2025 年 04 月 29 日 公司点评 买入/首次 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 48.47/48.47 总市值/流通(亿元) 677.17/677.17 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 18.65/11.86 相关研究报告 中金黄金(600489) 证券分析师：刘强 电话： E-MAIL：liuqiang@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522080001 证券分析师：梁必果 电话： E-MAIL：liangbg@tpyzq.com 昨收盘:13.97 事件：2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。 2024 年公司实现收入 655.56 亿元，同比+7.01%；归母净利润 33.86 亿 元，同比+13.71%；扣非净利润 35.32 亿元，同比+18.25%。2025 年一季 度，公司实现收入 148.59 亿元，同比+12.88%，环比-23.84%；归母净利 润 10.38 亿元，同比+32.65%，环比+39.79%；扣非净利润 12.68 亿元，同 比+71.13%，环比+38.76%。 业绩显著增长，盈利能力持续提升 ◼ 走势 ...

Core Points - The State Grid Shandong Electric Power has established 4,476 public charging stations, capable of charging 26,000 new energy vehicles simultaneously [3] - During the May Day holiday, the company conducted special inspections on 2,191 charging stations and repaired 5,132 charging piles to ensure the stability of charging facilities [4] - The company has deployed mobile emergency charging units at 10 key charging stations to alleviate peak charging pressure [3][4] Group 1 - The company has developed a holiday charging service guarantee plan, including real-time monitoring of charging stations and on-site service personnel at high-traffic areas [6][7] - A total of 51 key highway charging stations were identified for enhanced service during the holiday, with promotional activities to guide new energy vehicle owners [3][4] - The company has upgraded 16 highway service area charging stations, adding 50 new or modified DC fast charging terminals [4] Group 2 - The company has collaborated with Shandong Traffic Radio to provide real-time travel tips and launched promotional coupons for new charging stations [3] - Emergency service teams have been established to ensure quality charging services at scenic spots and urban charging stations [6][7] - The company aims to support the booming cultural tourism economy by providing excellent charging services at tourist attractions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 655.56 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.86 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 148.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.79% [5] - The average gold price in 2024 was 2386 USD/ounce, up 23% year-on-year, with prices continuing to rise into 2025 [6] - The company invested 2.95 billion yuan in exploration in 2024, resulting in an increase of gold reserves by 30.3 tons and copper reserves by 114,800 tons [7] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits of 43.7 billion yuan, 48.5 billion yuan, and 52.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [8] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 65,883 million yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5% [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 16.9% in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 655.56 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.86 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 148.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.79% [5] - The average gold price in 2024 was 2386 USD/ounce, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The prices continued to rise, reaching 2660.3 USD/ounce in Q4 2024 and 2855.7 USD/ounce in Q1 2025 [6] - The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, with Q1 production of 4.51 tons of gold and 18,900 tons of copper, showing stable mining output [6] - The company invested 295 million yuan in exploration in 2024, completing significant drilling and exploration activities, which increased the reserves of gold and copper [7] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits of 43.7 billion yuan in 2025, 48.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 52.2 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 respectively [8] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include a revenue of 655.56 billion yuan, a net profit of 33.86 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 15.2% [9] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 65,883 million yuan, with a net profit of 43.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29% [9]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 65.56 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.84% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 1.038 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.79% [1] Financial Performance - The average prices of gold and copper in the domestic market increased by 23.8% and 10% respectively in 2024, contributing to the company's performance [2] - The company’s total operating expenses for 2024 were 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with a slight increase in the expense ratio [3] - The company experienced a decrease in gold production by 0.54 tons to 18.35 tons in 2024, while copper production increased by 2,077.28 tons to 82,000 tons [4] Resource Management and Projects - The company enhanced resource security, increasing gold reserves by 30.3 tons and copper reserves by 114,800 tons in 2024 [5] - Key projects are progressing well, with total investment in ongoing projects reaching 1.024 billion yuan [5] - In Q1 2025, the company produced 4.5 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, benefiting from rising gold and copper prices [6] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits of 4.83 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan, and 5.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42.7%, 11.6%, and 4.8% respectively [6] - A target price of 17.9 yuan is set based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a strong buy rating [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中金黄金（600489）2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 强推（维持） 金、铜价格上行带动业绩稳步增长 目标价：17.9 元 事项： 评论： 金、铜价格上行带动 24 年业绩稳步提升。2024 年，国内黄金、铜市场均价分 别同比+23.8%、+10%，其中四季度黄金、铜均价分别同比+30.6%、+11%，分 别环比+7.9%、+0.3%。受益金价上行，公司全年实现归母净利润 33.86 亿元， 同比增长 13.71%，其中四季度实现营业收入 195.11 亿元，同比+24.21%，环 比+11.41%，归母净利润 7.43 亿元，同比-17.98%，环比-17.5%。其中湖北三鑫 金铜净利润 10.2 亿元（+27.9%）、内蒙古矿业 22.8 亿元（-0.24%）、河南中原 黄金冶炼厂 5.6 亿元（-10.65%）。 公司研究 黄金 2025 年 04 月 30 日 当前价：13.97 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.37 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust operational performance with a revenue of 65.56 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit of 3.39 billion RMB, up 13.71% year-over-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong results, with revenue reaching 14.86 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion RMB, up 32.65% year-over-year [1][3]. - The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, with additional resource increases of 33.5 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper [2]. Financial Performance - The average prices for gold and copper in 2024 increased by 23.83% and 9.67% year-over-year, respectively, contributing to the company's performance despite asset impairment losses of 590 million RMB [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to benefit from rising metal prices, with gold and copper prices increasing by 37.2% and 11.52% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.94 RMB, with expected growth rates of 34.11% and 26.99% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.41 for 2025, compared to the industry average of 15.83, reflecting the company's unique position as a state-owned enterprise in the gold sector [5][13]. - The projected market capitalization is approximately 67.72 billion RMB, with a closing price of 13.97 RMB as of April 29, 2025 [9].

