Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a paradigm shift from performance-driven growth to valuation-driven growth, influenced by supply constraints and stable coal prices [10][16]. - The long-term contracts in the coal sector are enhancing the stability of earnings, providing a buffer against market volatility [24][28]. - The report highlights that despite recent price declines, the coal sector's defensive attributes may offer unique advantages in uncertain market conditions [60][66]. Summary by Sections 1. What to Invest in the Coal Industry? - The focus is on long-term contracts and stable coal prices as key investment areas [8]. 2. Why Shift from Performance to Valuation? - Supply elasticity is decreasing, leading to enhanced stability in return on equity (ROE) [18][21]. - The increase in capital expenditures since 2021 has been significant, with new coal mine approvals becoming more complex and costly [19][20]. - The long-term contract mechanism is crucial for stabilizing earnings expectations in the coal sector [24][27]. 3. Why Has the Coal Sector Seen Significant Corrections Since H2 2024? - The fundamental issue stems from strong supply and weak demand, leading to a surplus in coal supply [39][41]. - The decline in electricity prices has pressured profit margins across the coal-electricity supply chain [39][41]. 4. Can the Sector Still Rise Despite Weak Demand? - Concerns about demand are driven by a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and the increasing substitution of coal by renewable energy sources [48][53]. - The report suggests that even with demand concerns, coal's defensive characteristics may still provide stability in performance [60][66]. 5. Long-term Outlook for Thermal Coal - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in coal supply-demand dynamics by late May 2025, with potential support for coal prices [66][67].

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The coal sector's overall net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, with an average ROE of approximately 10% [1] - The total profit of large coal enterprises is projected to be 604.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [1] - Key coal companies are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 155.5 billion yuan, down 18.6% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: 2024 Operational Overview - The total coal production of 28 key coal companies is estimated at 1.34 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is approximately 131 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25% [2] - The weighted average coal price and cost are projected to decrease by 7% and remain stable, respectively [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The sector's profit is expected to decline by 27% year-on-year, with an average net profit margin of around 11% [3] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to be 31 billion yuan, down 27.3% year-on-year [3] - The average gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 are expected to drop to 25% and 11%, respectively [3] Group 4: Q1 2025 Operational Overview - The coal production of 24 companies is expected to reach 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is projected to decrease to 97 yuan, with coal prices and costs declining by 18% and 15%, respectively [4] - Some companies, such as Shaanxi Energy and Yancoal, are expected to maintain a net profit per ton exceeding 100 yuan [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Seasonal demand for thermal coal is expected to improve marginally after May, with expectations of increased industrial demand and reduced coal imports [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to gradually recover after inventory declines, despite a potential downward trend in the price center for 2025 [5] Group 6: Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include China Coal Energy and Yancoal [6] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to face significant pressure in 2024 due to falling coal prices, leading to an estimated 18.8% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a further decline of 29.7% anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Industry Summary - The total revenue for the coal industry in 2024 is projected to be 1.3574 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 146.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.8% decline [2]. - In Q1 2025, the coal industry is expected to generate 279.5 billion yuan in revenue, down 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.65 billion yuan, representing a 29.7% decline [2]. - The supply-demand dynamics for thermal coal are expected to weaken, with a notable increase in coal imports and the release of production capacity in the latter half of 2024, leading to further price pressures [2]. Coal Segment Analysis - The coking coal segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 11.4% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 45.5% due to weak demand and policy constraints [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced by the overall health of the black metal industry, with a decrease in demand from key sectors like real estate and infrastructure contributing to price declines [3]. Investment Logic - High-dividend coal companies are expected to exhibit defensive characteristics, with recommendations to focus on firms with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal (601225), and China Coal Energy (601898) [4]. - The coal-electricity joint operation model is seen as a way to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and benefit from price differentials between market and long-term contract coal prices, with suggested companies including Xinjie Energy (601918), Shaanxi Coal, and China Shenhua [5]. - The cyclical sector may benefit from economic stimulus policies, with expectations of increased domestic demand driven by government fiscal measures, recommending attention to Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), Huaibei Mining (600985), and Pingdingshan Coal (601666) [6].

