近期美股屡创新高，核心动能在于市场对联储局减息的强烈预期；随著就业数据放缓与通胀持续接近目标，投资者普遍押注周三会议将松绑货币政策，并在 政策声明中暗示未来多轮利率下调，这将进一步释放流动性，提振风险资产需求。此外，美中双方于2025年9月14-15日在西班牙马德里举行会谈，就TikTok 问题达成基本框架共识，于周五中美元首将通电话。中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表李成钢强调，中方绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代 价，寻求达成任何协议。中方将依法依规开展技术出口审批，同时充分尊重企业意愿。 港股通周一录得净流入144亿港元，其中阿里巴巴(09988.HK)净流入最多，达52.8亿港元，其次是盈富基金(02800.HK)。另一方面，小米集团(01810.HK)录得 最大净流出，达7.2亿，其次是泡泡玛特(09992.HK)。 美联储降息预期驱动美股创新高，港股通周一净流入144亿 来源：凯基证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation, raising market concerns about the potential decline in product popularity [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% at one point, and closed at 259 HKD, reflecting a decline of 6.43% [1] - Since reaching an all-time high on August 26, Pop Mart's stock price has decreased by 30% [3] Group 2: Product Market Trends - Concerns have emerged regarding the waning popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the Labubu series, with its trading prices on the secondary market experiencing volatility [1] - The average transaction price for the Labubu series has shown a downward trend, with some regular models trading below their original price of 99 CNY [1] - The hidden version "Ben Wo," a limited edition product, has seen its second-hand market price drop to around 700-800 CNY, with some listings going as low as just over 200 CNY [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,457.88, up by 11.32 points or 0.04% as of September 15, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,527.24 and a low of 26,435.55 during the trading session, with an average price of 26,481.40 [1] - The trading volume was 71.35 million shares, indicating active market participation [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.054, reflecting an increase of 1.46% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 644.822, with a slight increase of 0.21% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw a price of HKD 153.679, down by 0.921 compared to its Hong Kong price, despite a 2.32% increase in its latest price [3] - Other notable performances include BYD Company, which rose by 3.44% to HKD 108.100, and Xiaomi Group, which increased by 1.90% to HKD 56.200 [3] Summary of Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings remained stable with no change in its latest price [3] - HSBC Holdings showed a minor increase of 0.19% [3] - Alibaba's stock experienced a decline when compared to its ADR price [3] - The overall performance of major blue-chip stocks was mixed, with some stocks like BYD and Xiaomi showing positive movements while others like China Ping An and AIA Group faced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 2.16% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - The recent product launches, including the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, as evidenced by low queue numbers during the release [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Consumer Demand - The online sales of the new SKULLPANDA blind boxes showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu's fourth generation dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [6]. - On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price fell to 104 RMB, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is correlated with product market demand, suggesting that the current decline in prices may continue if new IPs are not consistently produced [8]. - The sustainability of the collectible toy market's value relies on diversifying offerings and continuously generating new IPs to meet varying consumer preferences [8].

