Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a robust performance with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.65% and a net profit increase of 30.20% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The increase in electricity generation, which rose by 15% year-on-year, has significantly contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expected to achieve its annual electricity generation target of 308.8 billion kWh [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 66.331 billion yuan and a net profit of 28.025 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved revenues of 31.522 billion yuan, a 17.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, up 31.81% year-on-year [1] - The total electricity generation for the first three quarters was approximately 235.814 billion kWh, reflecting a 15.97% increase year-on-year [1] Market Data - As of November 1, 2024, the company's stock price was 27.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 2,446.82 billion yuan [1] - The company has a gross profit margin of 70.93% and a net profit margin of 53.28% in Q3 2024, both showing improvements from the previous year [1] - Financial expenses were effectively managed, resulting in a decrease of 11% year-on-year, with a financial expense ratio of 8.91% [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 33.852 billion yuan, 35.675 billion yuan, and 37.014 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are expected to be 20.2, 19.2, and 18.5 [2] Comparable Company Valuation - The company is compared with peers such as Huaneng Hydropower, Chuanwei Energy, and Guotou Power, with its current valuation slightly above the industry average [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in revenue and net profit due to favorable water conditions and high electricity demand, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.65% and a net profit increase of 30.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2]. - The gross profit margin has reached a record high of 70.93% in Q3 2024, reflecting improved profitability [3]. - The report forecasts continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 88.115 billion in 2024, 90.517 billion in 2025, and 92.582 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 33.935 billion, 35.346 billion, and 36.713 billion respectively [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 663.31 billion, a 14.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 280.25 billion, a 30.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 315.22 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.5% [1]. - The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.54%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Highlights - The total power generation from six hydropower stations increased by 15.97% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 generation reaching 1151.96 billion kWh, a 15.05% increase year-on-year and a 69.73% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The report highlights that the company’s financing cost has decreased, with a financial expense ratio of 12.75% in the first three quarters, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a 30% year-on-year increase in profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.03 billion yuan [4][9] - The company is expected to maintain strong performance despite anticipated lower water levels in the fourth quarter, supported by good reservoir conditions [15][17] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 87.10 billion yuan, 87.73 billion yuan, and 91.11 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 33.28 billion yuan, 34.64 billion yuan, and 37.31 billion yuan [2][17] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.36 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.52 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][17] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 20.57, 19.76, and 18.35 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][17] Operational Highlights - The company reported a 15.97% increase in total power generation for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by favorable water conditions [9][12] - The gross profit margin reached a record high of 70.93% in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency [12][14] - The company is actively managing its debt, reducing financial costs by 9.77 billion yuan year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [12][14] Project Development - The company is progressing with its renewable energy projects, managing 21 operational sites with a total installed capacity of 2.648 million kW [15] - The company is advancing seven pumped storage projects, with the Guanghanping project recently entering the construction phase [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.03 billion yuan, up 30.20% year-on-year [5][6]. - The significant increase in performance is attributed to improved water inflow during the flood season, leading to higher electricity generation and potential increases in electricity prices [6]. - The company benefits from a declining interest rate environment, which has reduced financial costs and improved investment returns, further enhancing overall performance [8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 31, 2024: 27.58 yuan - Market capitalization: 662.12 billion yuan - Dividend yield: 2.97% [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.52 billion yuan, a 17.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.66 billion yuan, up 31.81% year-on-year [5][6]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 83.