由于第三季盈利调整，该行下调其今年收入净利润预测0.5%和10.8%，但重申"跑赢大市"评级及目标价 21港元。 里昂发表研究报告指，长城汽车第三季收入按年升20.5%，毛利率按季降0.4个百分点至18.4%，净利润 较市场预期低。由于公司将于明年在大众市场及高端市场推出新车型，该行相信公司的高端化策略将进 一步实现，有助提升其在欧洲等地区的出口，并获得更高的平均售价。该行相信，长城汽车的技术优势 和持续的溢价能力，将为其明年发展奠定基础。 ...

该行将长城汽车2025至2027年净盈利预测分别下调2%、5%及4%，反映新车型推出以及海外渠道开拓， 提升销售费用预期，同时海外业务占比增加，令公司税率有所上升；目标价由26港元降至24港元，评 级"增持"。 招商证券国际发表报告指，长城汽车第三季业绩低于预期，受俄罗斯报费用递延、汇兑及海外税率扰 动，但高端品牌魏明年指引乐观，出口业务今年明年有望强劲增长。报告指，长城汽车第三季实现营业 总收入612.5亿元，按年和按季分别增长20.5%和+17.1%，略低于市场预测的634亿，但符合该行预期。 汽车销量35.36万辆，按年和按季分别增长20.2%和+13%，增长强劲。对应单车收入17.32万元，按年和 按季分别增长9.3%和3%，中高端车占比提升。 ...

招商证券国际发布研报称，下调长城汽车（601633）(02333)2025-2027年盈测2%/5%/4%，反映新车型 推出及海外渠道开拓提升销售费用预测，同时海外业务占比增加，致使集团税率上升，下调目标价 8%，由26港元降至24港元，维持"增持"评级。 报告表示，集团多因素拖累第三季利润，受俄罗斯费用递延、汇兑及海外税率扰动。但集团高端品 牌"魏"明年指引乐观，将在2026年挑战月交付6万台。出口业务亦有望强劲增长，集团预计今年出口冲 击50万台，2026年增长亦不低于20%。欧洲市场则预计于2026年第二季推EC15车型，以开拓新市场。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that Xinqianglian's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 3.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.1%, and a net profit of 582 million yuan, up 846.6% year-on-year [3][4] - The report indicates that Xinqianglian's TRB penetration rate is expected to further increase, particularly in small and medium power models, as the company aims to enhance wind turbine quality and reliability [4][5] - The report projects that Xinqianglian will achieve revenues of 4.877 billion yuan, 5.940 billion yuan, and 6.990 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 904 million yuan, 1.208 billion yuan, and 1.504 billion yuan [5] Group 2 - The report notes that Xince Standard's Q3 2025 revenue reached 597 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.31%, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, also up 8.33% year-on-year [6][7] - The report emphasizes that Xince Standard's Q3 performance marked the highest quarterly revenue growth since Q3 2023, with a revenue of 225 million yuan, up 22.18% year-on-year [7][8] - The report anticipates that Xince Standard will achieve revenues of 807 million yuan, 948 million yuan, and 1.121 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 206 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 301 million yuan [8] Group 3 - The report states that Yanggu Huatai's Q3 2025 revenue was 858 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, but net profit decreased by 29.15% year-on-year to 33 million yuan [9][11] - The report highlights that the increase in raw material prices, particularly sulfur, has pressured profit margins, leading to a decline in profitability [11][12] - The report mentions that Yanggu Huatai is actively pursuing the acquisition of Bomi Technology, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in the electronic chemicals sector [12][13] Group 4 - The report indicates that Xinlaifu's Q3 2025 revenue was 709 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.70%, while net profit decreased by 2.25% year-on-year to 104 million yuan [16][18] - The report notes that the decline in net profit is attributed to rising raw material prices and international trade policies [18][19] - The report mentions that Xinlaifu is progressing with the acquisition of Jinnan Magnetic Materials, which is expected to create synergies in the magnetic materials sector [19][20] Group 5 - The report highlights that Xinyangfeng's Q3 2025 revenue reached 13.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.96%, with net profit growing by 23.43% to 1.374 billion yuan [22][23] - The report emphasizes that the increase in profit is driven by phosphate fertilizer exports, despite challenges in domestic demand due to adverse weather conditions [23][24] - The report projects that Xinyangfeng will achieve revenues of 173 billion yuan, 190 billion yuan, and 204 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.06 billion yuan, 18.48 billion yuan, and 20.36 billion yuan [26] Group 6 - The report states that Great Wall Motors' Q3 2025 revenue was 61.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, while net profit decreased by 31.2% to 2.3 billion yuan [28][29] - The report notes that the increase in sales volume and average selling price was offset by a slight decline in gross margin [29][30] - The report projects that Great Wall Motors will achieve revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 278.5 billion yuan, and 312.5 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 13.45 billion yuan, 17.4 billion yuan, and 20.43 billion yuan [32] Group 7 - The report indicates that Salt Lake Co.'s Q3 2025 revenue was 11.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.34%, with net profit rising by 43.34% to 4.503 billion yuan [33][34] - The report highlights that the increase in profit is attributed to the rising prices of potassium chloride, despite a decrease in production and sales volume [34][36] - The report projects that Salt Lake Co. will achieve revenues of 167.32 billion yuan, 190.59 billion yuan, and 193.49 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 63.86 billion yuan, 69.45 billion yuan, and 70.89 billion yuan [37] Group 8 - The report states that Satellite Chemical's Q3 2025 revenue was 34.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, with net profit rising by 1.69% to 3.755 billion yuan [39][41] - The report notes that the decline in Q3 net profit is due to a decrease in product prices and narrowing price spreads [41][42] - The report highlights that the α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is progressing well, which is expected to support long-term growth [44]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 61.