Group 1 - The Zhongzheng Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) increased by 0.25% as of May 7, 2025, with notable gains from Huali Group (300979) up 4.64% and Guangdong Hongda (002683) up 4.52% [2] - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) rose by 1.02%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.18 yuan and a total scale reaching 67.06 million yuan, a new high in nearly a month as of May 6 [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index accounted for 53.26% of the index, including BYD (002594) and China Ping An (601318) [7] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, only 46.34% of the market value of listed state-owned enterprises in Shandong Province experienced growth, with only one enterprise exceeding a market value of 100 billion yuan showing an increase [4] - The Shandong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau to encourage state-owned enterprises to enhance investment value through share buybacks, increased dividends, and other measures [4] Group 3 - The state-owned enterprise co-win ETF (159719) includes various stocks with notable weightings such as China Petroleum (601857) at 15.58% and China Shenhua (601088) at 2.91% [6] - The performance of major stocks in the state-owned enterprise ETF shows slight increases, with China Petroleum up 1.13% and China Mobile (600941) up 0.39% [6]

Core Insights - The coal industry in China reported mixed results for Q1 2025, with over 70% of listed coal companies remaining profitable, yet most experienced significant declines in net profit year-on-year, with some companies even reporting losses [1][4][12] - Baofeng Energy, led by Ningxia's richest man, achieved a remarkable net profit growth of 71.49%, standing out in an otherwise declining industry [1][8] Financial Performance Summary - Major coal companies reported the following net profits and year-on-year changes: - China Shenhua: 11.949 billion, -17.96% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical: 4.805 billion, -1.23% - Baofeng Energy: 2.437 billion, +71.49% [2] - A total of 32 out of 39 listed coal companies saw a decline in net profit, with 12 companies experiencing declines over 30% [4][12] Factors Behind Profit Decline - Market price fluctuations have directly impacted coal company profits, with average prices for major coal types, such as thermal coal, dropping approximately 25% year-on-year [5][6] - The supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by a warm winter and increased renewable energy generation, which saw a 18.7% year-on-year increase in wind and solar power output [5][12] - Rising production costs due to deeper mining and increased safety and environmental expenditures have further squeezed profit margins [6][12] Baofeng Energy's Growth Strategy - Baofeng Energy's success is attributed to its integrated "coal-coke-chemical" business model, which allows it to convert raw material advantages into high-value products [8][9] - The company's olefin project has become a significant profit driver, with a production efficiency that exceeds industry averages [8][9] - Investment in technology and digital transformation has enhanced operational efficiency and reduced costs, contributing to its strong performance [9][11] Industry Challenges - The coal industry faces significant challenges from the dual carbon goals and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy sources [12][13] - The average utilization hours for thermal power plants have decreased, indicating a decline in coal demand [13][14] - The industry is experiencing a supply surplus, with total coal production capacity exceeding 4.5 billion tons per year, while consumption is projected at around 4.2 billion tons [13][14] Conclusion - The Q1 2025 performance of the coal industry reflects the urgent need for transformation amid evolving energy dynamics, with a clear divide emerging between companies that adapt and those that do not [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large energy sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stable performance of hydropower, the negative impact of wind conditions on short-term performance, and the differentiation in thermal power profitability [6][31][37] Hydropower Summary - Hydropower performance is expected to be stable with improved rainfall in 2024, contributing to an increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025. The national rainfall is projected to be 9% above normal, with hydropower utilization hours increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [20][21] - Major hydropower companies are expected to see performance align with expectations, with notable growth in Q1 2025 for companies like Changjiang Power and Huaneng Hydropower [25][26] - The report highlights the importance of local hydropower pricing advantages and the stability of the business model and policy environment as key factors for investment [28][29] Renewable Energy Summary - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are impacted by falling electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [31][36] - The report suggests focusing on long-term value in wind power operators despite current challenges, as the market is expected to favor those with sustainable development returns [36][37] Thermal Power Summary - The thermal power sector is experiencing improved profitability due to declining coal prices, although there is significant regional differentiation in performance [37] - The report notes that while northern thermal power operators are seeing better performance, regions like Guangdong are facing challenges due to market price declines [8][37] Investment Recommendations - The report provides three