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [10]. Operational Metrics - The total power generation for Q3 2024 was 115.20 billion kWh, a 15.05% increase year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow from major reservoirs [6]. - The company’s debt has decreased significantly, with total liabilities down by 23.14 billion yuan to 347.53 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024 [8]. Profitability Forecast - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 33.25 billion yuan, 35.12 billion yuan, and 37.56 billion yuan respectively, with a commitment to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.65%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 28.02 billion yuan, up 30.20% year-on-year [2][3] - Improved water inflow and rising electricity prices contributed to the revenue growth, with the company’s total power generation reaching approximately 235.81 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.97% [3] - The company’s financial expenses continued to decrease, with a reduction of 340 million yuan in the third quarter [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 87.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.67% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 34.35 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.10% [1] Electricity Pricing and Market Dynamics - The company’s market-based electricity trading volume increased to 37.76% in 2023, up from 7.6% in 2022 [4] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company was 281.28 yuan per MWh in 2023, an increase of 11.56 yuan per MWh compared to 2022 [4] Financial Metrics - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.40 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.65 [1] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 3.6% for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.58 yuan per share [1][3] Core Views - The company reported strong Q3 2024 results, with revenue of 66.331 billion yuan, up 14.65% YoY, and net profit of 28.025 billion yuan, up 30.2% YoY [1] - Hydropower generation increased significantly due to favorable water conditions, with total power generation from six cascade power stations reaching 235.814 billion kWh, up 15.97% YoY [1] - The company's pumped storage business has clear returns, and its overseas operations are developing steadily, with the completion of the Sapphire wind power project in Peru [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.522 billion yuan, up 17.27% YoY, and net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, up 31.81% YoY [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.35, 1.43, and 1.55 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.4x, 19.2x, and 17.8x [1] - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be 9%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, while net profit growth is projected at 21%, 6%, and 8% [2] Hydropower Operations - The upstream Wudongde reservoir received 88.852 billion cubic meters of water, 12.56% higher than the same period last year, while the downstream Three Gorges reservoir received 313.110 billion cubic meters, up 20.26% YoY [1] - The Baihetan reservoir completed its 2024 water storage task, with a total storage of 3.139 billion cubic meters, and generated 24.442 billion kWh in Q3, up 15.46% YoY [1] Business Development - The company's pumped storage business is expected to participate in medium- and long-term power trading, spot market trading, and auxiliary service markets, ensuring stable returns [1] - Overseas operations are progressing well, with the completion of the Sapphire wind power project in Peru, strengthening the company's power generation, distribution, and sales chain in the region [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 85.106 billion yuan, 86.4 billion yuan, and 88.559 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit of 33.035 billion yuan, 35.098 billion yuan, and 37.810 billion yuan [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 20.4x, 19.2x, and 17.8x, respectively, with a P/B ratio of 3.1x, 3.0x, and 2.8x [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 66.33 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.02 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total power generation for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 235.814 billion kWh, an increase of 15.97% year-on-year, driven by favorable water inflow conditions [2]. - The company maintained a stable electricity price, estimated at approximately 0.274 yuan per kWh in Q3 2024, which is a 5 cents increase compared to the same period last year, supporting revenue growth [2]. - Cost control measures and a reduction in financial expenses contributed to a significant increase in net profit, which rose by 31.8% to 16.66 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 31.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while operating costs only increased by 3.5%, leading to a gross margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 70.9% [2]. - Financial expenses for the first three quarters totaled approximately 8.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, enhancing profit margins [2]. - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 34.02 billion yuan, 35.86 billion yuan, and 37.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.8x, 18.8x, and 18.1x [3]. Operational Insights - As of October 16, 2024, the water level at the Baihetan Hydropower Station reached 824.1 meters, with a total water storage of 3.139 billion cubic meters, ensuring power supply stability for the upcoming winter and spring [3]. - The company has shown excellent cost management capabilities, which are expected to continue supporting its financial performance in the coming years [3].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 长江电力 2024 年三季报点评 水电主业量价齐升，投资收益稳健增长 长江电力(600900) [Table_Industry] 电力/公用事业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------|-------|--------|----------------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 于鸿光 ( 分析师 ) | 孙辉贤 ( 分析师 ) | | 汪玥 ( | 研究助理 | ) | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changjiang Electric Power is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 66.33 billion RMB, up 14.