Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Leap Motor's operational performance improved in the third quarter, with a year-on-year sales increase of 95% to 86,000 units and a revenue growth of 74% to 9.86 billion yuan [1] - The growth is attributed to the support of the old car replacement subsidy policy and the company's continuous launch of new models to meet consumer demand, with expected monthly sales to remain between 25,000 to 40,000 units [1] Group 2 - The firm maintains a "Outperform" rating for Leap Motor and raises the target price from 30.1 HKD to 46.1 HKD [2]

新消费本周跨境出海的主要内容有：10月汽车出口54.2万辆 同比增长11.1%；比亚迪计划明年初起在韩 国推出乘用车；厦门空港跨境电商出口包裹年内突破1亿件。 行业要闻 零跑汽车计划在2025年底前实现欧洲本地化生产 由于欧盟加征关税，零跑汽车加速推进本地化生产计划，计划在欧洲实现本地化制造，以降低关税和运 输成本，其预计在2025年年底前实现本地化生产。据悉，该公司计划在2025年实现50万台或更高的销量 目标，并通过B系列车型的推出进一步提升市场份额，预计毛利率将达到10%以上。 厦门空港跨境电商出口包裹年内突破1亿件 据海关总署消息，受益"双11"与"黑五"促销叠加，厦门空港口岸迎来跨境电商包裹出口高峰。截至11月 11日，厦门海关年内共监管经厦门空港口岸出口的跨境电商包裹数突破1亿件。据了解，希音、拼多 多、菜鸟等头部跨境电商平台先后落地厦门空港，厦门空港口岸跨境电商货物出口单量继续保持快速增 长态势。 比亚迪海狮07EV在欧洲正式上市 11月12日，比亚迪在德国法兰克福举办海狮07EV（BYD SEALION 7）欧洲暨德国上市发布会。这是比 亚迪在欧洲推出的第七款纯电动汽车。海狮07EV预计明年向 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin and a reduction in net loss for Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 8.1%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year and 5.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The company achieved record-high vehicle deliveries in Q3 2024, with 86,000 units delivered, representing a 94% year-on-year increase and a 62% quarter-on-quarter increase [7] - The company is expanding its global presence, having launched models in Europe and established a comprehensive partnership with Stellantis [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.86 billion yuan, a 74% increase year-on-year and an 84% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The net loss for Q3 2024 was 690 million yuan, down from 990 million yuan in Q3 2023 and 1.2 billion yuan in Q2 2024, indicating a narrowing loss [5][6] Sales and Delivery - The sales structure improved, leading to a quarter-on-quarter increase in average revenue per vehicle, estimated at approximately 114,000 yuan, which is a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter [7] - The sales volume for different models in Q3 2024 was as follows: T03 (17,000 units), C10 (5,000 units), C11 (21,000 units), C16 (22,000 units), and others [7] Global Expansion - The company has completed EU WVTA certification for models C10 and T03, officially launching in Europe in September 2024 [8] - As of October 2024, the company has opened 339 dealerships in Europe, all equipped for sales and after-sales services, with plans to expand into Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and South America by 2025 [8] Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts sales of 287,000 and 518,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with projected revenues of 33.3 billion and 59.1 billion yuan [9] - The estimated net profit for 2024 is projected to be -3.4 billion yuan, improving to -213 million yuan in 2025, and turning positive with a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan in 2026 [10][12]

零跑汽车（09863.HK） 乘用车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 14 日 国内基本盘毛利率大幅改善，出海进程加速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales volume and higher average selling prices (ASP) [2][3] - The company is making progress in its globalization strategy and accelerating its smart driving technology development [4] - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 results, reflecting a strong position in the mainstream new energy vehicle market [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 9.86 billion, with year-on-year growth of 74.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 83.9% [2] - The net loss attributable to equity holders for Q3 was RMB 690 million, an improvement from RMB 990 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.2 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net loss for Q3 was RMB 540 million, compared to RMB 790 million in Q3 2023 and RMB 1.08 billion in Q2 2024 [2] Sales and Margins - The company sold 84,000 vehicles in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.4% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 was 8.1%, with improvements driven by economies of scale and a higher proportion of high-margin models [3] - The company reported a reduction in per-vehicle loss to RMB 8,000 in Q3, down from RMB 22,000 in both Q3 2023 and Q2 2024 [3] Globalization and Technology Development - As of October 2024, the company has opened 339 dealerships in Europe, all offering sales and after-sales services [4] - The company plans to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and South America markets, aiming for over 500 channels by 2025 [4] - The company is investing in advanced smart driving technology, with plans to implement high-level driving functions based on a large model by mid-2025 [4] Financial Projections - The revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB -3.33 billion, RMB 1.0 billion, and RMB 2.41 billion, respectively [5] - The company is positioned well in the new energy vehicle market, with clear advantages in R&D, channel management, and supply chain [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a breakeven point in domestic vehicle sales earlier than anticipated, with local manufacturing overseas likely to boost export growth. The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards due to strong order backlog and competitive pricing of B platform models, with projected revenues of 32.49 billion, 55.84 billion, and 77.72 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 94.0%, 71.9%, and 39.2% [2][3] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve rapidly, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts adjusted to -2.83 billion, -690 million, and 1.87 billion yuan for 2024-2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [2][3] - The B platform models are expected to solidify the company's competitive edge in terms of smart technology, with the new B10 model set to launch in 2025, which is anticipated to drive sales growth in the coming years [2][3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 9.86 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 74% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of approximately 15,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan [2] - The Non-GAAP net loss for Q3 2024 was 540 million yuan, better than expected, driven by a gross margin increase of 5.3 percentage points to 8.1% [2] - The company delivered 86,200 vehicles in Q3 2024, with a target of 250,000 deliveries for the full year, indicating strong demand and order growth [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In