Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued $160 million of senior secured notes, signaling a strong recovery in its financing capabilities and enhancing confidence in private real estate companies [1][2] Group 1: Financing Activities - New City Holdings issued $160 million of senior secured notes with a 2-year term and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - This is the second dollar bond issuance by New City this year, following a $300 million senior unsecured bond issued in June, marking a significant breakthrough in the offshore capital market for private real estate firms [1] - The proceeds from the recent bond issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for daily operations, indicating a focus on liquidity management [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported revenue of 22.1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.85%, up 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The commercial segment generated total revenue of 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with property leasing and management contributing significantly to overall profitability [2] - The gross margin for the property leasing and management business reached 71.20%, indicating a strong performance in high-margin commercial operations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The successful issuance of dollar bonds is seen as a positive signal for the market, potentially restoring confidence in private real estate companies and alleviating liquidity pressures in the industry [1] - Analysts from Southwest Securities have initiated coverage on New City Holdings, highlighting the resilience and operational efficiency of its commercial segment, and have assigned a "buy" rating based on the company's solid profit and cash flow foundation [2]

Group 1 - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) surged 4% on September 24, reaching a new high for the year, with a trading volume exceeding 54 million CNY [1] - The ETF's price reached 0.705 CNY, reflecting a 3.98% increase, with a trading volume of 1.17 million shares [2] - Key stocks in the ETF, such as Shanghai Lingang and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, hit the daily limit, while several others, including China Merchants Shekou and Vanke A, rose over 2% [2] Group 2 - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with residential investment down by 11.9%, but new home transactions in 68 cities showed a year-on-year increase [3] - The total transaction area for real estate is stabilizing at 1.5 billion square meters, despite a decline in new home sales, indicating that overall demand has bottomed out [3] - The contribution of the real estate sector to the economy has decreased from 18% in 2012-2020 to an estimated 11% in 2024, reflecting a significant reduction in the industry's weight in the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - New City Development (01030) announced that its subsidiary, New City Global Limited, plans to issue guaranteed senior notes denominated in US dollars, backed by the company and New City Holdings (601155) [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuer, the company, and New City Holdings have entered into a purchase agreement with several initial buyers for the issuance and sale of senior notes totaling $160 million, with a maturity date in 2027 and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - The total proceeds from the note issuance are expected to be approximately $157 million [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the note issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to issue guaranteed senior notes valued in US dollars, backed by the company and its parent, New City Holdings, to raise funds for debt repayment and general corporate purposes [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The subsidiary, New City Global Limited, intends to issue senior notes with a total principal amount of $160 million, maturing in 2027, with an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - The total proceeds from the note issuance are expected to be approximately $157 million [1] Group 2: Underwriters and Agreements - The company has entered into a purchase agreement with several initial buyers, including Haitong International Securities, Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong), and Citigroup Global Markets [1] - Other participating underwriters include CITIC Bank International, DBS Bank, Longstone Capital Management, and Songgang International Securities Group [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the note issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes [1]

