来源：华泰睿思 上周市场创新高，充裕流动性仍是行情的主要基底，我们强调： 1 ）短期来看，判断 市场顶部的意义和胜率都不算高，配置上应保持仓位、顺势择线、适 度内部高低切换； 2 ）节奏上后续即便出现调整，幅度也不会太深，市场进入上行趋势的共识在逐步增强。过往看国内基本面、国内流动性、海外流动性三 者改善是市场步入上行趋势的关键三支柱，当前三个因素都在汇聚积极变化，从量变到质变需要时间，蓄势充分后期行情才有望走的更远。配置上， AI 链、创新药、军工、大金融仍是战略配置重点，内部适度高切低。 核心观点 国内基本面积极因素仍正在聚集 基本面的改善从预期变为现实往往是市场上行趋势的三大支柱之一，当前基本面改善的因素正在逐步聚集，但从量变到质变仍需要时间，具体来看： 1 ） 7 月国内高频经济数据在政策面、技术面和天气等因素下有所走弱，但 1-6 月国内广义财政支出同比增速录得 8.9% ，较去年同期（ -2.8% ）明显提升，或将 成为后续稳内需、促信心的关键； 2 ）我们的模型显示全 A 中报归母净利润同比增速较一季度基本持平， 25 年年报在基数效应下或展现一定弹性，需求侧 的拉动或仍需等到 26 年； 3 ...

华泰证券研报表示，2025年上半年美国就业市场快速走弱，叠加AI在美国渗透加速，AI被认为是就业 市场走弱的重要因素。我们的研究显示，AI对部分行业/群体产生冲击，但还不是驱动就业放缓的主要 因素，关税、驱逐移民、DOGE等是主要的因素。往前看，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度仍维持偏弱 格局，或为联储9月再次降息创造条件；但四季度企业雇佣意愿改善或带来一定修复。但毋庸置疑的 是，AI的快速渗透将对就业市场、宏观走势、产业格局、收入分配等产生深远的影响。我们认为，AI 或对部分行业/群体就业带来冲击，但目前还不是就业放缓的最重要原因。 ...

国金证券：建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局 国金证券指出，在市场创10年新高之际，建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局。 第一，海外制造业修复下，实物资产将迎来顺风（工业金属（铜、铝、钢铁、基础化工），以及投资加 速下的资本品（工程机械、专用机械、机械零部件、重卡），中长期应该关注产业链重构带来的投资和 消费两端实物消耗提升的机会； 第二，保险的长期资产端将受益于资本回报的见底，其次是券商； 上周五市场震荡走高，沪指站上3800点，科创50涨超8%创3年多新高。沪深两市当日成交额2.55万亿， 较上个交易日放量1227亿。板块方面，半导体、CPO、证券、算力等板块涨幅居前，燃气、钢铁、银 行、乳业等板块跌幅居前。截至上周五收盘，沪指涨1.45%，深成指涨2.07%，创业板指涨3.36%。 在今天的券商晨会上，华泰证券表示，顺趋势择线，内部适度高切低；国金证券指出，建议寻找下一个 阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局；中信建投认为，后续市场走势或将延续中期慢牛格局。 华泰证券：顺趋势择线 内部适度高切低 华泰证券表示，上周市场创新高，充裕流动性仍是行情的主要基底。短期来看，判断市 ...