October 2024, the company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries, reaching 38,177 units, which is a 109.7% growth. The monthly order volume also set a record, exceeding 42,000 units, with all three models C10, C11, and C16 each receiving over 10,000 orders [3] - The B10 model was officially unveiled overseas, marking a key step in the company's global strategy. The B10 is designed for young global users and is built on the latest LEAP3.5 technology architecture, emphasizing intelligence, style, fun, and quality. The company has established over 200 dealerships across 13 European countries and plans to expand to 500 dealerships by the end of 2025 [3] - The company remains among the top three in sales among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with continuous improvements in user experience. Recent models have received high praise from consumers and media, and the C16 model has won multiple awards for its chassis and body design [4] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.703 billion RMB in 2024, -1.08 billion RMB in 2025, and a positive profit of 854 million RMB in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 46.37 in 2026 [4][5] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 29.906 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 78.58%. By 2026, the revenue is projected to reach 79.932 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 47.47% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve from -4.216 billion RMB in 2023 to a positive 854 million RMB in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [5][6] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 32.563 billion RMB in 2024 to 61.452 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 9.86 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 89.3% and a year-on-year growth of 74.3%, despite a net loss attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan [2] - The gross margin improved to 8.1% in Q3 2024, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product sales structure, ongoing cost management, and economies of scale from increased sales [2] - The C-series products are performing well, with over 40,000 new orders in October 2024, and the company expects to exceed its annual sales target of 250,000 vehicles [3] - The company plans to unveil a new model, the B10, at the Guangzhou Auto Show on November 15, 2024, featuring advanced technology for high-level assisted driving [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of -3.703 billion yuan in 2024, -1.080 billion yuan in 2025, and 854 million yuan in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 46.37 in 2026 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly from 16.747 billion yuan in 2023 to 79.932 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 295.41% in 2023 and 78.58% in 2024 [4][6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 0.48% in 2023 to 14.00% in 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to turn positive by 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows significant improvement in profitability, with revenue reaching 9.86 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 83.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders narrowed to a loss of 690 million yuan, improving by 300 million yuan year-on-year and 510 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 8.1%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year and 5.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales volume and a higher proportion of high-value C series products [3]. - The company achieved a significant increase in sales volume, with Q3 2024 sales reaching 86,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 94.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61.7%. The C series accounted for 78.3% of total sales in Q3 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.87 billion, 49.24 billion, and 65.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 78%, 65%, and 32% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -3.80 billion, -2.74 billion, and 130 million yuan, indicating a trend of narrowing losses and a return to profitability by 2026 [5][6]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q3 2024 was 114,000 yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% due to changes in sales structure [3]. - The company plans to expand its sales network, aiming to exceed 700 sales outlets by the end of 2024, up from 493 outlets as of September 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 595 billion, based on a 1x 2025 estimated price-to-sales ratio [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved impressive sales performance in Q3, delivering 86,165 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 94% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 62%. Revenue for Q3 increased by 74.3% to RMB 9.86 billion, driven by the introduction of higher-priced models and improved cost management [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 significantly exceeded expectations, rising to 8.1%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percentage points, with gross profit doubling to approximately RMB 800 million [1][3]. - The company is expected to exceed its annual sales target of 250,000 vehicles, with Q4 sales projected to surpass 110,000 units due to ongoing trade-in policies and new model launches [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q3, approximately 78.3% of the vehicles sold were from the C series, indicating an improved product mix. Monthly sales have shown consistent growth, with October sales reaching 38,177 units [2]. - The company plans to launch three new B series models in 2025, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales growth [2]. Production Capacity - The current production capacity at the Jinhua factory is nearly maxed out at around 40,000 units per month. A new factory in Hangzhou is under construction, aiming for production in the first half of 2025, with plans for a third factory to be operational by late 2025 or early 2026 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates achieving a gross margin of over 5% for the full year, with Q1-Q3 gross margin averaging 4.8%. Projections for 2025 suggest an average gross margin of around 9% [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 32.24 billion, RMB 55.05 billion, and RMB 81.72 billion, respectively, with net profit margins expected to improve from -9% in 2024 to 2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Expansion - The company has set an overseas sales target of 8,000 to 12,000 units for 2024, with plans for localized production in Europe by the end of 2025. The establishment of 339 dealerships in Europe has already surpassed initial targets [3][4].