基础化工/化学原料 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 煤价下跌煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 2025 年 03 月 04 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 煤价下跌致煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 自 2024 年 10 月国内煤价持续走低，截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日秦港 Q5500 动力末 煤平仓价 690 元/吨，较 2024 年 10 月初降 177 元/吨；2025 年 1-2 月秦港均价 745 元/吨，环比 2024Q4 均价-9.4%。受益于成本端煤价下滑，公司烯烃及焦炭业务 盈利有望受益，我们维持 2024 年盈利预测并上调 2025-2026 年盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润 63.6/127.4/136.4 亿元（前值为 63.6/109.5/121.2 亿元）， 同比+12.5%/+100.4%/+7.1%；EPS 为 0.87/1.74/1.86 元，对应当前股价 PE 为 19.6/9.8/9.1 倍。公司盈利受益于煤化工成本下降与 ...

宝丰能源（600989.SH） 煤价下跌煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 2025 年 03 月 04 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | 张绪成（分析师） | | --- | zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 基础化工/化学原料 煤价下跌致煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 自 2024 年 10 月国内煤价持续走低，截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日秦港 Q5500 动力末 煤平仓价 690 元/吨，较 2024 年 10 月初降 177 元/吨；2025 年 1-2 月秦港均价 745 元/吨，环比 2024Q4 均价-9.4%。受益于成本端煤价下滑，公司烯烃及焦炭业务 盈利有望受益，我们维持 2024 年盈利预测并上调 2025-2026 年盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润 63.6/127.4/136.4 亿元（前值为 63.6/109.5/121.2 亿元）， 同比+12.5%/+100.4%/+7.1%；EPS 为 0.87/1.74/1.86 元，对应当前股价 PE 为 19.6/9.8/9.1 倍。公司盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.50 per share, based on a DCF valuation method [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a recovery in the olefin price spread in Q4 2024, while the coking segment's profitability declined due to significant price drops in coking coal and coke [2][3]. - The Inner Mongolia olefin project is progressing as planned, with the second and third production lines expected to start trial runs by the end of January and March 2025, respectively [3][10]. - The Xinjiang 4 million ton olefin project is still in the preliminary stages, awaiting government approval [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 37.213 billion in 2024 to RMB 59.389 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant increase [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 7.520 billion in 2024 to RMB 13.337 billion in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.03 in 2024 to RMB 1.82 in 2025 [7]. Market Data - As of January 15, 2025, the company's stock price was RMB 16.68, with a market capitalization of RMB 122 billion (approximately USD 16.7 billion) [5][24]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of RMB 17.84 to RMB 13.16 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23x for 2024 and 13x for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][7]. - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) is projected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 22.5% in 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 16.84 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Views - The company, Baofeng Energy, is recognized as a high-quality target in the new coal chemical industry, with continuous improvement in operational performance and expected growth driven by new capacity releases in Inner Mongolia [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baofeng Energy is a coal-based multi-production circular economy demonstration enterprise, focusing on the coal-to-olefins process, with ongoing upgrades in production technology and management efficiency [3][16]. - The company has a complete coal chemical circular economy industrial chain and adheres to the national "dual carbon" strategy, promoting sustainable development [16][18]. Financial Performance - From 2016 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from RMB 8.03 billion to RMB 29.14 billion, with a CAGR of 20.22%, while net profit increased from RMB 1.72 billion to RMB 5.65 billion, with a CAGR of 18.54% [22]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 24.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, and a net profit of RMB 4.54 billion, up 16.60% year-on-year [22]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has a coal-to-olefins capacity of 2.2 million tons per year in Ningxia and is expanding its capacity in Inner Mongolia to 5.2 million tons per year, which will significantly increase its market position [8][21]. - The first production line of 1 million tons per year in Inner Mongolia has successfully entered trial production as of November 2024 [8][21]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company benefits from a cost advantage in coal-to-olefins production compared to traditional oil-based methods, especially in a market environment where oil-coal price differentials remain high [8][37]. - The focus on coal-based production aligns with the growing domestic demand for olefins, with projected increases in consumption for both ethylene and propylene [37][40]. Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6.33 billion, RMB 12.57 billion, and RMB 14.20 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5, 9.8, and 8.7 [5][7]. - The company maintains a strong gross margin, with the olefins segment showing improved profitability due to favorable market conditions [25][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is positioned to benefit from its cost advantages in coal-to-olefins production, particularly with its Inner Mongolia project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge further [3] - The company has successfully commenced production at its Inner Mongolia project, with expectations for steady performance and increased sales in the upcoming quarters [6] - The company is expanding its production capacity with plans for a third base in Xinjiang, which will significantly increase its long-term growth potential [15] Summary by Sections Cost Advantages - Baofeng Energy has a leading cost structure in coal-to-olefins production, with the Inner Mongolia project expected to further enhance this advantage. Key factors include: - Shorter transportation distances for raw materials, saving approximately 351 CNY/ton in freight costs - Use of advanced DMTO-Ⅲ technology, reducing raw material costs by about 224 CNY/ton - A large-scale production capacity of 1 million tons/year, leading to a reduction in depreciation costs by approximately 298 CNY/ton - Overall, the unit cost of olefins from the Inner Mongolia base is projected to be about 873 CNY/ton lower than that from the Ningdong base [3] Production and Sales Outlook - The first production line of the Inner Mongolia project has successfully started operations, with production expected to contribute positively to sales in Q4. The Ningdong base is also operating at full capacity, with a projected increase in output by 100,000 tons in Q4 [6] - The company is benefiting from a recent decline in coal prices, which has improved the price differentials for its products [6] Financial Projections - The forecasted net profits for Baofeng Energy for 2024-2026 are 65.58 billion, 141.35 billion, and 169.90 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 115.5%, and 20.2% respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.89, 1.93, and 2.32 CNY for the same period [7] Capacity Expansion - The company is planning to establish a third production base in Xinjiang with a capacity of 4 million tons/year, alongside additional expansions at the Ningdong base, which will significantly increase its total production capacity to 9.7 million tons/year in the long term [15]

