Summary of Key Points from the 2026 Greater China Conference on the Auto Sector Industry Overview - The auto sector is experiencing a cooling in domestic demand while companies are setting ambitious growth targets, leading to a cautious outlook for the near term [1][2] - Key growth drivers identified include overseas expansion and intelligence transformation [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments Growth Projections - A bottom-up analysis indicates a projected 19% growth for the auto sector in 2026, contrasting with nearly zero growth in the market based on top-down forecasts [2] - Companies like LeapMotor are targeting significant growth, aiming to increase sales from 600,000 to 1 million units, primarily through new model launches [2] Overseas Expansion - Recent developments, such as tariff agreements between China and the EU, are expected to facilitate overseas growth for Chinese automakers [3] - Companies like Sinotruk and CFMoto are focusing on expanding their export markets, particularly in Europe and North America [3][36][65] Intelligence Transformation - Companies like Pony AI and WeRide are expanding their robotaxi fleets, with Pony targeting 3,000 units by 2026 [22][26] - The adoption of advanced technologies, such as LiDAR and AI, is expected to drive growth in the intelligence segment of the auto industry [3] Company-Specific Highlights Guangzhou Automobile (GAC) - GAC aims for robust volume growth through new model launches and exports, targeting 200,000-300,000 units overseas in 2026 [7][8] - The company plans to reduce costs by an additional 15% in 2026, building on a 10% reduction achieved in 2025 [9] Great Wall Motor - Management has set a sales target of approximately 1.8 million units for 2026, with a focus on new models and exports [10] - The company anticipates a challenging market environment, with a 10% month-over-month decline in orders noted early in 2026 [11] Nio - Nio expects to achieve non-GAAP breakeven in FY26, supported by a strong cash position of RMB 37 billion [13] - The company plans to launch three new models in 2026 to drive growth [14] Xpeng - Xpeng is focusing on cost optimization and technology leadership, with plans to launch new models in 2026 [16][17] - The company expects international sales to grow significantly, targeting over 20% of total revenue from overseas markets [18] Leapmotor - Leapmotor anticipates weak demand in the mass market but plans to launch new models to enhance competitiveness [19][20] - The company aims for overseas sales of 100,000-150,000 units in 2026, with a significant contribution expected from Europe [21] Pony AI - Pony AI is expanding its robotaxi fleet and expects to achieve breakeven in unit economics in Guangzhou [22][24] WeRide - WeRide plans to expand its robotaxi fleet to 2,000-3,000 units, with a focus on markets in the Middle East and Europe [26][27] Sinotruk - Sinotruk forecasts over 10% volume growth in 2026, primarily driven by truck exports [36] - The company is exploring new export markets, including Brazil and Europe, with plans for an assembly plant in Brazil [37] Loncin Motor - Loncin aims to increase its market share in Europe and is targeting growth in motorcycle exports [39][40] Yadea Group - Yadea expects a decline in the electric two-wheeler market but maintains a growth target of 10% for its sales volume in 2026 [43] Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the auto sector is cautious due to rising commodity prices, purchase taxes, and a retreating stimulus environment [4] - Companies focusing on intelligence and export themes are preferred for investment, including BYD, GWM, and Hesai [4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the auto sector as companies navigate a changing market landscape.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

据21财经，上汽大众首款增程车型ID.ERA 9X由承担中高端车型生产的上汽大众宁波工厂生产，目前正 在预批量生产阶段，进展超出预期，近日上汽大众总经理陶海龙曾亲自到厂检验产品，该车型将于今年 3月上市，也在进行出口布局。与此同时，上汽大众旗下首款大型豪华商务MPV威然（Viloran）于近日 决定停止后续研发。 蔚来乐道：本月内将完成超8000块电池增投目标 1月25日，蔚来旗下乐道汽车宣布，其"全国换电站电池翻倍计划"进度已达91.36%。截至1月24日，乐道 已增投超7309块新电池，整体进度达成91.36%。1月内将完成超8000块新电池包的增投目标，实现电池 翻倍。 北京新能源汽车保有量超130万辆 1月25日，据北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议消息，北京新能源汽车保有量超130万辆，新能源 及"国五标准"以上汽车占比超八成。数据显示，2025年，北京组织实施国四及以下排放标准老旧货车和 大中型客车报废更新政策，带动超1万辆老旧客货车淘汰转出；500辆新能源公交车已上牌；新增更新巡 游出租车、轻型邮政车、环卫车辆全部为新能源车。北京全市已建成电动汽车超级充电站1044座，新建 充电接口11263 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].

Group 1 - The event "Auto-First Annual Gala and 2025-2026 China Automotive Innovation Ceremony" highlights the automotive industry's critical years ahead, emphasizing the importance of scale advantages for leading companies and the irreversible trend of smart technology in vehicles [1] - SAIC Motor Corporation was awarded "Annual Automotive Enterprise," while the "Annual Car" award went to the AITO M9, showcasing the recognition of significant players in the industry [1] - The awards reflect the upward vitality and international strength of Chinese brands, with Geely Galaxy recognized as "Annual Brand" and BYD and Chery as "Annual Export Brands" [1] Group 2 - The awards also illustrate a diverse market ecosystem, with models like XPeng G7 and SAIC Volkswagen Lavida Pro winning in various segments, indicating the success of traditional brands in the electric and smart vehicle transformation [2] - Data shows that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 54%, with multiple technology routes such as hybrid, range-extended, and pure electric advancing simultaneously [2] - The competition in the automotive market is expected to focus on technology, cost, and channel strength, testing companies' strategic determination and adaptability as the industry shifts from scale to strength [2]

