Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector experienced a collective decline, with all 43 listed brokerages falling on January 8, indicating a potential correction after a rapid increase in stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 8, the brokerage index dropped by 2.7%, with notable declines including Huayin Securities hitting the daily limit down, Hu'an Securities and Huatai Securities falling over 5%, and several others like Xinyi Securities and Guotai Haitong dropping over 4% [4][5]. - Huayin Securities closed at 16.92 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.28%, and a total market capitalization of 45.684 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The trading data showed that Huayin Securities was heavily traded, with a net sell of 205 million yuan, indicating significant investor activity despite the price drop [5][6]. - Major selling came from Guotai Haitong and Aijian Securities, while buying interest was noted from Dongfang Securities and China Galaxy Securities [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in the brokerage sector is a normal phenomenon following rapid price increases, with a long-term upward trend expected in a slow bull market [5]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see improved performance due to factors such as enhanced industry structure, balanced internal business growth, and increased return on equity (ROE) [8]. - By 2025, the brokerage sector is projected to achieve significant earnings growth, driven by a booming capital market and increased brokerage and credit business performance [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" in 2026, driven by positive signals from policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Spring Market Logic - Three main supporting factors for the spring market include: 1. Increased expectations for overseas liquidity easing, particularly with the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair, leading to hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][9]. 2. Continuous inflow of incremental funds, exemplified by over 96 billion yuan net inflow into the A500 ETF since December, alongside insurance capital's demand for "opening red" allocations [2][9]. 3. Strengthened policy expectations, with the government emphasizing the need to stabilize investment and improve the real estate market outlook, indicating a trend towards a "transformation bull" market [2][9]. Group 2: Price Increase Signals - The importance of price signals is highlighted, with the central bank's fourth-quarter meeting focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Price increase logic is gradually emerging in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][10]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Chemical sector with improving demand but contracting supply, such as organic silicon, refrigerants, pesticides, and lithium carbonate in the new energy sector [3][10]. 2. TMT supply chain experiencing rapid demand expansion, leading to supply shortages in areas like storage chips and electronic materials [3][10]. 3. Non-ferrous metals sector benefiting from both financial and demand attributes, including precious metals and industrial metals [3][10]. Group 3: Industry Configuration - Three main investment themes identified: 1. Technology growth, driven by global chip technology breakthroughs and ongoing price increases in storage, with recommendations for sectors like internet, electronics, and manufacturing [4][11]. 2. Non-bank financials, benefiting from the shift of household deposits and growing wealth management needs, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage sectors [4][11]. 3. Cyclical opportunities, with low valuations and improving economic conditions, focusing on tourism, hospitality, and consumer goods, as well as tight supply in commodities like chemicals and metals [4][11]. Group 4: Thematic Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging in AI applications, robotics, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to see significant catalysts [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese emerging technology industry is in the early stage of its lifecycle, with high valuations and significant innovation advantages expected to drive market capitalization growth for leading companies; the manufacturing and consumption industries are more mature, with solid global competitiveness and potential for valuation increases [3][66]. Group 1: Technology Industry Comparison - The overall lifecycle of China's emerging technology industry is early, with optimistic growth expectations reflected in valuations for AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [72]. - The semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment sectors show high valuations compared to international leaders, indicating market optimism for rapid profit growth and catching up [9][72]. - Internet companies exhibit weaker profitability and lower relative valuations compared to international counterparts, while consumer electronics have a notable overseas revenue share and moderate valuations [9][72]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Comparison - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with strong global competitiveness and significant valuation advantages compared to international leaders [68][98]. - The lithium battery sector leads in scale and profitability, with head companies generally having lower valuations than their international counterparts, indicating a strong cost-performance ratio [68][40]. - High-end equipment and new materials industries have profitability comparable to international leaders, but their global expansion potential remains significant [68][40]. Group 3: Consumer Industry Comparison - The product consumption sector in China shows strong profitability, but its growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, leading to lower global competitiveness compared to international leaders [68][49]. - Service consumption is still in the early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to international leaders, but it has substantial growth potential as the economic structure transforms [68][49]. - Overall, the consumer sector has a relatively high cost-performance ratio, with opportunities arising from the transformation of consumption structure and the growth of service consumption leaders [68][49]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading companies in electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication devices, electronics, and service consumption sectors, which are expected to benefit from strong innovation advantages and global expansion potential [69][60].