发行人及公司拟将建议票据发行所得款项净额用于偿还现有债务及用于一般企业用途。 新城发展(01030)发布公告，公司全资子公司新城环球有限公司建议进行由公司及新城控股（601155） 担保以美元计值的优先担保票据的国际发售，并将向机构投资者开展一连串推介会。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate development sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binhai Group, while "Hold" is given to companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development [6][35][60]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.85, with a historical percentile of 31.46% as of September 19, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1][11]. - The property service sector has a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 47.78, with a historical percentile of 75.95%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to historical averages [2][38]. - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to increased transaction volumes in the new housing market, particularly in Shanghai, where transaction intensity increased by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][70]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector - As of September 19, 2025, the real estate development sector has seen a 5.2% increase in stock prices from September 1 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.05 percentage points [1][29]. - Key companies in the A-share market with the highest stock price increases include Binhai Group (+34.68%), New Town Holdings (+31.77%), and Huafa Group (+0.99%) [1][31]. - In the H-share market, China Jinmao (+63.25%), Jianfa International Group (+49.68%), and China Overseas Hongyang Group (+48.88%) led the gains [1][31]. Property Service Sector - The property service sector experienced a 4.1% increase from September 1 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.97 percentage points [2][49]. - The top-performing A-share companies in the property service sector include Nandu Property (+67.33%), New Dazheng (+46.07%), and China Merchants Jinling (+14.70%) [2][55]. - In the H-share market, the leading companies were China Resources Vientiane Life (+52.36%), Jianfa Property (+42.22%), and Greentown Service (+35.34%) [2][55]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Since August 2025, favorable policies have been introduced, including measures in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have significantly boosted new housing transactions [3][68]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Shanghai surged by 62.5% following the policy changes, indicating a strong market response [4][70]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with core cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [5][79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate sector [10] Core Insights - The "two-part pricing" method effectively explains the valuation logic and results of real estate stocks, focusing on inventory structure and the proportion of inefficient inventory [2][8] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the market have provided some uplift to market expectations, but marginal downward pressure has increased since April, indicating a higher probability of further easing policies [4] - The industry appears to have passed the rapid decline phase in volume and price, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [4] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.13% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.58%, ranking 8th out of 32 sectors [5][13] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has risen by 12.76%, with a relative underperformance of -1.65% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 19th out of 32 sectors [5][13] Policy Developments - Chongqing is promoting healthy housing consumption through various measures, including financial support for affordable housing and optimizing personal housing loan rates [6][15] - Shanghai has adjusted property tax policies, exempting first-time homebuyers with residence permits for over three years from property tax [6][15] Sales Trends - The transaction volume of new homes in 37 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.2%, while second-hand homes improved with a 19.4% increase [7] - As of September 19, new home transaction volume in 37 cities increased by 5.2% month-on-month, while second-hand homes rose by 29.1% [7] Valuation Insights - The valuation of development real estate stocks varies significantly, primarily reflecting inventory quality, impairment levels, and new land acquisition capabilities [2][8] - Efficient inventory and new land acquisitions are critical for supporting sales levels and profitability, influencing both the decrement and increment in valuations [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [9][42]. Core Insights - Recent data indicates a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 44 cities rising by 14% week-on-week [1][12]. - The inventory of new homes in 21 key cities has slightly decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, while the second-hand housing listings have increased by 0.1% compared to the previous week [1][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes and prices in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery for companies with resources in these areas [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the real estate development sector rose by 0.71% [2]. - The report notes a year-to-date decline of 6% in new housing transaction area across 44 cities, contrasting with a 14% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - Recommended companies include: - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.42 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.40 - Greentown Services (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 - Wanwu Cloud (2602 HK) with a target price of 32.29 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 - Jianfa International Group (1908 HK) with a target price of 21.60 - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) with a target price of 18.05 - China Resources Mixc Life (1209 HK) with a target price of 46.60 [3][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - As of September 14, the inventory of new homes in 21 cities has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [32]. - The second-hand housing listings in 20 sample cities have increased to approximately 2.484 million units, up 0.1% from the previous week and 8.7% from the end of last year [35][1]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the new housing sales area in 44 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 8% from September 1 to 19, with first-tier cities seeing a 22% increase [12]. - The second-hand housing sales area in 22 cities has increased by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up 35% [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rally in the A-share market for real estate stocks, with notable gains for companies such as Shahe Co., which hit the daily limit, and others like Binhai Group and Electronic City rising over 5% [1] - The Shanghai municipal government has announced an optimization adjustment to the pilot property tax policy, providing tax incentives for eligible high-level talents and urgently needed talents in key industries when purchasing new homes in the city [1] - The policy also extends benefits to individuals who have held a residence permit in Shanghai for over three years and are working and living in the city, aiming to stimulate the housing market [1]

Market Overview - On September 18, the real estate development sector fell by 2.11%, with Wolong New Energy leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the real estate sector included: - Shouke Co., Ltd. (600376) with a closing price of 8.07, up 9.95% [1] - Leijiang Holdings (600162) at 2.88, up 9.92% [1] - China New Group (601512) at 10.33, up 8.51% [1] - Major decliners included: - Wolong New Energy (600173) at 8.50, down 8.70% [2] - Rongsheng Development (002146) at 1.82, down 8.54% [2] - Hualian Holdings (000036) at 4.41, down 5.16% [2] Capital Flow - The real estate development sector experienced a net outflow of 1.258 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.278 billion yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Wan Tong Development (600246) had a net inflow of 640.96 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Su Ning Global (000718) saw a net outflow of 70.88 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China New Group (601512) had a net inflow of 40.21 million yuan from institutional investors [3]