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 50% [2][3]. Revenue Performance - The Q3 revenue was influenced by the confirmation of the scrapping tax refund in the Russian market. The wholesale sales totaled 354,000 vehicles, with year-on-year increases of 20% and quarter-on-quarter increases of 13%. The sales structure improved, with the Wei brand's sales proportion increasing by 1 percentage point due to the popularity of the Gaoshan series [3]. - The company exported 140,000 vehicles in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28%, primarily driven by the increase in Haval brand exports [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 was 18.4%, down by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The decline was attributed to a decrease in sales of high-margin models and increased dealer rebates for Haval and pickup trucks [3]. - The company reported a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan for Q3, with a net profit per vehicle of 6,000 yuan [3]. New Product Cycle and Technology - The company is advancing its new vehicle cycle with a robust technological foundation. The CoffeeOS 3 intelligent cockpit system is being integrated into multiple strategic models, enhancing the overall intelligent travel ecosystem [4]. - The Coffee Pilot Ultra feature was officially launched in August, providing enhanced driving assistance capabilities in new models [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to intensified market competition, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 11.9 billion, 17.4 billion, and 22.1 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 17, 11, and 9 times [5]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a strong new product cycle for the Wei and Ora brands in 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company reported steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 153.58 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing an 8.0% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.2% to 8.63 billion yuan [1][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 61.25 billion yuan, marking a 20.5% increase, while the net profit dropped by 31.2% to 2.30 billion yuan [1][5]. - The company sold 923,000 vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 8.2%, with 334,000 units sold overseas, up 3.1%. New energy vehicle sales surged by 31.7% to 279,000 units [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand image and expanding its influence in the new energy market, emphasizing high-quality production and technological innovation [5]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas operations, establishing a global R&D network and optimizing its business layout to drive growth in both domestic and international markets [5]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 18.4%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 3.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [5]. - The overall expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 10.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio remaining stable at 4.8% [5]. - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 12.86 billion yuan, 16.77 billion yuan, and 20.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 173.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 340.64 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [6][28]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.82 yuan in 2023 to 2.41 yuan in 2027 [6][29]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 27.9 in 2023 to 9.5 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [6][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 33.66 and HKD 23.37 respectively [7][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 revenue of RMB 61.2 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 17%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.3 billion, down 31% quarter-on-quarter and 50% year-on-year, primarily due to deferred tax refunds in CIS countries [1]. - The company achieved a record high sales volume of 350,000 vehicles in Q3, a 10% year-on-year increase, with 120,000 of those being new energy vehicles, marking a 49% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The company is focusing on new vehicle launches, particularly the Wei brand and Tank series, with significant models like the Wei brand Gaoshan 7 and Tank 400 expected to drive sales in Q4 [3]. - The overseas market showed signs of recovery, with Q3 overseas sales reaching 334,000 vehicles, a 3% year-on-year increase, attributed to the opening of a new manufacturing facility in Brazil and strong performance in the CIS market [4]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue for Q3 was RMB 61.2 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 17%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.3 billion, down 31% quarter-on-quarter and 50% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached RMB 153.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, while net profit was RMB 8.6 billion, down 17% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Market Trends - The company sold 350,000 vehicles in Q3, a record high for the quarter, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 120,000, a 49% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The new energy vehicle penetration rate increased from 27% in Q3 2024 to 33% in Q3 2025 [2]. New Product Launches - The company is maintaining a strong new vehicle launch schedule in Q4, with the Gaoshan 7 and Tank 400 models expected to contribute significantly to sales [3]. - The Gaoshan 7 was launched at a price of RMB 285,800, featuring advanced technology and spacious design [3]. Overseas Market Performance - Q3 overseas sales reached 334,000 vehicles, a 3% year-on-year increase, with September sales hitting 50,000 vehicles, a 14% increase year-on-year [4]. - The new manufacturing facility in Brazil is expected to enhance production capacity and market reach in Latin America [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains at RMB 13.1 billion for 2025, with a target price of RMB 33.66 based on a PE ratio of 22x for A-shares and 14x for H-shares [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 20.5% in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 61.25 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31.2% to 2.3 billion yuan [5][7] - The company’s wholesale volume in Q3 2025 was 354,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The average selling price per vehicle reached 173,000 yuan, up by 0.6 thousand yuan quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company’s gross margin was 18.4%, showing a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, influenced by changes in product mix [7] - The company’s overseas sales volume reached 137,000 units in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.9%. Cumulatively, overseas sales for the first three quarters of the year reached 334,000 units, up 3.1% year-on-year [7] - The sales of new energy vehicles in Q3 2025 were 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.6% [7] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 278.5 billion yuan, and 312.