Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks showed a rebound in early trading, with significant gains observed across major firms, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential growth in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huatai Securities (601688) rose by 5.71%, reaching HKD 19.63 [1] - China Merchants Securities (600999) increased by 5.56%, reaching HKD 16.53 [1] - GF Securities (000776) saw a rise of 4.97%, reaching HKD 18.81 [1] - CITIC Securities (600030) gained 5.08%, reaching HKD 28.52 [1] Group 2: Market Forecast - Huaxi Securities reported that by Q3 2025, 45 listed brokerages are expected to achieve adjusted revenue of CNY 158.1 billion in a single quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, these brokerages are projected to realize adjusted operating income of CNY 398.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44% [1] Group 3: Business Outlook - Kaiyuan Securities noted a significant increase in trading activity and margin financing scale in Q3, suggesting that the year-on-year growth rate of brokerage earnings in the quarterly report is likely to expand further [1] - Looking ahead, improvements are expected in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses, with leading brokerages' overseas operations and organic growth driving return on equity (ROE) expansion [1] - The brokerage sector remains undervalued, with institutional underallocation, presenting strategic allocation opportunities, particularly with upcoming quarterly reports and policy events as catalysts [1]

Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the securities industry remains optimistic, with expectations for continued profit growth in the third quarter driven by sustained demand for wealth management services [3][4]. Market Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index experienced fluctuations, with Huayin Securities leading gains at 0.56% [1]. - The broker ETF (512000) saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 336 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [2]. - The broker ETF's latest share count reached 60.7 billion, marking a one-year high and leading among comparable funds [2]. Trading Activity - The broker ETF recorded a turnover of 0.04% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 14.93 million yuan [2]. - Over the past 22 days, the broker ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.262 billion yuan, totaling 7.274 billion yuan in net inflows [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The securities industry is expected to maintain a double-digit profit growth rate year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting a robust fundamental outlook [3]. - Despite a strong equity market performance year-to-date, the broker sector's index has lagged behind the broader market, indicating potential value in large broker valuations [4]. Investor Sentiment - As holidays approach, the topic of "holding cash or stocks" becomes crucial for investors, with many brokerages recommending "holding stocks through the holiday" based on optimistic market outlooks [2].

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with October A-shares likely entering a critical window period for risk appetite recovery [1][2][4] - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with current valuations remaining reasonable and not overly stretched [1][3] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with opportunities for "high-low cut" strategies within this sector [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by factors such as the upward trend in margin financing and potential seasonal inflows from foreign capital [1][4][5] - The focus on cyclical industries is expected to yield better performance in the fourth quarter, with over 65% probability of these sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Areas with improving earnings or sustained high growth are projected to generate excess returns, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in bond issuance by securities firms in China reflects a strong demand for capital, driven by increased market activity, expansion of capital-intensive businesses, and favorable financing conditions in a low-interest-rate environment [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Scale - As of September 28, 2023, the total bond issuance by securities firms has exceeded 1.18 trillion yuan, marking an 83.27% year-on-year increase, with 616 bonds issued compared to 366 in the same period last year [2]. - Monthly issuance saw a significant increase, with July reaching 142.99 billion yuan and August further rising to 275.5 billion yuan, setting new records for both volume and scale [2]. - Leading firms dominate the issuance, with seven firms surpassing 50 billion yuan in bond issuance, including China Galaxy, which issued over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Use of Funds - The bond issuance is characterized by a diverse allocation of funds, including debt repayment, liquidity support, and targeted investments, particularly in margin trading and derivatives [3]. - A significant portion of the funds is used for refinancing high-interest debt, optimizing debt structures, and enhancing operational capital for business expansion [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Demand - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong A-share market, lower financing costs, and a supportive regulatory environment [4]. - The A-share market's performance, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing key thresholds, has led to a surge in trading activity, boosting demand for capital [4]. Group 4: Issuance Costs - The average interest rates for bond issuance have decreased compared to the previous year, with company bonds averaging 1.89%, subordinate bonds at 2.25%, and short-term financing bonds at 1.77% [5]. - Debt financing is favored over equity financing due to its larger funding capacity, lower costs in the current environment, and flexibility in meeting different business funding cycles without diluting equity [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for capital among securities firms is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating continued high bond issuance in the fourth quarter [6]. - Leading firms are likely to strengthen their competitive positions due to capital and cost advantages, potentially intensifying the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [6].