Core Insights - Chengdu XianDao is a platform-based R&D enterprise focused on new drug discovery, aiming to build a scalable, efficient, and expandable drug discovery system [1][4] - The company utilizes a leading trillion-level DNA-encoded compound library (DEL) as its core technology platform, empowering over 1,000 R&D projects for more than 600 global clients [1][4] - Future strategies include deepening the R&D value chain with AI and automation technologies, while also expanding capabilities horizontally [1][4] Group 1: Company Strategy and R&D Focus - The core strategy involves creating a scalable and efficient drug discovery system centered around the DEL technology platform [4] - The company aims to explore new types of tool molecules and therapeutic molecules, focusing on discovery, optimization, and transformation [1][4] - The DEL technology is being applied to challenging target areas such as PPI and GPCR, enhancing the breadth and depth of target exploration [5][6] Group 2: HAILO Platform and AI Integration - The HAILO platform integrates DEL, AI, and automation for molecular optimization, enhancing data integration and molecular optimization efficiency [2][7] - The AI assistant HANDS facilitates a closed-loop system from data acquisition to business implementation, improving R&D efficiency [8][9] - HAILO's high-throughput capabilities support the entire process from target validation to lead compound optimization, significantly improving overall efficiency [9] Group 3: Clinical Development and Pipeline - The self-developed project HG146 is in Phase II clinical trials for recurrent or metastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma, with positive preliminary efficacy and safety signals [10] - The company is preparing to communicate with the National Medical Products Administration (CDE) regarding the next steps for HG146's development and registration [10] - The subsidiary Xianyan Biotech is advancing its pipeline, with LDR2402 entering Phase II clinical trials and LDR2515's IND application accepted by CDE [11] Group 4: M&A and Investment Strategy - The company is cautiously evaluating investment or acquisition opportunities that enhance core business, extend the industry chain, or possess breakthrough technology potential [12][13] - The focus is on companies that can strengthen existing operations, extend to upstream and downstream of the industry chain, or are in emerging exploration stages [13] - The company aims to balance short-term goals with long-term strategies through systematic resource integration and market expansion [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases in the external market, while domestic prices are showing signs of slowing growth. The report anticipates a continued rise in pulp prices by January 2026, with gradual price transmission for white paper and ongoing increases for black paper [1][6]. Group 2 - Cultural paper prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper at 4730 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% month-on-month. Factors influencing this include cautious purchasing behavior from distributors and a lack of effective price transmission from wood pulp to paper [2]. - White cardboard prices are rising, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4237 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% month-on-month. This is attributed to low price levels and cost pressures, with some traders raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of corrugated paper is under pressure, with the average market price for AA-grade 120g corrugated paper at 3129 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.29%. Contributing factors include a mixed sentiment among suppliers and limited improvement in demand from the packaging sector [4]. - The waste paper market is experiencing an overall price decline, with the average price for waste yellow board paper at 1767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% month-on-month. This is due to increased supply and a bearish outlook from downstream paper mills [5]. - The wood pulp market is characterized by a mixed price trend, with external prices for broadleaf pulp continuing to rise while domestic prices are stabilizing. The average price for wood pulp is influenced by fluctuations in futures contracts and varying supply-demand dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the issuance of the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" by eight departments on January 7, emphasizing the importance of technology supply and industrial application, and proposing to strengthen policy support to accelerate the "intelligent industrialization" and "industrial intelligence" [1] Group 1: Policy and Implementation - The eight departments aim to promote both "intelligent industrialization" and "industrial intelligence," facilitating deep integration of AI technology and manufacturing applications, thereby supporting the construction of a manufacturing power, a network power, and a digital China [1] - By 2027, China aims to achieve secure and reliable supply of key AI technologies, maintaining a leading position in industrial scale and empowerment levels globally, with plans to promote 3-5 general large models in manufacturing and create 100 high-quality industrial data sets [2] Group 2: Industry Focus and Application - The document emphasizes accelerating application empowerment in key manufacturing sectors such as raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, electronic information, and software services, promoting benchmark solutions and experiences [3] - It calls for a comprehensive transformation and upgrade of processes, embedding large model technology into core production and manufacturing stages, enhancing capabilities in design assistance, simulation model construction, production scheduling, and predictive maintenance [3] Group 3: Support Mechanisms - The report encourages local governments to provide support to enterprises through "computing power vouchers" and "model vouchers," enhancing public services for SMEs and reducing development costs [4] - It proposes establishing a collaborative mechanism among departments, promoting local policies tailored to regional conditions, and guiding enterprises to develop in a differentiated manner to prevent "involution" in the industry [4] - The report also highlights the role of the National AI Industry Investment Fund in enriching quality project reserves and attracting more social capital to invest in AI and manufacturing-related technology research and application tasks [4]

