Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.19% to 3969.05 points, and the liquor sector, particularly baijiu stocks, also faced downward pressure, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1] Industry Summary - The baijiu sector saw a collective decline, with 19 out of 20 baijiu stocks falling, reflecting broader market trends [1] - Major baijiu brands reported the following closing prices: Kweichow Moutai at 1426.92 CNY per share (down 0.56%), Wuliangye at 117.68 CNY (down 1.09%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 189.34 CNY (down 1.95%), Luzhou Laojiao at 134.10 CNY (down 0.70%), and Yanghe at 71.08 CNY (up 0.25%) [1] Company Insights - According to Guosheng Securities, since Q3, there has been a sequential improvement in baijiu sales, with Kweichow Moutai stabilizing in July, warming up in August, and improving in September [1] - The demand from weddings and family banquets has positively impacted the sales of mid-range priced baijiu, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Major liquor companies are focusing on price stability and market maintenance, leveraging product and channel innovations to cater to new scenarios and demands, suggesting a strategic shift in response to industry pressures [1] - The most significant sales pressure for the baijiu sector appears to have passed, with expectations for further stabilization and recovery in demand moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that while improvements in the fundamentals of the liquor industry are still awaited, the third-quarter performance shows a significant decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop, leading the market to seek a balance between volume and price [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the liquor industry achieved operating revenue of 310.28 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, and a net profit of 122.69 billion, down 6.63% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor industry reported operating revenue of 76.31 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, and a net profit of 28.21 billion, down 22.0% [2] - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax rates and declining gross margins [2] - The operating cash flow net amount for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 21.39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 54.2% [2] Group 2: Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector was 18.7x, below the average level of 27.6x from 2011 to present [4] - The relative PE multiple of the liquor sector compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4] - The current valuations of the sector and leading companies partially reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure, with potential for improvement if demand recovers [4] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Kweichow Moutai (600519), and Wuliangye (000858) [5] - Other stocks to watch include Yingjia Gongjiu (603198), Jinhui Liquor (603919), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), Jianshiyuan (603369), and Yanghe Brewery (002304) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's performance demonstrates significant resilience compared to peers during the industry's deep adjustment cycle, with a diversified product matrix and enhanced brand influence [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 74.63% in Q3 2025 - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.4 percentage points and 1 percentage point to 10.17% and 3.86% respectively - Net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 32.66%, primarily due to an increase in business taxes and additional charges [1] Sales and Liabilities - Sales revenue decreased by 3% to 8.343 billion yuan - Contract liabilities increased by 5% to 5.781 billion yuan [1] Competitive Position - The company's differentiated competitive advantage is becoming more pronounced as the national strategy accelerates - The internal control mechanism is gradually improving, contributing to strong operational resilience [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-quality companies, indicating a strategic allocation period has begun [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops in revenue and net profit. The public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have also decreased to levels not seen since Q1 2017 [2][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that long-term investors can start pricing high-quality companies as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of CNY 310.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, with net profit falling by 6.63% to CNY 122.69 billion. The revenue decline is more pronounced in lower-tier brands compared to national brands [3][16]. - In Q3 2025, the industry generated CNY 76.31 billion in revenue, down 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 22.0% to CNY 28.21 billion. National brands outperformed lower-tier brands in both revenue and profit growth [3][19]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [3][20]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4][10]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure. If demand improves, the industry could return to a phase of simultaneous valuation and performance recovery [4][10]. 3. Company Performance and Profitability Forecast - The report highlights that the profitability of the liquor industry is under pressure, with significant declines in net profit margins across various brands. The national brands have seen a smaller decline compared to lower-tier brands [3][22]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of operational goals and profitability estimates for key liquor companies, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [4][10].

