以下文章来源于电厂 ，作者翟芳雪 电厂 . 探索科技公司的未知，为你充电 本文来自微信公众号： 电厂 ，作者：翟芳雪，编辑：高宇雷，原文标题：《直营大退潮，腾势、鸿 蒙智行、极氪等品牌三四线门店转为加盟 | 电厂》，题图来自：AI生成 在非一线省会城市见到国产新能源汽车直营店，可能将成为一件难事。 进入四季度，多家新能源汽车品牌传来大面积渠道变革的消息。在社交平台，腾势河北、河南、浙 江、广东等地区多名销售员工表示其所在直营店关店或转让给经销商，其中一名销售对"电厂"表示腾 势或将在全国范围转成经销商渠道，仅保留一线省会城市直营店面。 鸿蒙智行也开始大范围裁撤直营店，广东、四川、江苏等地已开始变革，相关人士向"电厂"透露，鸿 蒙智行直营店未来亦将只在一线城市保留。多名鸿蒙智行销售人员表示，目前其大部分为经销商形 式，直营店中也多为类直营，纯直营很少。 一名广东的鸿蒙智行直营店员工告诉"电厂"，其所在城市被选中转经销商的门店销售，会调去其他直 营门店。比如A店与B店各有10名销售，但A店被改经销商，就全部调去B店，等于B店有20名销售， 从而提高B店的目标，这样造成销售之间的激烈竞争，达到优化的目的。 极氪同样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a globally recognized embodied intelligence company, integrating humanoid robots with the automotive industry as its "third growth curve" following AI and globalization [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [4]. - The net loss for Q3 was 380 million, reduced from 480 million in Q2 and 1.81 billion in the same period last year [4]. - The overall gross margin reached a new high of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company expects to achieve breakeven in Q4, with projected deliveries of 125,000 to 132,000 vehicles and revenue between 21.5 billion and 23 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 33.5% to 42.8% [7]. Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Position - The company plans to launch 7 new models next year, including 4 dual-energy vehicles, to enhance its market presence in the extended-range electric vehicle segment [10][11]. - The MONA M03 currently accounts for 40% of the company's sales, indicating a reliance that poses risks if market competition intensifies [5]. - The extended-range electric vehicle market is experiencing a decline, with wholesale sales down 1.9% year-on-year in October, and a continuous drop in market share since June [12][13]. Group 3: Research and Development Focus - R&D expenses reached 2.43 billion in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% [6]. - The company is committed to humanoid robot development, with plans to mass-produce self-developed humanoid robots by the end of 2026, targeting annual sales of over 1 million units by 2030 [8][9]. - The company faces challenges in ensuring technological reliability, supply chain maturity, and scenario validation for its robot products [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a narrowing loss in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6] - The company achieved a vehicle delivery volume of 116,000 units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [6] - The company is expanding its collaboration with Volkswagen, which has become a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA model, indicating potential growth in revenue from R&D services [6][7] - The launch of the Kunpeng Super Range Extender is expected to open new growth opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector [6][7] - The second-generation VLA model was released, which enhances the company's capabilities in physical AI, with plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 76.93 billion yuan, 117.47 billion yuan, and 144.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, 52.7%, and 23.3% [5][10] - The net profit is expected to improve from -1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][10] - The gross margin for the automotive business is projected to increase from 18.2% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5][10] Delivery and Revenue Guidance - The company has provided a Q4 delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units, corresponding to a revenue guidance of 21.5 billion to 23 billion yuan [6] - In October, the company delivered 42,013 vehicles, with an expected average monthly delivery of 41,000 to 45,000 units for November and December [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 101.8% year-on-year for Q3 2025, reaching 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive business revenue growing by 105.3% [3][4]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 13.1%, driven by a decrease in costs, although it saw a slight decline from the previous quarter due to product updates [4]. - The company is optimistic about future performance, projecting Q4 2025 automotive sales between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.6% to 44.3% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2025 revenue was 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive revenue at 18.05 billion yuan [3][4]. - The total gross profit for Q3 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was a loss of 150 million yuan, marking a significant reduction in losses of 90.1% year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.43 billion yuan, up 48.7% year-on-year, reflecting increased costs associated with new product launches [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 2.49 billion yuan, a 52.6% increase year-on-year, primarily due to higher sales commissions and marketing costs [5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 78.13 billion yuan in 2025, 110.81 billion yuan in 2026, and 131.64 billion yuan in 2027, with expected net profits turning positive in 2026 [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on intelligent products, including the launch of Robotaxi and the new generation of IRON humanoid robots, which are expected to enhance its market position [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for XPeng Motors, with a current