证券代码：600989 证券简称：宝丰能源 公告编号：2024-053 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司关于关联交易 事项监管工作函的回复及关联交易暂缓执行的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）高度重视与投资者的双向 沟通，广泛听取投资者的意见与建议，始终重视保护股东尤其是中小投资者的合法权 益。经考虑投资者意见并经公司经营管理层审慎研究，与交易对方友好协商后决定本 次关联交易暂缓执行，计划待拟收购项目竣工验收并投入运营后，视该项目的实际经 营情况决定与交易对手方协商是否继续本次交易，届时将按照相关法律法规履行相关 决策程序和信息披露。 公司于近日收到上海证券交易所上市公司管理一部发来的《关于宁夏宝丰能源集 团股份有限公司现金收购关联方资产事项的监管工作函》（上证公函〔2024〕3688号 ，以下简称"监管工作函"）。公司高度重视，组织相关部门对监管工作函中提出的 问题进行了逐项核查。现就有关情况回复如下： 一、关于本次交易目的。公司主营煤化工 ...

中和资产评估有限公司 关于 《关于宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司现金收购关联方资产 事项的监管工作函》（上证公函[2024]3688 号）回复意见 中和资产评估有限公司关于《关于宁夏宝丰能源集团股份 有限公司现金收购关联方资产事项的监管工作函》（上证 公函[2024]3688 号）回复意见 上海证券交易所: 问题:关于标的资产作价公允性。公告显示，本次标的采用成本法进行评估, 项目总资产账面价值 38,624.17 万元,评估价值 43,558.64 万元,增值率为 12.78%。 根据评估报告,本次收购蒸汽综合管线项目资产包括在建工程和无形资产。无形 资产方面，苏银产业段所占土地权属证书尚在办理中，灵武段所占土地未明确办 理进度。实物资产为在建工程，账面价值核算内容主要为工程费用、安装费用、 施工材料费用及设计费、监理费、建设单位管理费等待摊费用。 (1) 逐项列示标的资产明细,并补充披露具体评估过程,包括评估假设、参数 选取及依据等,说明产生评估溢价的原因及合理性。请评估机构就问题（1）发 表意见。 回复如下: 根据贵所出具的上证公函[2024]3688 号《关于宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限 公司现金收购关联方 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9][11]. Core Viewpoints - The darkest hour has passed, and the polyolefin industry landscape is stabilizing and improving, with coal-to-olefins routes offering higher economic benefits compared to oil-based routes [6][7]. - Xinjiang has excellent coal resources, and since the 14th Five-Year Plan, national policies have accelerated the matching of various industrial factors, supporting the rapid advancement of the company's projects in Xinjiang and opening up growth space [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Why Coal-to-Olefins is Promising - The demand growth for polyolefins has slowed, aligning with GDP growth levels, while supply growth has significantly declined, leading to a potential stabilization of the industry landscape [6][51]. - The cost advantage of coal-based routes is significant, as coal-to-olefins production relies on stable and reliable raw material sources, contrasting with the high import dependency of oil and gas [6][7][67]. Why Xinjiang Coal-to-Olefins is Attractive - Xinjiang's coal resources are advantageous, with low mining costs and supportive government policies accelerating the development of new coal chemical projects [7][67]. - The region's infrastructure improvements, including water and rail resources, are enhancing the competitive edge of coal-to-olefins projects [7][67]. Why the Company is Attractive - The company is a leading player in coal-to-olefins with high growth potential and low costs, expecting to increase its production capacity significantly with new projects [8][9]. - The company has a low investment intensity, which helps maintain lower depreciation and amortization costs, while continuous process innovations reduce energy and water consumption [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.24 billion yuan, 13.62 billion yuan, and 15.54 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.4X, 8.9X, and 7.8X based on the closing price on November 27, 2024 [9].

标题：关于宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司现金收购关联方资产事项的监管工作函 证券代码：600989 证券简称：宝丰能源 监管类型：监管工作函 涉及对象：上市公司,董事,监事,高级管理人员,中介机构及其相关人员 处分日期：2024-11-28 处理事由：现金收购关联方资产事项 ...

宁 夏 宝 丰 能 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 拟 收 购 宁 夏 宝 丰 昱 能 科 技 有限公司蒸汽综合管线项目所涉及的相关资产项目 本报告依据中国资产评估准则编制 中国资产评估协会 资产评估业务报告备案回执 | 报告编码 | ： | 6411020179641101202400187 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合同编号 | ： | 2024YCV1113 | | | | | | | 报告类型 | ： | 法定评估业务资产 评估报告 | | | | | | | 报告文号 | ： | 中和评报字 第YCV1113号 | (2024) | | | | | | 报告名称 | ： | 宁夏宝丰能源集团股 份有限公司拟 能科技有限公司蒸汽综合管线项 | | | 目所涉及的相关资 | | 收购宁夏宝丰昱 | | | | 产项 | 目资产评估报告 | | | | | | 评估结论： | | 435,586,414.50元 | | | | | | | 评估报告日 | ： | 2024年11月22 | 日 | | ...