Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,751.60, down by 103.96 points or 0.39% as of September 30, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,811.89 and a low of 26,663.28 during the trading session, with an average price of 26,737.59 [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 26,915.35, while the 52-week low is 18,856.77, indicating a trading range of 0.55% for the day [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 110.477, up by 0.98% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 662.66, down by 0.05% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a price increase of HKD 3.00, or 0.45%, with an ADR price of HKD 662.660, which is a decrease of HKD 0.340 compared to its Hong Kong price [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) increased by HKD 3.60, or 2.08%, with an ADR price of HKD 173.866, down HKD 3.134 from its Hong Kong price [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) rose by HKD 0.60, or 0.55%, with an ADR price of HKD 110.477, up HKD 1.077 from its Hong Kong price [3] - Other notable movements include Kuaishou (01024) increasing by HKD 5.70, or 7.22%, and BYD Company (01211) rising by HKD 1.60, or 1.47% [3]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early development stage, with no other toy/hobby stores offering a similar consumer experience [1][11] - Five out of six visited stores had higher foot traffic and transaction volumes than nearby stores, second only to Apple stores [10] Store Visits - Morgan Stanley analysts visited six Pop Mart stores in New York and New Jersey, including locations in American Dream Mall and Jersey City [2][4] Key Findings - **New Customer Base and Product Variety**: Many new customers inquired about the "blind box" products, indicating that retail stores effectively promote Pop Mart's diverse IP/product portfolio [6] - **Store Layout and Customer Base**: Most of the 50 U.S. stores are located in residential areas, with fewer in core commercial centers, highlighting the need for continued expansion to build a solid core customer base [6] - **Operational Optimization**: Some stores show good profitability, but there is room for improvement, such as small store sizes (around 100 square meters) and the need for enhanced digital operations [6] Customer Demographics - Compared to other markets, a higher proportion of children (accompanied by adults) are observed in U.S. stores, likely due to stronger purchasing power among American consumers [9] Foot Traffic and Transaction Volume - Most visited stores maintained significant foot traffic even without selling Labubu plush toys, with five out of six stores outperforming nearby competitors [10] Market Competition - Currently, no other toy/hobby stores provide a consumer experience comparable to Pop Mart, characterized by the joy of unboxing, attractive product designs, and a rich IP matrix [11] Popular IPs and Product Display - In addition to Labubu, popular IPs include Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hirono, Twinkle Twinkle, Dimoo, and some licensed Japanese anime/Disney products [12] - Each store offers a different selection of products, allowing for regular product rotation to maintain freshness [16] Valuation and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley rates Pop Mart as a preferred choice in the consumer sector in China/Hong Kong, with a target price of HKD 382 [17][18] - The valuation method anticipates a target P/E ratio of 42 times for 2025, considering the company's global expansion potential [20] - Factors driving potential valuation increases include sustained sales momentum in China and overseas, successful launches of popular products and IPs, and growth in revenue per square meter [21]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, which opened its first store in 2020, is now aiming for an IPO within five years, positioning itself as a platform for various products and IPs, contrasting with Bubble Mart's closed ecosystem approach [2][14]. Market Valuation - As of July 2025, TOP TOY completed a Series A funding round of approximately $60 million, resulting in a post-money valuation of $1.3 billion (approximately HKD 10.2 billion) [2]. - In comparison, Bubble Mart's market capitalization exceeds HKD 350 billion, making it 35 times larger than TOP TOY [2]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was CNY 679 million, CNY 1.461 billion, and CNY 1.909 billion, respectively, with net profits of -CNY 38.38 million, CNY 212 million, and CNY 294 million [2]. - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY reported revenue of CNY 1.36 billion and a profit of CNY 180 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 58.5% and 26.8%, respectively [2][7]. Comparison with Bubble Mart - Bubble Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 13.88 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and a net profit of CNY 4.57 billion, showing a growth of 396.5% [3]. - Bubble Mart's revenue and profit are 10 times and 25 times that of TOP TOY, respectively [3]. Membership and Store Count - As of mid-2025, Bubble Mart had 59.12 million registered members, while TOP TOY had over 10 million [3]. - Bubble Mart operates 571 stores globally, with 443 in China and 128 overseas, in addition to 2,597 vending machines [3]. - TOP TOY has 299 stores, with 15 located overseas, covering markets such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is primarily generated from franchisees and distributors, accounting for 74.3% of its income in the first half of 2025 [4]. - In contrast, Bubble Mart's revenue is mainly from direct sales [4]. Profitability Metrics - For the first half of 2025, Bubble Mart's gross margin exceeded 70%, and net margin surpassed 30%, while TOP TOY's gross margin was 32% and net margin only 13% [6]. - TOP TOY's self-developed IP products generated CNY 6.1 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue [12]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY has 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, while Bubble Mart's proprietary products accounted for 99.1% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][10]. - The scarcity of Bubble Mart's IPs allows for higher pricing power compared to TOP TOY's broader but less impactful IP portfolio [8][10].

