.2%) - 2025: 50,497 million yuan (up 10.5%) [2][6]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,547 million yuan - 2024: 5,258 million yuan (up 15.6%) - 2025: 6,050 million yuan (up 15.1%) [2][6]. - The company aims to maintain a PE ratio of 15 for 2023, 13 for 2024, and 11 for 2025, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [1][2]. Market Position - As of the report date, Haidilao has over 1,400 stores nationwide, with plans for further openings, including a new sub-brand "Hailao Hotpot" aimed at offering high cost-performance options [1][2]. - The company is positioned well within the competitive landscape, with a focus on maintaining quality and efficiency while exploring new business models through franchising [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao [1] Core Views - Haidilao is adopting a franchise model to enhance operational efficiency and expand its market presence while maintaining service quality [3] - The company is expected to have significant growth potential in the hot pot market, which is projected to reach approximately 500 billion yuan in 2022, with low brand and chain penetration [3] - The shift to a franchise model allows Haidilao to reduce operational costs and improve financial metrics, with a focus on revenue sharing from franchisees [3] - For 2024, the report anticipates stable turnover rates and the opening of 70-80 new stores, alongside a potential increase in dividend payouts [3] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,039 million yuan in 2022 to 52,826 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,638 million yuan in 2023 to 5,736 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 168.66% and 11.50% respectively [2] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2023 to 1.03 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Market Data - The closing price of Haidilao is 13.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 77,924.52 million HKD [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43 in 2022 to 12 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][6] Operational Insights - The franchise model is expected to leverage local resources, enhancing brand penetration and operational consistency across new outlets [3] - The company aims to diversify its brand portfolio with new concepts like "Hi Lao" and "Miao Shixiong Stir-fried Chicken," which will contribute to long-term growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The company is transitioning to a franchise model, focusing on moderate expansion while balancing efficiency and scale [6]. - The company expects revenue for 2023 to be no less than 41.4 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of over 33.3%, and a net profit of no less than 4.4 billion CNY [6]. - The target price has been adjusted to 18.54 CNY, reflecting a 24% decrease, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20x, which is above the industry average of 14x [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023E: 41,233 million CNY - 2024E: 48,202 million CNY - 2025E: 53,941 million CNY - Net profit projections are: - 2023E: 4,454 million CNY - 2024E: 5,167 million CNY - 2025E: 5,808 million CNY - The PE ratios are projected to be: - 2023E: 14.84 - 2024E: 12.80 - 2025E: 11.38 [7].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 海底捞（06862） 证券研究报告 2024年02月27日 投资评级 23全年业绩不低于44亿符合预期，期待翻台稳健修复下的开店重启 行业 非必需性消费/旅游及 消闲设施 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 公司发布正面盈利预告：23 年持续经营业务收入预计将不低于人民币 当前价格 14.34港元 414.0 亿元/yoy+33%，持续经营业务净利润不低于人民币 44.0 亿元 目标价格 港元 /yoy+169%，实现净利率10.6%、超19年全年水平（10.3%）。 基本数据 港股总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 公司收入及业绩的增长主要由于防疫政策优化及经济复苏，海底捞餐厅客 港股总市值(百万港元) 79,931.16 流量增加，公司经营表现好转，海底捞餐厅翻台率提升及营运效率改善。 每股净资产(港元) 1.81 资产负债率(%) 59.72 单23H2来看：23H2预计实现营收不低于225.1亿元/yoy+58%，净利 一 年内最高/最低(港元) 23.95/11.94 润不低于21.4亿元/yoy+12%，净利率9.5%。公司23H1若剔除汇兑收 作者 益，经营性业绩 20.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price of 14.06 HKD [3]. Core Views - Haidilao's 2023 revenue is expected to be no less than 41.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of at least 33.3%, driven by increased customer flow and improved operational performance due to reduced pandemic disruptions [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be no less than 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of at least 168.79%, primarily due to improved table turnover rates and operational efficiency [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its existing store operations rather than aggressive expansion, with only 12 new stores opened in 2023 compared to 28 in 2022 [2]. - Haidilao is exploring new business avenues through sub-brands and personalized stores, such as the budget-friendly "Hailao" and high-end bistro "Youjishan," as well as specialized hotpot stores targeting specific consumer scenarios [2]. - The report suggests that Haidilao's internal reforms and post-pandemic recovery in dine-in traffic could lead to a gradual return to stable operations, enhancing performance elasticity [2]. Financial Summary - Expected revenue for 2023 is 41,569 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.9% [3]. - Projected net profit for 2023 is 4,421 million RMB, with a growth rate of 169.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.79 RMB for 2023, with a PE ratio of 16 [3]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 5,370 million RMB and 6,093 million RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 12 [3].

