Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market is rapidly growing, projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 26% to 727 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the emotional consumption needs of Generation Z [1][3][15] -潮玩 differs significantly from traditional toys in terms of target audience, functionality, and value, focusing on artistic design and collectibility, primarily appealing to consumers aged 14 and above [1][19][24] Market Overview - The潮玩 market is characterized by a strong presence of brands like泡泡玛特, which leads the industry with its original IPs such as Labubu and Molly, leveraging social media for viral marketing and community engagement [2][3] - The潮玩 industry is integrating new technologies like XR, AI, and NFC to create interactive products, expanding the functionality and user engagement of潮玩 [2] Industry Structure - The潮玩 industry has established a complete value chain from IP rights holders to manufacturers and retailers, with IP being a core driver of consumer demand [2][3] - Notable IPs such as Disney and Pokémon continue to empower潮玩 products through licensing agreements, while domestic IPs like米哈游 are also emerging [2] Segment Analysis - Various潮玩 segments, including blind boxes, cards, and figurines, are experiencing rapid growth, with the "谷子经济" (secondary market) reaching a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, primarily targeting the post-2000 generation [2][3] International Expansion - Chinese潮玩 brands are expanding into Southeast Asia and North America, with泡泡玛特's overseas revenue growing by 375.2% year-on-year in 2024, indicating increasing global competitiveness [3] Future Outlook - The潮玩 economy reflects a shift in the Chinese toy industry from manufacturing to creativity, with expectations for higher quality growth as technology integration and IP content continue to evolve [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates Pop Mart shares as a Buy, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the pop toy sector [12][4]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in the pop toy industry in China, with a strong capability in IP incubation and operation, which positions it well for growth in the consumer market [12][11]. - The company is expected to see improved investor confidence with upcoming product launches and the popularity of its non-LABUBU IPs in international markets [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach to managing growth sustainability and addressing single IP risks through a diversified IP ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected net profit is RMB 13,551 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 10.160, reflecting a significant growth of 333% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The expected total return on shares is 93.9%, with a target price set at HK$415.00, representing a potential share price return of 91.8% from the current price of HK$216.40 [4][7]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance the LABUBU IP with new product launches and designs, aiming for a strong market presence in 2026 [2]. - Pop Mart is expanding its international footprint, with plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025 and additional stores in Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East [8]. - The company is focusing on localized operations in overseas markets, including collaborations with local artists and IP designs [8]. Supply Chain Management - Pop Mart is optimizing its production strategy by initially producing 70% of projected sales volume and adjusting stock based on market demand, which is expected to improve sales projection accuracy [9]. - The company has expanded its overseas supply chain, with a portion of production now in Vietnam, and plans to establish more local warehouses for international markets [9].

November 16, 2025 11:13 PM GMT Pop Mart | Asia Pacific M Update Fun Bites: Labubu Goes Hollywood Key Takeaways Timely news to ease negative narrative on Labubu: We think market has underestimated Pop Mart's proactive measures in driving IP popularity. Beyond new product launches, its engagement in entertainment - such as theme parks, movies, and celebrity collaboration - are effective measures to sustain its IP lifecycle, in our view. If this movie deal comes to fruition, potential upside for consumer reach ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing rapid growth in China, driven by factors such as rising disposable income, emotional consumption, and the emergence of quality domestic IPs. The market size is projected to grow from 229 billion to 763 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [3][40]. -潮玩 is characterized by its integration of trendy culture, art, design, and various elements, appealing primarily to individuals aged 15 and above, and it serves as a collectible with social and emotional connections [2][19]. - The潮玩 industry value chain is centered around IP, with upstream IP suppliers having strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and popularity of their IPs, while midstream manufacturers face intense competition and lower bargaining power [6][22]. Group 2 - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 26.4% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth compared to Japan's 45% [3][8]. - The report draws parallels with the Japanese toy industry, which saw growth despite economic downturns due to a shift in consumer focus towards anime and gaming, suggesting that similar trends may occur in China as emotional consumption rises [7][26]. - The rise of quality domestic IPs, such as《原神》 and《黑神话:悟空》, is expected to enhance the潮玩 market, although there remains a significant gap in IP value and revenue compared to the US and Japan [3][10]. Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the expansion of the潮玩 market in China, including increased disposable income, a shift towards emotional consumption, and the growth of the泛二次元 (broad two-dimensional) user base, which is projected to reach 503 million by 2024 [40][48]. - The emotional consumption trend is particularly strong among younger demographics, with 78% of emotional consumers being born in the 1990s and 2000s, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking emotional fulfillment through purchases [44][47]. - The rapid increase in offline潮玩 retail stores, such as泡泡玛特 and TOPTOY, enhances consumer experience and supports market growth, with泡泡玛特's store count rising from 329 to 401 between 2022 and 2024 [52][54].