"为直面挑战，达成预期的财务目标，提高盈利能力，必须聚焦产品组合，评估每个项目在销量与盈利能力上的制胜潜力。"去年年中，陶海龙曾 在一份内部信中指出。 2026年是上汽大众的产品大年，有将近7款新能源产品下线，包括2款基于CMP平台的纯电动车型、3款插电式混动车型，并将首度推出2款增程式 车型，其中最受关注的增程新车是——ID.ERA 9X。 《21汽车·一见Auto》独家获悉，ID.ERA 9X由承担中高端车型生产的上汽大众宁波工厂生产，目前正在预批量生产阶段，进展超出预期，近日上 汽大众总经理陶海龙曾亲自到厂检验产品，该车型将于今年3月上市，也在进行出口布局。 与此同时，我们独家获悉，上汽大众旗下首款大型豪华商务MPV威然（Viloran）于近日决定停止后续研发。威然是上汽大众进入豪华MPV细分市 场的代表作。不过，和兄弟品牌上汽通用的王牌之作的GL8相比，威然在MPV市场几乎泯然众人矣。 在汽车行业进入"决赛圈"的关键时刻，把钱花在刀刃上尤为重要。集中火力造爆款 近日，上汽大众首款增程车型ID.ERA 9X出现在工信部申报名单中，该车型定位大型SUV，六座设计，动力方面采用1.5T增程器，最大功率为 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [5][17]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown positive momentum, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 3% in the past week and 9% over the past month. The new energy vehicle index increased by 2% weekly and remained flat monthly, while the automotive parts index rose by 4% weekly and 15% monthly [2][8]. - The domestic humanoid robot market is experiencing significant growth, with major manufacturers achieving substantial production milestones. For instance, Yushu's humanoid robot shipments exceeded 5,500 units in 2025, indicating a shift towards mass production [15]. - The Robotaxi industry is advancing rapidly, with plans for extensive deployment by companies like Cao Cao Mobility, which aims to introduce 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis by 2030 [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Automotive Index increased by 3% in the week of January 16-23, 2026, and by 9% over the past month. The new energy vehicle index rose by 2% weekly but was flat monthly, while the automotive parts index saw a 4% weekly increase and a 15% monthly increase [8][9]. 2. Domestic Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market in China is entering a rapid growth phase, with leading manufacturers achieving significant production volumes. Yushu and Zhiyuan have both reported substantial shipment numbers, indicating a breakthrough in mass production capabilities [15]. 3. Robotaxi Industry Acceleration - Cao Cao Mobility is set to deploy 100,000 Robotaxis by 2030, with ongoing trials for their second-generation models. This initiative is expected to enhance the application of AI in transportation and contribute to the subscription-based vehicle market [16]. 4. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the growing demand for humanoid robots and recommends key players such as Dechang Motor Holdings and Haoneng Co. The report also highlights the competitive landscape in the passenger vehicle market, suggesting differentiation strategies for companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [5][17]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown positive momentum, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 3% in the past week and 9% over the past month. The new energy vehicle index increased by 2% weekly and remained flat monthly, while the automotive parts index rose by 4% weekly and 15% monthly [2][8][9]. - The domestic humanoid robot market is experiencing significant growth, with major manufacturers achieving substantial production and sales milestones. The Robotaxi industry is also advancing rapidly, with plans for large-scale deployment by companies like Cao Cao Mobility [15][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-value technology routes and companies with inherent advantages, particularly in the humanoid robot and automotive sectors [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Automotive Index increased by 3% in the week of January 16-23, 2026, and by 9% over the month. The new energy vehicle index rose by 2% weekly and remained flat monthly, while the automotive parts index increased by 4% weekly and 15% monthly [8][9]. - Notable stocks with significant gains over the past month include Chaojie Co., Hengbo Co., and Wanxiang Qianchao, while stocks with notable declines include Haima Automobile and Aolian Electronics [10][11][13]. 2. Domestic Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market in China is rapidly expanding, with Utree achieving over 5,500 units shipped in 2025. Other companies like Zhiyuan also reported significant production numbers, indicating a shift towards mass production [15]. 3. Robotaxi Industry Acceleration - Cao Cao Mobility plans to deploy 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis by 2030, with ongoing trials for their second-generation models. This sector is seen as a critical application for AI technology [16]. 4. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the growing demand for humanoid robots and recommends leading firms in electric motors and reducers. It also highlights the competitive landscape for passenger vehicles and suggests companies like Great Wall Motors and BYD for long-term investment [17].

Group 1 - The 12th Jin Xuan Award ceremony was held in Beijing, recognizing 20 gold award marketing cases, 6 annual awards, and 43 excellent marketing cases across various categories including creative works, public welfare and sustainable development, AIGC marketing, and brand IP marketing [2] - Notable winners include Volkswagen China and Toyota China for public welfare and sustainable development, Wuling for creative works, and Mercedes-Benz and SAIC Audi for cross-border marketing [2] - The award introduced a dual-track collection mechanism this year, combining committee nominations and enterprise applications, resulting in over 500 initial cases and 84 benchmark cases shortlisted after multiple rounds of screening [2] Group 2 - The Jin Xuan Award highlights the shift in marketing strategies in the automotive industry due to information overload and weakened traditional marketing effectiveness, emphasizing the need for "meaning reconstruction and value redefinition" [3] - The award ceremony featured the launch of the Xuanyuan Matrix, which consists of three main components: industry services, industry evaluation, and industry communication, aimed at creating a comprehensive support system for the automotive marketing sector [3] - The marketing focus is shifting towards three-dimensional values of "temperature, scale, and attitude," with an emphasis on AI technology and user experience throughout the entire vehicle usage process [3]