4月29日晚间，我国清香型白酒龙头——山西汾酒（600809）对外披露了2024年财报。公告显 示，报告期内，公司实现营业收入360.11亿元，同比增幅达12.79%；归母净利润为122.43亿元， 较去年同期增长17.29%，两大关键运营指标均保持两位数高增，显著跑赢白酒上市公司平均行业增 速，印证清香型品类扩容红利。 值得一提的是，同日，山西汾酒还披露了2025年一季报。截至今年3月，公司营业收入和归母净利 润分别录得165.23亿元和66.48亿元，同比分别增长7.72%和6.15%，显示出其盈利韧性超预期。 对此，有资深业内人士分析表示，自2017年启动国企改革三年行动以来，山西汾酒通过产品矩阵优 化、引入华润战略投资者、实施激励政策等举措，为全国化扩张储备了战略势能，配套产能扩张与全 链条数智化转型等，最终在白酒深度调整周期中，以汾酒速度实现"三分天下有其一"的战略突破， 重构行业格局。 未来，白酒行业仍存在结构性机会，次高端价格带品牌竞争格局仍然较为分散，全国性品牌和强势区 域品牌具备各自的竞争优势。其中，汾酒的青花系列品牌，在汾酒的品牌势能和清香型的香型差异化 上具备独特的优势，其通过品牌矩阵突 ...

白酒深度调整期，山西汾酒延续了"汾酒速度"，交出了一份逆势上扬的成绩单。 4月3 0日，山西汾酒披露2 0 2 4年年度报告和2 0 2 5年一季度报。财报显示，2 0 2 4年全年汾酒实 现 营 业 收 入 3 6 0 . 11 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2 . 7 9% ， 稳 居 行 业 前 三 ； 归 属 于 上 市 公 司 股 东 的 净 利 润 1 2 2 . 4 3亿元，同比增长1 7 . 2 9%。 2 0 2 5年一季度也表现不俗，营业收入1 6 5 . 2 2亿元，同比增长7 . 7 2%，净利润6 6 . 4 8亿元，同比 增长6 . 1 5%。 2 0 2 4年的白酒行业，饱受"产能过剩" "价格倒挂" "库存高压"的压力。当多数酒企承受阵痛之 时，山西汾酒营收与净利润双增长的成绩，颇为不易。 穿越周期的韧性背后，是汾酒通过产品结构、市场等维度的坚实筑基，实现高端化及全国化 布局的进一步突围。随着清香型白酒不断攀高，市场持续扩容，在汾酒的带领下，清香大时 代已全面开启。 高端产品成功卡位 玻汾稳固"霸主地位" 在市场持续消化能力不足，营销刺激效果减弱，渠道库存压力增大，产品动销频 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY, while the current price is 202.99 CNY [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 4.65 billion CNY, down 10.2%, and the net profit was 0.89 billion CNY, down 11.3%. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion CNY, a 7.7% increase, with a net profit of 6.65 billion CNY, up 6.2% [1][3][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 36,011 million CNY with a net profit of 12,243 million CNY. The gross margin improved to 76.2% and the net margin was 34.0% [3][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 8.7% to 39,146 million CNY and net profit growth of 7.6% to 13,169 million CNY. EPS is projected to be 10.79 CNY [3][11]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.1 to 4.3 over the same period [3][11]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy channel inventory and stable pricing, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 51% to 60%, enhancing its attractiveness to long-term investors [7][8]. - The growth strategy includes strengthening brand collaboration and expanding the market presence of secondary brands like Zhuyeqing and Xinghuacun, while Fenjiu remains the primary growth driver [7][8]. Market Position - The company has shown resilience in its operational performance, with balanced revenue growth from both domestic and international markets, and a stable cash flow situation with contract liabilities at 5.82 billion CNY [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [6][2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.01 billion with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a net profit of 12.24 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year for 2024. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year. The company emphasizes stability as the main theme for 2025, adjusting the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 11.11, 12.31, and 13.52 respectively, corresponding to a PE of 18x [1][5][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.24 billion, reflecting a 17.3% growth. The Q4 2024 revenue was 4.65 billion, down 10.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.89 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [1][5][4] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 76.2%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company focused on high-end products, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 26.53 billion, a 14.3% increase year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 10.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% [5][1][4] Market Expansion - The revenue from outside Shanxi province reached 22.37 billion in 2024, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 62.4% of total revenue. The company is expanding its market presence in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions [5][1] Pricing and Sales Volume - The average price per ton was 163,000, a 5% increase year-on-year, with total sales volume reaching 221,000 tons, up 7.2% year-on-year. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.0% year-on-year [5][1] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to maintain stable growth without specifying exact growth targets, focusing on high-quality growth and expanding the consumer base for its clear aroma products [5][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.79% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million RMB) is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with specific products like Qinghua and waist products showing strong performance [7] - Revenue growth in domestic and international markets was 11.7% and 13.8% respectively, indicating balanced growth across regions [7] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2% in 2024, driven by effective inventory control [7] - The net profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%, attributed to better gross margin and tax rate improvements [7] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 13,470 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.02% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.39, 16.13, and 13.68 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion RMB, up 17.3% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion RMB, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.65 billion RMB, up 6.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its product mix and expanding its market presence through strong brand recognition [4]. Revenue Analysis - In terms of product revenue for 2024, high-end liquor and other liquor segments generated 26.53 billion RMB and 9.34 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 9%. Sales volume increased by 13% and 5%, while average prices rose by 1% and 4%, with gross margins improving by 0.4 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points [3]. - Regionally, the company achieved 13.50 billion RMB in revenue from domestic sales and 22.37 billion RMB from external sales in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 14%, respectively. The sales volume decreased by 1% domestically but increased by 11% externally, with price increases contributing to revenue growth [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%, with gross margin up by 0.9 percentage points. For Q1 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.2%, while gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company targets a revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 7.9%, projecting net profits of 13.21 billion RMB for 2025 [5]. Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 10.83 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.7, 17.1, and 15.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, and further to 40,058 in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 11.24% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, and to 13,470 in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.93% and 17.29% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024, and to 11.04 in 2025 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with the Qinghua product line increasing by approximately 15% [7] - Revenue growth was observed both domestically and internationally, with increases of 11.7% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The company has implemented strict inventory control, leading to improved gross margin performance, with a gross margin of 76.2% for 2024 [7] Cost and Expense Management - The sales net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% due to enhancements in gross margin and a decrease in tax rates [7] - Sales and management expenses increased by 15.8% and 23.6% respectively, attributed to personnel expansion and salary increases [7] Future Profitability Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 13.5 billion RMB for 2025 and 15.4 billion RMB for 2026, with growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [7]