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has officially initiated its IPO process by submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to achieve the goal set by founder Ye Guofu to go public within three years [1][2] - The潮玩 market has been rapidly growing, with competitors like Pop Mart creating significant market presence, and TOP TOY's entry is expected to intensify the competition [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY has shown remarkable growth, with revenue jumping from 6.79 billion RMB in 2022 to 19.09 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [3] - The company transitioned from a loss in 2022 to profitability in 2023, with net profit projected to reach 2.94 billion RMB in 2024, and gross margin increasing from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024 [3][4] - The number of stores has expanded from 117 in 2022 to 293 in 2024, supported by Miniso's extensive retail network [3] Market Position and Challenges - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY remains heavily reliant on Miniso, with 45.5% of its revenue coming from the Miniso ecosystem as of mid-2025, raising concerns about its independence post-IPO [4] - The潮玩 industry is increasingly competitive, with self-owned IP becoming a critical differentiator. TOP TOY's reliance on licensed IPs poses risks, as evidenced by its lower revenue from self-owned IP compared to competitors like Pop Mart [5][7][10] International Expansion - TOP TOY has begun to focus on international markets, aiming for overseas sales to exceed 50% within five years and planning to open 1,000 stores globally [9] - Initial success has been noted in Southeast Asia, with profitable openings in Thailand and Malaysia, but overall overseas revenue remains low compared to competitors [9][10] Industry Outlook - The潮玩 market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 825 billion RMB by 2025 and 2,133 billion RMB by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 20.9% [11] - The competition is shifting towards IP ecosystem development and global strategies, emphasizing the need for brands to cultivate their own successful IPs to thrive in the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth opportunities within the toy industry [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020, with Miniso holding approximately 86.9% of TOP TOY's issued share capital, making it the controlling shareholder [4]. - Unlike its competitor Pop Mart, which focuses on blind box products, TOP TOY offers a broader product range, including figurines, 3D models, and plush toys [4]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on a combination of licensed and proprietary IP, with licensed IP currently dominating. The company aims to creatively redevelop licensed IP to unlock new commercial potential [6]. - The company has increased its proprietary IP from 8 to 17 through acquisitions, while maintaining 43 licensed IPs, indicating room for growth in its overall IP portfolio [7]. Market Position and Growth - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operated 293 stores globally, significantly fewer than Pop Mart's 571 stores. TOP TOY's registered membership exceeded 10 million, while Pop Mart added 13.04 million new members in the same period [8]. - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion RMB, respectively, with a notable increase in revenue in the first half of 2023 reaching 1.36 billion RMB [11][12]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin for the first half of 2023 was 32.4%, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 70.3% and Blok's 48.4%, indicating limited pricing power due to a lack of strong proprietary IP [13]. - The company reported a net profit of 180 million RMB in the first half of 2023, following profits of 212 million RMB in 2022 and 294 million RMB in 2024 [12]. Industry Context - The Chinese toy market is projected to grow from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [10]. - Despite the rapid growth of TOP TOY, it faces challenges in IP development and profitability compared to established players like Pop Mart, which has demonstrated stronger growth through its successful IP and fan economy [14].

