【导读】记者实探假期黄金市场，人头攒动，"以旧换新"成为风尚 中国基金报记者 吴君 近期，国际金价持续上涨，突破了4000美元/盎司。这个国庆中秋假期，黄金牵动着不少消费者的心。 10月8日是假期最后一天，记者来到了上海豫园的黄金市场，实地走访了老凤祥、周大福、老庙黄金、老铺黄金、六福珠宝、潮宏基、亚一等多家品牌金 店，还有上海紫锦城的黄金批发市场，看到现场顾客络绎不绝，假期消费市场在"金价上涨"与"促销活动"的双重节奏中持续活跃。 有顾客豪掷几万元买古法金饰佩戴，紧跟时尚；也有顾客说要理性消费，先看看，以后再买；还有不少顾客选择"以旧换新"，补差价换新金，对黄金长期 看好；黄金批发市场则以低价吸引了不少顾客"淘金"。 多家金店店员表示，这个假期他们接待顾客的量很大。有金店老板说："现在黄金市场是'慢牛'行情。" 金店假期大力度促销、门店火爆 10月8日，记者来到了上海豫园的黄金市场，多家品牌金店人头攒动，十分热闹。尽管最近金价节节攀升，但丝毫没有阻挡顾客逛金店、选购黄金的热 情。 为了吸引顾客，老凤祥、老庙、周大福、六福珠宝、中国黄金、亚一等多家品牌金店都推出了不同力度的"双节同庆"限时克减优惠，以及一口价 ...

Core Insights - The jewelry retail industry is experiencing a paradox where high customer demand coincides with significant revenue declines for major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, attributed to soaring gold prices [1][3][19] Group 1: Industry Performance - Chow Sang Sang reported a staggering 43.92% drop in revenue for the first half of the year, while Lao Feng Xiang saw a decline of 16.52%, despite international gold prices reaching $3,900 and domestic prices hitting 1,134 RMB per gram [1][3] - The gross profit margin for jewelry brands has been declining for three consecutive years, with Chow Sang Sang's margin falling from 29.3% to 23.1%, indicating reduced profitability per item sold [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Retailers face a dilemma of high procurement costs due to rising gold prices, leading to potential losses if prices drop before they can sell their inventory [5][6] - The competitive landscape is intense, with many stores engaging in aggressive promotions, leading to unsustainable pricing strategies and reduced profit margins [13][15] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly savvy, often checking gold prices before making purchases, which puts pressure on retailers to maintain competitive pricing [11] - Some consumers have successfully capitalized on price fluctuations, with reports of individuals making significant profits by timing their purchases and sales of gold [8][19] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Some retailers are adapting by focusing on unique selling propositions, such as emphasizing cultural significance and craftsmanship, which can enhance perceived value and improve profit margins [17] - The industry is facing a critical juncture, where traditional business models may need to evolve to survive in a volatile market characterized by rapid price changes and shifting consumer expectations [19]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold reaching a historic high of $3980 per ounce and New York gold futures surpassing $4000, both up over 50% year-to-date [1][8] - Domestic gold jewelry prices are also hitting record highs, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing prices exceed 1150 RMB per gram [3][4] - The increase in gold prices has not dampened consumer enthusiasm; instead, it has led to a surge in demand, particularly during the recent holiday period [5][6] Group 2 - High foot traffic was reported in major shopping districts, with consumers showing strong purchasing power, spending from thousands to tens of thousands of RMB on gold jewelry [5][6] - The market for traditional wedding gold items remains strong, with new trends emerging such as 5D gold crafts gaining popularity among younger consumers [6][7] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, citing increased demand from central banks and individual investors as key drivers [7][8]

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached an all-time high of $3,822 per ounce, marking a significant increase of $62 in a single day [1] - The rise in gold prices indicates a shift towards de-dollarization among countries, making gold more appealing to overseas buyers [2] Industry Overview - The surge in gold prices has led to a downturn in the domestic gold retail market, with many gold shops closing down and some businesses disappearing with their inventory [4][9] - The trend of gold shop closures has been ongoing, with companies like Chow Tai Fook planning to relocate their factories due to declining sales in gold jewelry [5] - Chow Tai Fook's sales from gold jewelry accounted for only 12.4% of total sales in Q1 2024, a significant drop from 30% in 2021, leading to a reduction in store numbers [7][9] Market Dynamics - Despite the high prices, consumer demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with many potential buyers deterred by soaring costs [9] - The global demand for gold remains strong, driven by industrial use, central bank purchases, and technological applications, which have all reached record highs [10][12] - In Q1 2024, global industrial gold demand reached 128 tons, with over 85% of new demand coming from the renewable energy and electronics sectors [12] Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves as part of a strategy to de-dollarize their economies, with China being the largest buyer, having purchased gold for 18 consecutive months [14][16] - The trend of central banks accumulating gold is influencing market prices, as their actions significantly impact gold's long-term stability [16] Consumer Behavior - The current market conditions present a dichotomy where gold prices are rising while retail sales are declining, creating challenges for gold shop owners [16] - Consumers are advised to recognize gold's core attributes, including its financial, physical, and hedging properties, when making purchasing decisions [17][21] - For potential buyers, it is recommended to focus on practical and cost-effective gold options, as many gold jewelry pieces carry significant brand premiums [21]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with spot gold reaching a historic high of $3980 per ounce and New York gold futures surpassing $4000, both up over 50% year-to-date [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices are also hitting record highs, with mainstream brands seeing prices for 24K gold jewelry exceeding 1100 yuan per gram, including brands like Chow Tai Fook at 1155 yuan and Chow Sang Sang at 1157 yuan [3][4]. - The increase in gold prices has not dampened consumer enthusiasm; instead, it has led to a surge in demand, particularly during the recent holiday period [6][7]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are purchasing gold jewelry despite high prices, with some spending as much as 160,000 yuan on gold items, indicating strong buying power [6][7]. - Retailers are experiencing increased foot traffic, with some stores reporting a doubling of customer visits during the holiday season compared to previous months [7][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rapid rise in gold prices to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and a looming U.S. government shutdown, which have all heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7][9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300, anticipating continued strong demand from central banks and individual investors [8][9].

