来源：读创财经综合 中信证券研报认为，判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切 换正在发生，从小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意 愿，无论是否能成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到 周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国 的政策从扩大规模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球 定价权的重估，化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵 金属板块要开始保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|李翀 崔嵘 韦昕澄 根据新华社纽约1月30日报道，美国总统特朗普30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理 事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。这项提名还需要获得国会参议院批准，对此我们点评如下。 ▍沃什被提名的原因在于满足特朗普"既要又要还要"的诉求。 沃什职业生涯始于摩根士丹利，2006-2011年担任美联储理事，是当时最年轻的美联储理事，危机期间 是华尔街和美联储的重要桥梁，但2011年因反对QE2而辞职。除哈赛特之外，相比其他几位候选人，沃 什家族和特朗普关系更密切，满足忠诚度要求。此外，沃什既有独立性特征，又在本轮竞选中摘掉"鹰 派标签"，边际转鸽支持降息，同时长期批评美联储，支持改革，符合特朗普对美联储主席的各方面诉 求。 ▍沃什重返美联储或代表货币主义的回归，以及美联储改革的推进。 "通胀是一种选择"是沃什的经典名言，这与弗里德曼"通货膨胀永远且必然是货币现象"异曲同工。沃什 的鹰派政策核心在于通过货币供应量控制和取消前瞻指引来压制通胀预期，而非机械性维持高利率压制 通胀，并非利率层面的鹰派。他认 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 张铭楷 陈峰 刘春彤 我们判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从 小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论是否能 成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线 索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规 模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估， 化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始 保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ETF集中赎回潮基本结束 权重股迎来修复窗口 沪深300ETF本周累计净赎回2443亿元，与前一周净赎回总额2374亿元相当，不过本周五净赎回额仅为 73亿元，为1月15日以来单日净赎回额首次回落至300亿元以下。1月截至29日，全市场宽基类ETF净赎 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，1月被动资金大幅流出，测算上周（2026年1月26日至30日， 下同）及1月，11个银行挂钩相关ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，影响银行股资金净流出约485亿 元/1051亿元（测算值），导致年初至今板块下跌6.1%。当前板块分红率4.4%，抬升至高性价比区间， 上周为单周最大资金流出周、但银行指数回升1%，隐含长线机构投资者配置意愿大幅提升。展望2026 年，预计1季度信贷开门红和银行经营格局良好，息差和资产质量预期稳定，营收和利润增速恢复，夯 实核心权益资产价值。 中信证券主要观点如下： 板块资金流出高峰已过，配置价值开始显现 1）1月被动资金集中流出，阶段性压力出清，后续冲击空间有限。该行测算，上周及1月，沪深300、上 证50、中证银行等在内的11个银行相关指数挂钩ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，对应影响银行股 资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值与实际或有所偏离）。其中，1月沪深300与上证50ETF份额分 别回落48%和53%，被动基金减配压力已集中释放，后续冲击空间相对有限。 2）估值与收益优势重新显现，行情企稳增强配置吸引 ...

Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, shows continued improvement in fundamentals, highlighting the investment value of the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 4117.95 points, down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14205.89, down 1.62% [10] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [10] - The CITIC II Securities Index fell by 0.71%, while the CITIC II Insurance Index rose by 5.41% [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [15] - As of January 30, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.81%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, indicating a cautious risk preference in the equity market [12] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a stable long-term interest rate environment and an upward trend in the equity market, which is expected to drive performance growth in Q1 2026 [15] Securities Sector - The securities market is showing positive core indicators, with a projected high growth in Q1 2026, supported by improved trading volume and margin financing [16] - As of January 30, 2026, 17 brokerages reported a total net profit of 1153.44 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.27% [19] - The average daily trading volume of all A and B shares reached 2.90 trillion CNY, a 144.26% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a significant rise in market activity [21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is expected to expand business opportunities, with the first three products anticipated to raise over 13 billion CNY [27] - The REITs initiative aims to activate existing commercial real estate assets and enhance the supply of capital market products, indicating strong market demand [27] - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies like China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [15]

