晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index, which has shown significant growth over various time frames, indicating a positive trend in the materials sector [1][2] - The CSI 800 Materials Theme Index reported a value of 2899.41 points, with a 3.48% increase over the past month, a 12.06% increase over the past three months, and an 8.07% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of listed companies in the materials sector selected from the CSI 800 Index, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index include Zijin Mining (12.74%), Wanhua Chemical (4.0%), and Yilong Co. (2.48%), among others [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is predominantly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange (65.19%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (34.81%) [1] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals account for 50.67%, chemicals for 32.62%, steel for 8.63%, non-metallic materials for 6.87%, and paper and packaging for 1.22% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Industry Performance in 2024 - In 2024, 34 listed mining and metal companies achieved sales revenue of 284.47 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while net profit was 31.92 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.3% [1] - Different mineral products showed varied performance: gold, aluminum, and copper saw increases in revenue and profit, while coal, lithium, and rare earth products experienced declines, with lithium sales revenue dropping by 57.9% and net profit decreasing by 109.9% [1] Assets and Financials - Total assets reached 3,792.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.5%, indicating stability [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 4.49%, but accounts receivable turnover days rose, with lithium product companies having the longest turnover days at 73 days [2] Resources and Production - Domestic mineral reserves are steadily increasing, with accelerated overseas expansion. Coal, bauxite, and gold reserves grew, while lithium and rare earth production increased. Overseas investments are concentrated in copper, lithium, and gold, with Congo, Argentina, and Ghana becoming popular destinations [3] Capital Market and International Benchmarking - Market capitalization increased for all mineral companies except lithium product companies, with coal companies having the highest market value at 1,415.5 billion RMB. The highest dividend yield was for coal companies at 4.72%, while lithium companies had the lowest at 0.24% [4] - Compared to the top six global mining companies, Chinese listed mining and metal companies lag in ROA, working capital turnover days, and revenue cash ratio, but have a lower effective tax rate. Future tax burdens may rise with the implementation of the "Pillar Two" global minimum tax rules [4] Global Mergers and Tax Challenges - From 2021 to Q1 2025, Chinese enterprises engaged in overseas mining transactions totaling 15.43 billion USD, with gold transactions leading. Mergers and acquisitions were primarily focused in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, with active trading in gold, copper, and lithium [5] - The domestic green tax system is improving, with resource taxes primarily based on value. The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism significantly impacts steel and aluminum exporters, while U.S. tariff policies increase export costs [6] ESG and Future Outlook - Domestic and international ESG policies are tightening, with dual importance analysis becoming a key disclosure focus. Companies like Zijin Mining and Nanshan Aluminum have established ESG governance systems, but domestic companies still lag behind international peers in ESG ratings [7] - The industry faces challenges related to ESG, capital, and operational permits, while opportunities exist in digitalization, green transformation, and new business models. Companies need to enhance technological innovation, optimize resource allocation, and improve global competitiveness [8] Summary - In 2024, Chinese listed mining and metal companies demonstrated resilience in a complex environment, with revenue growth and stable asset structures, but significant profit differentiation. The industry must address global tax reforms and heightened ESG requirements while seizing opportunities in green transformation and digitalization for high-quality development [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund, which has shown varying returns over different time frames [1] - As of July 4, 2025, the fund's latest net value is 3.4950 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.94% [1] - The fund's one-month return is 5.21%, ranking 146 out of 871 in its category, while its six-month return is 12.34%, ranking 214 out of 862 [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has achieved a return of 10.29%, ranking 165 out of 860 [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 67.75%, with the largest holding being Sailun Tire at 9.57% [1] - Other significant holdings include Haohua Technology (8.69%), Yun Aluminum (8.06%), and China Aluminum (8.02%) [1] - The fund was established on September 21, 2017, and as of March 31, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - The fund manager, Han Chuang, has a master's degree in economics and has been with Dachen Fund Management since June 2015 [2] - Han has held various positions, including being a member of the stock investment decision committee and managing multiple funds since 2019 [2] - He has been the fund manager for the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund since January 13, 2021 [2]

