来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 25 日，公司披露 24 年三季报，期内实现营业总收入 1231.2 亿元，同比+16.9%；归母净利 608.3 亿元，同比+15.0%。 其中，24Q3 实现营业总收入 396.7 亿元，同比+15.6%；归母净利 191.3 亿元，同比+13.2%，业绩符合市场预期。 经营分析 分产品看：1）24Q1-Q3 茅台酒/系列酒分别实现营收 1011.3/193.9 亿元，同比+15.9%/+24.4%。其中，单 Q3 分别实现营收 325.6/62.5 亿元，同比+16.3%/+13.1%。2）预计茅台酒内部结构仍有提升， Q3 飞天茅台仍享受提价红利，叠加非标产品有所增量贡献营收增 长。3）系列酒增速放缓预计受茅台 1935 渠道优化影响。 分渠道看：1）24Q1-Q3 直销/批发代理分别实现营收 519.9/685.3 亿元，同比+12.5%/+21.0%。其中，单 Q3 分别实现营收 182.6/205.4 亿元，同比+23.5%/+9.7%。i 茅台渠道 Q3 不含税收入 45.2 亿元， 同比-18.4%。2）考虑 i 茅台同比下滑 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of RMB 2,240.12 [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a total revenue of RMB 123.1 billion, up 16.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 60.8 billion, up 15.0% YoY [4] - The company is expected to achieve its full-year revenue growth target of 15%, driven by structured product efforts and flexible shipment adjustments [3][4] - Non-standard Moutai products are expected to grow at a double-digit rate in Q4, supporting the company's revenue growth [4] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached RMB 39.7 billion, up 15.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 19.1 billion, up 13.2% YoY [4] - Gross profit margin for Q3 was 91.05%, down 0.47 pct YoY, while net profit margin was 48.23%, down 0.99 pct YoY [4] - Pre-sale deposits stood at RMB 11.2 billion at the end of Q3, flat compared to Q2 [4] Product and Channel Analysis - Moutai liquor revenue in Q3 was RMB 32.6 billion, up 16.3% YoY, while series liquor revenue was RMB 6.2 billion, up 13.1% YoY [4] - Direct sales channel revenue grew 23.5% YoY to RMB 18.3 billion, while wholesale channel revenue grew 9.7% YoY to RMB 20.5 billion [4] - The iMoutai platform contributed RMB 4.5 billion in Q3, down 18.4% YoY, accounting for 12% of total revenue [4] Market and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is RMB 1,958.2 billion, with a 52-week price range of RMB 1,261.00 to RMB 1,812.00 [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 22.79x for 2024E, with a target P/E of 33x for 2024 [4] - The company's price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 9.0x, and the net debt ratio is -26.58% [8] Industry Comparison - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 21x for 2024E, with an average revenue CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2025 [12] - Key competitors include Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with revenue growth rates ranging from 4% to 25% [12]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached RMB 38.845 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.29%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 19.132 billion, up 13.23% compared to the same period last year[2] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 123.12 billion RMB, a 16.9% increase compared to 105.32 billion RMB in the same period of 2023[14] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 60.83 billion RMB, up 15.0% from 52.88 billion RMB in the same period of 2023[15] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 63.03 billion RMB, a 15.0% increase compared to 54.83 billion RMB in the same period of 2023[15] - Sales revenue from goods and services for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 129.69 billion, an increase of 16.6% compared to RMB 111.25 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 48.42, up 15.0% from RMB 42.09 in the same period of 2023[17] - Total comprehensive income attributable to minority shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 2.20 billion, an increase of 13.0% compared to RMB 1.95 billion in the same period of 2023[17] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period amounted to RMB 286.771 billion, an increase of 5.16% from the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets increased to 286.77 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 272.70 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10][11] - Current assets rose to 238.42 billion RMB from 225.17 billion RMB at the end of 2023, driven by increases in monetary funds and inventory[10] - Inventory grew to 48.22 billion RMB, up from 46.44 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Non-current assets increased to 48.35 billion RMB from 47.53 billion RMB at the end of 2023, with growth in fixed assets and construction in progress[11] - Fixed assets rose to 20.24 billion RMB, up from 19.91 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Construction in progress increased to 2.88 billion RMB from 2.14 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Total liabilities as of the end of Q3 2024 stood at 39.08 billion RMB, a decrease from 49.04 billion RMB at the end of Q3 2023[12] - Total owner's equity reached 247.69 billion RMB at the end of Q3 2024, up from 223.66 billion RMB at the end of Q3 2023[12] - Contract liabilities decreased to 9.93 billion RMB from 14.13 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Accounts payable decreased to 2.65 billion RMB from 3.09 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Employee benefits payable dropped significantly to 446.95 million RMB from 5.40 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Taxes payable decreased to 6.34 billion RMB from 6.95 billion RMB at the end of 2023[11] Cash Flow and Operating Activities - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was RMB 44.421 billion, a decrease of 11.16% year-on-year[3] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 44.42 billion, a decrease of 11.2% compared to RMB 50.00 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Total cash inflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 134.64 billion, up 19.6% from RMB 112.51 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Total cash outflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 90.22 billion, an increase of 44.3% compared to RMB 62.51 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Net cash flow from investing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 605.41 million, an improvement from negative RMB 8.32 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the third quarter of 2024 stood at RMB 155.19 billion, a decrease of 2.6% compared to RMB 159.34 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2023[18] - Cash dividends and profit distributions paid in the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to RMB 38.94 billion, up 12.4% from RMB 34.66 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash received from interest and commissions for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 2.18 billion, a decrease of 6.5% compared to RMB 2.33 billion in the same period of 2023[17] Equity and Shareholder Information - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 10.22% to RMB 237.709 billion[3] - Basic earnings per share for the quarter were RMB 15.23, up 13.23% year-on-year[3] - Weighted average return on equity increased by 0.32 percentage points to 8.39%[3] Dealer and Market Information - Domestic dealer count increased by 43 to 2,122, with all new dealers being series liquor dealers[6] - International dealer count remained unchanged at 106[6] Expenses and Income - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 140.40 million RMB, a 38.8% increase compared to 101.13 million RMB in the same period of 2023[14] - Sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 4.24 billion RMB, a 38.3% increase compared to 3.06 billion RMB in the same period of 2023[14] - Interest income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.35 billion RMB, a 14.6% increase compared to 2.05 billion RMB in the same period of 2023[14] - Other comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was -305,452.86 RMB, compared to 1,707,739.52 RMB in the same period of 2023[15] Main Business Income - Main business income from Maotai liquor reached RMB 101.126 billion, accounting for the majority of total revenue[5]