price of HK$96.00 and a target price of HK$96.23 [2][3]. Core Insights - XPeng Motors is experiencing a recovery in earnings, with technology services emerging as a new growth driver. The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of Rmb20.38 billion, slightly below market expectations, but up 102% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter. The net loss narrowed to Rmb380 million, improving 79% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin rose to 20.1%, with service and other margins significantly contributing to gross-margin expansion, particularly from technical R&D services to OEMs like Volkswagen [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for XPeng are Rmb40.87 billion for 2024, Rmb78.46 billion for 2025, and Rmb112.03 billion for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 33%, 92%, and 43% respectively. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2026, with a projected net profit of Rmb1.12 billion and a diluted EPS of Rmb0.59 [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.3% in 2024 to 19.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to launch its Robotaxi fleet next year, leveraging in-house technology development to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. Initial commercialization will focus on system robustness and regulatory compliance, with plans to expand to more cities [4][11]. - XPeng is also advancing its humanoid robot production, targeting mass production of its eighth-generation model and aiming for annual deliveries of 1 million units by 2030. The cost structure is expected to improve significantly, with software accounting for over 50% of total costs [12][13]. Market Expansion - Overseas markets are projected to be a significant growth driver in 2026, with a strategy that includes passenger vehicles, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots. The company plans to launch multiple BEV/EREV models, with at least three planned for export [13].

Core Insights - On November 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 5.863 billion, 3.912 billion, and 3.075 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 3.416 billion, 1.935 billion, and 1.640 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 5.863 billion with a net buying amount of +1.678 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 3.912 billion with a net selling amount of -0.831 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) achieved a trading amount of 3.075 billion with a net buying amount of +0.633 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 2.588 billion with a net selling amount of -0.128 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 2.252 billion and a net buying amount of +29.105 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.416 billion with a net buying amount of +1.618 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.935 billion with a net buying amount of +0.639 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.640 billion with a net buying amount of +0.502 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 1.518 billion with a net buying amount of +0.220 billion [2] - Other significant companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 1.361 billion and a net buying amount of +0.338 billion [2]

Core Insights - Three major automotive companies, Geely, Leapmotor, and Xpeng, reported record-high revenues, gross profits, and delivery volumes for Q3, while addressing market changes due to adjustments in vehicle purchase tax policies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Geely achieved a record revenue of 89.2 billion yuan in Q3, a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year [1] - Leapmotor reported Q3 revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, a 97.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 150 million yuan and a gross margin of 14.5% [2] - Xpeng's Q3 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a 102% year-on-year increase, with a net loss of 380 million yuan, significantly narrowing from a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to face challenges in 2026 due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles, transitioning from exemption to a 50% reduction [3] - Geely's CEO expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt, highlighting that the market is maturing and that companies with strong strategic foundations will have advantages [3][4] - Leapmotor's management believes the tax policy changes will not significantly impact overall vehicle sales, as evidenced by the continued growth in new energy vehicle penetration [4] Strategic Initiatives - Geely plans to launch multiple new and updated models in Q4 to meet its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, having achieved 2.477 million units by the end of October [1][4] - Leapmotor aims for a combined domestic and overseas sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2026, with a focus on expanding into new markets [4] - Xpeng is transitioning towards becoming a technology company, with plans to develop flying cars, humanoid robots, and Robotaxi services, aiming for significant advancements in AI applications [5][6] Future Innovations - Xpeng's CEO outlined plans for the launch of three Robotaxi models and humanoid robots by 2026, with initial deployments in commercial settings [5][6] - Leapmotor has completed strategic planning for its new