Core Viewpoint - On September 15, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22%, closing at 26,446.56 points, with a net inflow of 14.473 billion HKD through the southbound trading channel [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The total trading amount for the southbound trading on September 15 was 156.251 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 14.473 billion HKD [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading accounted for 95.161 billion HKD, with a net buying of 6.968 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading amounted to 61.089 billion HKD, with a net buying of 7.505 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W was the most actively traded stock on the Shanghai Stock Exchange southbound trading, with a trading amount of 7.960 billion HKD and a net buying of 2.890 billion HKD, closing with a price increase of 2.32% [2] - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange southbound trading, Alibaba-W also led with a trading amount of 5.047 billion HKD and a net buying of 2.395 billion HKD, maintaining the same closing price increase of 2.32% [2] - The stock with the highest net selling was Xiaomi Group-W, with a net selling amount of 724 million HKD, while its closing price increased by 1.90% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Pop Mart to Neutral from Overweight, with a price target (PT) of HK$300, down from HK$400 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The long-term investment thesis for Pop Mart remains intact, supported by its strong brand equity and sales momentum, despite recent challenges such as declining Google search interest and resale prices [1][9]. - The report highlights that the share price has increased significantly, with a 209% year-to-date rise and a 466% increase over the past year, leading to a valuation that is considered priced for perfection [1][9]. - Upcoming catalysts, including the release of new animation and product launches, have low visibility, which may impact future performance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is a leader in China's IP merchandise market, with a diverse portfolio of over 100 owned and licensed IPs, 571 retail stores, and 2,577 roboshops across more than 30 countries [9][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from its proven capability in sourcing and monetizing IP through social media, a diversified IP portfolio, and significant global exposure [9][10]. Financial Estimates - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb13,038 million in FY24 to Rmb49,559 million in FY27, with a year-on-year growth rate of 106.9% in FY24 and 20.1% in FY27 [8][25]. - Adjusted net income is expected to rise from Rmb3,220 million in FY25 to Rmb17,890 million in FY27, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% [8][25]. Valuation - The price target of HK$300 is derived using a PEG ratio of 1.1x, which is a 40% discount to the market-cap weighted average PEG of comparable companies [10]. - The report indicates that the current valuation reflects a 25x P/E for 2026 estimates, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued given its growth prospects [10].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has been on a downward trend, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 2.16% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [3]. Group 3: Product Demand and Sales - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer demand, with sales figures showing a significant drop compared to previous releases [4]. - The online sales of the new blind box experienced fluctuations, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the popop gold jewelry series also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Sentiment - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu series dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [5]. - A significant portion of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, leading some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely tied to product market demand, emphasizing the importance of continuously producing new IPs to sustain market value [7].

Core Insights - On September 15, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Pop Mart (09992), and Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 79.60 billion, 29.45 billion, and 26.94 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) led the trading volume, with amounts of 50.47 billion, 25.76 billion, and 18.75 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 79.60 billion with a net buying amount of +28.90 billion [2] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a trading amount of 29.45 billion with a net selling amount of -3.25 billion [2] - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) had a trading amount of 26.94 billion with a net selling amount of -1.39 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Brainstorm Aurora-B (06681) with a trading amount of 26.34 billion and a net buying amount of +2.66 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 23.45 billion with a net selling amount of -2.21 billion [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) led with a trading amount of 50.47 billion and a net buying amount of +23.95 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 25.76 billion with a net buying amount of +457.14 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 18.75 billion with a net buying amount of +26.27 million [2] - Pop Mart (09992) had a trading amount of 18.72 billion with a net selling amount of -1.27 billion [2] - Other significant companies included Meituan-W (03690) with a trading amount of 15.29 billion and a net buying amount of +3.88 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, leading to a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.16% during the same period [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43%, closing at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has seen a continuous decline, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Product Demand - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of minimal queues for new releases, contrasting sharply with previous sales events [4][5]. - The online sales performance of new products has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in sales numbers, suggesting potential issues with high return rates [5]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products dropping significantly [5]. - A notable percentage of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, prompting some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. Group 4: Industry Insights - An economist highlighted the correlation between toy companies' stock prices and market demand, warning that the current situation reflects an irrational bubble that could lead to prolonged price declines [7]. - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies must continuously innovate and diversify their offerings to meet varying consumer preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, with a market capitalization now below 350 billion HKD, indicating a loss of over 100 billion HKD in value since the peak [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2] - The stock has been on a downward trend since reaching its peak on August 26, despite the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.16% during the same period [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [2] - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of only 10 people queuing for the new release [2][3] Group 3: Sales Performance and Market Trends - The online sales of the new blind box series showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, suggesting high return rates [3] - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [3] - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products falling significantly [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Economic experts suggest that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely linked to product market demand, with current trends indicating a potential irrational bubble in Labubu's pricing [5] - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies need to continuously produce new IPs to meet diverse consumer demands and support stock prices through performance [6]