2024年2月21日 公司研究 翻台率持续改善，24 年或重启开店计划 ——海底捞（6862.HK）2023 年业绩预告点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：14.06港元 事件：公司发布2023年业绩预告，预计2023年持续经营业务收入不低于414 亿元，同比增长不低于33.3%；预计持续经营业务净利润不低于44亿元，同比 增长不低于168.3%。其中，公司预计23H2持续经营业务收入不低于225亿元， 作者 同比增长不低于41.7%；预计持续经营业务净利润不低于21.4亿元，同比增长 分析师：陈彦彤 不低于36.8%。 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 23H2客流改善带动收入增长提速。公司预计23H2持续经营业务收入不低于225 chenyt@ebscn.com 亿元，同比增长不低于41.7%，收入增速环比改善，主要系随着针对新冠疫情 分析师：汪航宇 的管控措施优化及经济复苏，海底捞餐厅客流量增加，经营表现好转。23H2公 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 司整体表现出客单价下降、客流回升的趋势。23H2公司翻台率持续好转，23Q4 021-52523174 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 海底捞（06862.HK） 2023 年业绩预告点评：盈利符合预期，期待 2024 年 02月 22日 扩张新周期 证券分析师 孙瑜 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 证券分析师 李昱哲 执业证书：S0600522090007 营业总收入（百万元） 39,097 31,039 41,410 48,332 52,826 liyzh@dwzq.com.cn 同比 36.63% -20.61% 33.41% 16.72% 9.30% 归母净利润（百万元） -3,250 1,638 4,402 5,144 5,736 股价走势 同比 -1150.80% 150.42% 168.66% 16.86% 11.50% 海底捞 恒生指数 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） -0.58 0.29 0.79 0.92 1.03 24% P/E（现价&最新摊薄） -22 43 16 14 12 18% 12% 6% [关Ta ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年02月22日 海底捞（06862.HK） 买入 经营延续稳健表现，关注新业态孵化与开店积极信号 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年预计实现净利润超44亿元，符合我们预期。2023年，公司预计实 社会服务·酒店餐饮 现持续经营业务收入超414.0亿元，同比增长超33.3%；预计实现持续 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 经营业务净利润44.0亿元，同比增长超168.5%，经营表现与我们前期 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 预测（净利润为45.5亿元）大致符合我们预测。2023H2，公司预计实 S0980511040003 S0980513100003 现持续经营业务收入不低于224.4亿元，同比增超57.7%；预计实现持 证券分析师：张鲁 续经营业务净利润21.4亿元，同比增长超12.5%。 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 2023下半年净利率边际略有走低，预计系翻人工成本占比提升所致。2023H2 S09805211 ...

