2026.01.05 本文字数：883，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经栾立 "i茅台"连日"秒空"的同时，抢到的平价茅台也开始陆续出现在各大二手交易平台上。 记者在部分网站看到，有些订单甚至上午刚刚抢到，下午就已经加价50元到100元不等挂网出售，出售者中既有自用者也有部分个人投机者。 平台上甚至有部分商户将代抢"i茅台"平价飞天茅台作为服务出售，叫价200元到300元/箱不等。 记者在与多位卖家沟通后了解到，部分卖家是抱着试试赚一票的心态，抽中后立即出售，或者抽中后只保留部分产品；但也有部分卖家本身就从事其他商 品倒卖生意，希望从茅台上套利。 如果按照一箱茅台8994元计算，一箱的收益率仅为3.3%到6.7%，并不算高。有酒商告诉记者，近期茅台线下市场需求并没有快速放大，因此抢购者中还 是有不少抱着投机心态的参与者。考虑到"i茅台"是官方渠道，能够保真，价格合适的话出货难度并不大。 在业内看来，个人投机需求会不会亏本，还要看未来茅台市场价格的走势情况，目前看短期内1499元官方指导价附近有较强支撑。根据多家第三方交易平 台数据，今日2026年飞天茅台的批发价散瓶微跌至1490元/瓶左右，原箱价格依然稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with a focus on major stocks, sector performances, and ETF trading volumes, indicating potential investment opportunities and trends in the market [1][2][3][4]. Trading Volume Summary - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 135.21 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 160.70 billion, totaling 295.91 billion [2]. - Major stocks by trading volume included Kweichow Moutai at 32.39 billion and Ningde Times at 50.67 billion, leading their respective markets [3][4]. Sector Performance - The electronic sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, amounting to 73.31 billion, with a net inflow rate of 1.67% [6]. - Other sectors with notable inflows included pharmaceuticals (41.63 billion, 3.15%) and non-ferrous metals (35.60 billion, 2.23%) [6]. - Conversely, the machinery equipment sector experienced the largest outflow, with a net outflow of 53.62 billion [7]. Individual Stock Activity - The top stocks with net inflows included Shenghong Technology (19.67 billion, 11.86%) and Zhaoyi Innovation (16.83 billion, 14.56%) [9]. - Stocks with significant outflows included Aerospace Electronics (-20.49 billion, -12.81%) and China Tang (-16.82 billion, -8.65%) [10]. ETF Trading Activity - The top ETF by trading volume was A50 ETF Huatai Baichuan, with a transaction amount of 15.87 billion, followed closely by A50 ETF Fund at 15.67 billion [13]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF saw a remarkable increase in trading volume, growing by 378% compared to the previous trading day [14]. 龙虎榜 (Top Stocks) - AI application stock BlueFocus saw a significant increase, with two institutions buying 1.86 billion, while it also received 1.56 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [16]. - In contrast, several aerospace concept stocks faced heavy selling, with Zhongchao Holdings experiencing a sell-off of 2.2 billion from three institutions [17]. Active Trading by Institutions and Retail Investors - Institutional trading was notably active, with significant purchases in stocks like BlueFocus and Jianglong Shipbuilding [16]. - Retail investors showed high activity in lithium battery concept stocks, with Tianji Co. receiving substantial purchases from multiple trading desks [18]. Quantitative Fund Activity - Quantitative funds were also active, with significant purchases in stocks like Wuzhou New Spring, indicating a diverse interest across sectors [20].

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai has established a new subsidiary, Guizhou Aimaotai Digital Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, focusing on digital transformation and technology services [2][3] - The new company will engage in various services including internet live streaming technology, blockchain-related software and services, integrated circuit chip sales, and industrial internet data services [2][3] - The official announcement from iMoutai revealed that starting January 1, 2026, a limited quantity of 53% vol 500ml Flying Moutai will be available for purchase, with a price set at 1499 RMB and a daily purchase limit of 12 bottles per user [3][4] Group 2 - Following the initial launch, iMoutai adjusted the purchase limit to 6 bottles per user on January 3, 2026, yet the app continued to show "restocking" on January 4, indicating high demand [4] - Over the New Year holiday, more than 100,000 users successfully purchased Moutai products, demonstrating strong consumer interest [4] - Moutai distributors, such as Chengdu Chuantang Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., have also initiated promotional activities, allowing customers to pre-order up to 5 bottles of Flying Moutai at the same price [4]

