Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects and effective cost control, with a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan and a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, setting a new quarterly sales record [1] - Free cash flow turned positive in Q1, indicating improved financial health [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company plans to launch several new models, including the Mona M03 Max on May 28, which features advanced smart driving capabilities [1] - Upcoming models include the G7 SUV in June and a new generation P7 luxury coupe in Q3, with plans for mass production of the Kunpeng super extended-range electric vehicle in Q4 [1] - The company aims to enhance average selling price (ASP) and profitability through competitive pricing and rich product configurations [1] Group 3: AI and Overseas Market Development - The company is developing a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with plans to launch the fifth-generation humanoid robot equipped with the Turing chip by 2026 [2] - In Q1, the company achieved over 370% year-on-year sales growth in overseas markets and opened over 40 new overseas stores [2] - The company plans to localize production for the Xiaopeng G6 and Xiaopeng X9 models in Indonesia by the second half of 2025, targeting a doubling of overseas sales for the year [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Current stock prices correspond to 1.6x P/S for Hong Kong shares and 1.8x P/S for US shares in 2025 [2] - The company maintains a target price of 108 HKD for Hong Kong shares and 28 USD for US shares, indicating potential upside of 39% and 26% respectively [2]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant increase in April 2025 vehicle deliveries, with a total of 35,045 units delivered, representing a year-on-year growth of 273% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [1][2] - The company is enhancing its product lineup with the upgraded 2025 Xiaopeng X9 and P7+, which feature advanced configurations and technology, ensuring strong delivery capabilities moving forward [1][2] Delivery Performance - In April 2025, Xiaopeng Motors delivered 35,045 vehicles, marking a 273% increase year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [1] - The Xiaopeng MONA M03 has achieved over 100,000 cumulative deliveries in just 8 months, while the P7+ has reached its 50,000th unit in 5 months [1] Product Development - The 2025 Xiaopeng X9 has been upgraded with new configurations, priced between 359,800 to 419,800 yuan, while the P7+ features a long-range Max flagship version equipped with advanced AI battery technology [1] - The company is set to mass-produce its Turing AI chip in Q2, enhancing its smart driving capabilities [1] Market Expansion - The 2025 Xiaopeng X9 received 6,000 orders within 7 days of its launch in mainland China, setting a record for pure electric MPVs, and over 1,500 orders in various Asia-Pacific regions [2] - Xiaopeng Motors is accelerating its global strategy, with strong product performance expected to drive sales growth [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts vehicle sales of 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.7% [2] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 1.2 billion, 6 billion, and 9.42 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in vehicle deliveries and revenue, despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 vehicle deliveries reached 94,008 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [1]. - Q1 revenue was 15.81 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 141.4% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.9% [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 153,000 yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year and 4.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - R&D and SG&A expenses for Q1 were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - Q1 gross margin was 15.6%, with automotive gross margin at 10.5%, both showing improvements compared to previous periods [1][2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 660 million yuan, with a calculated loss of 7,000 yuan per vehicle [1]. Operational Analysis and Outlook - The reduction in losses was attributed to strong sales of popular models M03 and P7, which maintained robust order reserves [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin improved despite a higher proportion of M03 sales, as the company benefited from the redesign of G6 and G9 models, enhancing profitability [2]. - Q2 may face some pressure due to increased market competition, but the company expects stable sales driven by rising export volumes and new vehicle deliveries [2]. - The company is focused on optimizing its vehicle structure, with expectations for improved profitability in Q2 due to the full delivery cycle of redesigned models [2]. - For the full year, the market's focus will be on new vehicle launches, with the company’s strong product development capabilities and technology positioning being key factors [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Xiaopeng Motors is recognized as a leading player in the domestic smart driving sector, with significant improvements in fundamentals and a strong new vehicle cycle [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 94.62 billion yuan, 153.27 billion yuan, and 175.70 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth potential and market positioning [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 performance with revenue of 15.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141%, and a narrowing net loss of 660 million yuan, aligning with expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 gross margin reached a record high of 15.6%, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][2] - The company sold 94,000 new vehicles in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 331%, contributing to the highest quarterly revenue [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) and gross profit per vehicle were 15,300 yuan and 1,600 yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 40% and an increase of 15% [2] Sales and Delivery Outlook - The company has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for six consecutive months, with April deliveries reaching 35,000 units [3] - The company plans to launch three new models from May to August, which are expected to significantly boost sales [3] - The company anticipates Q2 deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, setting a new delivery guidance record [2] Market Expansion and Growth Potential - The company has exported 11,000 vehicles from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 330%, with exports accounting for 9% of total sales [3] - The company is pursuing multiple growth avenues, including a range-extended SUV and flying cars, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 85.6 billion, 97.7 billion, and 124.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The target price has been raised to 119.99 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's new vehicle cycle and technological advantages [3]

