Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth in overseas direct sales, while domestic same-store performance is expected to improve [1][5] - The overall gross margin reached a historical high of 47.0% in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1 percentage points [5] - The company plans to open over 1,000 new stores in 2024, accelerating its expansion in overseas markets [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Performance in 2024 - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 169.94 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 27.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8] Direct Sales Market - The revenue share from direct sales continues to expand, contributing to the improvement in gross margin [5] - The company is focusing on optimizing store selection and expanding store sizes to enhance domestic same-store performance [5] TopToy Growth - TopToy's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 980 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44.7% [5] - The company plans to expand TopToy's overseas business, with future sales expected to exceed 50% from international markets [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 209.8 billion yuan, 254.3 billion yuan, and 303.9 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, and 20% [6] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 31.0 billion yuan, 36.0 billion yuan, and 40.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 16%, and 12% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in overseas direct sales, while domestic same-store performance is expected to improve [5][6] - The overall gross margin reached a new high of 47.0% in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9 percentage points [5] - The company plans to open over 1,000 new stores in 2024, accelerating its overseas market expansion [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 169.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with an operating profit of 33.16 billion, up 17.6% year-on-year [8] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 27.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 209.8 billion, 254.3 billion, and 303.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, and 20% [6] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are 31.0 billion, 36.0 billion, and 40.2 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 16%, and 12% [6] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company plans to increase its store count to 7,504 by the end of 2024, with 631 new stores opened overseas [8] - TopToy's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 9.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, with significant growth in overseas markets [5]

Summary of Miniso (MNSO US) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Miniso (MNSO US) - **Industry**: Specialty Retail - **Market Cap**: USD 13,065 million - **Current Share Price**: USD 20.79 - **Target Price**: USD 27.70 (previously USD 29.30) [5][23] Key Financial Results - **2024 Adjusted Net Profit**: RMB 2,721 million, up 15% year-on-year [2] - **2024 Revenue Growth**: 25% year-on-year [2] - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.5% due to margin dilution from accelerated opening of self-operated stores [2] - **Dividend Declared**: USD 0.3268 per ADR, representing a full-year payout of 50% on adjusted net profit [2] Future Guidance - **2025 Expansion Plans**: Slower pace of expansion expected compared to 2024, but revenue growth anticipated to accelerate due to improving same-store sales growth (SSSG) [3] - **2025 Revenue Growth Forecast**: 25% year-on-year [3] - **2025 Net Profit Growth**: Expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, but revised down by 9% due to negative impacts from Yonghui acquisition and higher finance costs [3][22] - **2026 Profitability Outlook**: Anticipated improvement in profitability post-acquisition restructuring of Yonghui [4] Valuation and Target Price Adjustments - **Target Price Reduction**: DCF-based target price cut by 5.5% to USD 27.70 [5][23] - **2025 Operating Profit (OP) Estimates**: Slightly lowered by 1% due to conservative OPM assumptions [3] - **2025/26 Net Profit Estimates**: Reduced by 9% due to higher finance costs and losses from Yonghui [22] Market Position and Risks - **Overseas Market Contribution**: Expected to contribute over 70% of revenue growth from 2024 to 2027 [21] - **Key Risks**: - Continued negative SSSG in China due to deteriorating offline traffic [27] - Potential for lower-than-expected margins from overseas self-operated stores [27] - Rising competition and potential disruptions from pandemics or other events [27] Financial Ratios and Projections - **2024 Revenue**: RMB 16,994 million, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [24] - **2025 Revenue Estimate**: RMB 21,252 million, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [24] - **2026 Revenue Estimate**: RMB 25,687 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [24] - **2024-2026 CAGR for Net Profit**: Revised to 17.6% from previous 22.5% [22] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy rating despite target price reduction, indicating a potential upside of 33.2% from current share price [5][27] - **Market Sentiment**: The company is positioned to benefit from overseas growth, although domestic challenges remain a concern [4][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has deepened its IP strategy and accelerated globalization, achieving a record high gross margin [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% [5] - The company expects to maintain strong performance in the second half of 2025, driven by its IP strategy and expansion of overseas direct stores [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.95 billion yuan, 25.51 billion yuan, and 30.97 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 21.7%, and 21.4% [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 3.05 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 22.1%, and 22.7% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 50.6% in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company has optimized its store layout and enhanced IP penetration in China, with revenue from the mainland reaching 9.33 billion yuan, a 10.9% increase [5] - The overseas revenue reached 6.68 billion yuan, a 41.9% increase, with a significant increase in the number of direct stores [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales and expanding its product categories to drive growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 47.0% in Q4 2024, driven by its IP strategy and strong performance in the overseas direct sales market [6][7] - Total revenue for 2024 reached 169.9 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% in Q4 [6][10] - The company expects revenue growth in the second half of 2025 to outpace the first half, despite a slight decrease in the number of new store openings compared to 2024 [6][10] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 7.9 billion RMB, a 20.0% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.8% [6][7] - The company’s total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with significant growth in overseas locations [7][10] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 12.3 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, revenue from the Miniso brand was 44.3 billion RMB, up 21.3% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 42.7% [7] - The TOPTOY brand contributed 2.8 billion RMB in revenue, marking a 50.3% increase year-on-year [7] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 208 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [10][11] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 32 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 19% increase [10][11] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in gross margin, supported by the rising contribution from overseas and IP sales [7][10]

瑞财经 吴文婷近日，名创优品旗下TOP TOY召开战略升级发布会，宣布启动全球化，目标是未来5年覆 盖全球100个国家核心商圈，开设超1000家门店。 名创优品旗下TOP TOY拟5年开店1000家，叶国富 称要抓住文化出海机会 在此背景下，名创优品以及TOP TOY的发展方向，均是布局全球的兴趣消费市场。"兴趣消费在中国刚 刚起步，而美国的兴趣消费市场已经非常成熟。美国人均兴趣消费超过2000元，日本人均兴趣消费为 588元，而中国的人均兴趣消费仅为51元。我们与日本相差10倍，与美国相差40倍。这意味着中国的兴 趣消费市场潜力巨大。"叶国富表示。 | | 截至12月31日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023年 | 2024年 | | TOP TOY門店數量 | | | | 直營店 | 14 | 40 | | 名創合夥人門店 | 134 | 236 | | 合計 | 148 | 276 | 2024年财报显示，TOP TOY门店数量由截至2023年12月31日的148家增加至截至2024年12月31日的276 家，其中272家位于中国内地。 名创优品创始人兼CEO叶国富指出，过 ...

Core Insights - MINISO aims to become the world's leading IP design retail group, showcasing strong performance driven by the "IP economy" [3][9] - The company reported a total revenue of 17 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with overseas revenue growing by 42% to 6.68 billion yuan [3][10] - MINISO's gross profit margin reached a historic high of 44.9%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous year [3][5] Financial Performance - Operating profit for 2024 was 3.316 billion yuan, a 17.6% increase from 2.82 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - Net profit for the period was 2.635 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.9% growth compared to 2.274 billion yuan in the prior year [5] - Gross profit for the year was 7.637 billion yuan, a 34% increase year-on-year [5] Market Expansion and Strategy - As of December 31, 2024, MINISO had 7,780 stores globally, with a net increase of 1,219 stores, surpassing 3,000 overseas locations [5][10] - The company is focusing on enhancing store quality and operational efficiency through four key engines: channel structure upgrades, refined product operations, IP matrix expansion, and membership system innovation [6][9] - MINISO's TOP TOY brand recorded annual revenue of 980 million yuan, a 45% increase, and expanded its store count to 276 [8] Cultural IP Development - MINISO has launched significant IP collaborations, including partnerships with "chiikawa" and "Black Myth: Wukong," to promote Chinese culture globally [7][9] - The company is committed to its "100 Chinese IPs going global" initiative, enhancing the international presence of Chinese cultural products [7][10] - MINISO's strategic entry into high-end markets in Southeast Asia and the U.S. has solidified its position in the global retail landscape [10] Brand and Product Innovation - The introduction of MINISO LAND stores represents a strategic upgrade in brand positioning and IP scene representation [9] - The company is leveraging its global supply chain and innovative product offerings to meet the rising demand for personalized and high-quality cultural products [10] - MINISO's approach combines cultural export with commercial success, showcasing the potential of Chinese brands on the international stage [10]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, plans