Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, emphasizing a preference for value investments as the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [1]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Coal production in China showed a trend of high output in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline, with a total of 397.3 million tons produced from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - Coal imports decreased significantly, with a total of 38.8 million tons imported from January to October, representing an 11% year-on-year decline [2][24]. - The overall coal consumption remained resilient, with a total of approximately 4.24 billion tons consumed from January to October, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][44]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The coal price experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 CNY per ton respectively by November 28, 2025 [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance is maintained through policies that regulate production while ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts coal consumption to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, driven primarily by demand from the power and chemical sectors [5]. - It is anticipated that coal production will slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies and those showing signs of recovery from financial distress, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [5].

Group 1 - Daqian Ecological announced the resignation of Chairman Zhang Yuan due to personal reasons, affecting his roles in the board and strategic committee [1] - Daqian Ecological, established in October 1988, focuses on urban renewal, rural revitalization, and ecological restoration [1] Group 2 - Haili Biological plans to use up to 500 million yuan of idle funds to invest in financial products issued by banks, brokers, trusts, and fund companies [1] - Haili Biological, founded in July 1981, specializes in in vitro diagnostic reagents and oral tissue repair and regeneration materials [1] Group 3 - Xianglou New Materials' application for a private placement of shares has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - Xianglou New Materials, established in December 2005, is engaged in the research, production, and sales of customized precision stamping new materials [3] Group 4 - Zhuochuang Information has submitted an application for H-share listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Zhuochuang Information, founded in April 2004, provides market data monitoring, trading price evaluation, industry data analysis, and research [4] Group 5 - Zhongwei Company plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 626,150 shares, representing 1% of the total share capital [5] - Zhongwei Company, established in May 2004, focuses on the research, production, and sales of high-end semiconductor equipment and related products [5] Group 6 - Jiarong Technology intends to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement to acquire 100% of Hangzhou Lanran [6] - Jiarong Technology, founded in February 2005, specializes in membrane separation equipment and high-performance membrane components [6] Group 7 - Dameng Data's director and general manager Pi Yu has had his detention lifted by the local supervisory committee [7] - Dameng Data, established in November 2000, provides various database software, cloud computing, big data products, and related technical services [7] Group 8 - Huayang Co. has launched a 200-ton annual production project for high-performance carbon fiber [8] - Huayang Co., founded in December 1999, is involved in coal production, power generation, and renewable energy technologies [8] Group 9 - Saintno Biological's executives plan to collectively reduce their holdings by up to 37,600 shares, which is 0.024% of the total share capital [9] - Saintno Biological, established in July 2001, focuses on the research, production, and sales of peptide raw materials and formulations [9] Group 10 - *ST Dongyi is in the process of signing a comprehensive technical service agreement worth 635 million yuan [10] - *ST Dongyi, founded in November 1996, provides comprehensive home decoration services [11] Group 11 - Jiangxi Copper is attempting to acquire all shares of London-listed SolGold, with a recent offer of 26 pence per share [12] - Jiangxi Copper, established in January 1997, specializes in copper and gold mining, smelting, and processing [12] Group 12 - China Shenhua's subsidiary has successfully completed a 168-hour trial run of its power generation unit [13] - China Shenhua, founded in November 2004, is involved in coal and electricity production and sales [13] Group 13 - Baile Tianheng's subsidiary has received a milestone payment of 250 million USD from BMS [14] - Baile Tianheng, established in August 2006, focuses on innovative biopharmaceuticals and chemical preparations [14] Group 14 - Yulide's directors plan to reduce their holdings by up to 35,000 shares, representing 0.0313% of the total share capital [15] - Yulide, founded in December 2003, specializes in the research, production, and sales of testing and measuring instruments [15] Group 15 - Aters plans to establish joint ventures with its controlling shareholder to adjust its U.S. market operations [15] - Aters, established in April 2006, focuses on lithium-ion battery separator products and sterile packaging [15] Group 16 - Enjie Co. is planning to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares, leading to a stock suspension [16] - Enjie Co., founded in April 2006, specializes in lithium-ion battery separator products and sterile packaging [16] Group 17 - ST Tianrui's controlling shareholder is planning a change in company control, resulting in a stock suspension [16] - ST Tianrui, established in July 2006, focuses on analytical testing instruments and environmental governance [17]