Core Insights - International gold prices reached a historic high of $4000.1 per ounce on October 7, driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [1][3] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce from a previous estimate of $4300, anticipating significant net purchases of gold by central banks in emerging markets [3] Group 1: Market Trends - On October 7, gold prices in the domestic market also increased, with major retailers reporting prices for gold jewelry: Chow Sang Sang at 1157 yuan per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1155 yuan per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1151 yuan per gram [1] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - It is projected that central banks will have average net purchases of 80 tons and 70 tons of gold in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as they seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves [3]

Group 1 - The rising gold prices have led consumers to seek alternatives, such as purchasing gold bars from banks instead of jewelry stores, resulting in significant savings [1][3] - Major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are closing stores, with Chow Tai Fook shutting down 397 stores last year and experiencing an 18% drop in revenue [3][5] - The trend of buying gold jewelry is declining, with wedding ceremonies seeing a 50% reduction in participants over the past decade, leading to innovative purchasing methods like renting or buying imitation gold [5][6] Group 2 - Some brands are attempting to attract younger consumers through collaborations and online sales strategies, such as live streaming and exclusive collections [6][8] - Despite the overall decline in traditional gold jewelry sales, niche markets like Lao Pu Gold, which focuses on artisanal gold, have seen a revenue increase of 148% [5] - The perception of gold as a more practical investment compared to jewelry is growing, with consumers preferring gold bars for their stability and lower costs [8]

Core Insights - Gold futures in New York have historically surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, marking an increase of over 50% year-to-date [1] - Spot gold reached a peak of $3977.45 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] Price Impact on Domestic Gold Jewelry - The price of 999 pure gold jewelry from Caibai has risen to 1105 RMB per gram [1] - Chow Tai Fook's 999 pure gold jewelry (including ornaments and crafts) is priced at 1155 RMB per gram [1] - Chow Sang Sang's 999 pure gold jewelry is now priced at 1157 RMB per gram [1] - Laomiao's 999 pure gold jewelry is priced at 1151 RMB per gram [1]

Core Insights - Lao Feng Xiang, a century-old Chinese jewelry brand, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Maybach Luxury Goods Asia Pacific Ltd in Shanghai, marking a significant milestone in its brand development and market expansion efforts [1][3] - Lao Feng Xiang has been included in the "Apparel 50 2025" list published by Brand Finance, ranking 38th, which reflects a rise of five positions from the previous year [6][8] - The partnership aims to enhance brand promotion, expand into the Asia-Pacific market, and improve global positioning, showcasing a commitment to integrating Eastern and Western craftsmanship [3][6] Brand Value Rankings - Chanel has surpassed Louis Vuitton to become the most valuable apparel brand globally, according to the latest Brand Finance report [4][5] - Other notable brands in the top rankings include Nike, Hermès, and Rolex, with Lao Feng Xiang being the only mainland Chinese jewelry brand on the list [5][6] - The inclusion of Chinese brands like Anta, Bosideng, and Chow Tai Fook in the rankings highlights the transformation and cultural confidence within China's manufacturing sector [8]

Core Insights - The global gold market on October 4, 2025, exhibited a diverse pricing system with significant differences between domestic and international gold prices, as well as varying retail strategies among different gold brands [1] Group 1: Global and Local Pricing - The international gold price closed at $3868.9 per ounce, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's base price was set at 875.0 RMB per gram [2] - In Hong Kong, gold was traded at 42810 HKD per tael, and the gold recycling price was 860 RMB per gram, indicating strong demand for physical gold [2] Group 2: Retail Pricing Strategies - Domestic gold retail prices showed a clear gradient, ranging from 918 RMB to 1137 RMB per gram, with traditional brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang priced at 1129 RMB per gram, reflecting brand premium and craftsmanship [3] - Other notable prices included Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao at 1125 RMB per gram, while local brands like Cai Bai Jewelry and Zhou Li Fu were priced at 1078 RMB and 1084 RMB per gram respectively [4] Group 3: Investment Channels - Shui Bei Gold offered competitive prices at 886 RMB per gram, and investment gold bars were priced at 889 RMB per gram, showcasing its advantages in the investment sector [5] Group 4: Panda Gold Coins - The 2025 edition of the Panda Gold Coin set, issued by the People's Bank of China, is priced at 52794 RMB for the complete set, with individual coins ranging from 1185 RMB for 1 gram to 480000 RMB for 1 kilogram, catering to various investor needs [6] - Unique designs such as the 150-gram square gold coin and colored gold coin are priced at 90000 RMB and 88000 RMB respectively, attracting collectors [6] Group 5: Virtual Trading Options - Major banks offer paper gold, silver, platinum, and palladium trading services, with slight declines in prices across various metals, including a drop of 0.10% to 0.19% for paper gold in USD per ounce [9][10] Group 6: Popop Gold Series - The Popop gold series, under the brand Pop Mart, features a unique IP-driven retail model with prices ranging from 980 RMB to 68000 RMB, targeting the parent-child market [11] - The pricing strategy shows a significant premium, with the "Baby Molly series" gold items priced at 1385 RMB per gram, which is approximately 25% higher than traditional brands [11] - Experts suggest that while the "one-price" model may risk losing some consumers, Popop's market potential remains promising, pending broader acceptance of the IP gold innovation [11]