对行业短期前景愈发谨慎，因市场需求走弱速度超预期，2026年风险信号增多。交银国际表示，4季度 集中放量后，2026年1季度或回到季节性淡季，建议投资者把握结构行情同时保持审慎，关注短期波 动。 对行业短期前景愈发谨慎，因市场需求走弱速度超预期，2026年风险信号增多。交银国际表示，4季度 集中放量后，2026年1季度或回到季节性淡季，建议投资者把握结构行情同时保持审慎，关注短期波 动。 金吾财讯 | 汽车股普遍下滑，广汽集团(02238)跌3.86%，理想汽车-W(02015)跌3.37%，蔚来-SW(09866) 跌2.41%，北京汽车(01958)跌2.34%，小鹏汽车-W(09868)跌2.25%，零跑汽车(09863)跌1.23%，赛力斯 (09927)跌1.12%。 金吾财讯 | 汽车股普遍下滑，广汽集团(02238)跌3.86%，理想汽车-W(02015)跌3.37%，蔚来-SW(09866) 跌2.41%，北京汽车(01958)跌2.34%，小鹏汽车-W(09868)跌2.25%，零跑汽车(09863)跌1.23%，赛力斯 (09927)跌1.12%。 ...

Core Insights - On December 4, 2025, Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 3.75 billion, 2.939 billion, and 2.678 billion respectively [1] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 2.379 billion, 2.316 billion, and 1.521 billion respectively [1] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 3.75 billion, net buy of -1.919 billion - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 2.939 billion, net buy of -70.44 million - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 2.678 billion, net buy of -562 million - Other notable companies include Yingfu Fund (02800) with a trading amount of 2.342 billion and a net buy of 2.107 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 2.379 billion, net buy of 69.27 million - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 2.316 billion, net buy of 794 million - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 1.521 billion, net buy of 573 million - Other notable companies include SMIC (00981) with a trading amount of 1.07 billion and a net buy of -79.37 million [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a collective decline in Hong Kong automotive stocks, with significant drops observed in major companies [1] Group 2 - GAC Group experienced a decline of over 4% [1] - Li Auto saw a decrease of over 3% [1] - NIO and Xpeng Motors both fell nearly 3% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of 14.8 billion HKD on December 4, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net selling pressure [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top net bought stocks included 盈富基金 (02800) with a net buy of 26.05 billion HKD, 药明生物 (02269) with a net buy of 3.15 billion HKD, and 小米集团-W (01810) with a net buy of 2.31 billion HKD [4][5]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included 腾讯 (00700) with a net sell of 13.45 billion HKD, 中芯国际 (00981) with a net sell of 4.58 billion HKD, and 三花智控 (02050) with a net sell of 5657.75 million HKD [5][6]. Group 2: Market Insights - 中金公司 suggests that the upcoming US-China meetings may support risk assets, recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks ahead of the meetings [4]. - 浦银国际 expresses optimism for the CXO sector by 2026, citing potential growth in overseas biopharmaceutical financing due to anticipated interest rate cuts [4]. - The semiconductor industry shows divergence, with 华虹半导体 (01347) receiving a net buy of 5363 million HKD, while 中芯国际 (00981) faced significant net selling [5]. Group 3: Company Developments - 小米集团's president announced significant investments in AI, indicating progress beyond expectations in AI models and applications [5]. - 优必选 (09880) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 卓世科技, aiming for the deployment of 10,000 robots over the next five years [6]. - 中海油 (00883) reported the production commencement of a new oil field project, expecting peak production of approximately 16,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [5].

连续下跌的小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)有望终止连跌行情，盘前涨近4%报19.6美元。消息上，小鹏汽车宣布， 小鹏X9超级增程正式全球首发搭载华为DriveONE下一代增程发电机。这是华为面向高压纯电平台开发 的全栈高集成油冷发电机首次量产上车。作为鲲鹏超级增程系统核心部件，其与小鹏自研800V高压架 构协同，支撑X9实现1602km综合续航。 | XPEV 小鹏汽车 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 18 870 L -0.790 -4.02% | | 收盘价 12/03 15:59 美东 | | 19.600↑ 0.730 +3.87% | | 盘前价 12/04 04:37 美东 | | 三分 24 字 8 9 日 9 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 19.560 | 开盘价 19.540 | 成交量 1594.5万 | | 最低价 18.545 | 昨收价 19.660 | 成交额 3.01亿 | | 平均价 18.907 | 市盈率TM 亏损 | 总市值 180.19亿元 | | 振 幅 5.16% | 市盈率(静) 亏损 | 总股本 9.55亿 | | 换手率 2.38% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total deliveries reached 392,000 units, up 155.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The launch of the new X9 extended-range model has led to a rapid increase in deliveries, with November deliveries for the X9 increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model has gained significant popularity, with over 50% of orders coming from northern regions [6]. - The company is expected to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, which would represent a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Projected revenue for this period is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 18.9% and a month-on-month decline of 12.6%. Total deliveries from January to November reached 392,000 units, marking a 155.5% increase year-on-year [2][4]. New Product Launches - The new X9 extended-range model has been well-received, with November deliveries increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model set a record for daily orders shortly after its launch, indicating strong market demand [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong sales cycle driven by new product launches and advancements in AI technology. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 76.9 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9X, supporting the "Buy" rating [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates a weakening in wholesale numbers for some domestic car manufacturers in November, with a forecasted year-on-year decline of 8.7% in retail sales of passenger vehicles due to high base effects and reduced subsidies impacting the industry in Q4 [1] Automotive Sector Summary - The overall retail sales of passenger vehicles in November are expected to remain flat month-on-month but show a significant year-on-year decline [1] - China Merchants Securities International suggests that market sentiment is currently very pessimistic, indicating a potential opportunity for forward-looking investments [1] Stock Recommendations - The firm recommends Geely Automobile as the top pick due to high earnings certainty and undervaluation, with a target price of HKD 32 [1] - BYD and Xpeng Motors are also recommended with target prices of HKD 130 and HKD 115 respectively [1] - In the automotive parts sector, Minth Group and Fuyao Glass are recommended with target prices of HKD 42 and HKD 86 respectively [1] - All five stocks are rated as "Buy" [1] Long-term Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook on the "AI + Automotive" and "AI + Robotics" sectors, highlighting potential catalysts in Q1 of the following year, including the IPO of Yushutech and the release of Tesla's third-generation robot [1] - Recommended stocks in the AI sector include Youbixuan, Horizon Robotics, and Hesai Technology, with target prices of HKD 172, HKD 13.8, and USD 28 respectively, all rated as "Buy" [1] - The report also includes a recommendation for Extreme Wisdom [1]

