2025.06. 15 本文字数：2318，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2015年6月12日上证指数创下历史次高的5178.19点。回望5178点以来，行业指数价格超越2015年 年中最高点的行业寥寥无几，沪指在不同阶段由不同行业催化出结构性行情，核心波动范围为2700 点-3600点。 近十年间，A股经历了估值回归、产业结构升级，指数虽未重返高点，但一批真正具备成长性的企业 穿越牛熊。 第一财经记者梳理统计发现，以申万一级行业31项指数为基准（2015年6月12日至2025年6月13日 收盘，后复权计算），表现最突出的三大行业是食品饮料、家用电器、银行，其余28个行业指数还 没超过5178点时的点位。 行业与个股的分化是过去十年的主旋律，并不是每只食品饮料、家电或银行股都能跑赢指数或平均水 准，激励的竞争与行业格局改写过程中，龙头股才能收获超额收益，其盈利能力（ROE）和增长质 量（现金流）是核心估值的标尺。 十年间，通信、电子、生物医药、机械设备等一级行业的170余只细分龙头股，实现累计涨幅超 300%。领涨市场的行业与个股，其背后是宏观经济转型与产业结构升级，记者进一步统计，近十年 ...

行业分化与结构性行情成为近十年A股市场的主旋律，银行更是跑出了绝大多数投资者想象不到的十年。 2015年6月12日上证指数创下历史次高的5178.19点。回望5178点以来，行业指数价格超越2015年年中最高点的行业寥寥无几，沪指 在不同阶段由不同行业催化出结构性行情，核心波动范围为2700点-3600点。 近十年间，A股经历了估值回归、产业结构升级，指数虽未重返高点，但一批真正具备成长性的企业穿越牛熊。 第一财经记者梳理统计发现，以申万一级行业31项指数为基准（2015年6月12日至2025年6月13日收盘，后复权计算），表现最突出 的三大行业是食品饮料、家用电器、银行，其余28个行业指数还没超过5178点时的点位。 行业与个股的分化是过去十年的主旋律，并不是每只食品饮料、家电或银行股都能跑赢指数或平均水准，激励的竞争与行业格局改 写过程中，龙头股才能收获超额收益，其盈利能力（ROE）和增长质量（现金流）是核心估值的标尺。 十年间，通信、电子、生物医药、机械设备等一级行业的170余只细分龙头股，实现累计涨幅超300%。领涨市场的行业与个股，其 背后是宏观经济转型与产业结构升级，记者进一步统计，近十年涨幅前2 ...

资金流情绪相对偏弱， 建议在配置上偏向防守 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W24） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W24)：资金流情绪相对偏 弱，建议在配置上偏向防守 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor segment is experiencing short-term price pressure, but the industry is gradually bottoming out, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye expected to show long-term value [2]. - The beverage sector is seeing intensified competition as companies like Uni-President re-enter the soda market, while new product launches continue to drive growth [3]. - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in China is projected to grow by 0.8% in sales and 4.4% in volume in 2024, with a notable trend towards "affordable alternatives" [4]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Short-term price pressures are evident, with the industry expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and consumer demand shifts back to business and mass-market needs [2]. - Leading brands are anticipated to maintain their market share, providing a solid foundation for long-term investment opportunities [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is entering a peak season with increased competition, and companies are advised to focus on those with strong product momentum and stable operations [3]. - The beverage segment is characterized by a resurgence in product innovation, with Uni-President launching new flavors targeting the restaurant channel [3]. Food Sector - The food industry is witnessing significant innovation, with companies like Anjuke Foods successfully navigating the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing process and launching new products to enhance revenue [4][8]. - The report highlights the importance of exploring new market channels and product opportunities, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumer spending is on the rise [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the Moutai brand, is experiencing significant price fluctuations amidst a seasonal downturn and promotional activities, raising questions about the sustainability of its pricing and market dynamics [2][3]. Price Stability and Market Dynamics - The actual transaction price of Moutai in Henan is stabilizing around 2100 RMB per bottle, with some variations noted in different stores [2]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to the traditional summer off-season for liquor consumption and an ample market supply, leading to more accessible pricing [2]. - E-commerce platforms are engaging in aggressive price-cutting strategies, which some analysts view as unsustainable marketing tactics rather than genuine market pricing [3]. Changing Consumption Patterns - There is a notable increase in the opening rate of Moutai bottles, with 40% of bottles being opened at events like weddings, indicating a shift from investment and collection to consumption [4]. - The consumer base is evolving from high-end real estate developers to middle-class families, reflecting a broader market trend towards quality living [5]. Value Proposition and Brand Positioning - Moutai is transitioning from being viewed as a "circulation symbol" to a product meant for consumption, reinforcing its deep-rooted value logic [6]. - The brand's pricing resilience is linked to its quality barriers, which include a complex production process and a commitment to high-quality products [6]. - Moutai's scarcity is a critical factor in its value, with its annual production capacity being only 0.6% of China's total liquor output, emphasizing its unique geographical and cultural heritage [6]. Social Currency and Cultural Significance - Moutai retains its status as a "hard currency" in social settings, maintaining its irreplaceable role in high-end gatherings and cultural traditions [7].

