Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in both revenue and profitability, with major listed companies reporting substantial losses and a challenging outlook for the near future [1][2][4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, typical listed real estate companies achieved total revenue of 12,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, while operating costs were 11,454 billion yuan, down 16% [1]. - The gross profit for these companies was 1,414 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit loss for the industry expanded to 2,762 billion yuan in 2023, further increasing to 3,397 billion yuan in 2024, and reaching 902 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Profitability Ratios - The overall gross margin for the industry in the first half of 2025 was 10.87%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, while the net margin was -7.45% [4]. - Excluding companies that have faced financial distress, the gross margin for 27 stable firms was 15.09%, up 2 percentage points from 2024, with a net margin of 1.71%, indicating a recovery from previous losses [4]. Factors Affecting Profitability - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land acquisition costs, increased sales pressure, and asset impairment provisions, which have negatively impacted current profit performance [4][7]. - Companies are resorting to discount promotions to boost sales, leading to a situation where revenue increases do not translate into profit growth [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry is at a turning point, with a shift in policy focus from deleveraging to risk prevention, and a change in demand dynamics from broad increases to differentiation [7]. - Major companies like Longfor and Vanke express cautious optimism, highlighting the ongoing demand for quality housing in core urban areas despite recent price declines [7][8]. Strategic Planning of Key Companies - China Resources Land plans to maintain an annual opening pace of around six shopping centers, with a focus on public REITs to enhance asset value [9]. - China Merchants Shekou aims to optimize asset structure and enhance operational capabilities through a new asset management model [9]. - Longfor Group anticipates a 10% growth in its commercial sector and plans to open approximately ten new projects annually in the coming years [9]. - New City Holdings is focused on enhancing its commercial operations and leveraging financial policies to improve its capital structure [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase expanding. The transaction area for new homes reached 1.87 million square meters, up 11.8% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth by 20.6 percentage points [5][15][24] - The Shanghai government has optimized the property tax policy for non-resident buyers, allowing for a tax exemption on 60 square meters per person for families purchasing second or more homes, effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 13 to September 19, 2025, the new home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased month-on-month. The inventory area for new homes increased month-on-month, and the de-stocking cycle rose [15] - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 37.8% year-on-year. The new home transaction area was 1.87 million square meters, with similar increases [16][24] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.404 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [27][39] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.115 million square meters, down 10.9% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 14.33 billion yuan, down 49.1% month-on-month and 73.1% year-on-year [60][64] - The average land price per square meter was 1,289.5 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 42.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.5% [61][66] 3. Company Announcements and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 8.71 billion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The total repayment amount was 15.8 billion yuan, up 43.5% month-on-month and 102.6% year-on-year [54][56] - The report highlights key companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property as potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued $160 million of senior secured notes, signaling a strong recovery in its financing capabilities and enhancing confidence in private real estate companies [1][2] Group 1: Financing Activities - New City Holdings issued $160 million of senior secured notes with a 2-year term and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - This is the second dollar bond issuance by New City this year, following a $300 million senior unsecured bond issued in June, marking a significant breakthrough in the offshore capital market for private real estate firms [1] - The proceeds from the recent bond issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for daily operations, indicating a focus on liquidity management [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported revenue of 22.1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.85%, up 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The commercial segment generated total revenue of 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with property leasing and management contributing significantly to overall profitability [2] - The gross margin for the property leasing and management business reached 71.20%, indicating a strong performance in high-margin commercial operations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The successful issuance of dollar bonds is seen as a positive signal for the market, potentially restoring confidence in private real estate companies and alleviating liquidity pressures in the industry [1] - Analysts from Southwest Securities have initiated coverage on New City Holdings, highlighting the resilience and operational efficiency of its commercial segment, and have assigned a "buy" rating based on the company's solid profit and cash flow foundation [2]

Group 1 - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) surged 4% on September 24, reaching a new high for the year, with a trading volume exceeding 54 million CNY [1] - The ETF's price reached 0.705 CNY, reflecting a 3.98% increase, with a trading volume of 1.17 million shares [2] - Key stocks in the ETF, such as Shanghai Lingang and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, hit the daily limit, while several others, including China Merchants Shekou and Vanke A, rose over 2% [2] Group 2 - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with residential investment down by 11.9%, but new home transactions in 68 cities showed a year-on-year increase [3] - The total transaction area for real estate is stabilizing at 1.5 billion square meters, despite a decline in new home sales, indicating that overall demand has bottomed out [3] - The contribution of the real estate sector to the economy has decreased from 18% in 2012-2020 to an estimated 11% in 2024, reflecting a significant reduction in the industry's weight in the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - New City Development (01030) announced that its subsidiary, New City Global Limited, plans to issue guaranteed senior notes denominated in US dollars, backed by the company and New City Holdings (601155) [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuer, the company, and New City Holdings have entered into a purchase agreement with several initial buyers for the issuance and sale of senior notes totaling $160 million, with a maturity date in 2027 and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - The total proceeds from the note issuance are expected to be approximately $157 million [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the note issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to issue guaranteed senior notes valued in US dollars, backed by the company and its parent, New City Holdings, to raise funds for debt repayment and general corporate purposes [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The subsidiary, New City Global Limited, intends to issue senior notes with a total principal amount of $160 million, maturing in 2027, with an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - The total proceeds from the note issuance are expected to be approximately $157 million [1] Group 2: Underwriters and Agreements - The company has entered into a purchase agreement with several initial buyers, including Haitong International Securities, Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong), and Citigroup Global Markets [1] - Other participating underwriters include CITIC Bank International, DBS Bank, Longstone Capital Management, and Songgang International Securities Group [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the note issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes [1]