Core Insights - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce is soliciting opinions on a draft guideline aimed at transforming the "selling liquor" model into a "selling lifestyle" approach, emphasizing the integration of the liquor industry with tourism and other sectors [1] - Century Securities indicates that the adjustment period in the liquor industry is accelerating, with a notable divergence in company performance as the industry continues to face weak consumption recovery [1] - Open Source Securities notes a significant decline in revenue growth for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 compared to Q2, attributing this to weak market demand and companies prioritizing channel order over annual targets [2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "liquor+" industry integration action is being implemented to promote the development of liquor-related tourism, dining, and retail, expanding the industry's boundaries [1] - The adjustment phase in the liquor industry is leading to a faster clearing process, with small and medium-sized enterprises struggling due to high inventory and insufficient recovery in local consumption scenarios [1] - The high-end liquor segment is also experiencing a reporting clearing rhythm, indicating that even resilient brands are not immune to the current market pressures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall price range of liquor is under pressure, with companies facing challenges in managing inventory and pricing strategies [1] - The demand for liquor is approaching a bottom range, with the impact of alcohol bans diminishing and companies proactively reducing supply to alleviate channel pressures [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the medium to long term, with rising household income and consumer willingness likely to support a gradual recovery in liquor consumption [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, with better performance outside its home province. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 32.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s core product, Fenjiu, shows robust performance even during industry downturns, with revenue from Fenjiu reaching 32.171 billion yuan, a 5.54% increase year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a significant decline of 15.88% [2]. - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, particularly in e-commerce, which has shown promising growth with a 124.93% increase in direct sales [2]. - The company has successfully increased its revenue share from outside its home province, with Q3 2025 revenue from outside the province reaching 6.671 billion yuan, a 31.14% increase year-on-year, while revenue from within the province decreased by 35.15% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 74.6%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 32.7% [3]. - The company’s contract liabilities increased to 5.781 billion yuan, up 300 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a growing commitment to future sales [3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -1.2%, 6.0%, and 9.6%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are projected at -1.0%, 6.2%, and 9.6% [4]. Valuation and Market Data - The six-month target price for the company is set at 237.10 yuan, with the current stock price at 193.10 yuan [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 235.575 billion yuan, with a total share count of 1.220 billion shares [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 9.92 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.9 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a severe downturn, characterized by plummeting sales, rising inventory, and a significant shift in consumer behavior, leading to widespread closures of traditional liquor stores and a crisis among liquor companies [1][3][5]. Industry Overview - The number of liquor stores in China is projected to decrease by 17% to 22% in 2025, with some regions experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating a severe liquidity issue for distributors [3]. - Price inversion is prevalent across all price segments, with 32% of high-end liquor priced below cost, leading to minimal profit margins for retailers [3]. Sales and Revenue Trends - In June 2025, sales dropped by 70% due to new alcohol restrictions, with traditional stores struggling to maintain revenue during peak seasons [5]. - Over 90% of liquor companies reported revenue declines in the third quarter of 2025, with notable drops in companies like Shede and Yingjia, which saw revenue decreases of 17% and 18.09% respectively [5][7]. - The overall revenue of 20 listed liquor companies in A-shares fell by 0.86% in the first half of 2025, marking a significant shift in the industry [5]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The proportion of drinkers in China has decreased from 38% in 2016 to 29% in 2024, with a notable decline in the core consumer group of men aged 30-60 [8]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning to alternatives like beer and cocktails, with white liquor's market share among young people dropping to 31.8% [8][10]. - Traditional consumption scenarios, such as government and business events, have drastically reduced, leading to a shift towards more casual drinking occasions [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a crisis of overcapacity, with production declining from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024 [7]. - The stock market for liquor has also suffered, with the China Securities White Liquor Index halving over four years, and significant drops in stock prices for major companies like Yanghe and Jiu Gui [7]. Strategic Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's reclassification of liquor as a historical classic industry aims to provide policy support, but the industry faces challenges from high inventory and changing consumer preferences [10][11]. - There is a debate within the industry about whether to adapt to younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products or to maintain traditional practices and cultural heritage [11].