| 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入(亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | 排名 | 电子 | 73.31 | 1 | 1.67 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 半导体 | 53.07 | 2.70 | 3 | 医药 | 41.63 | 3.15 | | 4 | | | | | | | | | 2.23 | 有色金属 | 35.60 | 非银金融 | 31.78 | 4.58 | | | 龙虎榜方面，今日锂电池概念股表现强势，多家一线游资抢筹。其中天际股份获（国泰海通证券宜昌沿江大道、国泰海通证券河源越王大道、国泰海通证券 上海江苏路）分别买入2.19亿、1亿、0.6亿。盐湖股份获（国泰海通证券上海江苏路、中信证券西安朱雀大街）分别买入1.08亿、0.91亿。AI应用概念股蓝 色光标走出2连板，获两家机构买入1.86亿，同时获深股通买入1.56亿，而两家一线游资（国盛证券宁波桑田路、国泰海通证券宁波广福街）分别卖出2.9 亿、1.94亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1352.07亿，深股通总成交金额为1606 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Today, 11 stocks received buy ratings from institutions, with Tian Ci Materials having its rating upgraded and Min Sida and China National Foreign Trade being newly covered by institutions [1] Group 1: Institutional Ratings - A total of 13 buy ratings were issued today, covering 11 stocks, with Tian Ci Materials and Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention, each having 2 buy ratings [1] - Among the stocks rated, 6 provided future target prices, with 5 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%. Guizhou Moutai has the highest upside potential at 82.33%, with a target price of 2600.00 yuan set by Huachuang Securities [1][2] - Other stocks with significant upside potential include Qibin Group and Shiji Information, with upside potentials of 73.03% and 30.30% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 2.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. Ten stocks saw price increases, with Min Sida, Qibin Group, and Shiji Information leading the gains at 8.72%, 5.06%, and 4.52% respectively [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Ratings - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 yuan and a latest closing price of 1426.00 yuan [2] - Min Sida was rated as "Increase" by GF Securities with a target price of 54.34 yuan and a latest closing price of 44.49 yuan [2] - Tian Ci Materials received buy ratings from both CITIC Securities and Western Securities, with a latest closing price of 48.04 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect today reached 295.9 billion, with Kweichow Moutai and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume [1][2] - The electronic sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the mechanical equipment sector experienced the largest net outflow [6][5] - The top ten stocks by trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect included Kweichow Moutai at 32.39 billion, while on the Shenzhen Stock Connect, CATL led with 50.67 billion [3][4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) saw a significant trading volume increase of 378% compared to the previous trading day [10] - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included the A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan (563360) at 158.67 billion, followed closely by the A500 ETF Fund (512050) at 156.67 billion [9] - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of funds included Shenghong Technology at 19.67 billion and Kweichow Moutai at 9.75 billion [7][12] Group 3 - The AI application concept stock BlueFocus achieved a two-day consecutive increase, attracting 186 million from two institutions, while it also received 156 million from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [13][15] - The lithium battery concept stocks performed strongly, with Tianji Co. receiving significant purchases from multiple leading funds [15][14] - The trading activity of quantitative funds was notably high, with several firms making substantial purchases in various stocks [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in demand for "i Moutai," which has been selling out rapidly, and the subsequent appearance of these products on second-hand trading platforms at marked-up prices. This trend highlights the speculative behavior among some consumers and the dynamics of the Moutai market [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - "i Moutai" launched the 1499 yuan Flying Moutai on January 1, 2026, and has sold out for five consecutive days, indicating high demand [5]. - The current market recovery price for this batch of Moutai is between 1400 yuan and 1450 yuan per bottle, suggesting limited arbitrage opportunities for resellers [5]. - In offline and some instant retail channels, the market price for Flying Moutai ranges from 1550 yuan to 1600 yuan per bottle, still providing a slight profit margin for speculators [5]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior - Some sellers on second-hand platforms are reselling "i Moutai" bottles at a markup of 50 to 100 yuan shortly after purchase, indicating a mix of personal use and speculative intent [3][6]. - Certain merchants are offering services to help consumers secure "i Moutai" at prices ranging from 200 to 300 yuan per box, reflecting the speculative nature of the market [6]. - The profit margin for reselling a box of Moutai, priced at 8994 yuan, is estimated to be only 3.3% to 6.7%, which is relatively low, suggesting that many participants are motivated by speculation rather than substantial profit [6].

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai has officially launched its new product "Gu Le Fei Tian" following the release of "San Hua Fei Tian," showcasing a blend of traditional craftsmanship and cultural themes [1] Product Details - The new product features packaging inspired by Dunhuang murals and is crafted using traditional ceramic techniques, glaze colors, and rock painting styles [1] - The retail price for "Gu Le Fei Tian" is set at 2,699 yuan per bottle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai held the 2026 Oriental Theme Color Launch Conference, showcasing various products including the zodiac-themed liquor for the Year of the Horse [1] Product Launch - Kweichow Moutai introduced the Moutai Prince Liquor (Year of the Horse), featuring a "North Purple" color scheme and a hand-painted illustration on the bottle depicting "One Horse Leading the Way," complemented by elements such as mountains, horse silver flowers, and auspicious clouds [1] - Additionally, Kweichow Moutai launched the Guizhou Daqu Liquor (Year of the Horse), which utilizes a "Twilight Mountain Purple" color scheme and incorporates a three-dimensional relief craft on the bottle [1]