4月22日，保利发展发布《2024-2025年不动产行业白皮书》，明确了行业破局的方向。 作为房企中为数不多，长期坚持专注行业趋势和房企战略"实战型"研究机构，保利发展战略研究院已连续9年，为中国房地产行业持续输出"前瞻洞察"。 回首过往，白皮书每年的行业预判都被市场一一印证："总量峰值时代、10万亿左右箱体运行、结构化牛市、行业五化、品质时代到来"。 这一次，保利再次提出年度新主张——"止跌回稳，仍是2025年房地产的首要任务。" 近1.3万字的白皮书老潘读了三遍，也与战略研究院进行了访谈交流，迷茫中保持坚定，喧嚣中保持理性……保利2025年白皮书看完，挺有嚼头。 01 穿越无人区 破局，要敢于回归行业底层规律。中国头部房企未来怎么走？保利发展从开发商变为运营商、服务商，该如何转型？ 对此，保利白皮书坦言："突围之路没有标准答案，全球范围也缺乏适合类似中国国情的经验坐标系。" 当下，中国本身就是世界上存量和新建建筑规模最大的国家，中国不动产的规模、量级早已超越曾经对标的诸多对象，未来，中国自身蕴含巨大的房地产 机遇和空间，也是其他国家无法比拟的； 另一方面，中国的土地制度，政策环境、资本环境、消费习惯和发达 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing of the underweight position in the real estate sector, with an increase in holdings of leading and quality private enterprises [10] - Public fund holdings in the real estate sector decreased by 1.98% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 54.84 billion yuan, with a relative underweight of 0.49 percentage points compared to standard industry allocation [10] - The report highlights a recovery in the market value of residential property development, with a 7.19% increase in holdings, while non-residential property development saw a significant decline of 52.14% [10] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - Total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 54.84 billion yuan, down 1.98% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The sector's holdings accounted for 0.79% of total stock investment, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous quarter [10] - The underweight position relative to standard industry allocation decreased by 0.06 percentage points [10] Heavyweight Stocks - The threshold for the top 15 heavyweight stocks was 50 million yuan, down 75.05% from the previous quarter [18] - The top five stocks by market value were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Vanke A, and Jindi Group, accounting for 27.95% of the sector's total market value, an increase of 2.85 percentage points [18] - A total of 15 real estate companies saw increased public fund holdings, with the top three being Jindi Group (+12 funds), Binjiang Group (+12 funds), and New Town Holdings (+11 funds) [20] Northbound and Southbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the real estate sector totaled 12.77 billion yuan, down 22.09% quarter-on-quarter [33] - The top five stocks for northbound capital were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and Daming City, accounting for 54.07% of the sector's total market value [33] - Southbound capital holdings increased by 8.59% to 88 billion yuan, with the top five stocks being China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Country Garden Services, Vanke Enterprises, and Sunac China [40] Market Performance - The new housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.13 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [4] - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction volume of 2.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 18.76% [4] - The land market had a total transaction area of 1.314 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement [47] - Recommended stocks include quality non-state-owned enterprises such as Longfor Group, Jindi Group, New Town Holdings, and Binjiang Group [47] - Emphasis on regional enterprises with differentiated city fundamentals and market share growth logic [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is expected to positively impact consumer demand and stabilize land finance. Housing serves as both an investment and a consumer good, with high-quality housing representing a new consumption category that can alleviate pressures from oversupply and income expectations [2][10]. - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, with improved market expectations. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, highlighting structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing supply in opening up new market space amid weak overall supply-demand dynamics, which is crucial for boosting consumer demand and stabilizing land finance [10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.51%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.74%, with a slight outperformance of 0.02% relative to the CSI 300 [7][16]. - The performance of the development sector was primarily negative, while property management and rental sectors saw some gains [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to increase the supply of high-quality housing and optimize existing property acquisition policies. Local policies, such as Xiamen's new housing voucher initiative, aim to enhance flexibility and efficiency in housing choices [8][18]. - The report notes that the focus on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model is crucial for maintaining market stability [10][18]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new home sales showed a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while second-hand home sales increased by 20.1%. Year-to-date, new home sales are up 1.0%, and second-hand sales are up 29.3% [9][19]. - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes