Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically for alcoholic beverages, is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - The alcoholic beverage instant retail sector is entering a rapid development phase, with significant room for channel penetration. Instant retail is defined as a "supply revolution" and "efficiency revolution" driven by consumer lifestyles. Major platforms are increasing capital investment, suggesting a new development stage for local living, with instant retail platforms likely transitioning from "selling products" to "selling scenarios" [3][11]. - The market size for alcoholic beverage instant retail is projected to reach 36 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.8%. By 2030, the market could expand to between 60 billion and 90 billion yuan, driven by both supply and demand [3][17]. - The current instant retail channels are categorized into two models: platform models that integrate resources and self-operated models that maintain strong supply chain control [3][19]. - Alcoholic beverage companies are actively embracing channel transformation, with a focus on instant retail and online channels. This shift is seen as a crucial attempt for brands to integrate into consumers' lifestyles [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Development of Alcoholic Beverage Instant Retail - Instant retail is creating "all-weather scenarios" for consumers, accelerating supply-side development [7][11]. - The demand for alcoholic beverages in instant retail is increasing, particularly during nighttime hours, with younger consumers driving this trend [11][12]. 2. Necessity of Channel Transformation - The transformation of alcoholic beverage channels is deemed inevitable due to changing consumer lifestyles and the need for supply chain efficiency [3][31]. - The competition landscape for white and beer products is stabilizing, with consumers forming brand loyalty [3][4]. 3. Potential Opportunities and Highlights - Instant retail channels provide a testing ground for younger products, allowing companies to innovate with lower costs and better data feedback for product development [5][27]. - The shift towards high-end products in the beer sector is facilitated by instant retail, which allows for rapid turnover and the introduction of craft and fresh beer products [5][41]. 4. Accelerated Layout of Instant Retail Channels - Alcoholic beverage companies are increasingly investing in instant retail channels, viewing them as essential for integrating into consumer lifestyles [3][4]. - Companies like Moutai and others are actively recruiting operators on platforms like Meituan and Douyin to expand their consumer base [3][4]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Short-term impacts of instant retail on the competitive landscape of white and beer products may be limited, but long-term opportunities exist for companies that adapt to channel changes [4][5]. - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of childcare subsidies is expected to boost demand in the dairy sector, with a national standard of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments, noting that all sub-sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index during the review period [9][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong certainty in high-end liquor, such as Kweichow Moutai, and also mentions potential in the beer and seasoning sectors due to seasonal demand increases [46][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From July 18 to July 31, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.02%, ranking 25th among Shenwan's primary industries, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.74 percentage points [9][11]. - Approximately 37% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during this period, with notable gainers including Sunshine Dairy (+35.17%) and BeiYinMei (+22.40%) [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: Prices for top brands like Feitian Moutai and Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 1,870 yuan and 835 yuan per bottle, respectively [19]. - **Seasoning Sector**: The price of soybean meal increased by 2.68% month-on-month, while white sugar prices decreased by 0.82% [22]. - **Beer Sector**: Barley prices rose by 0.45% month-on-month, with aluminum prices increasing by 0.15% [27]. - **Dairy Sector**: Fresh milk prices decreased to 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 0.33% month-on-month [34]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork fell to 20.45 yuan per kilogram, down 0.18 yuan from the previous period [36]. Important News - Beer exports saw a significant increase of 64.3% in June, while imports decreased by 20.1% [38]. - The report notes a stable price index for national liquor, with no significant fluctuations observed [39]. - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in profits for the beverage manufacturing sector, with a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [41]. Company Announcements - **East Peng Beverage**: Reported a 36.37% increase in total revenue for the first half of 2025 [44]. - **Jin Zai Food**: Announced a share buyback plan, purchasing 100,000 shares at prices between 12.67 and 12.70 yuan [45].

国金证券8月1日发布研报称，给予山西汾酒（600809.SH）买入评级。评级理由主要包括：1）公司是 2016年至今周期内规模跃升最快的酒企，我们认为其核心优势在于拥有开放且持续迭代的学习型组织； 2）两轮核心转型复盘：完成从战略战术到体制机制的变革；3）产品与区域策略梳理：四轮驱动推进全 国化；4）践行复兴纲领，公司增长潜力充足。风险提示：宏观经济恢复不及预期，禁酒令等政策风 险，全国化外拓不及预期，食品安全风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

金十图示：2025年08月01日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行股走势分化，石油、证券、医药股走软 富时中国A50指数连续 光大银行 2392.96亿市值 6.38亿成交额 4.05 0.00(0.00%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 机械 3608.68亿市值 3569.15亿市值 10598.36亿市值 9.02亿成交额 28.60亿成交额 6.15亿成交额 58.20 37.10 8.16 -0.36(-0.96%) -0.49(-0.83%) -0.02(-0.24%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 17800.32亿市值 2182.64亿市值 4696.75亿市值 42.01亿成交额 9.39亿成交额 14.91亿成交额 1417.00 178.91 121.00 -4.67(-0.33%) -0.09(-0.05%) -0.15(-0.12%) 半导体 海光信息 北方华创 寒武纪-U HYGON 2379.85亿市值 2882.85亿市值 3201.78亿市值 49.98亿成交额 18.35亿成交额 31.52亿成交额 329.80 689.10 137.75 ...