2.近几年次新酒的价格，因为年份加持而价格更高，少有炒家介入，更能代表实际的饮用及收藏属性。可以看到的是，近期虽然2025年、2024年飞天茅 台酒出现了一定的下降，但是2023年及以前的飞天茅台酒价格十分稳定，并未发生明显变化。其中，2023年原件飞天茅台酒市场为2450元/瓶，年份每增 加一年市场价增加近100元/瓶。 一个月前的贵州茅台股东大会，很多中小股东从全国各地赶往茅台，其中一位在茅台上市后第三天买入并持有茅台至今的中小股东备受关注，这种"价值 投资"的方式引起了共鸣。近日，电商6·18等事件对白酒行业带来影响时，价值投资者并未感到担忧，他们认为："短期市场波动会带来噪声，只有专注 于长期才能看到企业的未来价值。" 这种长期主义同样反应在茅台酒经销商以及部分经营了十年甚至二十年的烟酒行身上，除了经历多轮周期的经验之外，更深层次的是市场表现带来的信 心。 饮用属性更加突出，品质与渠道成终端消费关注点 对于近期价格的下跌，多位酒商表示："日常客户的用酒需求必须满足，其余的不着急出酒，价格的下跌主要是黄牛炒作行为造成的。这种突然的下跌往 往会伴随着回升，更何况中秋行情马上就会到来。" 实际上，观察茅台酒 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 10.38 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 112.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 908.7 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 288.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [2] Group 3 - On June 16, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of six months to maintain liquidity in the banking system [3] - The central bank noted that monthly differences in deposit data should be understood from a longer-term perspective, as various factors can cause significant fluctuations [3] Group 4 - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan [4] - Corporate loans increased by 9.8 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 3.14 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 6.16 trillion yuan [4] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China announced a second reverse repurchase operation in June, indicating a net liquidity injection for the month [5] - The central bank's actions reflect a high demand for liquidity from financial institutions during a critical assessment period [5] Group 6 - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced it will intensify antitrust enforcement in the pharmaceutical sector to protect public health and ensure affordable medication [6] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management allocated 40 million yuan for disaster relief efforts in response to severe weather events [6] Group 7 - The National Development and Reform Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft management measures for cross-regional electricity emergency dispatch [6] - The measures aim to prioritize market-based resource allocation in the event of safety risks or power imbalances [6] Group 8 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [8] - Zhejiang Securities' 10 billion yuan public bond project has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] Group 9 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public consultation on the classification evaluation of futures companies to enhance regulatory efficiency [10] - The draft includes new scoring standards and simplifies the evaluation process for futures companies [10] Group 10 - The Beijing Stock Exchange extended the exemption of transaction fees for bond trading until December 31, 2026 [11] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange took self-regulatory measures against 141 instances of abnormal trading behavior [12] Group 11 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the IPO registration application for Aifenda on the Growth Enterprise Market [15] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's listing committee approved the initial public offering of Daosheng Tianhe [14] Group 12 - The State Council discussed the construction of a new model for real estate development to stabilize the market [16] - The meeting emphasized the importance of policy support in planning, land, finance, and other areas to promote healthy real estate development [16] Group 13 - The export value of China's industrial robots increased by 55.4% in the first five months of the year, driven by higher levels of intelligence and customization [19] - The domestic drone industry is gaining attention as low-altitude economy becomes a new growth engine [19] Group 14 - France aims to become a global hub for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with President Macron emphasizing the need for local production of cutting-edge chips [20] - AMD launched its flagship AI chips to compete with Nvidia, with analysts noting the potential impact of the upcoming MI400 product [22]

