风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 新城控股主营业务为房地产开发与商业运营，业务涵盖住宅地产开发、商业综合体运营等领域。公司项 目主要分布在长三角区域及重点省会城市。 2025年8月7日主力资金净流入4704.04万元，近五个交易日累计净流入5611.45万元。 截至2025年8月7日收盘，新城控股股价报15.81元，较前一交易日上涨0.92元。当日开盘价为14.88元， 最高触及15.82元，最低下探14.84元，成交量为21.07万手，成交金额达3.26亿元。 ...

房地产行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600515 | 海南机场 | -0.77 | 1.28 | -13932.13 | | 600246 | 万通发展 | -2.80 | 2.37 | -7363.05 | | 002305 | *ST南置 | -3.07 | 6.48 | -4376.40 | | 600684 | 珠江股份 | -0.44 | 3.13 | -2235.64 | | 600895 | 张江高科 | 4.64 | 8.95 | -1903.63 | | 000897 | 津滨发展 | 5.13 | 5.66 | -1821.65 | | 600082 | 海泰发展 | -3.23 | 5.02 | -1698.99 | | 000886 | 海南高速 | 0.00 | 1.86 | -1508.08 | | 600675 | 中华企业 | 4.05 | 1.12 | -1498.27 | | 000656 | *ST金科 | -0.71 | 0 ...

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 新城控股属于房地产开发板块，业务涵盖住宅开发、商业地产运营等领域。公司总部位于江苏，是国内 具有一定规模的综合性房地产企业。 数据显示，新城控股8月6日主力资金净流出323.62万元，但近五日主力资金整体呈现净流入状态，累计 净流入1108.94万元。 截至2025年8月6日15时，新城控股股价报14.89元，较前一交易日下跌0.06元，跌幅0.40%。当日开盘价 为14.95元，最高触及15.00元，最低下探至14.79元，成交量为10.9万手，成交额1.62亿元。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Xincheng Holdings Company Overview - **Company**: Xincheng Holdings - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance - Xincheng Holdings has shown strong stock performance in 2023, achieving approximately 30% absolute return and 29% excess return by early August, significantly outperforming the Shenwan Real Estate Index [2][5] - The stock's performance was driven by short-term policy expectations and a liquidity easing environment from late June to late July [2] Valuation Trends - The company's valuation increased from 0.41 times PB at the beginning of the year to a peak of 0.58 times PB, indicating a positive overall trend despite some short-term corrections [2][6] - Market focus has shifted from concerns about defaults to expectations of performance release, suggesting further upside potential for the company [2][6] Future Performance Expectations - Market expectations for future performance release are centered on three main factors: stability in commercial operations, reduction in impairment scale in development business, and overall operational performance meeting or exceeding market expectations [2][7] - The commercial business outperformed guidance in the first half of the year, providing confidence for future performance releases [2][8] Debt and Financial Pressure - Xincheng Holdings' interest-bearing debt includes approximately 53.7 billion RMB from non-affiliated debts (average financing cost of 5.92%) and 6.4 billion RMB from inter-affiliate payables (average financing cost of 7.94%) [2][13] - The company has faced significant debt repayment pressures from 2022 to 2024, but financial conditions have improved due to policy support and company efforts [3] - Interest expenses are expected to remain high in 2025 and 2026, with potential scenarios indicating a decrease of 160 million RMB or an increase of 420 million RMB in interest expenses by 2026 compared to 2024 [3][19] Financing Channels - The company has various financing channels, including equity (e.g., Hong Kong stock placements, project company equity contributions) and secured instruments (e.g., operating property loans, domestic medium-term notes) [3][15] - High-cost channels like USD bond renewals could see new parts priced 700-800 basis points higher than existing parts [3][16] Financial Risk Management - Key financial risks include the guarantee company's credit enhancement issues and the financial pressure from high-cost USD renewals [3][17] - The company needs to manage interest expenses effectively to avoid eroding profits and ensure financial health [3][20] Asset Impairment and Valuation Recovery - The core logic for valuation recovery has shifted to signs of accelerated performance release, focusing on commercial operations and development impairment pressures [3][22] - The reasonable equity value based on NAV calculations is estimated to be around 40 to 45 billion RMB [3][22] Challenges Ahead - The company faces challenges in repaying two USD bonds and five domestic medium-term notes over the next year and a half, necessitating the use of low-cost financing channels [3][23] - Effective control of inventory impairment provisions is crucial to mitigate the impact of declining property prices [3][23] Interest Expense Management - The company anticipates that interest expenses could decrease in the most optimistic scenario for 2026, but could also increase significantly in a pessimistic scenario [3][24] - Measures to reduce interest expenses include further sales from development business and refinancing high-cost loans [3][25] Asset Management Strategies - The company aims to activate on-balance sheet development assets to address old debt issues and considers using REITs to improve leverage [3][26] USD Bond Issuance Stance - Current conditions make USD bond issuance less favorable, with recent issuance showing high yields [3][27] - The company will assess the feasibility of USD bond issuance based on specific market conditions [3][29] Impact of Financing Actions on Stock Price - Upcoming debt repayment situations and the ability to secure low-cost financing will significantly influence stock price movements [3][28] Additional Important Insights - The company’s financial health and future growth are closely tied to its ability to manage debt repayment and interest expenses effectively while navigating market conditions [3][17][22]

