营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服 务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞(06862)， 较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合 理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业 如海底捞(06862)，较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元 及"买入"评级。 ...

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻台率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，并将于明年第一季终止部分亏损试点项 目。 花旗发表研究报告指，中央经济工作会议强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力， 预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞，较快餐企业更能受惠。 该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司；该行同时 对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

12 Dec 2025 01:08:59 ET │ 12 pages Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Top Buy in China Restaurant Industry; Open 30D Positive Catalyst Watch CITI'S TAKE In the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded yesterday (Xinhua, Dec 11th), the government highlighted its plan to "eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption and boost service consumption" as one of the priorities in pro-consumption policy execution in 2026E. With this context, we reasonably expect government's easing of anti-e ...

Core Insights - The rise of hot pot dining in supermarkets and markets is becoming a new trend, with major players like Hema, Yonghui, and Pang Donglai entering the market [1][4][14] - The hot pot dining experience in supermarkets offers a unique combination of fresh ingredients and flexible meal options, appealing to consumers seeking social dining experiences [1][7][14] Supermarket Hot Pot Business - Supermarkets are increasingly incorporating hot pot dining into their offerings, leveraging existing food court spaces to add hot pot services with minimal additional investment [1][4] - Hema's hot pot dining includes both set menus and self-service options, with prices for hot pot sets ranging from 78 to 88 yuan [4][14] - Yonghui focuses on individual hot pot meals with a low price point, offering a variety of self-selected ingredients at competitive prices [5][14] - Pang Donglai operates a brand-style hot pot service, allowing customers to order from a menu, with prices for vegetable platters starting as low as 9 yuan [6][14] Consumer Trends and Preferences - The average spending per customer at these hot pot dining options ranges from 60 to 100 yuan, catering to various consumer needs [5][7] - The appeal of supermarket hot pot lies in its cost-effectiveness and the freshness of ingredients, which can be more appealing than traditional hot pot restaurants [7][14] - The hot pot dining experience in supermarkets is designed to attract young consumers and families, with Hema targeting office workers and Yonghui focusing on residential areas [14][15] Market Dynamics and Competition - The hot pot market is experiencing significant growth, with Hema reporting a 59.7% year-on-year increase in hot pot-related sales since November [13][14] - The competition is intensifying as more supermarkets and local hot pot restaurants enter the market, with a focus on fresh ingredients and unique dining experiences [14][15] - New hot pot concepts are emerging, including market-based hot pot restaurants that allow customers to select their own ingredients, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards fresh and customizable dining options [8][12][14] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the growth potential, challenges remain for scaling these new hot pot concepts, particularly in terms of regional taste preferences and operational logistics [14][15] - The integration of hot pot dining into supermarkets represents a significant shift in the food retail landscape, blurring the lines between grocery shopping and dining experiences [15]

Group 1 - The pre-prepared food market is experiencing a paradox of consumer trust issues and capital enthusiasm, driven by urbanization and the demand for convenient dining [3][4]. - The "zero additives" concept is being phased out in favor of "clean label" standards, emphasizing ingredient transparency and natural prioritization [5][6]. - The energy drink industry is undergoing rapid transformation with ingredient innovation and scene segmentation, focusing on health trends and diverse flavors [7][8]. Group 2 - The nut import market in China is projected to reach $2.386 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in demand for high-end varieties like pistachios [10]. - The beverage market is facing a downturn, with sales declining due to the rise of on-demand drink services and aggressive pricing strategies [14][15]. - The convenience food industry in China is shifting towards value creation, with a market size expected to grow from 673.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 960.3 billion yuan by 2026 [18]. Group 3 - The dairy industry is seeing a shift from ambient milk to fresh milk, with companies like Bright Dairy exploring new growth areas in the pet food market [20]. - Wangwang is facing challenges in the milk market, prompting the company to diversify into AD calcium milk to regain market share [21]. - The plant-based food sector is experiencing a downturn, with companies focusing on technological innovation and localization to meet market demands [17]. Group 4 - JD.com is enhancing its pre-prepared food strategy, aiming to strengthen its supply chain and align with the growing demand for ready-to-eat meals [31]. - China Resources Beverage is entering the ready-to-drink coffee market, competing against established brands like Nestlé and Starbucks [32]. - Wanglaoji is diversifying into the functional beverage market by acquiring distribution rights for Red Bull in southern China, aiming for significant sales growth [33].