来源：华泰睿思 核心观点 2025年上半年美国就业市场快速走弱，叠加AI在美国渗透加速，AI被认为是就业市场走弱的重要因素。我们的研究显示，AI对部分行业/群体产生冲击， 但还不是驱动就业放缓的主要因素，关税、驱逐移民、DOGE等是主要的因素。往前看，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度仍维持偏弱格局，或为联储9月 再次降息创造条件；但四季度企业雇佣意愿改善或带来一定修复。但毋庸置疑的是，AI的快速渗透将对就业市场、宏观走势、产业格局、收入分配等产 生深远的影响。 一、2季度美国非农大幅下调，但AI对劳工的替代效益尚不显著 2025年4月以来，美国就业明显放缓，而AI被认为可能是背后的重要原因。年轻群体、研究生学历群体近期失业率上行较为明显，此外企业内部中层管理 人员面临的裁员压力相对更大。由于2025年AI在美国渗透加速，而AI对初级软件工程岗位的替代性更强，且可以更好处理日常任务，从而减少对中层管 理人员的需求，AI被认为可能是就业放缓的重要原因。 我们认为，AI或对部分行业/群体就业带来冲击，但目前还不是就业放缓的最重要原因。2022年11月ChatGPT公布后，少数几个对AI敞口高的行业非农就 业在2024- ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index increasing over 8%, reaching a three-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.36% [1] Analyst Insights - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of maintaining positions and selecting stocks based on market trends, suggesting that any potential adjustments in the market will likely be shallow [2] - The firm noted that the three pillars of market uptrend—domestic fundamentals, liquidity, and overseas liquidity—are showing positive changes, which may lead to a more sustained market rally [2] - Guojin Securities recommended identifying sectors with the most significant marginal improvements in fundamentals for future investments, particularly in industrial metals and capital goods due to overseas manufacturing recovery [3] - The firm also highlighted opportunities in the insurance sector and domestic demand-related fields, indicating that the recovery of large-cap stocks is just beginning [3] - CITIC Securities projected a continuation of a mid-term slow bull market, stating that current market conditions do not present significant bearish signals [4] - The firm noted that sector rotation remains a prominent market characteristic, suggesting that finding new low-position directions in thriving sectors may offer better short-term value [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market has reached 3800 points for the first time in ten years, with most brokerages believing that the internal and external fundamentals and liquidity conditions do not present significant bearish factors, supporting a continued upward trend in the market [1][9] - Citic Securities indicates that the current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, emphasizing the importance of focusing on industry trends and performance rather than merely liquidity [2] - Guotai Junan Securities expresses optimism about the A-share market, citing multiple factors such as capital market reforms and improved risk appetite, which are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets [3] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities warns of potential increased volatility in the A-share market as it enters an acceleration phase, despite a generally positive mid-term outlook [4][6] - Zheshang Securities advises investors to ignore short-term fluctuations and focus on medium-term strategies, suggesting to increase positions near key support levels [10][11] - Xinyi Securities highlights the importance of identifying low-position opportunities in technology growth sectors while also considering cyclical sectors with growth potential [12] Group 3 - Huatai Securities notes that the consensus on the upward trend in the market is strengthening, driven by improvements in domestic fundamentals and liquidity [7][8] - The market is expected to maintain its strength until early September, with a shift in focus from short-term momentum to mid-term developments post-September [6] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bullish, with a focus on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries as key strategic allocations [8][13]

Core Viewpoint - The current bond market is characterized by weak coupon protection, heavy speculation, and strong sentiment-driven trading, leading to suboptimal investment experiences [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The short-term bond market is still facing headwinds, but interest rates are likely to have an upper limit [1] - The upper limit for the ten-year government bond is around 1.8%, with a maximum position at 1.9%, indicating potential overshoot risks mainly from institutional behavior [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - After October, a "counterattack" opportunity may arise due to a supply off-season, sentiment turning point, and high base effects in consumption [1] - The risk of continued tightening in the funding environment is low, and a recommendation for a steepening curve trade is suggested [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - 30-year government bonds and perpetual bonds are likely to act as sentiment amplifiers, and it is advised to temporarily avoid these [1] - Bonds with maturities of 5-7 years and below possess defensive characteristics, with shallow leverage arbitrage suggested [1] - For credit bonds, a focus on the mid to short end is recommended, as 3-5 year ordinary credit bonds have become relatively attractive after recent declines [1] - Convertible bonds should maintain equity beta exposure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that the A-share market reached new highs last week, with abundant liquidity being the main foundation for the market trend. The consensus is gradually strengthening that the market is entering an upward trend, despite potential short-term adjustments not being too deep [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The significance and probability of determining the market peak in the short term are considered low [1] - The three key pillars for the market's upward trend are improvements in domestic fundamentals, domestic liquidity, and overseas liquidity, all of which are currently showing positive changes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain positions, select stocks based on trends, and moderately switch between high and low sectors [1] - Strategic focus areas for investment include AI chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and large financial sectors, with an emphasis on internal high-low adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The company, Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., plans to invest no more than 32 million yuan of its own funds into its equity public funds, with a holding period of no less than one year [1] - The investment actions will strictly adhere to legal regulations, fund contracts, and prospectuses, ensuring fairness, transparency, and avoidance of conflicts of interest [1] - The company commits to comply with relevant laws and regulations during the holding period of the fund shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 3800 points, has led to a significant increase in demand for investment advisory services from brokerages, with both contract signings and revenue rising concurrently [1][2]. Group 1: Demand for Investment Advisory Services - There has been a notable increase in the signing of equity portfolio products, reflecting a resurgence in investor confidence and enthusiasm for the equity market [2]. - The number of clients resetting passwords for dormant accounts has surged significantly in August, indicating a revival in trading activity [2]. - The demand for advisory services is driven by investors' concerns about market valuations, the sustainability of capital inflows, and specific asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2: Brokerages' Response Strategies - Brokerages are actively enhancing their advisory services and launching promotional activities, particularly during the "818 Financial Festival," to attract and retain clients [3][4]. - Various brokerages are offering new client incentives, including high-yield financial products and advanced trading tools, to encourage new account openings [4]. - Investment education initiatives are being implemented to guide new clients in rational investment strategies, focusing on risk tolerance and diversified asset allocation [5][6]. Group 3: Operational Enhancements - Brokerages are investing in operational support, including customer service and educational resources, to better meet client needs [5][6]. - Technological improvements, such as app enhancements and intelligent service features, are being introduced to facilitate a better trading experience for clients [6].