is under pressure, while second-hand homes are performing relatively well [9][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of real estate strategies, emphasizing the need for quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives to stabilize the market [4][32]. - Recent policies aim to enhance the real estate market's stability, with a focus on optimizing existing housing stock and promoting high-quality housing [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 206.4 million square meters, reflecting an 8.4% week-on-week increase [5]. - Year-on-year, April's new housing transactions in these cities decreased by 21.2% compared to the same period last year [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 142.4 million square meters, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous week [13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions for April showed a 1.5% year-on-year increase [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 15 key cities launched 121 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.68, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 89.5 million square meters, with an average absorption period of 23.2 months [23]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the central government is reinforcing economic stability measures, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as tax subsidies for home purchases in specific regions [33][35]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides a snapshot of key companies' performances, indicating mixed results with some companies like Lujiazui showing revenue growth of 33% in 2024, while others like Tianjian Group experienced a 21% revenue decline [39]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw Lujiazui's revenue increase by 41% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's performance [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market as it plays a crucial role in supporting economic growth and domestic demand. The focus is on both the quantity and price aspects of real estate, which contribute significantly to investment and consumption [5]. - There is a strong push for urban renewal initiatives, with an emphasis on accelerating the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing. This reflects the strategic importance of urban renewal in the current economic context [5]. - The report highlights the importance of increasing the supply of high-quality housing, indicating a shift towards supporting better housing options amidst previous restrictions on new developments [5]. - The optimization of policies regarding the acquisition of existing housing stock is noted, with expectations for targeted improvements in this area to facilitate local governments' autonomy in housing acquisition [5]. - The report suggests that the combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, increasing quality housing supply, and optimizing acquisition policies will likely lead to a positive impact on the real estate sector and its related industries [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - The report outlines that the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified, especially in light of increasing external shocks. The real estate sector is identified as a pillar of the national economy, crucial for stabilizing growth [5][6]. Urban Renewal - The emphasis on urban renewal has increased, with specific mention of the need for effective and orderly progress in urban village and old housing renovations. This is expected to positively influence the real estate market and related industries [5][6]. Housing Supply - The report indicates a new focus on enhancing the supply of high-quality housing, which is seen as a necessary direction for future development in the real estate market. The current housing stock is estimated at approximately 34.4 billion square meters, with high-quality housing accounting for about 8.2 billion square meters, representing a penetration rate of around 24% [5]. Policy Optimization - The report discusses the optimization of existing housing acquisition policies, which are expected to be refined to address existing bottlenecks in funding, taxation, and pricing. This is anticipated to facilitate smoother operations in the housing market [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including those with strong product capabilities and those in the secondary housing market. Specific companies mentioned include China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments [5].

（原标题：调仓风向标|中泰资管姜诚："被动"调整应对市场，逆势加仓房地产） 中国基金报 魏仲哲 编者按：四月中旬起，公募基金2025年度一季报陆续披露，明星基金经理们的调仓动作和仓位变化也成为基民们关注的焦点。而在每一份定期报 告背后，也隐藏着这些优秀管理人的"投资秘籍"。基金君将继续为大家更新人物库专题【调仓风向标】，解码明星基金产品持仓变化及其管理人 的投资理念。 四月下旬，公募基金进入了2025年度一季报的集中披露期，基金君长期跟踪的中泰资管基金经理姜诚最新操作动向也浮出水面。 一季度，姜诚仍然奉行"好资产便宜了，就再买一点"的调仓逻辑：A股方面，其对三只材料业个股进行了部分减持；同时，对房地产及相关行业 个股做了增持。港股方面，其对两只房地产个股进行了大幅减持，同时对银行业的持仓进行了整体减持。但总体上，两只包含港股的基金中，港 股持仓比例又整体上行。 纵观姜诚所有调仓动作，都与其一以贯之的观点保持高度一致：持仓结构稳定、坚持长期持有，同时面对股价的波动，从来只做被动的处理，不 追逐热点。具体操作上，基金君依然以规模较大的中泰星元、中泰玉衡，持有港股的中泰兴为、中泰元和为大家进行解析。一季度，姜诚对以 ...