Financial Performance - Haidilao reported a revenue of HK$3.2 billion for the first half of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[4]. - The company achieved a net profit of HK$500 million, a significant increase of 25% compared to the same period last year[4]. - Future guidance estimates a revenue growth of 20% for the full year 2023, driven by increased customer traffic and new store openings[4]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the Group recorded revenue from continuing operations of RMB 18,885.9 million, representing an increase of 24.6% compared to RMB 15,155.5 million for the same period in 2022[21]. - The Group achieved a net profit of RMB 2,258.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, a significant increase compared to RMB 72.3 million for the same period in 2022[21]. - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2023, was RMB 18,885.9 million, a 24.1% increase from RMB 15,155.5 million in the same period of 2022[34]. - Revenue from Haidilao restaurant operations accounted for 95.0% of total revenue, increasing by 25.4% from RMB 14,305.7 million in 2022 to RMB 17,935.4 million in 2023[35]. Customer Engagement - User data indicated that the number of active customers reached 12 million, up 10% from the previous year[4]. - Haidilao restaurants served a total of 174.6 million customers in the first half of 2023, with a table turnover rate of 3.3 times per day[22]. - The same store table turnover rate was 3.5 times per day during the same period[22]. - The membership base exceeded 10 million, allowing for more precise promotional content and improved customer repurchase rates[28][29]. - Same store sales for Haidilao restaurants reached RMB 12,286.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, up from RMB 10,591.3 million in 2022[42]. Expansion and Innovation - Haidilao plans to open 50 new restaurants in 2023, expanding its footprint in both domestic and international markets[4]. - The company is investing HK$200 million in new technology to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[4]. - Haidilao is focusing on menu innovation, with plans to introduce 10 new dishes by the end of 2023[4]. - The company launched 9 nationwide spring and summer limited products and 143 regional featured new products in the first half of 2023[25][26]. - The Group opened five new Haidilao restaurants, reopened 24 previously suspended restaurants, and closed 18 under-performing restaurants in the first half of 2023[22]. Financial Health - Haidilao's cash flow from operations improved by 30%, indicating better financial health and sustainability[4]. - Total assets increased to RMB 23,123.3 million as of June 30, 2023, compared to RMB 21,439.2 million as of December 31, 2022[20]. - Equity attributable to owners of the Company rose to RMB 9,300.7 million as of June 30, 2023, from RMB 7,443.2 million as of December 31, 2022[20]. - Total liabilities decreased slightly to RMB 13,808.5 million as of June 30, 2023, from RMB 13,983.1 million as of December 31, 2022[20]. - The Group's profit before tax for the six months ended June 30, 2023, was RMB 2,813.8 million, compared to RMB 202.1 million for the same period in 2022[21]. Cost Management - The company implemented effective cost control measures to enhance restaurant profitability while maintaining service quality and employee benefits[29][30]. - Raw materials and consumables used increased by 18.7% to RMB 7,685.0 million, but as a percentage of revenue, it decreased from 42.7% to 40.7%[48]. - Staff costs rose by 8.6% to RMB 5,769.3 million, while the percentage of revenue decreased from 35.0% to 30.5%[50]. - Rentals and related expenses increased by 18.4% to RMB 200.4 million, maintaining a stable percentage of revenue at 1.1%[51]. - Utilities expenses increased by 20.5% to RMB 605.4 million, with a slight decrease in percentage of revenue from 3.3% to 3.2%[52]. Shareholding and Governance - As of June 30, 2023, Mr. Zhang Yong held approximately 60.35% of the total issued share capital, amounting to 3,363,658,743 ordinary shares[101]. - The Group has no significant contingent liabilities or pending litigation that could adversely affect its business or financial condition as of June 30, 2023[89]. - The Company has complied with the Corporate Governance Code during the six months ended June 30, 2023[130]. - No incidents of non-compliance with the Model Code were noted among employees during the six months ended June 30, 2023[129]. - The shareholding structure indicates a significant concentration of ownership, with UBS Trustees (B.V.I.) Limited being a key stakeholder[121]. Future Outlook - The Group plans to continue identifying potential strategic investment opportunities and seek acquisitions of high-quality target businesses and assets to create synergies[94]. - Future initiatives include enhancing the dining experience, improving service capabilities, and investing in innovation and new technology[99]. - The company is focused on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings, as indicated by ongoing investments in new technologies and product development[167].