Group 1 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced the launch of stock options for Pop Mart International Group Limited on October 13, 2025 [1] - The derivatives market in Hong Kong has seen significant activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1.66 million contracts in the first eight months of the year, representing a 13% increase year-on-year [2] - Stock options have become one of the most popular product categories in the derivatives market, with an average daily trading volume of 836,627 contracts, marking a 29% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Insights - The recent popularity of the "Labubu 3.0" and "Twinkle Twinkle" series from Pop Mart indicates a strong demand in the collectible toy market, with significant price fluctuations observed in the secondary market [1][6][10] Group 1: Product Performance - The "Labubu 3.0" series saw a significant drop in secondary market prices, with items originally priced at 99 RMB now being sold for as low as 85 RMB, indicating a decrease in demand or oversupply [1] - The "Twinkle Twinkle" series, particularly the "Starry Person Delicious Moment Series," has experienced a surge in popularity before its official release, with hidden items selling for up to 929 RMB, reflecting a nearly 15-fold premium [6] - The "Starry Person" IP achieved over 1 billion RMB in sales within six months of signing with Pop Mart, making it the fastest-growing new IP in the company's history [7] Group 2: Market Trends - The collectible toy market remains vibrant, as evidenced by the active secondary market for the "Starry Person" series, which indicates strong consumer interest and demand [6][10] - The emotional connection and storytelling behind the "Starry Person" IP contribute to its appeal, as it resonates with consumers seeking identity expression through collectibles [10] - The trend of high premiums in the secondary market suggests a structural shortage of quality IPs, highlighting the potential for continued growth in the collectible toy sector [10] Group 3: Company Strategy - Pop Mart is shifting from a model focused on creating hit products to a more refined approach of nurturing long-term IP ecosystems, as seen with the "Starry Person" series [10] - The company aims to reduce reliance on single IPs and extend the consumer lifecycle of popular products, which is crucial for sustaining revenue growth [10] - The success of the "Starry Person" series demonstrates Pop Mart's effective IP incubation and market deployment strategies, showcasing its ability to maintain a pipeline of popular products [10]

Group 1 - Pop Mart's revenue surpasses Disney for the first time, with the price of blind boxes skyrocketing to 1499 yuan, indicating strong market demand [4][1] - The secondary market price for the hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" pendant has surged to 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase from the official price of 59 yuan [4] - The overall price for a complete box has increased from 354 yuan to 1499 yuan, with over 3000 clicks on the platform indicating consumer interest [4] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking the 3850 USD mark, reaching a record high of 3851.879 USD per ounce [3][4] - This price increase has been ongoing for seven consecutive days, surpassing the previous high of 3834.12 USD per ounce [4] Group 3 - Xiaomi's 17 Pro model has gained popularity due to its unique "back screen" feature, which has sparked discussions on social media [3][4] - The concept of "pain machines" is derived from Japanese "otaku culture," where items are customized with anime and game elements [4] Group 4 - Yu Chengdong has been appointed to lead Huawei's IRB, with the appointment personally signed off by Ren Zhengfei [5] - Jensen Huang has sold 225,000 shares of NVIDIA, cashing out over 40 million USD [6] - Apple had plans to launch an 8GB budget iPad, with a prototype recently exposed [6]

Core Insights - The "Star People Delicious Moment Series" from Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with hidden items like the "Little Bear Biscuit" seeing prices rise from ¥59 to ¥929, reflecting a nearly 15-fold premium, marking it as the highest premium series recently [2][8]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Star People Delicious Moment Series" is set to launch on September 29, with pre-orders already active on second-hand platforms, indicating strong demand before the official release [3][5]. - Initial stock for the series is significantly lower compared to previous releases, leading to rapid sell-outs; over 36,000 consumers added the plush biscuit keychain to their carts within minutes of the launch [3][5]. - The previous "Mini Labubu" series sold over 300,000 units on its launch night, highlighting the competitive nature of Pop Mart's product releases [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" has seen a price increase to ¥929, with a premium of nearly 15 times its original price, indicating strong market demand and consumer willingness to pay for exclusive items [8]. - The "Star People" series is positioned as a commercially valuable IP for Pop Mart, potentially reducing the company's previous reliance on the Labubu series, which accounted for 34.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The "Star People" series has already generated over ¥100 million in revenue since its launch in August 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing new IPs for Pop Mart [11].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart on September 29 was met with high demand, with products selling out immediately on various official platforms [1][6] - Despite initial high prices, the market value of the products, particularly plush items, has seen a significant decline shortly after the release [3][10] Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" includes various products such as blind box figurines, plush keychains, phone cases, pillows, and night light keychains, with the plush cookie keychain being the most popular item [1][12] - On the day of the launch, over 50,000 plush products were sold within a minute across platforms like Douyin and Taobao [3][6] - The initial retail price for the plush cookie keychain was 354 yuan, but market prices ranged from 699 to 1199 yuan before the release [1][6] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Following the launch, the market price for hidden plush items dropped from 929 yuan to below 600 yuan within hours, indicating a rapid decline in resale value [3][10] - The average transaction price for plush items fluctuated around 600 yuan shortly after the release, down from peaks of over 1000 yuan [6][10] - The average transaction price for the figurines also decreased from a peak of 956.2 yuan to around 850 yuan, nearing the original price [10] Consumer Interest and Market Sentiment - The pre-launch hype was significant, with over 50,000 users expressing interest and transaction records appearing on trading platforms even before the official sale [6][12] - Despite the price drop post-launch, the popularity of the "Star People" brand remains strong, with fans expressing concerns about potential over-speculation affecting the brand's appeal [14][16] - The "Star People" IP, one of Pop Mart's fastest-growing new brands, generated revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of the year [16]