Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) experienced a decline of over 6%, closing at HKD 34.18 with a trading volume of HKD 1.313 billion, influenced by renewed U.S. tariff threats on Chinese goods [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On October 10, former President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on key software, leading to significant drops in copper prices [1] - Both domestic and international copper prices fell sharply, with Shanghai copper and LME copper both declining by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Hualian Futures suggests that despite short-term negative impacts, the strong demand for copper as an essential raw material for the new economy will drive long-term price increases, presenting a buying opportunity during price corrections [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that while they remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, short-term price increases are limited to USD 11,000 per ton due to an oversupply in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.86% over the past two trading days [1] - In September 2025, new A-share accounts reached 2.94 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 61%, with a total of 20.15 million new accounts opened in the first three quarters of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [1] Weekly Stock Performance - Over 2,900 stocks rose this week, with 18 stocks increasing by more than 20%. The largest gain was seen in Guanzhong Ecological, which rose by 36.14% [2] - The sectors with the most stocks gaining over 20% included non-ferrous metals, construction decoration, and machinery equipment, each contributing three stocks to the list [2] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with 66 stocks appearing on the weekly leaderboard, net buying 38 stocks and net selling 28 stocks. Ten stocks saw net purchases exceeding 110 million yuan [3] - The stock with the highest net purchase was Ganfeng Lithium, amounting to 578 million yuan, with a weekly increase of 5.01% and a turnover rate of 23.63% [3][4] Notable Announcements - China Power Construction signed a significant contract worth approximately 11.719 billion yuan [6] - Jingu Co., Ltd. entered into a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ninebot Technology to collaborate on new material research and application in service robots [7] Earnings Forecasts - Several companies reported strong earnings forecasts for the third quarter, including: - Yuyuan New Materials, with a projected net profit increase of 101% to 127% year-on-year - Huace Navigation, expecting a net profit increase of 23.17% to 27.02% year-on-year - Allwinner Technology, anticipating a net profit increase of 213% to 307% year-on-year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) seeing a price drop of 3.33% while achieving a record trading volume of 1.72 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest despite the downturn [1] Fund Flows and Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 116 million units, with a total inflow of 117 million yuan on the previous day and a cumulative inflow of 210 million yuan over the past 20 days [1][3] - As of October 9, the latest scale of the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 493 million yuan, marking a new historical high [1] Sector Analysis - The "Copper Doctor" remains strong, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7% and Yunnan Copper increasing by more than 1%. Silver stocks also performed well, with a limit-up increase [1] - Conversely, companies like Hanrui Cobalt and Western Gold fell over 9%, dragging down the index performance [1] Market Drivers - Gold prices have fluctuated due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, with Bank of America indicating a potential bull market for gold lasting until 2026, following a nearly 50% increase this year [3] - Copper prices surged due to supply constraints from the Grasberg copper mine incident, igniting investor enthusiasm [3] - The recent export control regulations on rare earths by the Ministry of Commerce are expected to maintain strong pricing in the rare earth sector [3][4] Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with precious metals benefiting from Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to gold prices surpassing the 4000 USD mark [4] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and a weak dollar environment [4] - The rare earth sector is expected to see continued valuation and performance growth due to tightening export controls [4] Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), making it suitable for risk diversification in investment portfolios [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% on October 10, with 18 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by construction materials and coal, which increased by 1.92% and 1.37% respectively [1] - The electronic and electrical equipment sectors experienced the largest declines, down by 4.71% and 4.46% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector dropped by 2.93% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 125.784 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The construction materials sector had the highest net inflow of 418 million yuan, followed by the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector with a net inflow of 379 million yuan [1] - The electronic sector faced the largest net outflow of 38.319 billion yuan, followed by the electrical equipment sector with a net outflow of 25.535 billion yuan [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a net outflow of 15.387 billion yuan, with 137 stocks in the sector, of which 30 rose and 104 fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Antai Technology (22.3 million yuan), Silver Industry (19.5 million yuan), and Pengxin Resources (19.1 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflow included Northern Rare Earth (2.519 billion yuan), Huayou Cobalt (1.011 billion yuan), and Luoyang Molybdenum (920 million yuan) [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Inflow - The top stocks in terms of capital inflow included: - Antai Technology: +9.99%, turnover rate 10.79%, net inflow 223.06 million yuan - Silver Industry: +9.96%, turnover rate 3.52%, net inflow 194.94 million yuan - Pengxin Resources: +10.06%, turnover rate 10.60%, net inflow 190.96 million yuan [2][4] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Outflow - The stocks with the largest capital outflow included: - Northern Rare Earth: -1.22%, turnover rate 8.90%, net outflow 2.518 billion yuan - Huayou Cobalt: -7.74%, turnover rate 7.85%, net outflow 1.011 billion yuan - Luoyang Molybdenum: -3.18%, turnover rate 2.59%, net outflow 919.66 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.05% on October 10, with significant losses in certain stocks, particularly Jingyi Co., which fell by 9.37% [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Pengxin Resources: Closed at 7.99, up 10.06% with a trading volume of 2.11 million shares and a turnover of 1.62 billion - Baiyin Nonferrous: Closed at 5.08, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 2.60 million shares and a turnover of 1.29 billion - Jiangxi Copper: Closed at 42.10, up 7.84% with a trading volume of 1.80 million shares and a turnover of 7.53 billion [1]. - Significant decliners included: - Jingyi Co.: Closed at 14.71, down 9.37% with a trading volume of 768,600 shares and a turnover of 1.18 billion - Jincheng Mining: Closed at 68.08, down 9.08% with a trading volume of 177,300 shares and a turnover of 1.24 billion - Electric Alloy: Closed at 18.26, down 7.82% with a trading volume of 385,300 shares and a turnover of 722 million [2]. Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 6.639 billion from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 5.439 billion [2][3]. - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Baiyin Nonferrous: Main funds net inflow of 177 million, retail funds net outflow of 878.88 million - Pengxin Resources: Main funds net inflow of 170 million, retail funds net outflow of 636.48 million [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the US [1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the strengthening dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while copper prices are currently leading gains among base metals, there is a need for caution regarding potential pullbacks if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1] - There are expectations of tighter supply and demand dynamics for copper, aluminum, and tin, which may lead to increased prices for base metals in the long term due to ongoing supply disruptions [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on October 10, with significant pullbacks in previously strong sectors such as chips, batteries, and non-ferrous metals [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced its first decline after reaching a new high, dropping by 3.35% [1] - Despite the pullback, there was a notable inflow of funds into the Non-ferrous 50 ETF, with a net subscription of 191 million shares and nearly 300 million yuan in net inflow during the trading session [1] Market Performance - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a decline of 3.35%, with a trading price of 1.499 yuan [1] - The ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in net inflows over the past five days and more than 1 billion yuan over the past 20 days, reaching a total scale of over 2.6 billion yuan, a record high since its listing [1] - Major component stocks of the Non-ferrous 50 ETF mostly retreated, with Huayou Cobalt down over 8% and Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others down over 5% [1] Sector Composition - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF covers a wide range of metals, including gold, copper, and rare earths, with a copper content of 30%, leading among similar indices in the market [2] - The ETF's top ten component stocks include significant players in the non-ferrous sector, with varying weightings and performance [1][2] Price Trends and Forecasts - Gold prices have decreased due to reduced risk appetite and profit-taking, influenced by geopolitical developments such as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, with Teck Resources lowering its production guidance for 2025 and 2026 [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,000 to $10,500 per ton, citing structural demand growth and resource constraints [5] Investment Opportunities - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side constraints, new demand dynamics, and global economic trends [6] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on these trends, given its higher gold and copper content compared to peers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector remains mixed, with significant movements in stock prices and ongoing policy changes affecting supply dynamics in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF showed weak performance, with a decline of 3.1% and a trading volume of 1.21 billion yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 4.83 billion yuan [1]. - Silver stocks performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase, while companies like Western Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt experienced declines of 8.27%, 6.98%, and 6.66% respectively [1]. Group 2: Policy and Supply Dynamics - The Trump administration is discussing investments in critical metals companies, particularly concerning Greenland's largest rare earth project [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented export controls on rare earth-related technologies, tightening supply policies and maintaining strong price trends in the rare earth sector [2]. - Western Securities predicts that the supply of secondary resource recycling will reach 27% by 2025, indicating a fully controlled supply side with limited potential for sudden increases [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with supply constraints from major copper producers due to safety incidents in Indonesia, contributing to rising prices for copper and aluminum [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals index include major players such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2].

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