Core Insights - The long-term returns of a stock are closely tied to the underlying business's performance, with a business earning 6% on capital over 40 years yielding similar returns for investors, regardless of initial purchase price [1] - A business that earns 18% on capital over 20 to 30 years can still provide satisfactory returns even if purchased at a high price [1] - The impact of taxes on investment returns is significant, with a one-time tax at the end of a 30-year investment period resulting in a 13.3% annual return, compared to a 9.75% annual return when taxes are paid annually [1] Tax Implications - The difference in tax treatment can lead to a substantial variation in compounded returns over long holding periods, highlighting the importance of tax strategies in investment planning [1] - Holding investments in great companies for extended periods can provide a significant advantage due to the way income taxes are structured [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International maintains a "Buy" rating for Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) with a target price of HKD 115, reflecting a 2.5x price-to-sales ratio for the fiscal year 2025, indicating a higher valuation compared to other leading new energy vehicle manufacturers due to faster growth prospects [1] Group 1 - The forecasted revenue CAGR for Xpeng Motors from fiscal years 2024 to 2027 is 56%, significantly outpacing its peers [1] - The launch of new vehicles starting in May is expected to act as a catalyst for the company's stock price, with anticipated improvements in delivery capacity, average selling price (ASP), and gross margin [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB 660 million, narrowing by 51.5% year-on-year and 50.1% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with the firm's expectations [1] Group 2 - The strong product cycle initiated in May is expected to enhance the product lineup, with the company projected to achieve its first profit in the fourth quarter [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 15.6% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points. The net loss narrowed to RMB 660 million, a reduction of 51% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle and enhanced smart features, projecting revenues of RMB 90.9 billion, RMB 130.3 billion, and RMB 152.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.1 billion, RMB 3.2 billion, and RMB 6.7 billion for the same years [9]. - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a 331% increase year-on-year and a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter, with key models contributing significantly to sales [9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022 to 2027, the company’s projected revenue shows a significant growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 90.9 billion in 2025, up from RMB 40.9 billion in 2024, representing a 122% increase [3][7]. - The gross profit is projected to increase from RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.9 billion in 2025, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [3][7]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to a loss of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 [3][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.9x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 98.58, based on peer comparisons [9]. - The company’s stock has traded within a range of HKD 26.05 to HKD 97.45 over the past 52 weeks, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between GAC and Huawei marks a significant step in the innovation of the automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, showcasing the potential of strong partnerships between traditional automotive manufacturers and technology giants [2][3]. Industry Overview - Guangdong's new energy vehicle (NEV) production reached 3.6178 million units in 2024, a 43% increase year-on-year, accounting for 25% of the national total [5]. - The province has established a complete NEV industry chain with over 12,000 related enterprises, covering everything from raw materials to manufacturing and after-market services [4][5]. - The automotive manufacturing sector in Guangdong achieved a revenue of 1.281273 trillion yuan in 2024, with a profit of 31.806 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the top producer in China for eight consecutive years [5]. Technological Innovation - Guangdong's R&D expenditure reached approximately 510 billion yuan in 2024, with a research intensity of about 3.6%, and the region has around 77,000 high-tech enterprises [6]. - The integration of automotive and ICT industries has strengthened Guangdong's position in the NEV market, facilitating technological advancements in key areas such as power batteries and intelligent networking [6]. Policy Support - The Guangdong government has implemented various policies to promote high-quality development in the NEV sector, including tax incentives and infrastructure support [7]. - The "Guangdong Province Development Action Plan for Strategic Pillar Industries (2023-2025)" aims for automotive manufacturing revenue to exceed 1.35 trillion yuan and NEV production to surpass 3 million units by 2025 [7]. Global Expansion - Guangdong's NEV exports reached 258,000 units in the previous year, a 37.3% increase, with a total value of 40.38 billion yuan, reflecting a strategic shift towards internationalization [8]. - Companies like GAC Aion are establishing factories in Thailand and Indonesia, while BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia and Europe [9]. - The collaboration with international firms and the development of advanced technologies, such as the blade battery technology from BYD, are enhancing Guangdong's competitive edge in the global market [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current closing price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales increasing by 2.7% to 94,000 units [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion by 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses projected for 2025 [4][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX and the new generation P7, which are expected to enhance sales and improve margins. The introduction of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle in Q4 2025 is anticipated to have a positive impact on gross margins [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong positioning among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with expectations for continued sales growth driven by new model launches and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which will enhance its competitive position and stimulate sales growth [7][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [4]. - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q1 2025 was 24.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [4]. Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, mainly due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB, respectively [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a net profit for 2026 of 4.6 billion RMB, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/S ratio of 1.4 in 2025, decreasing to 0.8 by 2027 [9].