Core Viewpoint - Leading tourism companies are expected to benefit from policy support and the growth of employee cultural and sports consumption, leading to potential short-term gains and long-term performance growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Support and Industry Growth - The four ministries issued a document to promote employee cultural and sports consumption, aiming to unleash consumption potential by 2030 [2]. - The document outlines the establishment of a comprehensive employee cultural and sports activity system, enhancing service quality to meet diverse cultural needs [2]. Group 2: Encouragement of Activities and Spending - There is encouragement to increase the proportion of union funds allocated to employee cultural and sports activities, with a focus on collective bargaining for funding and scheduling [3]. - The plan includes promoting seasonal trips, with a maximum of four trips per year, and developing exclusive cultural and sports products for employees [3]. - Local unions are encouraged to issue cultural tourism vouchers and organize film exhibitions to enhance employee engagement in cultural activities [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the brokerage sector is experiencing a period of adjustment, with significant fluctuations in stock prices among leading firms, while the overall market shows signs of increased investment activity, particularly in margin trading [1] - As of January 7, 2026, the margin trading balance in the A-share market reached 2.6047 trillion yuan, marking a historical high with a single-day increase of approximately 24.8 billion yuan [1] - Open Source Securities suggests that regulatory policies are entering a "positive" cycle, which is expected to support the profitability of the brokerage industry in 2026, with low valuations and institutional holdings providing opportunities for investment [1] Group 2 - The leading securities ETF closely tracks the National Securities Leader Index, reflecting the market performance of quality listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leader Index accounted for 79.13% of the index, with major firms including Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in express delivery volume by November 2025, indicating a continued trend of slow growth and effective implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery volume growth rate is expected to drop to single digits in Q4, with the Double Eleven shopping festival showing a year-on-year increase of 9%, a slowdown compared to the 21% growth in 2024 [2]. - The anti-involution measures implemented since July 2025 have effectively driven price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery sector, which may influence the growth trend of small and light packages and enhance the quality of express delivery demand [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Share - The anti-involution policies have led to an increase in single-package revenue, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan per package respectively since July [3]. - The market concentration has stabilized, with the industry CR8 remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a slight recovery in market share for YTO since Q4 2025, attributed to AI integration and infrastructure upgrades [3]. - The net profit margins for major companies in Q3 2025 were as follows: Zhongtong -0.9%, YTO +0.07%, Yunda -1.5%, and Shentong +0.5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in Q4 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures have been effectively enforced, with the State Post Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involutionary" competition, leading to price stabilization and gradual expansion of price increases to key regions [4]. - The positive effects of the current anti-involution policies are expected to continue, supporting healthy competition and ongoing profitability recovery in the industry [4]. - Future focus should be on the regulatory strength of anti-involution measures and the competitive strategies of companies within the industry [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish rating on the express delivery sector, highlighting leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from profitability improvements and high overseas volume growth [5]. - SF Express is noted for its operational mechanisms that drive volume growth, with short-term performance fluctuations attributed to proactive market expansion strategies and necessary long-term investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry in China is expected to continue its recovery, with significant improvements in demand and a potential turnaround in profitability by 2025, driven by a strong rebound in passenger traffic and strategic pricing adjustments [2][5]. Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming New Year holiday is anticipated to see robust air travel demand, with significant increases in both volume and pricing compared to previous years [4]. - The Spring Festival travel peak is expected to maintain active business and personal travel, although the holiday's impact may be weaker than in previous years [4]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [2]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with a projected fleet size increase of approximately 3.7% by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels [2]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [2]. Group 4: Quarterly Performance Expectations - In Q1, passenger traffic is expected to reach new highs due to strong personal demand, but ticket prices may decline by about 10% year-on-year, limiting profitability improvements [3]. - Q2 is projected to see significant reductions in losses due to active business travel and favorable supply-demand conditions [3]. - Q3 may experience weaker business demand, impacting profitability despite a slight increase in ticket prices driven by recovering demand from September [3]. - Q4 is expected to continue the trend of significant loss reduction, supported by strong holiday travel and stable load factors [3]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," with sustainable growth in demand and a recovery in pricing and profitability expected to begin in 2026 [5]. - The market has achieved price liberalization, and the focus on improving network quality will be crucial for traditional airlines' future profitability [5].