to open over 1,000 stores globally in the next five years, with more than 50% of sales expected to come from overseas markets [3][5] - The company has allocated a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its expansion, with a focus on flagship stores in major global shopping districts [3][4] - TOP TOY aims to position itself as a "super factory" for IP-related products, collaborating with various global and local IPs [4][5] Expansion Plans - The company plans to open 150 new stores in China by 2025, with 100 of those in major cities [3][5] - Currently, TOP TOY operates nearly 280 stores across over 80 cities in China, with plans to expand to 500-700 stores in the country [3][5] - TOP TOY has already opened five stores in Southeast Asia, with some achieving rapid profitability [6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, TOP TOY generated 700 million RMB in revenue, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, contributing approximately 5.7% to Miniso's total revenue [5][6] - The company's revenue for 2023 was 680 million RMB, up from 429 million RMB in 2022 [5][6] - TOP TOY's growth rate is significantly higher than Miniso's overall performance, with a revenue growth rate 2.5 times that of the parent company [5] Market Positioning - TOP TOY's strategy closely mirrors that of Bubble Mart, aiming to capture market share in the潮玩 sector [5][6] - The brand's primary products include blind boxes, building blocks, and plush toys, with a focus on leveraging popular IPs for product development [7][10] - The company has seen a 55%-60% compound annual growth rate over the past four years, with self-owned products experiencing a 150% growth rate this year [7][10] IP Strategy - TOP TOY relies heavily on external IPs for its product offerings, which poses risks related to licensing costs and renewal uncertainties [10][11] - The brand has a limited number of original IPs, with current self-owned IPs accounting for only a small percentage of sales [10][11] - The company is exploring collaborations with designers to enhance its product offerings, but remains focused on leveraging existing major IPs for growth [8][9] Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY faces challenges in differentiating itself from competitors like Bubble Mart, which has a strong portfolio of exclusive designer IPs [10][11] - The brand's reliance on external IPs may hinder its ability to create standout products in a crowded market [11][12] - The company is aware of the difficulties in attracting consumers in unfamiliar markets, particularly in Europe and North America [13] Store Location Strategy - TOP TOY's store location strategy has evolved to include not just first and second-tier cities but also lower-tier cities, reflecting a shift to capture a broader consumer base [15] - The company's same-store sales growth has slowed, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in its expansion approach [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - Domestic same-store sales faced pressure in the second half of the year, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth, while overseas business maintained high growth [3] - The company opened a net total of 1,219 new stores in 2024, implementing a channel upgrade strategy [4] - The gross margin increased for eight consecutive quarters, reaching 44.94%, while the expense ratio rose due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] - The company returned 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, including cash dividends and share buybacks, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Revenue growth was driven by overseas MINISO and TOP TOY, which grew by 41.9% and 44.7% respectively, while domestic MINISO saw a growth of 10.9% [3] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with 4,386 in mainland China and 3,118 overseas [4] - The company added 1,219 new stores in 2024, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [4] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 44.94%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher revenue from high-margin IP products and an increase in overseas business [5] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 21%, reflecting a 5 percentage point rise due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] Shareholder Returns - The company returned a total of 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, which included cash dividends of 1.2443 billion yuan and share buybacks of 330.2 million yuan [6] - The year-end dividend payout amounted to 740 million yuan, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of 2024 [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues of 21.1 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 14% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.94 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 26%, and 21% [7]

名创优品，全线「爆改」 近期热点不断的名创优品，公布了截至2024年12月31日的年度业绩公告。 根据公告，名创优品2024年全年收入达到人民币169.94亿元，同比增长22.8%；全年毛利为人民币76.37亿元，同比增长34.0%；毛利率全年为44.9%，创历 史新高。 尽管业绩增幅不小，但名创优品决定在2025年放缓开店节奏，名创优品CFO张靖京在业绩电话会上表示："2025年门店增加的数量预计会略少于2024年， 主要是因为我们自己的经营节奏。门店不能只看数量，更要看质量和结构，希望更多增长来自于同店销售。" 这其中的问题是存量门店的销售下滑，也是名创优品在2025年着重去解决的问题。 另外，在完成收购永辉超市29.4%股权后，名创优品要在销售、产品品类、毛利等方面对永辉进行改造，伴随的是更多的裁员和关店，这家企业或许在短 期内将迎来"动荡期"。 "拯救"同店 2024年，名创优品的门店总数为7780家，全年净新开1219家门店。其中，名创优品门店数量为7504家，全年净新开1091家门店。 这其中，中国内地的门店数量增加了460家，达到4386家，其中99%为合伙人门店，直营门店仅仅增加了1家。 按照 ...