-0.02(-0.35%) +0.09(+0.80%) +0.03(+0.37%) 光大银行 2392.96亿市值 3.88亿成交额 4.05 0.00(0.00%) 得經 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 0 3626.37亿市值 10660.27亿市值 3615.32亿市值 4.24亿成交额 13.91亿成交额 3.56亿成交额 58.54 37.58 8.20 +0.12(+0.32%) -0.15(-0.26%) +0.02(+0.24%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 17807.86亿市值 2176.17亿市值 4692.86亿市值 25.26亿成交额 8.45亿成交额 5.58亿成交额 1417.60 178.38 120.90 -0.62(-0.35%) -4.07(-0.29%) -0.25(-0.21%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2381.29亿市值 2907.41亿市值 3220.14亿市值 12.26亿成交额 30.95亿成交额 21.51亿成交额 138.54 330.00 694.97 -5.20(-1.55%) -14.53(-2.05%) -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is expected to undergo significant changes in the first half of 2025 due to economic and policy influences, presenting potential investment opportunities as the sector is currently in a deep adjustment phase [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The white liquor industry is experiencing five major changes: 1) Product matrix transformation focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, and high cost-performance products; 2) Continuous channel upgrades with companies forming platform firms to enhance channel control and balance online and offline sales; 3) Marketing strategies shifting away from "red envelope" competition to nurturing new scenarios and demographics; 4) Rational goal-setting with leading companies focusing on channel health and long-term development [1][3][4]. - The industry is transitioning from an "advertising king - channel king - brand king" phase to a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The sector currently exhibits characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividend returns, with companies like Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongji boasting dividend yields above 4%, while Kweichow Moutai has a yield of 3.55% [4]. - The expectation is that as consumer spending gradually recovers and the strengths of leading companies become more pronounced, firms with strong barriers will be the first to achieve value re-evaluation [4]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and others that may benefit from policy and demand changes [5].

天风证券研报表示，2025年上半年，经济和政策双重影响下白酒行业迎4大变化：①产品矩阵变化：在 低度化/年轻化/高性价比趋势下，酒企相继重视低度产品序列化&中档价位序列化布局工作&产品品质 升级；②渠道持续升级：酒企通过组建平台公司加强渠道掌控，拥抱新渠道平衡线上线下；③营销：打 破"红包"内卷，侧重培育新场景、新人群；④目标理性：头部酒企均以渠道健康&中长期发展为方向， 理性看待业绩增速目标。板块PE修复或先于EPS修复，预计26Q2板块业绩低基数背景下或迎EPS层面拐 点，重视当前板块投资机会。建议关注：①价值主线：强品牌、强需求韧性且分红回报可观的贵州茅 台、五粮液、山西汾酒等；②弹性主线：政策&需求端变化带来的潜在预期修复机会，泸州老窖、山西 汾酒、酒鬼酒、舍得酒业、水井坊、华致酒行、珍酒李渡等。 ...

二季度，主动基金狂抛白酒股。 不过，基金经理内部对白酒的分歧很大。 有人看好，比如张坤、杨思亮、陈涛等，同期还有不少基民最近两三个月也开始抄底白酒指数基金。 也有人减仓白酒，比如胡昕炜、焦巍、王崇、王园园等。 其中，贵州茅台-7.93%，五粮液-9.48%，山西汾酒-17.68%，泸州老窖-12.58%，洋河股份-12.31%。 在白酒下跌背景下，主动基金大幅减仓白酒股。 据Wind数据统计，2025年一季度，只统计十大重仓股，主动基金持有价值1035.48亿元的白酒股，占基 金股票投资市值的3.21%。但到了二季度，主动基金白酒持股总市值降至677.86亿元，占基金股票投资 市值的2.11%。 也即是说，比起一季度，二季度主动基金重仓白酒股持有市值环比降低35%，占基金股票投资市值的比 例也同步下降1.10个百分点。 从持股数量来看，一季度，主动基金重仓白酒股的持股数量总计5.21亿股，二季度降至3.25亿股，下降 38%。 这意味着，二季度，无论是主动基金对白酒股的重仓持有数量，还是重仓持股市值，都出现明显下降， 降幅大约在三四成之间。 还有人"急转弯"，一季度加仓白酒，二季度又减仓，比如何帅、萧楠、李晓 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 669109 | 路安休能 | 13.72 | -4.85% | 93.69万 | | 12.88 ZI | | 601001 | XD晋控煤 | 13.06 | -4.39% | 38.26万 | | 5.00亿 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | 7.05 | -4.21% | 138.42万 | | 9.82 6 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 9.59 | -4.20% | - 43.84万 | | 4.24亿 | | 600281 | 华阳新材 | 6.78 | -3.56% | 24.91万 | | 1.70亿 | | 000737 | 北方铜业 | 10.63 | -3.54% | 85.52万 | | 9.13 (Z | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 179.00 | -3.30% | 11.56万 | | 20.81亿 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 3.90 | -3.23% | 36. ...