行 业 周 报 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/08/15-2025/08/28） 业绩表现分化，关注白酒旺季动销反馈 投资要点： ◼ 风险提示：原材料价格波动、产品提价不及预期、渠道开展不及预期、 行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险、宏观经济波动风险等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年8月15日-2025年8月28日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨3.04%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十一位，跑输同期沪深300 指数约3.92个百分点。细分板块中，多数细分板块跑输沪深300指数。其 中，其他酒类板块上涨7.50%，板块涨幅最大；肉制品板块跌幅最大，为 -0.73%。 ◼ 行业周观点：业绩表现分化，关注白酒旺季动销反馈。白酒板块：从白 酒目前公布的业绩来看，内部表现分化。其中，贵州茅台上半年业绩稳 健增长，彰显品牌韧性。水井坊、洋河股份、今世缘等业绩同比均出现 不同程度下滑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed positive performance in August, with significant gains across major indices, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment and market dynamics [3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to close at 3857.93 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99% to 12696.15 points. The ChiNext Index saw a notable rise of 2.23% [3][4]. - For the month, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulated a gain of 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 24.13% [5]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as batteries, liquor, insurance, precious metals, and military equipment experienced significant gains, while sectors like semiconductors, education, computing leasing, and communication equipment faced declines [9]. - The lithium battery sector saw substantial growth, with companies like Xian Dai Intelligent and Jie Bang Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% [9]. Notable Stocks - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock price rise above 300 yuan, peaking at 316.66 yuan [10]. - Industrial Fulian's market capitalization exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with the stock closing at a daily limit increase [12]. - Cambricon Technologies surpassed Kweichow Moutai in stock price, becoming the new "king" of A-shares [13]. Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of capital into sectors such as power equipment, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles, while sectors like electronics, computers, communications, and real estate saw net outflows [14][15]. Institutional Insights - Guojin Securities noted a market rotation, highlighting the explosive movement of large-cap tech companies and suggesting a focus on buying opportunities in strong sectors during pullbacks [17]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) identified multiple factors supporting the current rebound in the Chinese stock market, including accelerated technological advancements and improved market sentiment regarding the long-term economic outlook [17].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a recovery phase, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on high-quality brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye as potential investment opportunities [2][3][7]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 2.71%, mirroring the increase in the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index during the week of August 25-29, 2025 [1]. Institutional Insights - Dongxing Securities suggests that liquor stocks are at the bottom of their asset pricing cycle, indicating a potential recovery despite a weak overall consumption rebound [2]. - Aijian Securities highlights that with easing policy pressures and consumption promotion measures, there is potential for a weak recovery in liquor demand, recommending investment in leading companies with stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [3]. Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasizes the need for comprehensive food safety oversight, focusing on risk management and the integration of technology in regulatory practices [4]. Consumption Data - Hangzhou's retail sales reached 527.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, driven by consumption policies and a shift towards green and smart consumption [5]. - Shanghai's retail sales totaled 129.14 billion yuan in July 2025, reflecting a 7.8% year-on-year increase, with strong performance in clothing, high-quality food, and communication devices [6]. Industry News - The A-share liquor sector is still in a cyclical downturn, with total revenue of 176.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 74.14 billion yuan for 13 listed companies, both showing slight declines year-on-year [7]. - The average gross margin for the industry has decreased to 64.61%, with inventory levels rising by 11.55% [7]. Company Performance - Wuliangye reported a net profit of 19.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 2.28%, with total revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, up 4.19% [10]. - Laobaigan achieved a net profit of 321 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, with total revenue of 2.481 billion yuan [11]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue reached 23.964 billion yuan, a 5.35% increase, with a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% [12]. Industry Developments - Five liquor companies have been recognized as 5G factories, indicating advancements in technology within the industry [9].

创业板指累计涨24.13%，北证50指数累涨10.64%。 A股8月收官，截至收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深证成指涨0.99%，创业板指涨2.23%。 | 全A | 涨 1997 | 平 121 | 跌 3305 | A股时 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 1 | 000001 上证指数 | 3857.93 c | 14.33 | 0.37% | | 2 | 399001 深证成指 | 12696.15c 124.78 | | 0.99% | | 3 | 899050 北证50 | 1574.25 c | 19.82 1.28% | | | ব | 881001 万得全A | 6175.74c | 22.75 | 0.37% | | 5 | 000688 ध्यास प्रति | 1341.31 с | -23.29 | -1.71% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2890.13c | 62.95 | 2.23% | | 1 | 000300 沪深300 | 4496.76c | 32.98 | ...

Group 1 - The stock of Cambrian (寒武纪) fell over 8% to 1450.26, while Guizhou Moutai (贵州茅台) rose over 1% to 1473.20, allowing Moutai to reclaim the title of the stock king [1] - Guizhou Moutai's stock performance indicates a strong market position, surpassing Cambrian in market capitalization [1]

（文章来源：上海证券报） | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年8月29日 | (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1830 | 1820 I | | ② 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1810 | 1795 I | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1870 | 1870 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1840 | 1840 | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1940 | 1940 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1890 | 1890 | | 2 五星70周年纪念 | 53度/500ml | 11500 | 11500 | 据酒业数据平台"今日酒价"8月29日最新数据显示，25年飞天（散）53度/500ml批发价为1795元/瓶，较昨日下跌15元；25年飞 天（原）53度/500ml价格报1820元/瓶，较昨日下跌10元，已逼近1800元关键价位。 值得注意的是，这是 ...