证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2024－029 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上 市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十二号——酒制造》 的相关规定，现将公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如 下： 一、2024 年第三季度经营情况 单位：万元 币种：人民币 | 项目 | 按产品档次 | | 按销售渠道 按地区分部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第三季度 | 茅台酒 直销 | 系列酒 | 批发 | 国内 | 国外 | | 主营业务 | 3,255,911.40 624,565.57 1,826,129.82 | | 2,054,347.15 3,752,575.85 127,901.12 | | | | 收入 | | | | | | 注：2024 年第三季度，公司通过" ...

证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2024－028 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 第四届董事会 2024 年度第十二次会议 公司董事会审计委员会事前已审议通过本议案，并同意提交公司董事 会审议。 （二）《关于审议公司 2023 年工资总额预算执行情况和 2024 年工资总 额预算方案的议案》 决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 2024 年 9 月 24 日，贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）以 直接送达或电子邮件的方式，向全体董事发出召开第四届董事会 2024 年度 第十二次会议（以下简称"会议"）的通知。2024 年 10 月 24 日，会议以通 讯表决方式召开，会议应出席董事 7 人，实际出席董事 7 人。会议的召开 符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和《公司章程》的规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 （ 一 ）《 2024 年 第 三 季 度 报 告 》（ 详 见 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 网 站 http://www.sse.com.cn） ...

贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 第四届监事会 2024 年度第四次会议 决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2024－030 一、监事会会议召开情况 2024 年 9 月 24 日，贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）以派 专人送达的方式，向全体监事发出召开第四届监事会 2024 年度第四次会议 （以下简称"会议"）的通知。2024 年 10 月 24 日，会议以通讯表决方式召 开，会议应出席监事 3 人，实际出席监事 3 人。会议的召开符合《中华人 民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和《公司章程》的规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 （ 一 ）《 2024 年 第 三 季 度 报 告 》（ 详 见 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 网 站 http://www.sse.com.cn） 同意：3 票；反对：0 票；弃权：0 票。议案获得通过。 1 李强清先生因工作调整，拟不再担任公司第四届监事会监事。会议决 定，提名郑尚勋先生为公司第四届监事会监事候选人。 本议案需 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》和贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）《章程》等规定，经 2024 年 10 月 18 日召开的公司第一届第四 次职工代表大会民主选举，韦芳女士当选为公司第四届董事会职工董事，任 期与本届董事会一致。谢钦卿女士因工作调整，不再担任公司第四届董事会 职工董事及董事会下设专门委员会相应职务。 特此公告。 证券简称:贵州茅台 证券代码:600519 编号:临 2024－027 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 关于职工董事选举结果的公告 2024 年 10 月 22 日 附件：韦芳女士简历 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司董事会 1 附件 韦芳女士简历 韦芳，女，布依族，1972 年 11 月生，贵州六枝人，1994 年 8 月参加工 作，2004 年 4 月加入中国共产党，大学学历，经济师。主要工作经历：2012 年 4 月至 2017 年 6 月，先后担任中国贵州茅台酒厂（集团）有限责任公司 人力资源社保处培训办公室副主任、职称办公室主任、工会主席（兼），贵 州茅台 ...