Group 1: Trend of Trendy Toys - The younger generation's "love for play" is reshaping market dynamics, with trendy toys, "Guzi," and AI toys becoming popular among Generation Z due to their emotional value and interactive experiences [1][2] - The trendy toy market has shown strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2015 to 2022, and is expected to exceed 76 billion yuan in 2024 [1][10] - Generation Z, with a disposable income exceeding 3,500 yuan per month, is a significant consumer group, seeking artistic and unique products while enhancing their sense of belonging through second-hand community trading [1][17] Group 2: Guzi Market Growth - "Guzi," referring to merchandise derived from anime and games, is gaining popularity among young consumers, with the market expected to grow by 41% year-on-year to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024 [2][23] - The low price range of Guzi products (10 to 30 yuan) makes them accessible, turning them into "social currency" among teenagers [2][23] - The rapid increase in offline Guzi stores has significantly boosted foot traffic in shopping malls, exemplified by a tenfold increase in a Wuhan mall after introducing Guzi stores [2][31] Group 3: AI Toys Integration - The integration of AI technology into toys is becoming more prevalent, with AI-driven toys expected to account for over 15% of the global toy market by 2025 [6][35] - AI toys, such as Sony's AIBO and Robosen's transforming robots, are gaining popularity, with some products experiencing resale prices exceeding their original prices [6][41] - Chinese companies are actively entering the AI toy market, with products featuring built-in large models for interactive experiences, expanding market boundaries [2][6] Group 4: Cultural Export and Global Appeal - The new wave of toys not only meets the emotional needs of domestic youth but also serves as a significant vehicle for Chinese culture to go global, with brands like Pop Mart achieving explosive growth in overseas markets [3][6] - In 2024, revenue from Pop Mart's Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas businesses is expected to grow by 375% year-on-year, highlighting the global appeal of Chinese trendy toy culture [3][6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The trendy toy, Guzi, and AI toy sectors are benefiting from multiple driving forces, maintaining high growth rates and promising future development prospects [6][8] - Recommended companies for investment include Pop Mart, Blok, and Guangbo Co., with a focus on AI toy companies like Shifeng Culture and TCL Electronics [6][8]

Core Insights - The younger generation is increasingly engaged in purchasing collectibles and trendy toys, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards emotional value rather than practicality [2][20] - The toy and trendy toy market in China is projected to reach approximately 153.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, highlighting it as a significant new consumption trend [2][11] - Tmall has established itself as the leading online platform for trendy toys, capturing 75.8% of the market share during the first phase of the Double 11 sales event in 2025 [5][11] Market Dynamics - The Tmall platform has seen a consistent double-digit growth in the trendy toy sector during the Double 11 period, with over 300,000 new products launched and more than 10,000 merchants experiencing doubled growth [2][10] - The trend of limited edition releases and the cultural significance of collectibles have created a unique consumer experience, where purchasing items at original prices is perceived as a victory [9][10] - The collaboration between Tmall and major IP companies like miHoYo and Bubble Mart has led to significant sales achievements, with some products reaching sales figures exceeding 500 million yuan [13][19] Consumer Behavior - The consumer base for trendy toys is expanding across various age groups, from elementary school students to older generations, indicating a broad appeal [8][28] - The emotional connection and community aspect of collecting trendy toys are driving consumers to engage in late-night purchases and participate in exclusive sales events [9][30] - The rise of "star trendy toys" associated with popular figures has further accelerated sales, showcasing the intersection of fandom and consumerism [28][30] Strategic Positioning - Tmall's long-term strategic investments in the trendy toy sector have established a robust infrastructure that supports brands in logistics, marketing, and consumer engagement [14][18] - The platform's ability to provide comprehensive support for brands, including data insights and marketing strategies, has positioned it as a critical player in the growth of the trendy toy market [23][24] - Tmall's focus on emotional value and community engagement is reshaping the landscape of consumer goods, making it a fertile ground for emerging brands and trends [30][22]

Core Insights - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of approximately 38.60 billion HKD this week, an increase of about 13.90 billion HKD compared to last week, accounting for 41.88% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index [2] - Despite a continued adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, southbound funds maintained a consistent inflow over five trading days, with a focus on increasing positions in technology stocks [2] - Alibaba saw a net buy of 13.32 billion HKD over the past week, marking a significant investment trend [3] Investment Highlights - Alibaba (9988.HK) experienced a net buy of 13.32 billion HKD, despite a weekly decline of 4.71%, with 57.10 million shares added in the last five days [4] - Xiaomi (1810.HK) had a net buy of 5.58 billion HKD, with a weekly decline of 10.10% and 59.82 million shares added [4] - Tencent (0700.HK) saw a net buy of 2.90 billion HKD, with a weekly decline of 4.84% and 1.80 million shares added [4] - Xpeng Motors (9868.HK) recorded a net buy of 2.29 billion HKD, with a significant weekly decline of 20.47% and 1.88 million shares added [4] - On the sell side, Pop Mart (9992.HK) faced a net sell of 460 million HKD, with a weekly decline of 7.90% and a reduction of 2.25 million shares [4] Daily Fund Flow - On the latest trading day, southbound funds had a net buy of approximately 1.05 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of about 498 million HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of approximately 393 million HKD [5] - Major net buys included Alibaba (11.58 billion HKD), Tencent (17.36 billion HKD), and Xiaomi (10.82 billion HKD) [5] - Significant net sells included Hua Hong Semiconductor (3.37 billion HKD) and Ganfeng Lithium (1.91 billion HKD) [5]