【企业】 中交地产：拟将房开业务相关资产及负债转让予控股股东 4月22日，中交地产股份有限公司发布重大资产出售暨关联交易预案公告，中交地产拟将其持有的房地 产开发业务相关资产及负债转让给控股股东中交房地产集团有限公司，交易形式为现金收购，具体交易 价格待评估工作完成后披露。公司房地产开发业务持续处于亏损状态，为实现长期稳定发展的目标，公 司拟将持有的房地产开发业务相关资产及负债转让至控股股东地产集团。通过本次重组，公司拟将持有 的房地产开发业务相关资产及负债转让至控股股东地产集团，未来将聚焦于物业管理、资产管理业务等 轻资产业务，实现向轻资产运营模式的战略转型，提升公司的持续盈利能力和资产质量，有助于实现公 司股东利益最大化，充分保障公司及中小股东的利益。 保利发展：发行可转债申请获得证监会同意注册批复 4月23日，保利发展公告称，公司收到中国证监会出具的批复文件，同意公司向特定对象发行可转换公 司债券的注册申请。批复自同意注册之日起12个月内有效。公司将按要求在规定期限内办理相关事宜， 并及时履行信息披露义务。 【市场】 4月LPR保持不变：1年期3.1%，5年期以上3.6% 4月21日，中国人民银行授权全 ...

在去年四季度以来中国核心城市商品房销售逐渐好转的推动下，2025年以来，核心城市土拍活跃，22城 土地成交溢价率明显上升，4月份依然保持高位。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 4月22日，杭州推出两宗萧山区的涉宅地块，最终绿城中国溢价约59.4%竞得市北单元地块，滨江集团 溢价约74.4%竞得湘湖单元地块，两宗地块共揽金44.73亿元；4月1日，杭州出让的8宗地中有4宗溢价率 超50%。 今年以来，中国核心城市土地市场持续活跃，4月份土地使用权拍卖(以下简称土拍)热度不减。 中指研究院分析称，核心城市土拍升温传递出一个重要信号，即随着限价政策逐步退出，"政府保障基 本住房需求、市场满足多层次多样化住房需求"的趋势正在加快形成。未来企业通过开发高品质改善型 产品，有助于进一步撬动住房消费潜能释放。同时，也需看到，当前市场仍处于调整阶段，房企普遍采 取"聚焦高能级城市"的投资策略，一定程度上导致核心城市土拍竞争加剧，但除部分核心城市外，更多 城市的土地市场短期仍面临压力。 4月24日，厦门市出让4宗涉宅用地，其中一宗经过75轮竞价后，由中饶(厦门)置业有限公司(保利发展子 公司)以总价34.14亿元(人民币，下同)竞得。据 ...

| 2025年4月25日星期五 | NO.1 郑州拟上调住房公积金贷款年龄上限 4月23日，郑州住房公积金管理中心发布《郑州住房公积金管理中心关于调整住房公积金个人住房贷款 借款人年龄上限的通知（征求意见稿）》，调整住房公积金个人住房贷款借款人年龄上限，贷款到期时 间男性可延长到68岁、女性可延长到63岁，或延长到借款人法定退休年龄后5年，贷款期限最长不超过 30年。 点评：政策创新精准指向中高龄群体置业需求释放。此举通过延长还款周期降低月供压力，尤其有利于 改善型购房者盘活资产置换，或为本地改善型项目带来增量客群。结合近期多地优化公积金异地贷款、 提高额度等政策，形成"因城施策"工具箱的叠加效应。 NO.2 22城土拍平均溢价率连续4个月维持20%左右 4月24日，中指研究院发布报告显示，一季度北京、杭州、成都等城市地价屡创新高。4月土拍热度不 减，北京、杭州、成都、苏州、重庆、南京相继拍出高溢价地块。数据显示，今年1至4月，22个重点城 市月度平均溢价率均在20%左右。同时，在核心城市土拍带动下，土地出让金同比增长显著，今年截至 4月22日，300城住宅用地出让金同比增长20.1%。 点评：本次土拍延续分 ...