Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Buy" [1][6][16] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with expectations, achieving a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 16.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, with a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [6] - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 60.4% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2025 [6] - Future profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 13.45 billion yuan, 14.68 billion yuan, and 15.91 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.3% respectively [6] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from high-end and low-end liquor segments in 2024 was 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 9.4% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories was 16.21 billion yuan and 270 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a decline of 15.5% respectively [7] - The company is expected to see further growth in mid-tier products, with a significant focus on controlling the production of lower-tier products [7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts for 2024 amounted to 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while Q1 2025 saw receipts of 13.79 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year due to the timing of the Spring Festival [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.8 billion yuan, indicating a historically high level of recognition and positive cash flow from channels [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 1.34 percentage points to 78.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 40.28% due to increased sales expenses [9] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with expected values of 27.6%, 24.2%, and 21.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 36.01 billion with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in 2024. The company is entering the second phase of its revitalization plan for Fenjiu in 2025, aiming for steady long-term development [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion (up 12.8% YoY) and a net profit of 12.24 billion (up 17.3% YoY). In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.65 billion (down 10.2% YoY) and net profit was 0.89 billion (down 11.3% YoY). For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion (up 7.7% YoY) and net profit was 6.65 billion (up 6.2% YoY), aligning with previous expectations [1][4]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products, with revenue from these segments reaching 26.53 billion and 9.34 billion respectively in 2024, showing growth of 14.4% and 9.4% YoY. The company anticipates that its mid-tier product, Laobai Fen, will be a significant growth driver in the second phase of its strategy [2]. - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets in 2024 was 13.50 billion and 22.37 billion respectively, with growth rates of 11.7% and 13.8% YoY. The non-provincial revenue share increased by 0.4 percentage points YoY, indicating ongoing optimization of its national layout [2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 improved by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2%, driven by strong performance in the Qinghua and mid-tier products. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin further increased by 1.3 percentage points to 78.8% [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 rose by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.2% due to increased sales and management expenses [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company successfully completed the first phase of its revitalization plan and is progressing steadily into the second phase. However, external demand recovery is expected to take time, leading to a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% respectively. The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 11.15 and 12.60 respectively [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 256.45, based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's potential for national expansion [4].

编者按 A股市场2024年年报和2025年一季报业绩披露已收官。正逢"五一"长假，证券时报记者精选了几大行业，对相关行业业绩和亮点进行了梳理，以飨读 者。 随着白酒上市公司年报及一季报披露，白酒行业在深度调整期的发展脉络逐渐清晰。 证券时报记者根据Wind数据统计，2024年A股白酒上市公司实现营业总收入4422.27亿元，同比增长2.28%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1666.31亿元，同 比增长4.32%。 整体来看，白酒行业仍呈现出明显分化局面，头部企业凭借品牌、渠道优势实现逆势增长，而部分区域酒企则面临库存与动销压力，业绩下滑比较明显。 龙头酒企业绩保持稳定增长 在存量竞争背景下，头部酒企通过品牌、渠道和创新巩固优势，业绩保持稳定增长。 从营业总收入来看，贵州茅台以1741.44亿元的营业总收入，排名第一；五粮液的营业总收入为891.75亿元，排名第二；山西汾酒、泸州老窖2024年的营业总 收入超过300亿元；洋河股份、古井贡酒2024年的营业总收入超过200亿元。 从营业总收入同比增长幅度来看，贵州茅台、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘等多家酒企2024年营业总收入增速不低于10%，而*ST岩石、酒鬼酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong start with a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [6]. - The company is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 39.3 billion yuan in 2025, 43.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.9 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Financial Performance Forecast - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 36,010.99 million yuan - 2025E: 39,328.45 million yuan - 2026E: 43,202.18 million yuan - 2027E: 46,878.90 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.79% for 2024, 9.21% for 2025, 9.85% for 2026, and 8.51% for 2027 [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 12,242.88 million yuan - 2025E: 13,104.64 million yuan - 2026E: 14,532.14 million yuan - 2027E: 15,822.83 million yuan - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 17.29% for 2024, 7.04% for 2025, 10.89% for 2026, and 8.88% for 2027 [2][8]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross margin is projected to improve from 76.20% in 2024 to 78.06% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][8]. - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from 10.04 yuan in 2024 to 12.97 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in the industry by revenue size in 2024, with a strong performance in both domestic and international markets [6]. - The product mix is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on mid-to-high-end liquor products, which are projected to drive growth [6]. - The company is also anticipated to enhance its national presence, particularly in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6].

Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, with a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, an increase of 6.15% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories generated revenues of 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.4% [1] - The gross margins for mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor were 84.45% and 53.15%, showing increases of 0.36 and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Total liquor sales volume reached 220,600 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [1] Market Expansion - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 13.5 billion yuan from the domestic market and 22.374 billion yuan from the external market, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [2] - The proportion of revenue from external markets increased to 62.37%, indicating a continued optimization of market layout [2] - The total number of distributors reached 4,553 in 2024, an increase of 613 from 2023, with a significant number of new distributors in external markets [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 76.2% and 34% respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9 and 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.172 billion yuan, up 68.47% year-on-year [4] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 36.00 yuan per 10 shares, with a total payout of 7.393 billion yuan, representing 60.39% of net profit attributable to shareholders [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenues of 39.559 billion yuan, 44.466 billion yuan, and 50.905 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 13.407 billion yuan, 15.076 billion yuan, and 17.470 billion yuan respectively [4]