与有色金属、通信等板块受成长型基金驱动不同，非银金融此轮增持主要由价值型基金主导。分析指出，保险行 业兼具稳定分红与长期成长性，在权益市场回暖和定存资金转移的背景下，其配置价值进一步凸显。2025年四季 度，保险指数累计上涨23.42%，显著跑赢银行股和券商股。中国平安、中国太保等龙头因资产负债表优化、新业 务价值回升，成为基金超配的核心标的。机构认为，经过前期估值调整，保险板块的结构性机会大于市场整体波 动，尤其是具备渠道优势和产品创新能力的头部公司，有望持续受益于居民财富配置转型。 券商板块的加仓则呈现"强者恒强"特征。数据显示，公募基金对中信证券的持仓市值比例从0.1687%提升至 0.3132%，华泰证券从0.1579%增至0.1989%，而中小券商的增持幅度相对有限。市场人士指出，全面注册制深 化、衍生品业务扩容等政策预期，叠加权益市场活跃度提升，头部券商凭借资本实力和综合服务能力，更易获得 超额收益。不过，尽管四季度获得加仓，非银金融整体仍处于低配状态，当前仓位较2006年以来平均水平仍有较 大差距，位于30%的历史分位，后续增配空间或受市场风险偏好和行业基本面改善程度影响。 【环球网财经综合报道 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that space photovoltaic technology is not a hype but is on the verge of large-scale deployment, driven by real demand, engineering implementation, and a commercial loop [1] - The explosion of space photovoltaic technology is attributed to the new demands of "space computing power + AI" and the ongoing competition for low Earth orbit resources globally [1] - China's accelerated deployment of satellite constellations is primarily for strategic orbit occupation, followed by building communication capabilities, and finally enhancing computing power and AI [1] Group 2 - It is projected that the number of satellite launches will increase from 5,000 to 50,000 between 2025 and 2040, with gallium arsenide batteries dominating in the short term at an 80% penetration rate [2] - As costs decrease and technology advances, the penetration rates of P-type HJT and perovskite/silicon tandem batteries are expected to rise, with perovskite/silicon tandem batteries projected to reach a 60% penetration rate in the long term [2] - The overall market space for photovoltaic cells in the satellite sector is estimated to reach 328.8 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the short-term market space [2]

Group 1 - The demand for AI computing power and the increase in chip power consumption are driving the transition to liquid cooling as a definitive trend, with major cloud service providers (CSPs) adopting liquid cooling as the default standard for next-generation architectures [1] - The liquid cooling industry is in a rapid growth phase, with North America's top four CSPs expected to increase total capital expenditures by 52% to $383.6 billion by 2025, providing strong downstream demand support for the liquid cooling sector [2] - The global liquid cooling supply chain is currently dominated by Taiwanese manufacturers, who have established significant ecological closed loops in liquid cooling components due to long-term collaborations with chip giants like NVIDIA [3] Group 2 - Domestic companies are accelerating their efforts to catch up by achieving full industry chain layouts in core components and seeking to overcome certification barriers for entry into overseas supply chains [4] - High demand for computing power is driving rapid iterations in liquid cooling technology, with advancements in phase change latent heat utilization and the emergence of new cooling media such as fluorinated liquids, which are expected to replace traditional solutions [5] - The penetration rate of liquid cooling in global AI data centers is projected to rise from 14% in 2024 to 47% by 2026, indicating significant growth potential for the liquid cooling market [2]

1月31日，中信证券发布房地产行业2025年业绩预告点评报告时指出，2026年房地产市场具备止跌回稳 的基础，房价止跌回稳也是房企资产负债表修复的关键。"当前经营性资产复苏的态势最为明显，具备 核心资源和运营能力的开发企业显著占据优势。"报告指出，业绩下滑是过去几年市场调整的客观呈现 结果，但当前房地产市场也呈现了一些积极信号。国家统计局数据显示，截至2025年12月，70个大中城 市新房和二手房价格指数较高点分别下跌12.6%和21.3%。结转项目毛利率下降，针对存货计提跌价准 备是房企业绩下滑的主因。但是，利润表是企业历史情况的反馈，当前市场也出现了一些积极信号。 《求是》杂志发表文章，强调房地产政策应一次性给足，尽可能缩短市场调整的时间，也有效提振了购 房人的信心。报告认为，风雨之后见彩虹，期待居民和企业资产负债表的良性共振。我国居民部门的现 金流量表保持良好，宏观经济健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底气。政 策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业 的主要融资性现金流入，从以信用债(主体负债)为主转向以项目融资(REITs和物业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a significant recovery in operational assets despite short-term performance being affected by historical adjustments [1] Group 1: Industry Performance and Market Signals - The report highlights that among 78 A-share real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 58 reported losses, reflecting the objective reality of market adjustments over the past few years [1] - Positive signals are emerging in the industry, with the National Bureau of Statistics indicating that the adjustment phase has entered a deep water zone, with new and second-hand housing price indices in 70 major cities down by 12.6% and 21.3% from their peaks, respectively [1] - The downward trend in second-hand housing listings in major cities suggests an improving supply-demand relationship [1] - A significant article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for comprehensive real estate policy support, boosting buyer confidence and laying a solid foundation for a quicker market stabilization [1] Group 2: REITs Market and Financial Health - The report notes a significant improvement in the approval efficiency of the REITs market, accelerating the securitization of quality assets, which strengthens real estate companies' balance sheets and reduces debt burdens [2] - The healthy cash flow of the household sector and a robust macroeconomic environment provide solid support for the continuous recovery of operational cash flows for enterprises [2] - The financing structure in the industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving from reliance on corporate credit bonds to project financing (REITs and property operation loans), effectively alleviating the core mismatch between assets and liabilities [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - Based on the analysis, CITIC Securities suggests an investment strategy focused on operational assets and the revaluation of core asset values in China [2] - Companies with core resources and operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, Joy City, New Century Holdings, Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, and Longfor Group, are highlighted as having significant advantages [2] - With the expectation of a positive resonance between household and corporate balance sheets, the real estate industry is poised to emerge from the adjustment phase and enter a new recovery stage [2]