Group 1 - The report details the changes in the registered capital of China Aluminum Corporation as of June 30, 2025, indicating no increase or decrease in the registered share capital, which remains at RMB 13,211,666,110 for both the previous and current month [1][2]. - The total issued shares for the company also remained unchanged at 13,211,666,110 shares, with no treasury shares reported [1][2]. - The report confirms that the total registered capital for the company, combining both securities, stands at RMB 17,155,632,078 [1][2]. Group 2 - The report indicates that there are no changes in the number of issued shares or treasury shares for the securities with codes 601600 and 02600, maintaining the figures at 13,211,666,110 and 3,943,965,968 respectively [1][2]. - There are no details provided regarding stock options, warrants, convertible bonds, or any other agreements related to the issuance of shares [1][2].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年6月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年7月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the central bank's liquidity release is stabilizing market expectations, with the steel demand expected to weaken further but with limited downside [14] - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but trade uncertainties and seasonal demand weakness are concerns [39] - The aluminum market is facing macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing some support for prices [46] - Gold demand is expected to weaken due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with future price influences from economic data and geopolitical factors [51] - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak [56] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that steel inventory is increasing as the off-season deepens, with a marginal increase in fundamental pressure [14] - As of June 27, the total steel inventory was 13.325 million tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous week but a 23.42% decrease year-on-year [25] - The average price index for steel on June 27 was 3,344.56 CNY/ton, down 0.49% from the previous week [37] Copper Industry - The report indicates that copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, with LME copper prices at 10,100 USD/ton and domestic prices at 80,300 CNY/ton as of June 27 [42] - The copper refining fees were reported at -43.57 USD/ton and -4.36 cents/pound [40] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by stable production and seasonal demand weakness, with LME aluminum prices at 2,600 USD/ton and domestic prices at 20,900 CNY/ton as of June 27 [47] - The report mentions that the average price of alumina was 3,121 CNY/ton, down 2.38% from the previous week [47] Precious Metals - The report states that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold closing at 3,286.10 USD/ounce and SHFE gold at 768.64 CNY/gram on June 27 [51] - Silver prices showed a slight increase, with COMEX silver at 36.17 USD/ounce and SHFE silver at 8,792.00 CNY/kg [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 60,400 CNY/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous week [57] - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the lithium market is expected to continue [56] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that light rare earth prices are at 444,500 CNY/ton, with a slight increase, while heavy rare earth prices have seen a decrease [69] - Tungsten concentrate prices are stable at 172,000 CNY/ton, while APT prices have decreased slightly [73]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Modern Energy of State-Owned Enterprises has shown mixed performance, with a slight increase recently but a year-to-date decline, reflecting the overall trends in the modern energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The index closed at 1284.8 points, with a trading volume of 20.648 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.23%, and over the last three months, it has risen by 1.36%, while it has decreased by 4.08% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index is composed of 50 listed companies involved in green energy, fossil energy, and energy transmission and distribution, reflecting the performance of modern energy theme companies [1]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index include: - Changjiang Electric Power (10.02%) - Guodian NARI Technology (7.44%) - China Nuclear Power (6.4%) - Three Gorges Energy (5.1%) - Aluminum Corporation of China (4.68%) - Guodian Power (3.71%) - China Power Construction (3.49%) - China Shenhua Energy (3.08%) - State Power Investment Corporation (3.01%) - China National Petroleum Corporation (2.97%) [1]. Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 81.96% of the index's holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange represents 18.04% [1]. - In terms of industry distribution, the index's sample shows: - Utilities: 44.88% - Industrials: 22.59% - Energy: 17.31% - Materials: 14.35% - Communication Services: 0.88% [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Public funds tracking the index include: - Harvest CSI National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Link A - Harvest CSI National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Link C - ICBC CSI National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF - Bosera CSI National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF - Harvest CSI National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF [2].