2025.08. 29 8月29日，寒武纪开盘股价大幅回调，而贵州茅台股价开盘上拉。在9点32分，寒武纪股价跌至 1457元，低于当时贵州茅台的股价1464.12元。不过之后，寒武纪迅速回升，股价再度超过贵州茅 台。 本文字数：3472，阅读时长大约5分钟 寒武纪再度"称王"，预测全年营收超50亿元 在当晚，寒武纪发布公告称，股价涨幅超过大部分同行业公司股价涨幅，存在脱离当前基本面的风 险，预计2025年全年实现营业收入50亿元至70亿元区间。 寒武纪能在A股第一宝座上坐多久，目前不得而知，不过，曾经超越贵州茅台的股票都是短暂风光， 维持时间最短不到一天、最长则一年左右，之后都呈现跌势，无力竞争或者颓势尽显。 作者 | 第一财 经 黄思瑜 在业内看来，贵州茅台"股王"之位稳固，与业绩长期增长有关，而其他股票多数因缺乏持续业绩支 撑或市场情绪退潮而大幅回落，寒武纪的基本面能否持续支撑股价还有待观察。 类似的情况在8月28日早盘更为明显，寒武纪与贵州茅台之间的"股王"争夺赛达到高潮。当日，寒 武纪和贵州茅台分别以1420元、1447.97元的价格开盘。在9点35分，寒武纪的股价超过贵州茅 台，但随着贵州茅台迅速V ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "king of A-shares" between Hanwha and Kweichow Moutai is intense, with Hanwha briefly surpassing Moutai's stock price, but concerns about sustainability remain [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On August 28, Hanwha's stock price rose by 15.73%, closing at 1587.91 yuan, while Kweichow Moutai's stock price slightly decreased by 0.13%, closing at 1446.10 yuan [1] - Hanwha's stock price fluctuated, at one point falling below Kweichow Moutai's before regaining the lead [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Hanwha announced an expected revenue range of 5 billion to 7 billion yuan for the year 2025 [1] - The sustainability of Hanwha's position as the top stock in A-shares is uncertain, as previous stocks that surpassed Kweichow Moutai typically experienced short-lived success [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that Kweichow Moutai's stronghold on the "king" title is due to its long-term performance growth, while other stocks often lack the necessary ongoing performance support [1] - The market sentiment towards Hanwha's stock may decline if its fundamental performance does not support its current valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with a notable rise in the index by over 13% since August, driven by investor interest amid low valuations and recent institutional buying activity [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 29, several white liquor stocks have shown strong performance, with Jinhuijiu rising over 6%, and others like Shede Liquor and Gujing Gongjiu increasing by over 4% [1][2]. - The white liquor index has increased by more than 13% since the beginning of August [1]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - Central Huijin has increased its holdings in white liquor ETFs, acquiring 121 million shares, bringing its total to 581 million shares, making it the third-largest holder [4][5]. - This move is seen as a long-term strategy to stabilize the market, particularly in the context of the white liquor sector's recent downturn [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Many white liquor companies have reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with companies like Kuaijiu and Shede Liquor experiencing double-digit drops [7][9]. - In contrast, leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have reported growth, with Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, up 9.16% year-on-year [10][11]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is facing challenges, with a reported 5.8% decline in production for the first half of 2025 and increasing inventory issues among distributors [12]. - The average inventory turnover days have reached 900 days, indicating potential overstocking and pricing issues [12]. - Analysts suggest that the industry may be approaching a cyclical bottom, with expectations for a recovery in performance by mid-2026 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "king of stocks" between Cambrian (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has intensified, with Cambrian briefly surpassing Moutai's stock price, but concerns about its sustainability remain due to high valuations and potential risks to its fundamentals [1][3][12]. Stock Performance - On August 28, Cambrian's stock price rose by 15.73% to 1587.91 yuan, while Kweichow Moutai's price fell by 0.13% to 1446.10 yuan, resulting in a price difference of 141.81 yuan at the close [1][3]. - Cambrian's stock price fluctuated significantly during trading, initially dropping below Moutai's price before recovering and ultimately taking the lead [2][3]. Financial Projections - Cambrian has projected its revenue for the year 2025 to be between 5 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company reported a substantial increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4347.82%, and achieved a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [12]. Valuation Metrics - Cambrian's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 5117.75, and its price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 113.98, both significantly higher than the industry averages of 88.97 for P/E and 5.95 for P/B [3]. Market Context - Historically, stocks that have briefly surpassed Kweichow Moutai have often seen their prices decline shortly thereafter, with the duration of their reign as "king" typically lasting less than a day to a maximum of one year [5][9]. - Kweichow Moutai has maintained its position due to consistent long-term performance and strong brand strength, having achieved cumulative net profits of 577.277 billion yuan since its listing [9].