product lines, with expectations to launch new products by 2027-2028 [6] - Geely is set to unveil a new five-year plan focused on AI and technology on January 1, 2026, emphasizing the importance of strong manufacturing capabilities in the automotive sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from northbound trading, totaling HKD 74.66 billion, with notable buying in Alibaba, Xpeng Motors, and Xiaomi, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Tencent experienced the highest net sell-offs [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 74.66 billion, with HKD 27.45 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 47.21 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included Alibaba (HKD 37.70 billion buy, HKD 20.92 billion sell, net +HKD 16.78 billion), Xpeng Motors (net +HKD 8.29 billion), and Xiaomi (net +HKD 6.33 billion) [2][5]. - The most sold stocks were China National Offshore Oil Corporation (net -HKD 3.65 billion) and Tencent (net -HKD 1.91 billion) [7]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Alibaba (HKD 09988) received a net buy of HKD 32.96 billion, with news of its Qianwen App entering public testing and strategic collaboration with Quark App [5]. - Xpeng Motors (HKD 09868) reported a narrowed Q3 loss of HKD 3.81 billion, with adjusted losses of HKD 1.5 billion, and projected Q4 revenue between HKD 215 billion and HKD 230 billion, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 42.8% [5]. - Xiaomi (HKD 01810) saw a net buy of HKD 8.53 billion ahead of its earnings report, which showed a Q3 revenue of RMB 113.12 billion, up 22.3%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 11.31 billion, up 80.9% [6]. - China Hongqiao (HKD 01378) attracted a net buy of HKD 8.32 billion, with plans to place 400 million shares, raising approximately HKD 114.9 billion [6]. - Semiconductor companies like SMIC (HKD 00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (HKD 01347) received net buys of HKD 5.15 billion and HKD 3.74 billion, respectively, with SMIC projecting annual sales exceeding USD 9 billion [6][7].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 74.66 billion HKD from northbound trading on November 18, with 27.45 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 47.21 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba (09988) received a net inflow of 37.70 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 58.63 billion HKD, reflecting a net increase of 16.78 billion HKD [2] - Tencent (00700) experienced a net outflow of 15.41 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 39.12 billion HKD, resulting in a decrease of 8.31 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi (01810) had a net inflow of 18.54 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 30.75 billion HKD, showing an increase of 6.33 billion HKD [2] - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a net inflow of 14.30 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 20.32 billion HKD, indicating an increase of 8.29 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Company News - Alibaba's net inflow was supported by the launch of its Qianwen App, which is expected to enhance its AI capabilities and user engagement [4] - Xpeng Motors reported a narrowed net loss of 381 million HKD for Q3, with adjusted losses of 150 million HKD, and projected Q4 revenue between 21.5 billion to 23 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [5] - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue reached 113.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit growing by 80.9% [5] - China Hongqiao (01378) received a net inflow of 8.32 billion HKD, as it plans to place 400 million shares to raise approximately 11.49 billion HKD [5] - Semiconductor companies SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) received net inflows of 5.15 billion HKD and 3.74 billion HKD, respectively, with SMIC projecting annual sales exceeding 9 billion USD [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 74.66 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 27.45 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 47.21 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) received a net inflow of 32.96 billion HKD, driven by the launch of its Qianwen App and strategic collaboration with the Quark App [6] - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) had a net inflow of 8.53 billion HKD, with a narrowed third-quarter loss of 381 million HKD and projected revenue growth of 33.5% to 42.8% for Q4 [6] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) attracted a net inflow of 8.53 billion HKD, reporting a third-quarter revenue of 113.12 billion CNY, a 22.3% year-on-year increase [7] - China Hongqiao (01378) saw a net inflow of 8.32 billion HKD, planning to place 400 million shares to raise approximately 11.49 billion HKD [7] - Semiconductor companies SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) received net inflows of 5.15 billion HKD and 3.74 billion HKD, respectively, with SMIC expecting annual sales to exceed 9 billion USD [7] Group 2: Net Outflows - CNOOC (00883) experienced a net outflow of 3.65 billion HKD, influenced by the International Energy Agency's forecast of a global oil surplus exceeding 4 million barrels per day next year [8] - Tencent (00700) faced a net outflow of 1.91 billion HKD, reflecting market sentiment amid broader industry trends [8]