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。1）24 年 实现营收 360.1 亿元，同比+12.8%；实现归母净利 122.4 亿元， 同比+17.3%。2）25Q1 实现营收 165.2 亿元，同比+7.7%；实现归 母净利 66.5 亿元，同比+6.2%。业绩超市场预期。 经营分析 从营收结构来看：1）产品端，24 年中高价位酒/其他酒分别实现 营收 265.3/93.4 亿元，同比+14%/+9%；其中，销量分别+13%/+5%， 吨价分别+1%/+4%，毛利率分别+0.4pct/+1.5pct。24Q4 中高价位 酒/其他酒分别实现营收 39.2/7.0 亿元，同比+15%/-59%。25Q1 披露口径调整，汾酒/其他酒类分别实现营收 162.1/2.7 亿元，同 比+8%/-15%。25 年预计腰部产品持续发力，青花 26 导入做增量， 青花 20 稳健增长，玻汾控量区域调结构。 2）区域端，24 年省内/省外分别实现营收 135.0/223.7 亿元，同 比+12%/+14%；其中，销量分别-1%/+11%，吨价分别+13%/+2%，毛 利率分别+1.1p ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a stable growth target for 2025. The company achieved a total revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [6][8] - The company aims to maintain steady revenue growth in 2025, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow by 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 38.328 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 12.994 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 10.65 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 76.2% [5] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 31.2% [5] - The company reported a total revenue of 16.523 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.72% [6][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 26.532 billion yuan, up 14.35% year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 9.342 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 135 billion yuan in its home province, with a year-on-year growth of 11.72%, and 224 billion yuan from outside the province, up 13.81% year-on-year [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 12.172 billion yuan, a significant increase of 68.47% year-on-year [7] - The company reported a net profit margin of 34.03% for 2024, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [7]

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]