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 24%, and 12% [8][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.45 billion yuan, 17.40 billion yuan, and 20.43 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 29%, and 17% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.57 yuan, 2.03 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][9] - The company maintains a solid overseas competitive advantage, with a high degree of profit certainty as new products are launched [8]

Core Insights - Chinese domestic brands, particularly Great Wall Motors, are experiencing a significant transformation from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" in a highly competitive automotive market [1] - Great Wall Motors achieved record revenue of 61.247 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 20.51% year-on-year increase and a 17.07% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 153.582 billion yuan, a 7.96% increase year-on-year, indicating a consistent upward trend over the past six years [1][2] Revenue and Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the average selling price per vehicle exceeded 180,000 yuan, with sales of models priced over 200,000 yuan surpassing 100,000 units, reflecting a 40.83% year-on-year growth [3] - Sales of new energy vehicles reached 118,000 units in Q3, a 49.21% year-on-year increase and a 20.64% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] - Overseas sales totaled 136,500 units in Q3, representing an 11.23% year-on-year increase and a 27.87% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] Product Strategy and Market Position - Great Wall Motors' growth is attributed to its commitment to a "high-quality, high-value manufacturing" strategy, with successful launches in the off-road vehicle segment [4] - The company has established itself as a leader in the off-road market, with new models like the Tank 500 and Tank 400 receiving significant market attention and sales [4] - The Wei brand's new Gao Shan model has redefined the high-end MPV market, achieving sales of 8,560 units in September, making it the best-selling MPV in China for that month [6] Global Expansion and R&D Investment - Great Wall Motors is focusing on global markets, with overseas sales reaching 334,200 units in the first three quarters of 2025, including a record of over 50,000 units sold in September [9][11] - The company invested 6.636 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2025, a 6.86% increase year-on-year, emphasizing a sustainable growth model [9] - Great Wall Motors is developing a comprehensive global strategy, including localized production and tailored development plans for different markets [11]

Overall Market - The overall market for passenger vehicles in China includes ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, the total production and sales of vehicles reached approximately 17 million units, with a significant increase in the share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [5][9] - The market share of NEVs in the overall market has been steadily increasing, reaching 52.1% by September 2025 [8][13] Submarket Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is segmented into cars, MPVs, and SUVs, with significant growth observed across all categories [4][27] - In the first nine months of 2025, NEV sales reached approximately 8.87 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [10][27] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the overall market is projected to continue rising, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards electric vehicles [10][13] Export Market - The export market for vehicles, including both complete vehicles and CKD (Completely Knocked Down) kits, has shown robust growth, with NEVs accounting for a growing share of exports [14][18] - In 2025, the export volume of NEVs is expected to reach approximately 3.99 million units, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [14][18] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the export market has also improved, reaching 40.7% in the first nine months of 2025 [20] Manufacturer Performance - BYD remains the leading manufacturer in the NEV segment, with wholesale sales of 3.22 million units in the first nine months of 2025, representing a market share of 30.8% [22][23] - Other notable manufacturers include Geely and Changan, with significant year-on-year growth in both wholesale and retail sales [22][23] - Tesla's performance has shown a decline in wholesale sales, indicating increased competition in the NEV market [22][23] Vehicle Type Segmentation - The retail sales of different vehicle types (sedans, MPVs, SUVs) indicate a strong preference for SUVs in the NEV category, with sales reaching 1.13 million units in the first nine months of 2025 [26][27] - The overall market for fuel vehicles has seen a decline, with a notable drop in sales across all categories, while NEVs continue to gain traction [26][27] - The growth in NEV sales is accompanied by a decline in traditional fuel vehicle sales, highlighting a significant market shift [26][27]