Core Insights - Haidilao is testing its new "Dapaidang Hotpot" concept in Guangzhou, aiming to create a dining experience that blends hotpot with a market-style atmosphere, appealing to both young and family customers [1] - The first Dapaidang Hotpot store features over 200 products displayed in distinct functional areas, with pricing based on a per-plate system using color-coded tableware [1] - The restaurant emphasizes a relaxed and engaging dining experience, allowing customers to see fresh ingredients and make their own selections [1] Company Developments - The Dapaidang Hotpot is part of Haidilao's strategy to diversify its dining offerings, with plans to open additional locations in cities like Qingdao, Shanghai, Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Nanning [2] - Haidilao has also launched a new sushi brand, "Rushi Sushi," in Hangzhou, indicating a broader expansion into various dining segments [2] - As of June 30, Haidilao operated 1,363 restaurants, including 41 franchise locations [2] Financial Performance - In its latest financial report, Haidilao reported a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan, down 13.7% [2] - The company's core operating profit was 2.408 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% decline compared to the previous year [2] - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" has successfully launched 14 new restaurant brands, with a total of 126 stores under this initiative, generating 0.597 billion yuan in revenue, a significant increase of 227% year-on-year [3]

Group 1 - The restaurant stocks are performing well, with notable increases: Jiumaojiu (09922) up 4.82%, Haidilao (06862) up 4.14%, Yum China (09987) up 2.63%, Xiaobai (00520) up 2.50%, Xiaocaiyuan (00999) up 2.54%, and Nayuki (02150) up 1.92% [1][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2] - The rise in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with household appliances and clothing prices increasing by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively, while prices for air tickets, domestic services, and dining out rose by 7.0%, 2.4%, and 1.2% [1][2] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities forecasts that the share of domestic service consumption in total household consumption has recovered to 46%, nearing the critical structural threshold of 50%, indicating a potential rapid growth phase for the industry [1][2] - Service consumption is expected to become a key driver for domestic demand and consumption recovery, offering higher growth elasticity and user stickiness compared to goods consumption due to its personalized interaction and unique experiences [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on chain restaurants and tea beverage companies, highlighting that those with brand advantages and supply chain strengths will have greater development potential, particularly those with scale effects and performance elasticity [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the potential for short-term expansion and long-term undervaluation in the restaurant industry, highlighting the need to focus on operational improvements and high valuation during expansion periods [1] - Key recommended stocks include Yum China (09987) for its operational capabilities, Little Garden (00999) for its strong team and supply chain during store expansion, Haidilao (06862) for its execution during reform, and Dashihua (01405) for its high potential in store expansion [1] - The service consumption policy is expected to benefit the restaurant sector significantly, with specific measures introduced to boost service consumption, making restaurants a core focus of these initiatives [1] Group 2 - The restaurant sector is showing a differentiated performance, with its revenue share in the retail sector increasing and demonstrating higher elasticity compared to the overall retail sector [2] - In 2024, restaurant revenue is projected to account for 12% of total retail sales, with growth rates of 20% and 5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, outpacing the overall retail growth rates of 7% and 4% [2] Group 3 - The Japanese restaurant industry is experiencing high valuation premiums, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements alongside multi-format integration [3] - The external dining industry in Japan has faced a decline since its peak in 1997, with a recovery only starting in 2006, and the restaurant sector's market capitalization in consumer services has increased by 9 percentage points since 2014 [3] - Key changes in the Japanese restaurant sector during downturns include balancing extreme cost-effectiveness with consumer experience, achieving high store efficiency through supply chain optimization, and the emergence of restaurant giants through multi-category integration [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong restaurant sector showed active performance with significant gains in various stocks following the Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasized domestic demand and consumer spending recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai Xiaonan Guo increased by over 7% [2] - Jiumaojiu rose nearly 5% [2] - Other notable gains included Yum China, Nayuki Tea, and Haidilao, each rising close to 3% [1][2] - Xiabuxiabu saw a 2.5% increase, while Xiaocaiyuan and Hite International also experienced upward movement [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Central Economic Work Conference, held on December 10-11, outlined key policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and addressing income growth for urban and rural residents [1] - The meeting's positive signals are expected to facilitate the ongoing recovery of restaurant consumption, benefiting the sector as the overall consumer environment shows signs of gradual improvement [1] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities highlighted the importance of focusing on the medium to long-term consumption goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a short-term focus on specific policies related to consumption expected to be implemented by 2026 [1]