Core Insights - The A-share liquor industry is experiencing significant performance divergence, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving both revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, while 18 other companies reported declines in both metrics [1][2] Industry Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue reached 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, surpassing Wuliangye to become the second-largest in quarterly revenue [1][2] - Other major companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe saw revenue declines of 10.26%, 4%, and significant drops in net profits, with Luzhou Laojiao's net profit down 65.62% [2][3] Cash Flow and Inventory Issues - The industry is facing a contraction in operating cash flow, with several regional companies reporting negative cash flow, indicating financial strain [1][6] - Inventory levels remain high among leading companies, with Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu all exceeding 10 billion yuan in inventory [3][4] - Luzhou Laojiao's inventory increased from 4.696 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 13.747 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 192.74% increase [4] Market Dynamics - The high inventory and sluggish sales have led to price pressures in the market, with some distributors resorting to discounting strategies to recover cash [5][6] - The industry is undergoing a "deep adjustment" phase, characterized by a shift from high growth to a focus on existing market share, leading to intensified competition among top players [1][3][6] - Shanxi Fenjiu's rise in revenue has disrupted the traditional ranking of the top three liquor companies, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the industry [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with the top three companies—Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu—achieving record revenues, marking a shift in market dynamics [1][3][5] Group 1: Industry Performance - Kweichow Moutai leads the industry with a revenue of 1708.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71%, and a net profit of 862.28 billion yuan, up 15.38% [3][5] - Wuliangye remains in second place with a revenue of 891.75 billion yuan, but its growth has slowed, with a revenue increase of only 7.09% and a net profit increase of 5.44% [3][5] - Shanxi Fenjiu has made significant gains, achieving a revenue of 360.11 billion yuan, a 17.29% increase, surpassing Luzhou Laojiao for the first time [3][7] Group 2: Luzhou Laojiao's Decline - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue reached 311.96 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 3.19%, marking its first single-digit net profit growth since 2014 [5][9] - The company's revenue growth has drastically decreased from 20.34% in 2023 to only 3.19% in 2024, indicating a significant decline in performance compared to its peers [5][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the liquor industry shows a clear divergence, with A-share liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 4422.27 billion yuan, a 2.28% increase, and a net profit of 1666.31 billion yuan, up 4.32% [9][11] - While leading companies like Moutai and Fenjiu continue to grow, many regional companies face challenges with inventory and sales pressure, leading to noticeable declines in performance [9][11] Group 4: Inventory and Challenges - The industry is facing challenges of high inventory and price inversion, with total inventory among 17 A-share liquor companies reaching 1463.35 billion yuan, a 12.50% increase [11][13] - Approximately 70% of companies are experiencing increased inventory turnover days, with some struggling with poor sales and incurring losses [11][13] Group 5: Export Growth and Future Outlook - In 2024, China's liquor export total reached 1.9 billion USD, with white liquor exports at 970 million USD, a 20.4% increase, making up 51% of total liquor exports [13] - The competition logic in the liquor industry is shifting from quantity growth to quality breakthroughs, emphasizing the need for innovation in quality, culture, and consumer experience to thrive in a saturated market [13]

Summary of the Q3 2025 Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry experienced a significant decline in Q3 2025, with revenues and profits dropping by 18.4% and 22.2% respectively, marking the largest quarterly decline in nearly 20 years [1][2] - Excluding Moutai, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 31.5% and 48% year-on-year [2] - The industry is entering a deep adjustment phase, with major companies adopting different strategies to cope with market challenges [1] Performance by Segment - **High-end Baijiu**: Revenue decreased by 15% and profit by 14.8%, heavily impacted by policy changes [4] - **Mid-range Baijiu**: Revenue fell by 8.8% and profit by 18.4% [4] - **Regional Baijiu**: Experienced a drastic revenue decline of 30.3% and profit plummeted by 80.5% [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Moutai**: Despite high profits, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropped rapidly to around 1,600 RMB [5] - **Wuliangye**: Reported a 50% revenue drop and a 65% profit decline, indicating severe market pressure [2] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: Revenue and profit decreased by 10% and 13% respectively [5] - **Fenjiu**: Achieved positive growth in a single quarter but saw a slight profit decline of about 1% [5] - **Yanghe**: Successfully reduced inventory and saw an increase in wholesale prices for certain products [5] - **Jinshuiyuan**: Experienced a profit decline of 48.7%, but future declines are expected to moderate [7] - **Guqingongjiu**: Revenue and profit fell by 51.6% and 74.6% respectively, with a strategy shift to allow distributors to complete 80% of their targets [8] - **Yinjia Company**: Showed resilience with no further deterioration in performance after four quarters of adjustments [9] Financial Metrics and Trends - The overall industry balance sheet shows a 4.7% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities, indicating some recovery signals [10] - Accounts receivable decreased by 23.3% year-on-year, reflecting a trend towards deleveraging in the industry [10] - The cash flow situation indicates that the pressure on distributors is easing, although achieving annual targets remains challenging for most companies [11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand power and market share, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guqingongjiu, which are expected to navigate through the cycle effectively [3][15] - Investors should prioritize the health of distributors, inventory reduction rates, and market share over short-term profitability [6] - The Baijiu sector is anticipated to see a recovery in stock prices as the worst period has passed, with potential for significant profit growth in the future [14][17] Future Outlook - The Baijiu industry is expected to continue facing challenges, but the worst is believed to be over, with opportunities for investment in leading companies and those that have adjusted early [17] - The focus should be on companies that are improving market share and those that have undergone significant adjustments, as they present good investment opportunities [17]