Domestic Economic Trends - Q3 price stabilization trend has strengthened, with traditional industry prices rebounding in September, and a more pronounced recovery in the new energy sector due to improved downstream demand[1] - Domestic growth stabilization policies are expected to intensify, with concentrated fiscal efforts in Q4, although achieving the annual growth target remains under pressure due to significant economic data declines in July and August[1] International Economic Developments - On September 25, Trump announced tariffs on heavy trucks, kitchen and bathroom materials, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, with some tariffs supported by Section 232 investigations[1] - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and August durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding expectations[1] Asset Market Insights - The domestic policy tone has temporarily shifted back to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with expectations of a short-term buying window for interest rate bonds[1] - The US economic fundamentals show no recession risk, and the recent FOMC has significantly lowered the 2026 rate cut expectations, suggesting that changes in future rate cut expectations are unlikely to negatively impact the market[1] Monetary Liquidity and Market Conditions - The overall funding environment remains tight as the quarter-end and National Day holiday approach, with the benchmark interest rate rising by approximately 1.92 basis points[2] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 1,047.21 billion yuan, reaching 72,679.9995 billion yuan[5] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds was negative at -3,225.7 billion yuan, with a planned issuance of 107.15 billion yuan for the upcoming week, a significant decrease from 443.58 billion yuan this week[6] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6589%, reflecting a slight increase of 1.79 basis points compared to the previous week[7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 28 日 维持震荡看多，风格转向大盘 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250928 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 金融工程 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场继续震荡，大盘成长风格维持强势，价值风格继续走弱。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 0.25%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别上涨约 1.09%、 1.09%，中证 1000 则下跌约 0.52%。国证价值下跌约 0.25%，而国证成长上 涨约 2.37%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 1.97%、6.47%。 ❑ 择时方面，继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心原因 为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽裕、基 本面上信贷脉冲不弱且消费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the intertwined nature of money and banking, stating that modern banks and credit money emerged simultaneously, with banks generating interest income through money creation and service fees from money circulation [5][10] - It discusses the evolution of financial regulation, highlighting the tightening of financial supervision and the reduction of regulatory arbitrage opportunities, which impacts banks' macro credit creation capabilities [5][11] - The report notes the global dominance of the US dollar as a world currency, while also addressing the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi amid the declining trust in the dollar [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Money and Banking - The report introduces the concept that studying banks necessitates an understanding of money, and vice versa, establishing a foundation for further exploration of banking and monetary systems [10] Evolution of Money - The report outlines the progression from a barter system to the introduction of physical currency, illustrating how complex transactions necessitated a common medium of exchange [12][14][16] Wealth Accumulation and Banking - It describes the transition from wealth storage in physical forms to the establishment of banks, where trust in goldsmiths led to the creation of deposit certificates and the initial forms of banking [18][21] Modern Banking System - The report details the characteristics of the modern banking system, including the role of central banks, reserve requirements, and the impact of regulatory frameworks on banking operations [29][30]

Company Overview - Full Name: Zhejiang Airo Network Energy Technology Co., Ltd [1] - Abbreviation: Airo Energy [1] - Stock Code: 688717.SH [1] - IPO Application Date: June 30, 2022 [1] - Listing Date: January 3, 2024 [1] - IPO Underwriter: China Merchants Securities [1] - IPO Law Firm: King & Wood Mallesons [1] - IPO Audit Firm: Rongcheng Accounting Firm [1] Disclosure and Evaluation - Disclosure Issues: Required to adjust the prospectus for information disclosure; contradictions in the sponsor's report regarding the distribution model and client disclosures; required to re-disclose major raw material suppliers, technical level, and market position; required to remove redundant disclosures about market position and operational achievements; required to enhance content on "core technology leakage risk"; required to delete "R&D failure risk" and related important commitments [1] - Regulatory Penalties: No deductions [2] - Public Supervision: No deductions [2] Listing Performance - Listing Cycle: Airo Energy's listing cycle is 552 days, shorter than the average of 629.45 days for 2024 A-share companies [3] - Multiple Applications: Not applicable, no deductions [4] - Issuance Costs: Underwriting and sponsorship fees amount to 206.62 million, with a commission rate of 9.28%, higher than the average of 7.71% [4] - First Day Performance: Stock price increased by 57.98% on the first day of listing [5] - Three-Month Performance: Stock price increased by 41.32% compared to the issuance price within three months of listing [7] Financial Metrics - Issuance Price-Earnings Ratio: Airo Energy's issuance P/E ratio is 7.95 times, which is 45.64% of the industry average of 17.42 times [8] - Actual Fundraising Ratio: Expected fundraising of 1.047 billion, actual fundraising of 2.226 billion, with an oversubscription ratio of 112.64% [9] Short-Term Performance - Short-Term Financial Performance: In 2024, the company's operating revenue decreased by 31.30% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 80.88%, and non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 86.39% [10] - Subscription and Underwriting Rates: Abandonment rate is 0.35% [11] Overall Evaluation - Total Score: Airo Energy's IPO project scored 80.5 points, classified as B-level. Negative factors affecting the score include the need for improved disclosure quality, high issuance cost rate, excessive actual fundraising, and declines in revenue and net profit in the first accounting year [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet and non-ferrous metal sectors, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue benefiting from long-term upward trends despite potential market volatility [1] - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with internet stocks anticipated to be among the biggest beneficiaries [1] - Non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from both liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and high-end manufacturing small caps, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks, which have significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as to value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are recommended for bottom-up investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong's internet and non-ferrous metal sectors has been strong, and the recommendation to invest in these sectors remains unchanged. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue despite potential market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in the near term, but the long-term upward trend is expected to remain intact [1] - AI continues to be a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with the internet sector expected to be one of the primary beneficiaries [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from dual advantages of liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] - It is recommended to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and small caps in high-end manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks with significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are identified as potential candidates for bottom-up investment [1]