Core Insights - On November 21, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Yingfu Fund (02800) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 75.13 billion, 50.10 billion, and 39.92 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 59.52 billion, 26.55 billion, and 24.41 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 75.13 billion with a net buying amount of +8.47 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 50.10 billion with a net buying amount of +9.48 billion [1] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading amount of 39.92 billion but a net selling amount of -37.55 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a trading amount of 36.12 billion with a net buying amount of +9.61 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 31.12 billion with a net buying amount of +1.49 billion [1] - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a trading amount of 12.35 billion with a net selling amount of -55.12 million [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) had a trading amount of 11.02 billion with a net selling amount of -1.91 billion [1] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a trading amount of 10.97 billion with a net selling amount of -6.97 million [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 10.81 billion with a net selling amount of -6.86 million [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) recorded a trading amount of 9.73 billion with a net buying amount of +650.39 million [1] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 59.52 billion with a net buying amount of +3.10 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 26.55 billion with a net buying amount of +3.20 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a trading amount of 24.41 billion with a net buying amount of +7.75 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 24.07 billion with a net selling amount of -3.39 billion [1] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) recorded a trading amount of 14.79 billion with a net buying amount of +723.43 million [1] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading amount of 14.01 billion with a net selling amount of -13.88 billion [1] - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a trading amount of 10.17 billion with a net buying amount of +2.01 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 8.68 billion with a net selling amount of -2.69 billion [1] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) recorded a trading amount of 7.82 billion with a net buying amount of +1.34 billion [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) had a trading amount of 6.63 billion with a net buying amount of +2.36 billion [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant decline, with southbound funds net buying HKD 105 million in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Notable net purchases included Tencent Holdings at HKD 1.736 billion, Xiaomi Group at HKD 1.268 billion, and Alibaba at HKD 1.158 billion [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Alibaba for 7 days, totaling HKD 13.321 billion, and have net bought Xpeng Motors for 4 days, totaling HKD 1.87077 billion [1] Group 2 - Major net sales included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at HKD 5.143 billion and Hua Hong Semiconductor at HKD 337 million [1] - Semiconductor companies like Ganfeng Lithium and SMIC also saw net sales of HKD 190 million and HKD 189 million respectively [1] - The overall market sentiment reflected a downward trend, with several companies experiencing declines in stock prices, including SMIC down by 6.4% and Ganfeng Lithium down by 12.5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Chinese enterprises going global, with a projected increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) to 1.16 trillion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 11.30% year-on-year growth [8]. Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are actively exploring new pathways for international expansion, adapting strategies in response to geopolitical challenges and evolving market conditions [4][8]. - The ASEAN region has emerged as a key destination for Chinese investment, with its share of China's outbound investment rising from 6.34% in 2014 to 17.88% in 2024 [8]. - The structure of China's outbound investment is shifting, with significant increases in the wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors, indicating a deeper integration into global value chains [8][52]. Summary by Sections Part A: Challenges and Pathways for Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The Chinese government is committed to high-quality outbound investment, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a stable international economic environment despite rising geopolitical tensions [18][19]. - The share of China's exports in global trade is projected to reach 14.64% in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest exporter [19][23]. - Chinese enterprises are increasingly focusing on the ASEAN region for investment, with a notable rise in direct investment since the implementation of the RCEP [44][52]. Part B: Financial Support for Outbound Expansion - Chinese financial institutions are enhancing their overseas presence, with major banks establishing branches in numerous countries to support outbound enterprises [9]. - There is a strong emphasis on integrating domestic and international resources, with banks providing cross-border credit and financing solutions for projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [9][11]. - Innovative financial products and services are being developed to support overseas investments, including specialized loans for infrastructure projects and comprehensive solutions for cross-border e-commerce [9][11]. Part C: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Recommendations include optimizing overseas network construction, enhancing multi-tiered financial service systems, and expanding the use of cross-border RMB [12][13]. - A comprehensive risk management system is suggested to help enterprises navigate geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility [12][13]. - Strengthening collaboration between financial institutions and industries is crucial for supporting enterprises in their global expansion efforts [12][13].