stock selection strategies: focusing on state-owned enterprises undergoing asset integration, selecting resilient hydropower assets, and identifying undervalued wind power operators [9][11] - Key recommended stocks include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuan Investment Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Wan Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [9]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and the China Securities Hong Kong 100 Energy Index (H100 Energy) reported at 2211.74 points [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong 100 Energy Index has seen a decline of 6.97% over the past month, 6.89% over the past three months, and 10.44% year-to-date [2] Industry Analysis - The China Securities Hong Kong 100 Energy Index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with fuel refining accounting for 48.23%, integrated oil and gas companies for 35.85%, and coal for 15.93% of the index [3] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with insurance and liquor sectors rising, while banking and semiconductor sectors had varied results, and the power sector weakened [1][4]. Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of CNY 293.04 billion, CNY 931.09 billion, and CNY 319.74 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 557 million, CNY 1.019 billion, and CNY 389 million [3]. - China Pacific Insurance rose by 2.04%, Ping An by 0.83%, and China Life by 2.41% [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu had market capitalizations of CNY 1,950.62 billion, CNY 249.58 billion, and CNY 502.40 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.656 billion, CNY 506 million, and CNY 1.114 billion [3]. - Kweichow Moutai increased by 0.37%, Wuliangye by 0.24%, and Shanxi Xinghuacun by 0.57% [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of CNY 243.10 billion, CNY 292.64 billion, and CNY 346.81 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 979 million, CNY 2.570 billion, and CNY 1.077 billion [3]. - Northern Huachuang rose by 0.92%, while Cambricon Technologies fell by 0.37% and Haiguang Information increased by 0.41% [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 196.10 billion, CNY 284.33 billion, and CNY 1,095.37 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.165 billion, CNY 192 million, and CNY 285 million [3]. - BYD increased by 2.08%, Great Wall Motors by 1.46%, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway decreased by 0.34% [3]. Power Sector - China Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and China Power had market capitalizations of CNY 713.74 billion, CNY 191.08 billion, and CNY 332.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.589 billion, CNY 405 million, and CNY 4.380 billion [4]. - China Nuclear Power rose by 2.43%, while China Yangtze Power fell by 1.12% [4]. Other Sectors - Various sectors including food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals showed diverse performances with notable market capitalizations and trading volumes [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are under pressure during the off-season, with a forecasted contraction in imports expected to support prices [1]. - The report emphasizes that domestic coal production is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in coking coal prices as demand increases in the peak season [1]. - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for stable operations and high dividends, while Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma are noted for their undervalued growth potential [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - New energy consumption limits for various industries, including coal, are set to take effect, potentially saving 24.52 million tons of standard coal annually [9]. - Coal production in major provinces like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has seen significant year-on-year growth, contributing to a record high in domestic coal output [9]. Price Trends - As of April 30, 2025, the prices for various grades of thermal coal have seen slight declines, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 thermal coal prices reported at 508, 570, and 650 CNY/ton respectively [1][10]. - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with key prices reported at 1380 CNY/ton for Shanxi's main coking coal [1][13]. Inventory and Demand - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.62% to 1.9614 million tons, while the outflow decreased by 1.14% to 1.9894 million tons [21]. - Port inventories decreased slightly to 31.035 million tons, reflecting a 0.21% drop [21]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen slightly, with average freight rates reported at 37.57 CNY/ton, marking a 0.31% increase [28]. - International shipping rates have also seen increases, particularly for coal from Indonesia and Australia [28]. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2027 [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 652 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.9%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.74%, up 1.36 percentage points [4][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 18.40 thousand tons/day (-6.21%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 9.30 thousand tons/day (+5.27%) [4][48] Inventory and Transportation - As of April 29, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 2.59% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a 0.77% increase [48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is showing an upward trend, indicating a potential increase in demand as the summer peak approaches [4][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]