Core Insights - The automotive industry in November showed strong sales performance across various companies, with a notable focus on electric vehicle (EV) transitions and global expansion strategies [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Traditional Domestic Brands - BYD achieved a record monthly sales of 480,000 units, maintaining the top position, with overseas sales surpassing 130,000 units, marking a historical high [1] - Geely sold 310,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with its Galaxy series seeing a 76% growth [1] - Chery reported sales of 273,000 units, with EV sales reaching 117,000 units, a 50.1% increase, and export sales of 137,000 units, up 30.3% [1][2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Performance - Changan's November sales reached 283,000 units, with EV sales at 125,000 units, a 23% increase [2] - SAIC Group set a new record for EV sales at 209,000 units, reflecting a 38.8% year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: New Forces in the Automotive Sector - Huawei's HarmonyOS Automotive division delivered 82,000 vehicles in November, a remarkable 89.61% increase, establishing itself as a leader among new entrants [3] - Leap Motor delivered over 70,000 vehicles in November, achieving a cumulative sales milestone of over 500,000 units [3] - Xiaomi's automotive division also exceeded its annual delivery target, with over 40,000 units delivered in November and a total exceeding 350,000 units [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Xpeng and NIO experienced a decline in sales, with Li Auto delivering 33,181 units, a slight increase of 4.45% month-on-month but a 31.92% year-on-year drop [4] - The automotive market is shifting from subsidy-driven growth to a more competitive landscape focused on product capabilities and brand strength, as consumer behavior evolves post-subsidy [4]

Core Insights - The recent Q3 2025 financial reports from Chinese automakers highlight the competitive landscape and strategic shifts within the industry, particularly among the leading new energy vehicle (NEV) companies NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto [1][4] Financial Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a record revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and achieved a gross margin of 20.1%, surpassing NIO's 13.9% and Li Auto's 16.3% [2][3] - NIO's Q3 revenue reached 21.79 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.9%, but still faced a net loss of 3.48 billion yuan, the highest among the three [2][3] - Li Auto generated 27.4 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 36.2% year-on-year, and reported a net loss of 624 million yuan, ending its streak of 11 consecutive profitable quarters [2][3] Strategic Adjustments - NIO is shifting its focus to core automotive operations, reducing investments in non-core businesses, and controlling sales and management expenses [4][5] - Xpeng is pursuing a strategy of "technology integration into the market," expanding into the range-extended vehicle market while maintaining its focus on smart driving [5] - Li Auto is transitioning from a "family-oriented" brand to an "AI-focused" strategy, aiming to build an "embodied intelligence" ecosystem [5] Competitive Landscape - The competition among NEV companies remains intense, with no clear leader emerging in profitability, as companies continue to vie for market share through cost-effectiveness and technological advancements [3][6] - New entrants like Leap Motor and Xiaomi are gaining traction, further intensifying the competitive environment [6] - The industry is evolving from a focus on product features to a comprehensive assessment of product definition, cost control, and brand strategy [6] Future Outlook - The immediate focus for NIO and Xpeng is achieving stable profitability, while Li Auto aims to recover from the MEGA recall incident and ramp up production of its electric models [7] - Long-term success will depend on technological advancements and the ability to adapt to global markets, with companies like Xpeng and NIO already expanding their international presence [7][8] - The NEV sector is entering a new phase of consolidation, where the ability to deliver on profitability promises and navigate technological changes will be crucial for survival [8]

(本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 恒生指数高开0.17%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。京东健康、紫金矿业、携程集团涨逾3%；新能源车概念 股再度走低，理想汽车、小鹏汽车、蔚来均下跌。 ...