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Industry News - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice for the "Artificial Intelligence + Energy" pilot program, calling for high-value application scenarios that leverage AI technology to achieve quantifiable goals such as cost reduction, efficiency improvement, carbon reduction, and safety assurance [2] - The largest gas-fired power plant in China, the No. 1 unit of the Zhejiang Anji Power Plant, has officially commenced operation, featuring the highest efficiency gas turbine in the country with an efficiency rate of 64.15% [2] - The newly completed 37.8 km gas pipeline in Southern Xinjiang enhances natural gas supply for the upcoming winter and spring seasons [3] - The "Long Electric into Shandong" project has completed all supporting main network framework constructions, enhancing electricity transmission capabilities [3] - The Sichuan Panjiang to Liangshan natural gas pipeline has officially started construction with a total investment of 9.9217 million yuan, designed to transport 630 million cubic meters of gas annually [3] - The first pumped storage project in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been fully operational, supporting power supply and green transition in the region [3] - The world's first 660 MW ultra-supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler has passed authoritative evaluation, marking a significant breakthrough in clean power generation technology in China [3] Corporate News - China Shenhua has announced that the No. 3 unit of the Beihai Phase II project has successfully completed a 168-hour trial run and has been transferred to commercial operation, with a designed coal consumption of 266.86 g/kWh [6] - China Datang has successfully put into operation the country's first 1500°C single-shaft heavy-duty gas turbine, marking a significant milestone in domestic energy generation capabilities [6] - Canada plans to build a new oil pipeline aimed at reducing dependence on the U.S. market and enhancing energy exports to Asia, with a capacity to transport at least 1 million barrels of low-emission asphalt daily [5]

Major Events - Enjie Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of Zhongke Hualian and will suspend trading starting December 1, 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding the transaction [4] - ST Tianrui's controlling shareholder is planning a change in company control, leading to a trading suspension starting December 1, 2025, expected to last no more than two trading days [5] - Jiarong Technology intends to raise no more than 1 billion yuan through a private placement and acquire 100% of Hangzhou Lanran [6][7] - Baili Tianheng's wholly-owned subsidiary received a milestone payment of 250 million USD from BMS related to a collaboration agreement [8] - Jiangxi Copper is planning to acquire shares of the overseas listed company SolGold Plc, with a non-binding cash offer of 26 pence per share, currently in the informal offer stage [9] - China Shenhua's subsidiary successfully completed a 168-hour trial run of its power generation unit, marking a significant milestone in its expansion project [10] - ST Dongyi faces the risk of bankruptcy due to unsuccessful restructuring efforts, which could lead to stock delisting [11] - Huayang Co., Ltd. has launched a high-performance carbon fiber project with an annual production capacity of 200 tons, applicable in various high-tech fields [12] - Dameng Data's general manager has had his detention lifted by the local authorities [13] Shareholding Changes - Zhongwei Company plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1% through block trading, equating to approximately 6.26 million shares [14] - Yulide's directors plan to collectively reduce their holdings by no more than 0.0313%, totaling up to 35,000 shares [15] - Shengnuo Bio's vice president and a board member plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.024%, totaling up to 37,600 shares [16] Major Contracts - Aoride plans to sign a comprehensive technical service agreement with Company X, with a total contract value of approximately 635 million yuan [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has successfully crossed the fourth target, and the logic for price stability remains intact. The current dynamics are influenced by supply contraction and a surge in demand due to seasonal heating needs [3][4] - The report indicates that both thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process involves several stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [4][13] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are still at historical lows, providing room for a rebound, especially with the onset of the heating season and supply-side policies [5][14] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Price Trends - As of November 28, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 816 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease from the previous week. The price at Guangzhou Port is 855 CNY/ton, having reached the target of 750 CNY for coal-power profitability [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant rebounds, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1670 CNY/ton, up from 1230 CNY/ton in July, marking a 48.4% increase [3][4] Investment Logic - The report outlines that the price of thermal coal will follow a recovery process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profitability balance for coal and power companies, with an ideal target price of around 750 CNY for 2025 [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY to 2064 CNY depending on market conditions [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][14] - Specific companies recommended include Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic, 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend logic, 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity, and 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the demand during the peak season remains resilient, and coal prices are expected to rise after adjustments [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to increased safety and environmental inspections, while demand is bolstered by winter heating needs, leading to an anticipated rebound in coal prices [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and TBEA, as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huaibei Mining [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [7]. - The Longwanggou Coal Mine's capacity replacement plan has been approved, marking a significant development in coal