来源：金融界 2025年8月4日，上海清算所网站披露公告，新城控股集团股份有限公司于2025年7月31日至8月1日发行 2025年度第一期中期票据（中市协注[2025]MTN402号） ，债券简称25新城控股MTN001 ，期限5年期 ，起息日2025年8月4日 ，兑付日2030年8月4日 ，计划发行总额100,000万元，实际发行总额100,000万元 ，发行利率2.68% ，发行价100（百元面值） 。合规申购家数10家，合规申购金额228,000万元 ，最高 申购价位3.5% ，最低申购价位2.5% ，有效申购家数4家，有效申购金额123,000万元 。簿记管理人、主 承销商为中信证券股份有限公司，联席主承销商为中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司、招商银行股份有限 公司。本期中期票据发行基础规模人民币0亿元，发行金额上限人民币10亿元，其中不超过5亿元募集资 金拟用于发行人及下属子公司补充流动资金，剩余募集资金拟用于普通商品房住宅项目开发建设、购回 及偿还发行人及发行人股东新城发展控股有限公司境外美元债券等法律法规允许的用途。 ...

新城控股发行10亿元5年期担保中票，票息定在2.68%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development sector and real estate services sector [10][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales in 44 cities, with a week-on-week increase of 22%, while second-hand home sales saw a slight decline of 5% [2]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in 44 cities are down 6% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales are up 14% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory reduction, noting a 0.4% decrease in new home inventory in 21 key cities [33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.75%, with the real estate development sector down 3.43% [3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market, with new home sales showing signs of recovery while second-hand sales are declining [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.34 - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.32 - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.08 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 17.07 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 12.73 - China Overseas Property (2669 HK) with a target price of 7.74 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 [11][43]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Data - New home sales in July across 44 cities decreased by 19% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down 26% [15]. - The report notes that second-hand home sales in 22 cities decreased by 6% in July, but year-to-date, they are up 14% [24]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of July 27, the inventory of new homes in 21 key cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 14% [33]. - The report indicates that the de-stocking speed in first-tier cities is 54 weeks, while second-tier cities are at 87 weeks [33]. Recommendations and Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of key city markets and the valuation recovery of companies with strong cash flow and performance [4][42]. - The report suggests that property management companies are also likely to see valuation recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][36]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but it will take approximately two years for residents' balance sheets to recover, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [3][36]. - It is expected that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and residents' financial health [3][36]. - The introduction of new policies for housing will create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][36]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 cities increased by 17.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities up by 18.3% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 2.7% [4][7]. - In July, the transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.3% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 56.2% [7][8]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a current available residential area of 89.088 million square meters [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized high-quality urban renewal and the implementation of urban renewal actions to promote the healthy development of the real estate market [29][32]. - The Ministry of Finance supports the construction of a new model for real estate development and the implementation of urban renewal actions [29][32]. - Local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including policies for public rental housing and adjustments to housing provident fund policies [29][33]. Company Dynamics - The report notes that Joy City Real Estate plans to privatize, intending to cancel 4.73 billion shares, which accounts for 33.24% of its total shares [3][36]. - Lujiazui reported a 33.91% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 6.598 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.87% to 815 million yuan [36]. - New City Holdings issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at a record low interest rate of 2.68% for five years [36].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued its first medium-term notes for 2025, indicating strong market demand and confidence in the company's financial stability [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance scale of the medium-term notes is 1 billion yuan [1] - The subscription multiple was 2.28 times, reflecting robust investor interest [1] - The notes have a maturity period of 5 years and a coupon rate of 2.68% [1] Group 2: Credit Ratings - China Chengxin International assigned a dual AAA rating to both the issuer and the current debt issue, highlighting the company's strong creditworthiness [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management [4][5]. Core Insights - The sales performance of real estate companies in July 2025 showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23% in sales amount and 26.6% in sales area. Cumulatively, the first seven months of 2025 saw an 18.4% decline in sales amount compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the sales market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities. It suggests that the real estate market will exhibit a "structurally strong + overall weak" pattern moving forward [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that while the broad housing demand has bottomed out, the recovery of residents' balance sheets will take approximately two years, which will delay the expected positive cycle in price and volume [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (18 billion), China Merchants Shekou (15.6 billion), and Vanke (13.5 billion). The threshold for the top three has decreased from 15.9 billion in the same month last year to 13.5 billion this year [4][5]. - The cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2025 were led by Poly Developments (163.2 billion), China Overseas (132 billion), and China Resources (123.6 billion), with significant year-on-year declines for most companies [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, China Resources Land, and Jianfa Holdings. It also suggests monitoring companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao [4][5]. - For undervalued recovery companies, the report highlights New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Overseas, Longfor Group, and Huafa Group as potential investment opportunities [4][5].