Group 1 - The company plans to sign a financial service agreement with China National Gold Group Finance Co., Ltd. for the period from 2025 to 2028, with a maximum daily deposit balance of RMB 10 billion and a loan service limit not exceeding the maximum credit limit [21][23] - This transaction constitutes a related party transaction and does not constitute a major asset restructuring [22] - The agreement aims to broaden the company's financing channels, reduce financing costs, and improve capital management efficiency [23] Group 2 - The company will provide loan guarantees for its subsidiaries, including RMB 140 million for Jiapigou Company, RMB 150 million for Henan Jinyuan, RMB 130 million for Songxian Jinniu, RMB 125 million for Zhongjin Songxian Songyuan, and RMB 80 million for Hebei Yueri [38][39] - The total amount of external guarantees after this loan will be RMB 818.09 million, accounting for 2.99% of the company's latest audited net assets [61][62] - The guarantees are necessary to meet the operational needs of the subsidiaries and ensure stable business development [60] Group 3 - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Henan Zhongyuan Gold Smelting Plant, plans to engage in hedging activities to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in the market for gold, silver, copper, and nickel [66][69] - The maximum margin for the hedging business will not exceed RMB 700 million, with a hedging scale limit of 29 tons of gold, 217 tons of silver, 35,000 tons of copper, and 361 tons of nickel [70][71] - The hedging activities will be conducted on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and are aimed at maintaining stable operational performance [66][69]

Core Viewpoint - 中金黄金's net profit for 2024 increased by over 10% year-on-year, but it underperformed compared to the rise in gold prices [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, 中金黄金 achieved operating revenue of 65.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.01% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 3.532 billion yuan, an increase of 18.25% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.88% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 was 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.65% [1] Comparison with Peers - Compared to major listed gold mining companies, 中金黄金's net profit growth of 13.71% is significantly lower than the over 50% growth seen in peers like 山东黄金, 山金国际, 湖南黄金, and 赤峰黄金 [1][2] Business Segments - 中金黄金's gold business consists mainly of two segments: smelting and mining, with smelting accounting for about 90% of revenue [2] - The gross profit margin for smelting has been around 2%-4%, which is considerably lower than the 40%-50% margin for mining [2] Production Plans - For 2024, 中金黄金 plans to produce 18.35 tons of mined gold, 37.95 tons of smelted gold, 82,000 tons of mined copper, and 396,900 tons of electrolytic copper, with year-on-year changes of -2.86%, -7.14%, +2.60%, and -3.42% respectively [2] - The company has set production targets for 2025, planning to produce 18.17 tons of mined gold and 35.30 tons of smelted gold, with similar year-on-year declines [2] Market Outlook - For 2025, 中金黄金 anticipates that inflation will remain above target levels, while the US dollar is expected to stabilize or weaken slightly [2] - Although global economic growth is improving, it remains below trend levels, which may support gold demand as a safe haven [2] - However, the company notes that the demand for gold jewelry may weaken, and the growth momentum for investment demand may slow compared to 2024, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in gold prices [2]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Zhongguangtianze plans to acquire 100% equity of Changsha Sports Industry Company for 29.6 million yuan, constituting a related party transaction [1] Earnings Disclosure - JinkoSolar reported a revenue of 13.843 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 40.03%, with a net loss of 1.39 billion yuan compared to a net profit of 1.176 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Zhongjin Gold reported a revenue of 14.859 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, up 32.65% year-on-year [3] - Northern Rare Earth achieved a revenue of 9.287 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 61.19%, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, up 727.3% year-on-year [4] - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 50.601 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, with a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [5] Share Buybacks - Shanjin International plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 100 million and 200 million yuan at a price not exceeding 29.7 yuan per share [6] - Sichuan Road and Bridge plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 100 million and 200 million yuan at a price not exceeding 12.54 yuan per share [7] - China Railway plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 800 million and 1.6 billion yuan at a price not exceeding 8.5 yuan per share [8] - Anhui Construction's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company with a total amount not exceeding 200 million yuan [9][10] Risk Matters - Chuangxing Resources' stock will be subject to delisting risk warning starting May 6, 2025, due to negative net profit for the fiscal year 2024 [11] - Yong'an Pharmaceutical clarified that rumors regarding a significant price increase of taurine are untrue [12] - *ST Xulan's stock will be delisted on April 30, 2025, as decided by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [13] - Dawi Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the company's total shares due to personal financial needs [14]