Key Points **Industry or Company Involved**: - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS), the largest and most premium China spirit player **Core Views and Arguments**: 1. **Sustainable Growth and Resilience**: Kweichow Moutai's iconic brand value, sustained pricing power, and unique brand cachet position it to navigate through cycles and solidify its market share. 2. **Scarcity of Resources**: Moutai's unique flavor and production process, with a long fermentation and blending cycle, contribute to its scarcity and premium pricing. 3. **Premium Pricing and Brand Power**: Moutai's brand power drives premium pricing and strong channel profitability, with Feitian Moutai's wholesale price significantly higher than its ex-factory price. 4. **Financial Performance**: Moutai has demonstrated superior financial performance, with above-industry margins and a strong return on capital. 5. **Blue Sky Outlook**: Moutai is expected to double its overall value share in the China spirits industry to 45% by 2035E, driven by high-end spirits demand and sauce-flavor spirits popularity. **Other Important Points**: 1. **Bear Case**: Assuming no volume growth, Moutai's valuation suggests a downside risk of 17%. 2. **Base Case**: Assuming stable volume and ASP growth, Moutai's valuation suggests a 17% upside. 3. **Blue Sky Scenario**: Assuming upside in the 2030-35E outlook, Moutai's valuation suggests a 41% upside. 4. **Regulatory Risks**: Consumption tax reform could impact Moutai's profitability and valuation. 5. **Environmental Pollution**: Pollution of the Chishui River and surrounding area could negatively impact Moutai's product quality and brand power. 6. **Capacity Constraints**: Moutai's capacity additions are crucial for long-term growth. 7. **Channel Reshuffle**: Increasing supply of Feitian Moutai and additional discounts on e-commerce platforms could disrupt traditional distribution channels. **Key Financial Metrics**: - Revenue CAGR: 9.5% over 2023-35E - Net Profit Margin: 55% by 2035E - Net Cash: Over 100% of total equity by 2035E - Dividend Payout: 75% in 2024-26E - Free Cash Flow Yield: 11.2% by 2035E **Valuation**: - Target Price: Rmb2,051 - DCF-based Implied Valuation: Rmb2,461 - Dividend Discount Model: Implies a share value of Rmb1,634 **Conclusion**: Kweichow Moutai is a resilient and well-positioned company with strong growth prospects. Its unique brand value, premium pricing, and superior financial performance make it an attractive investment opportunity. However, investors should be aware of potential risks, including regulatory changes, environmental pollution, and capacity constraints.

| 6 | 中国工商银行股份有限公司－华泰柏瑞沪深 | 10,927,788 | 0.87 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 300 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | | | | 7 | 中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司 | 10,397,104 | 0.83 | | 8 | 中国证券金融股份有限公司 | 8,039,447 | 0.64 | | 9 | 中国建设银行股份有限公司－易方达沪深 300 | 7,570,590 | 0.60 | | | 交易型开放式指数发起式证券投资基金 | | | | 10 | 中国人寿保险股份有限公司－传统－普通保险 | 5,451,711 | 0.43 | | | 产品－005L－CT001 沪 | | | 二、公司前十大无限售条件股东持股情况 公司前十大无限售条件股东持股情况与公司前十大股东持股情况一 致。 证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2024－026 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司关于回购股份事项 前十大股东及前十大无限售条件股东持股情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏， ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 白酒Ⅱ | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 贵州茅台 (600519) | 报告日期： 2024 年 09 月 24 日 | 投资要点 事件：9 月 21 日，贵州茅台发布《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案 的公告》。 首次实施注销式回购，增强投资信心 为维护公司及广大投资者的利益，增强投资信心，在保证公司正常经营和长期发 展不受影响的前提下，根据中国证监会、上海证券交易所等相关规定，公司拟以 自有资金实施股份回购计划，回购股份将用于注销并减少公司注册资本。具体而 言： 1）回购股份金额：不低于人民币 30 亿元（含）且不超过人民币 60 亿元（含）， 具体回购资金总额以回购方案实施完毕或回购期限届满时实际回购股份使用的资 金总额为准。2）回购股份资金来源：公司自有资金。 3）回购股份用途：本次 回购股份将用于注销并减少公司注册资本。4）回购股份价格：不超过 1795.78 元/股（含）（不高于公司董事会通过回购股份决议前 30 个交易 ...