Group 1 - Vanke's proposal to extend the maturity of a 2 billion yuan bond was not approved, raising concerns about the difficulty of debt management for real estate companies [1] - The bond has a principal repayment date of December 15, 2025, with an interest rate of 3%, and if no consensus is reached during the grace period, Vanke may face substantial default [1] Group 2 - Poly Developments plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan in convertible bonds to fund nine real estate projects, with a total investment of 22.221 billion yuan [2] - This financing move reflects the company's strategy to ensure project advancement through market-based financing tools, providing a reference for compliant real estate companies [2] Group 3 - Shandong Province has issued guidelines for a "trade-in" housing policy, introducing three models: "sell old for new," "collect old for new," and "demolish old for new," aimed at stimulating housing demand [3] - The policy includes measures to support real estate agencies in providing "help sell" services and encourages market-based acquisition of second-hand homes [3] Group 4 - Country Garden's previously acquired land in Foshan is being re-listed for auction at a starting price of 401 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous acquisition price of 2.74 billion yuan [4] - The area has seen a lack of new large-scale developments, and the reduced starting price may attract new bidders, although additional development costs may impact the final outcome [4] Group 5 - Nanshan Holdings plans to apply for a borrowing limit of 7 billion yuan from its controlling shareholder, which will be available for three years and can be reused [5] - This borrowing strategy aims to stabilize the company's cash flow and reduce overall financing costs, enhancing financial stability and risk resilience [5]

Group 1 - Enjie Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares and will resume trading on December 15 [1] - The acquisition will be conducted through the issuance of shares to 63 transaction parties, with the financial data and valuation of the target company yet to be finalized [1] - Zhongke Hualian specializes in the research, production, and sales of lithium-ion battery separator production equipment and related polymer materials [1] Group 2 - Anbotong and other companies are preparing for H-share listings in Hong Kong, with Anbotong's board authorizing management to initiate the process [3] - Penghui Energy and Shiyao Holdings are also planning to issue H-shares and list in Hong Kong, with no changes expected in their controlling shareholders [3] Group 3 - Chip Origin Technology has terminated its major asset restructuring plan to acquire a 97.0070% stake in Chip Lai Zhirong Semiconductor Technology due to discrepancies in core demands and market conditions [5] - ST Busen has also terminated its major asset restructuring plan to sell a 35% stake in Shaanxi Busen Apparel Intelligent Manufacturing due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [6] Group 4 - Tian顺 Wind Power plans to raise up to 19.5 billion yuan through a private placement to fund various projects [7] - LeiSai Intelligent is looking to raise up to 11.44 billion yuan for smart equipment and information technology projects [7] - Zhonghuan Environmental plans to issue shares to its actual controller, raising up to 300 million yuan for working capital and loan repayment [7] Group 5 - China High-Tech received notice of a potential change in control due to a major shareholder's plan to transfer shares, leading to a trading suspension starting December 15 [8] - Moore Thread plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle funds for cash management over the next 12 months [8] - Changan Automobile's subsidiary, Deep Blue Automotive, aims to raise approximately 6.122 billion yuan through capital increase [8] Group 6 - The company Jiangsu Longsheng plans to invest in a new intelligent robot innovation center in Wuxi, with a total investment of about 350 million yuan [14] - The project aims to enhance the company's competitive advantage in the robotics sector [14]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the necessity of lowering mortgage rates to enhance home buying attractiveness, with a focus on potential market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027 [4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming annual report season in March and April 2026, where companies with strong inventory structure and product capabilities are expected to benefit [4] - The report expresses optimism regarding Hong Kong real estate investment opportunities in 2026, following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [4] Summary by Sections Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 18,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.2%, while second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities also increased by 4.6% [11] - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory in 16 cities was 91.77 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 22.5 months [14] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a decline of 2.62% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [26] - The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 59.07 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13.91 times, indicating a valuation at the 94.33 percentile over the past five years [26] Key Company Insights - China Overseas Development is highlighted as a leading central enterprise with a low valuation of 0.34 times PB and a dividend yield of 4.3% [6] - China Resources Land is noted for its stable dividend policy, maintaining around 10 billion RMB in dividends from 2021 to 2024, with a current dividend yield of 5.1% [6] - Other companies such as Country Garden, Greentown China, and China Merchants Shekou are also recommended based on their strong operational capabilities and market positioning [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The Shanghai land market is showing signs of recovery with improved land quality and increased willingness among developers to acquire land [8] - The land supply in Shanghai for 2025 is reported at 1.6524 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, while the planned construction area is 3.2134 million square meters, a decrease of 3.71% [12][19] - The average premium rate for land transactions in Shanghai reached 15.75% in 2025, an increase of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, with total land transfer fees amounting to 140.022 billion yuan, up 1.46% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai Land Supply and Transaction Situation - The total area of land released for construction in Shanghai in 2025 is 1.6524 million square meters, with a planned construction area of 3.2134 million square meters [12] - The transaction area of construction land in 2025 is 1.6402 million square meters, a decrease of 5.63% year-on-year, while the planned construction area transacted is 3.1610 million square meters, down 14.46% year-on-year [19] - The average transaction floor