production capacity [7]. - Shanxi has established 281 green mines, enhancing the province's coal production capabilities [7]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with prices reported at 619, 713, and 816 RMB/ton for different grades [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown stability with minor declines, such as the price for low-sulfur coking coal at 1580 RMB/ton [2][11]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures settled at 63.2 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase [14]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 2.0511 million tons, while the outflow increased to 1.9854 million tons, indicating a supply-demand adjustment [18]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 26.671 million tons, marking a 2.65% increase [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have decreased to 42.62 RMB/ton, a drop of 9.84% [27]. - International shipping rates have seen an increase, with Indonesian coal prices rising to 10.36 USD/ton [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating stock prices and market capitalizations, such as China Shenhua at 41.14 RMB with a market cap of 817.4 billion RMB [33].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (01088) announced that its subsidiary, Guoneng Guangtou Beihai Power Co., Ltd., successfully completed the trial operation of Unit 3 of the Beihai Phase II expansion project, marking its transition to commercial operation [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Beihai Phase II project is located in the Tieshan Port area of Beihai City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and involves the construction of two 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical reheating coal-fired power generation units [1] - The project is a key initiative in the energy development "14th Five-Year Plan" of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, utilizing advanced technologies such as ultra-clean coal power generation, deep peak regulation, and flexible operation [1] - The design coal consumption for power supply is 266.86g/kWh, with zero emissions for wastewater and solid waste, and ultra-low emissions for air pollutants [1] Group 2: Future Developments - Construction of Unit 4 of the Beihai Phase II project is progressing steadily, with plans for it to be operational by December 2025 [1] - Once fully operational, the Beihai Phase II project will optimize the regional power supply structure, enhance the safety and stability of the power grid, and effectively meet the long-term load growth demands of the region [1] - The project will provide significant support for the construction of the new western land-sea corridor and the socio-economic development of the region [1]

Company Focus - Enjie Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongke Hualian, leading to a stock suspension [2] - Canadian Solar Inc. and its controlling shareholder plan to establish a joint venture to adjust their U.S. market operations [3] - Jiarong Technology intends to acquire 100% of Hangzhou Lanan, with stock resuming trading [3] Equity Changes - ST Tianrui's controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, resulting in stock suspension [4] Shareholding Changes & Buybacks - Shanghai Chuangtou intends to reduce its stake in Zhongwei Company by no more than 1% [5] Operations & Performance - China Shenhua's subsidiary successfully completed a 168-hour trial run of its power generation unit, transitioning to commercial operation [6] - Baillie Tianheng received a milestone payment of $250 million from Bristol-Myers Squibb for the iza-bren project [7] - Jiangxi Copper is in the informal offer stage to acquire shares of SolGold Plc [8] - Aorede plans to sign a 635 million yuan computing power procurement agreement [9] - Maiwei Bio's clinical research for 9MW1911 shows significant reductions in acute exacerbation rates for COPD patients [10] - Huayang Co. has launched a high-performance carbon fiber project with an annual production capacity of 200 tons [10] Financing & Capital Increase - Ganfeng Lithium plans to issue $100 million in exchangeable notes to the China-Africa Development Fund [11] Stock Price Fluctuations - Tongyu Communications confirmed normal operations amid stock price fluctuations [12] - Rongji Software reported normal operations despite stock price declines [13] Other - Xianglou New Materials' application for a specific stock issuance has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15] - JinkoSolar received a prepayment of 220 million yuan for a fire incident at its battery workshop [15] - Dameng Data's general manager has had his detention lifted [15] - Dongpeng Beverage has received approval from the CSRC for its overseas listing [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "看好" (Overweight) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of seasonal demand for coal, suggesting that coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [2] - It notes that while there has been a decrease in the prices of thermal coal, the demand from power plants remains strong due to cold weather [2] - The report emphasizes the impact of regulatory inspections on coal production, which is expected to limit overall output [2] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [8] - A significant coal mine in Inner Mongolia has received approval for a capacity replacement plan, enhancing production capabilities [8] - Shanxi province has established 281 green mines, contributing to sustainable coal production [8] Price Trends of Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with specific prices reported for various grades [9] - The report indicates that the price index for thermal coal remains stable, with some fluctuations noted [9][10] - Coking coal prices are also showing a mixed trend, with some prices decreasing while others remain stable [12] Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while outflow has increased, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [20] - Coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has risen, reflecting changes in demand and supply [20] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen an increase [30] Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]