发行人及公司拟将建议票据发行所得款项净额用于偿还现有债务及用于一般企业用途。 新城发展(01030)发布公告，公司全资子公司新城环球有限公司建议进行由公司及新城控股（601155） 担保以美元计值的优先担保票据的国际发售，并将向机构投资者开展一连串推介会。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate development sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binhai Group, while "Hold" is given to companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development [6][35][60]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.85, with a historical percentile of 31.46% as of September 19, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1][11]. - The property service sector has a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 47.78, with a historical percentile of 75.95%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to historical averages [2][38]. - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to increased transaction volumes in the new housing market, particularly in Shanghai, where transaction intensity increased by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][70]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector - As of September 19, 2025, the real estate development sector has seen a 5.2% increase in stock prices from September 1 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.05 percentage points [1][29]. - Key companies in the A-share market with the highest stock price increases include Binhai Group (+34.68%), New Town Holdings (+31.77%), and Huafa Group (+0.99%) [1][31]. - In the H-share market, China Jinmao (+63.25%), Jianfa International Group (+49.68%), and China Overseas Hongyang Group (+48.88%) led the gains [1][31]. Property Service Sector - The property service sector experienced a 4.1% increase from September 1 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.97 percentage points [2][49]. - The top-performing A-share companies in the property service sector include Nandu Property (+67.33%), New Dazheng (+46.07%), and China Merchants Jinling (+14.70%) [2][55]. - In the H-share market, the leading companies were China Resources Vientiane Life (+52.36%), Jianfa Property (+42.22%), and Greentown Service (+35.34%) [2][55]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Since August 2025, favorable policies have been introduced, including measures in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have significantly boosted new housing transactions [3][68]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Shanghai surged by 62.5% following the policy changes, indicating a strong market response [4][70]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with core cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [5][79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate sector [10] Core Insights - The "two-part pricing" method effectively explains the valuation logic and results of real estate stocks, focusing on inventory structure and the proportion of inefficient inventory [2][8] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the market have provided some uplift to market expectations, but marginal downward pressure has increased since April, indicating a higher probability of further easing policies [4] - The industry appears to have passed the rapid decline phase in volume and price, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [4] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.13% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.58%, ranking 8th out of 32 sectors [5][13] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has risen by 12.76%, with a relative underperformance of -1.65% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 19th out of 32 sectors [5][13] Policy Developments - Chongqing is promoting healthy housing consumption through various measures, including financial support for affordable housing and optimizing personal housing loan rates [6][15] - Shanghai has adjusted property tax policies, exempting first-time homebuyers with residence permits for over three years from property tax [6][15] Sales Trends - The transaction volume of new homes in 37 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 4.2%, while second-hand homes improved with a 19.4% increase [7] - As of September 19, new home transaction volume in 37 cities increased by 5.2% month-on-month, while second-hand homes rose by 29.1% [7] Valuation Insights - The valuation of development real estate stocks varies significantly, primarily reflecting inventory quality, impairment levels, and new land acquisition capabilities [2][8] - Efficient inventory and new land acquisitions are critical for supporting sales levels and profitability, influencing both the decrement and increment in valuations [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [9][42]. Core Insights - Recent data indicates a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 44 cities rising by 14% week-on-week [1][12]. - The inventory of new homes in 21 key cities has slightly decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, while the second-hand housing listings have increased by 0.1% compared to the previous week [1][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes and prices in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery for companies with resources in these areas [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the real estate development sector rose by 0.71% [2]. - The report notes a year-to-date decline of 6% in new housing transaction area across 44 cities, contrasting with a 14% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - Recommended companies include: - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.42 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.40 - Greentown Services (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 - Wanwu Cloud (2602 HK) with a target price of 32.29 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 - Jianfa International Group (1908 HK) with a target price of 21.60 - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) with a target price of 18.05 - China Resources Mixc Life (1209 HK) with a target price of 46.60 [3][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - As of September 14, the inventory of new homes in 21 cities has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [32]. - The second-hand housing listings in 20 sample cities have increased to approximately 2.484 million units, up 0.1% from the previous week and 8.7% from the end of last year [35][1]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the new housing sales area in 44 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 8% from September 1 to 19, with first-tier cities seeing a 22% increase [12]. - The second-hand housing sales area in 22 cities has increased by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up 35% [22].