Group 1 - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 36.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 4.39 billion yuan based on the total share capital of 1,219,964,222 shares as of December 31, 2024 [21][22][19] - The company reported a net profit of approximately 10.57 billion yuan for the year 2024, with an ending retained earnings balance of approximately 25.12 billion yuan after dividend distribution [21][22] - The company will not issue bonus shares or increase capital reserves for the year 2024 [22] Group 2 - The company operates in the production and sales of various types of liquor, including Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun liquor, and is recognized as a key player in the Chinese liquor industry [2][3] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain management system, ensuring the procurement of high-quality raw materials from over 1.4 million acres of planting bases [3][4] - The company employs an integrated marketing model, combining direct sales, e-commerce, and partnerships with regional distributors to enhance its market presence [4] Group 3 - The company has undergone a change in accounting policies in accordance with new regulations issued by the Ministry of Finance, effective from January 1, 2024, which will not significantly impact its financial status [35][36][39] - The company’s first-quarter report for 2025 indicates ongoing operational stability, with detailed financial data to be disclosed [40][56] - The company’s internal control systems have been evaluated and deemed effective, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu aims to stabilize growth and enhance product structure through strategic adjustments and market segmentation, focusing on maintaining a reasonable growth target rather than merely increasing sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 12.79% to 36.011 billion yuan and a net profit rise of 17.29% to 12.243 billion yuan [2]. - Revenue from high-end liquor (priced at 130 yuan per liter and above) grew by 14.35% to 26.532 billion yuan, while revenue from other liquor categories (priced below 130 yuan) increased by 9.40% to 9.342 billion yuan [2]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on the "青花" (Qinghua) series, with plans to complete the replacement of old and new products by the end of Q2 2024, aiming for a seamless transition in the market [3][4]. - The resource allocation strategy for the "四轮驱动" (Four-Wheel Drive) approach distributes resources among different product lines, with a focus on increasing the market presence of "老白汾" (Old Bai Fen) and "青花26" (Qinghua 26) [4][5]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its dealer network, with the number of provincial dealers increasing from 642 in 2019 to 835 in 2024, and the number of provincial dealers rising from 1,847 to 3,718 in the same period [7]. - The revenue from provincial markets increased by 11.72% to 13.5 billion yuan, while revenue from non-provincial markets grew by 13.81% to 22.374 billion yuan [6][7]. Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a new marketing strategy that includes performance incentives based on both shipment volume and bottle opening rates, alongside targeted consumer promotions [8][9]. - The company is focusing on digital marketing and precise expense management to enhance operational efficiency and market penetration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong start with a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [6]. - The company is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of 39.3 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 9.21% [2][8]. Financial Performance Forecast - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 36,010.99 million yuan - 2025E: 39,328.45 million yuan - 2026E: 43,202.18 million yuan - 2027E: 46,878.90 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.79%, 9.21%, 9.85%, and 8.51% respectively [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 12,242.88 million yuan - 2025E: 13,104.64 million yuan - 2026E: 14,532.14 million yuan - 2027E: 15,822.83 million yuan - Net profit growth rates are projected at 17.29%, 7.04%, 10.89%, and 8.88% respectively [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.04 yuan - 2025E: 10.74 yuan - 2026E: 11.91 yuan - 2027E: 12.97 yuan [2][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 20.34, 19.00, 17.13, and 15.74 for the years 2024A to 2027E respectively [2][8]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is robust, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales reaching 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The company is experiencing a trend of upgrading product structures, particularly in domestic markets, with a revenue of 13.5 billion yuan from domestic sales, up 11.7% [6]. - The company is also expanding its presence in external markets, with a revenue of 22.4 billion yuan from outside the province, reflecting a growth of 13.8% [6]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.4 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 60.4%, which is an increase of 9.3 percentage points from the previous year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved significant growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 36.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29%, solidifying its position among the top three in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Resilience - In 2024, despite being in an industry adjustment cycle, the company optimized its product and market structure, resulting in double-digit growth in revenue and net profit [3]. - High-end liquor sales contributed significantly, with revenue from mid-to-high-end products reaching 26.532 billion yuan, a 14.35% increase, accounting for 73.68% of total revenue [3]. - The Qinghua Fen series remains a strategic focus, with the launch of "Qinghua Fenjiu 26·Revival" aimed at expanding market reach [3]. Group 2: Market Expansion - Revenue from markets outside Shanxi reached 22.374 billion yuan, growing by 13.81% [4]. - The number of external distributors increased to 3,718, adding 598 new distributors during the reporting period, supporting the company's national expansion strategy [4]. Group 3: Brand Empowerment - The company emphasizes cultural integration as a key advantage, launching various cultural initiatives and collaborations to engage with consumers [5]. - The "Youngization 1.0 Strategy" will be fully implemented by 2025, aiming to attract younger demographics and reshape the narrative of Chinese liquor [5]. Group 4: Sustainable Development - The company plans to maintain steady revenue growth and integrate ESG principles into its revival strategy, focusing on green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [7]. - The release of the 2024 ESG report highlights the commitment to environmental, social, and governance responsibilities as part of the company's growth strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [5][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.60 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 7.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 60.4% of the net profit [5][10] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 14% increase year-on-year [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Revenue: 36 billion yuan, up 12.8% YoY - Net Profit: 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% YoY - Gross Margin: 76.2% [5][8][12] - **2025 Projections**: - Expected Revenue: 39.6 billion yuan, up 10.1% YoY - Expected Net Profit: 13.3 billion yuan, up 9.0% YoY [8][12] - **Key Ratios**: - ROE for 2024 is projected at 35.2% - P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 20.2 [12][14] Market and Product Insights - The company reported stable growth in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue reaching 13.5 billion yuan and international revenue at 22.4 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10] - The sales channels showed resilience, with direct sales and e-commerce growing by 20% and 26% respectively in 2024 [9][10] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 7.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 9.3 percentage point increase in the payout ratio compared to the previous year [5][10]