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 28.02 billion RMB, up 30.2% year-on-year [2] - Improved water inflow conditions led to a 15.1% increase in power generation in Q3 2024, with total power generation reaching 115.2 billion kWh [2] - The average on-grid electricity price is expected to rise, contributing to revenue growth that outpaced power generation growth [2] - The company plans to invest over 2 billion RMB in R&D in 2024, focusing on hydropower scheduling, operation, maintenance, and smart hydropower construction [2] - The company’s financial expenses decreased by approximately 310 million RMB year-on-year, indicating effective debt management [2] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit of 16.66 billion RMB, up 31.8% [2] - The total water inflow for the Wudongde and Three Gorges reservoirs increased by 12.6% and 20.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [2] - The sales gross margin reached approximately 70.9%, reflecting a 3.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 33.1 billion RMB, 36.0 billion RMB, and 37.25 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.35 RMB, 1.47 RMB, and 1.52 RMB [2] - The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 20x, 19x, and 18x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 reached CNY 31.52 billion, a 17.27% increase compared to the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 16.66 billion, reflecting a 31.81% year-on-year growth[3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 16.61 billion, up 28.19% from the previous year[3] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2024 was CNY 0.6810, an increase of 31.81% year-on-year[3] - The net profit for the third quarter of 2024 reached CNY 28.38 billion, an increase of 29.5% compared to CNY 21.90 billion in the same period last year[16] - The total comprehensive income for the third quarter of 2024 was CNY 28.89 billion, up 27.5% from CNY 22.74 billion in the previous year[16] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2024 were CNY 1.1454, compared to CNY 0.8797 in the same quarter of 2023, reflecting a 30.2% increase[18] - The revenue from sales of goods and services for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 19,995,218,396.42, compared to CNY 16,585,741,138.77 in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 20.5%[25] Cash Flow and Investments - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was CNY 47.65 billion, representing a 30.96% increase year-on-year[3] - Cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 was CNY 47.65 billion, a rise of 31.0% from CNY 36.38 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash inflow from investment activities for the first nine months of 2024 totaled CNY 35.85 billion, down 44.0% from CNY 64.24 billion in the previous year[20] - Cash outflow from investment activities for the first nine months of 2024 was CNY 41.50 billion, a decrease of 69.9% compared to CNY 137.97 billion in the same period last year[20] - The net cash flow from financing activities for the third quarter of 2024 was CNY -43.25 billion, compared to CNY 34.44 billion in the same quarter of 2023[20] - The cash received from investment income was CNY 14,721,454,277.18, up from CNY 11,673,004,189.84 in the previous year, indicating a growth of about 26.2%[26] - The company reported a significant increase in cash inflow from the recovery of investments, totaling CNY 32,645,844,331.95, compared to CNY 57,555,568,577.27 in the same period last year[26] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 569.35 billion, a slight decrease of 0.50% compared to the end of the previous year[4] - The total assets as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 amounted to CNY 301,350,114,344.75, a decrease from CNY 312,899,887,286.96 at the end of the previous period[22] - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 347.53 billion in 2024 from CNY 359.87 billion in 2023, a decline of 3.7%[13] - The total liabilities were reported at CNY 147,841,074,934.48, compared to CNY 149,427,486,748.37 in the previous period, showing a slight decrease[22] - The total owner's equity decreased to CNY 153,509,039,410.27 from CNY 163,472,400,538.59, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.1%[22] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 298,847[8] - China Three Gorges Corporation holds 11,458,082,476 shares, accounting for 46.83% of total shares[8] - The number of shares held by the top ten shareholders includes significant stakes from state-owned enterprises[9] - The total number of shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 10,997,121,263[9] - The company has a pledge situation involving 704,698,949 shares by China Three Gorges Corporation[8] Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased to ¥349.35 million in 2024 from ¥237.75 million in 2023, representing a growth of 46.9%[15] - The company's research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were CNY 196,390,163.78, up from CNY 137,109,584.87 in 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 43.3%[23] Financial Ratios - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) improved to 8.24%, up 1.63 percentage points from the previous year[4] - The company reported a net profit margin improvement, with operating profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching ¥33.75 billion, compared to ¥25.55 billion in 2023[15] Other Financial Metrics - The company reported a decrease in other comprehensive income attributable to the parent company, totaling CNY 511.52 million, down from CNY 838.41 million in the previous year[16] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased to ¥6,558,947,132.69 from ¥7,800,007,535.55[11] - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of September 2024 were CNY 6.50 billion, a decrease from CNY 7.79 billion at the end of December 2023[20] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amounted to CNY 2,188,842,783.15, a decrease from CNY 2,964,645,794.23 at the end of the same period last year[26] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and invest in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency[12]