Group 1 - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with the white liquor index dropping 4.8% this week and a year-to-date decline of 17.4% [1][2] - Several companies, including Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yanghe, have seen their stock prices hit new lows for the year, with Gujing Gongjiu's stock price reaching a five-year low [2][3] - The decline in high-end liquor prices is attributed to limited consumption scenarios, increased pressure on channels for cash flow, and the impact of e-commerce subsidies [1][3] Group 2 - The basic performance of the industry is under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price decreasing by 70 yuan week-on-week, and the original box price down by 90 yuan [3] - The second quarter is expected to show weak fundamentals, with inventory levels increasing post-Duanwu Festival and companies focusing on promotions and destocking [3][4] - Despite the current challenges, there are three positive factors that may support a more optimistic outlook for the industry, including the stabilization of Moutai's wholesale price and the proactive strategies of leading companies [5]

近期，新消费龙头泡泡玛特持续创新高，而传统消费龙头贵州茅台，带着整个白酒板块日益走低。当前来看，贵州茅台与泡泡玛特，哪个更值得投 资？ 雪球APP用户@ 贫民窟的大富翁 ：白酒的基本面很不乐观，为什么要买茅台？ 拼多多618贵州飞天茅台已经1890元一瓶，泸州老窖1573跌到了1545元两瓶，五粮液普五第八代1624元两瓶，实在是惨中惨。 但是大家有没有发现，当这三款白酒降价后，其他白酒都没人关注了。这就是白酒消费的底层逻辑：白酒的整个行业在持续萎缩，但是名酒的消费 比例在增加。 针对雪球APP发起的这一话题，投资者争相发表自己的观点，根据投票来看，56%的投资者选择茅台，44%的投资者选择泡泡玛特。 01 看好茅台 雪球APP用户@ 大唐炼金师 ：一个线下投资的朋友大G，在上周清仓了持有三年多的茅台，他觉得这次对公务用酒的政策，对白酒的影响将是深远 的、长久的。 但都是朋友，平常也有交流，这次我们也聊了，我问了他一个问题，原话是：以前很多投资者都羡慕，那些在2013年塑化剂时，勇敢坚守，甚至是 全仓茅台的人。现在为何同样的机会来了，很多人却不敢买了呢？难道这不是一种叶公好龙？ 他的回答也很有道理，他说：那时 ...

近期，新消费龙头泡泡玛特持续创新高，而传统消费龙头贵州茅台，带着整个白酒板块日益走低。当前来看，贵州茅台与泡泡玛特，哪个更值得投 资？ 针对雪球APP发起的这一话题，投资者争相发表自己的观点，根据投票来看，56%的投资者选择茅台，44%的投资者选择泡泡玛特。 01 看好茅台 雪球APP用户@ 大唐炼金师 ：一个线下投资的朋友大G，在上周清仓了持有三年多的茅台，他觉得这次对公务用酒的政策，对白酒的影响将是深远 的、长久的。 但都是朋友，平常也有交流，这次我们也聊了，我问了他一个问题，原话是：以前很多投资者都羡慕，那些在2013年塑化剂时，勇敢坚守，甚至是 全仓茅台的人。现在为何同样的机会来了，很多人却不敢买了呢？难道这不是一种叶公好龙？ 他的回答也很有道理，他说：那时候茅台最低跌到了8PE，现在的茅台还有20多PE呢，如果茅台跌到了10PE以下，可能还会买回来的。 投资确实是没有标准答案的事情，如果有更好的公司选择，卖出茅台换仓也不见得就不是价值投资。而我只能对自己的投资和人生负责，我觉得现 在茅台比存银行好，也比拿着很多其它我懂一点的公司好，所以我选择继续拿着，就这么简单。 雪球APP用户@ 夏日可乐冰西瓜 ...