price is 44,297.15 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.63% year-on-year, and the average land price is 85,358.89 yuan per square meter, up 7.50% year-on-year [21] 2. Shanghai Land Auction Analysis - The top 10 high-premium land parcels are primarily located in the Pudong New Area and Hongkou District, indicating higher auction activity in these central urban areas compared to suburban regions [38] - The auction market in 2025 saw no failed bids, reflecting a robust demand for land [47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with stable performance and high safety margins, such as China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Group [47] - Beneficiary stocks recommended include Yuexiu Property, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [47] - For the property sector, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 向特定对象发行可转换公司债券 第四次临时受托管理事务报告 （2025 年度） 证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 债券代码：110817 债券简称：保利定转 债券受托管理人 二〇二五年十二月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》《关于保利发展控股集团股份 有限公司向特定对象发行可转换公司债券之债券受托管理协议》（以下简称"《受 托管理协议》"）《保利发展控股集团股份有限公司向特定对象发行可转换公司 债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）等相关规定，由本次债券受 托管理人中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"）编制。中金公司 对本报告中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证，也不就该等 引述内容和信息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关 事宜做出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为中金公司所作的承诺 或声明。在任何情况下，投资者依据本报告所进行的任何作为或不作为，中金公 司不承担任何责任。 1 中金公司作为保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with core cities likely to see a recovery sooner. Two major opportunities are identified: the rise of "good housing" policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [1][26]. - The report highlights a significant decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 12.3% week-on-week and 32% year-on-year in December [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures from the Central Economic Work Conference aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including city-specific strategies for inventory reduction and supply optimization [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 242.3 million square meters, down 12.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 12.9% decline [2][5]. - Year-on-year, December sales in 34 cities decreased by 32%, with first and second-tier cities also down by 32% [5][6]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a current available area of 90.05 million square meters [19][20]. Policy and News Tracking - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 focused on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [26][27]. - Qingdao introduced the first national "Good Housing" construction standard system, aiming to add at least 12,000 quality housing units by 2026 [29][30]. - New policies in Changsha regarding housing provident funds aim to ease home purchasing for families with two or more children and streamline processes for workers from other regions [29][30]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for November, with Poly Developments down 24.9% to 18.02 billion yuan and China Jinmao down 0.02% to 8 billion yuan [33][34]. - New City Holdings issued bonds worth 1.75 billion yuan with a 4% interest rate, while Yuexiu Property secured a 2 billion yuan loan [33][34]. - The report notes that the average price-to-earnings ratio for mainstream A/H listed real estate companies is projected at 21.2 for 2025 and 18.5 for 2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks effectively, with policies tailored to local conditions [30][31]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in quality commercial real estate during a monetary easing cycle [3][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.423 million square meters, a decrease of 12.3% week-on-week [4][7]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities are down 32%, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 32% decline [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.114 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 36.4% for December [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, 15 cities launched 980,000 square meters of new housing, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.84 [22][23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 90.05 million square meters, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The central economic work conference outlined strategies for stabilizing the real estate market, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [30][31]. - New policies in various cities, such as Qingdao's "good housing" standards and Beijing's expedited property registration processes, aim to enhance housing supply and streamline administrative procedures [30][33]. Company Dynamics - Sales data for November showed significant declines for many real estate companies, with Poly Developments reporting a 24.9% decrease in sales [36][38]. - Financing activities included new bond issuances and loans, with companies like Yuexiu Property securing a 2 billion RMB loan and New City Holdings issuing bonds worth 1.75 billion RMB [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent hiring of Cai Liang, a former senior executive from Vanke, by Poly Developments is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's competitive edge in the Shanghai real estate market, particularly in the high-end segment [1][3]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Cai Liang has officially joined Poly Developments in Shanghai, focusing on product development, marking a significant shift from the company's traditional practice of internal promotions [1]. - This move is perceived as a response to the intensifying competition in the Shanghai luxury real estate market, with Poly aiming to break through its competitive bottlenecks [3]. Group 2: Market Competition - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing fierce competition, with major players like China Resources, Poly Developments, and China Overseas pushing aggressively into the market [1][3]. - Poly Developments is currently positioned as the second-largest player in terms of sales in Shanghai, with a sales figure of 395.8 billion yuan, closely trailing behind China Resources at 417.9 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Sales Performance - The sales performance of Poly Developments' projects, such as the Expo Tianyue, shows a current sales rate of 77.9%, with 648 out of 832 units sold [4]. - The company plans to release over 2.6 billion yuan worth of properties by the end of the year, aiming to secure its position as the second-largest seller in Shanghai [9][10]. Group 4: Product Strategy - Poly Developments is focusing on high-end products, with the Expo Tianyue being one of the most expensive projects in Shanghai, priced at 26.6 million yuan per square meter [9]. - The company is also introducing new housing types, such as the "good house" policy-compliant units, which are designed to maximize usable space and appeal to high-end buyers [9].