事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 拓普集团（601689）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩承压，机器人+液冷业务加速布局 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度营收 209.3 亿元、同比+8.1%，归母净利 19.7 亿元、同比-12%，扣非归母净利 18.2 亿元、同比-10%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,600 | 30,157 | 35,150 | 42,669 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,001 | 3,064 | 3,751 | 4,724 | | 同比增速(%) | 39.5% | 2.1% | 22.4% | 25.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.16 | 2.72 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 39 | 32 | 25 | | 市净率( ...

Group 1 - The new industrialization sector led the decline, dropping by 1.85% [1] - Industrial Fulian fell by 2.65%, Feiwo Technology decreased by 2.45%, and Hongfuhan dropped by 2.42% [1] - Top Group and Huawei Technology both experienced declines exceeding 3% [1]

Group 1 - The humanoid robot concept stocks experienced a decline in early trading, with Lixing Co., Ltd. dropping over 10% [1] - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. fell by more than 7%, indicating a broader downturn in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Zhejiang Rongtai, Wuzhou New Spring, and Top Group also saw significant declines [1]

Summary of Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SS) Management Meeting Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Tuopu Group - **Industry**: Automotive parts manufacturing Key Points Order Recovery and Growth - Management reported a recovery in orders with double-digit growth starting from September 2025, expected to continue into 2026, driven by increased orders from a key customer and other North American OEMs [1][5] - Current order backlog is estimated at RMB 38 billion to RMB 40 billion, with 20% from overseas and 80% from China [5] Pricing and Margin Outlook - The company sees limited room for further price cuts on auto parts, expecting overall gross margins to remain stable with net margins projected at 10%-12% [1][2] - Despite anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, margin pressure is expected due to potential slowdowns in the automotive market [2] Emerging Business Segments - **Robotics**: Production is set to start in 2026, but ramp-up timing remains uncertain. The company aims to maintain a dominant market share despite competition from new entrants [1][6] - **Liquid Cooling**: Targeting production to begin in January 2026, with an expected annual order amount of RMB 350 million [7] Capital Expenditure and Utilization - The company forecasts annual capital expenditures of RMB 3 billion to RMB 4 billion, excluding humanoid robot-related capex, which is projected at RMB 7 billion to RMB 8 billion for a capacity of 1 million units [7] - With improved production utilization at the Mexico factory, depreciation is expected to decrease to 6% of total revenue in 2026 and 5% thereafter, down from 7.25% in the first nine months of 2025 [7] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include fluctuations in key customer sales volume, pricing pressure from OEM customers, and the pace of new product adoption [7] - Uncertainty exists regarding the continuation of trade-in subsidies and NEV purchase tax increases, which could impact market growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 25% for 2026 based on the current order backlog [2] - The target price for Ningbo Tuopu Group is set at RMB 66.0, based on a 20X P/E ratio for 2030E, discounted back to mid-2026E at a 10% cost of equity [7] Additional Insights - The company is collaborating with domestic robotics firms, enhancing its position in the robotics supply chain [6] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of performance in 2026, citing alleviated pricing pressures and a broader client base [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the management meeting of Ningbo Tuopu Group, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, emerging business segments, and the associated risks and financial outlook.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **gas turbine** and **solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC)** industries, highlighting the significant demand increase driven by the surge in AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) requirements in the U.S. [1][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbine Demand Surge**: The demand for gas turbines has surged due to the reliance on natural gas for power generation in AIDC, with companies like GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facing delivery delays until 2030. GE's new order volume reached **20 GW** last year, with a backlog of **62 GW** as of Q3 this year [3][4] - **Investment Initiatives**: The U.S. government and Japan are investing **$550 billion** to address energy challenges, with **$25 billion** allocated specifically for gas turbines, steam turbines, generators, and grid issues [4] - **SOFC as a Solution**: SOFC technology, with an efficiency of **95%**, is positioned as a promising energy solution, potentially transforming fossil fuels into electricity more effectively than gas turbines, which have an efficiency of around **30%** [4][7] - **Metal Chromium Demand**: The demand for metal chromium, essential for high-temperature alloys, is expected to increase significantly, with SOFC requiring over **15 times** the amount needed for gas turbines. A supply gap of **340,000 tons** is anticipated by 2028 [6][8] Emerging Opportunities - **Chinese Companies' Role**: Chinese firms like Yingliu Co. and Longda Co. are poised to benefit from the supply chain opportunities as overseas gas turbine manufacturers face integration and installation challenges [4][5] - **North American Power Equipment Market**: The North American power equipment market is expected to see significant growth driven by new energy installations, industrial resurgence, and the replacement of aging grid infrastructure [10][11] - **Transformer Industry Outlook**: The transformer industry is experiencing a supply-demand gap, providing opportunities for domestic companies to expand their market presence [11][12] Additional Insights - **Data Center Construction Impact**: The construction of data centers is increasing demand for advanced power distribution solutions, transitioning from UPS systems to **800V HVDC** and **SST solid-state transformers**, which enhance power conversion efficiency to **98.5%** [13][14] - **Storage Systems Role**: Energy storage systems are crucial for balancing load fluctuations and enhancing gas turbine responsiveness, with global demand for storage expected to reach **300 GWh** by 2030 [14] - **Future Prospects for Weichai Power**: Weichai Power is expected to benefit from both AIDC backup power engines and SOFC technology, with projected revenues from new business lines reaching **3 billion yuan** and total market capitalization potentially reaching **210 billion yuan** by 2027 [16][18] Companies to Watch - **Key Players**: Companies such as Yingliu Co., Wanzhou Co., Longda Co., and Zhihua Co. are highlighted for their potential gains in the component and material sectors due to increased demand [8][9] - **Liquid Cooling Market**: Companies like Yinlun Co., Top Group, and Feilong Co. are noted for their active involvement in the liquid cooling sector for data centers, which is expected to contribute positively to their performance [19]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market is driving the demand for aluminum alloy components in the automotive industry, leading to significant market expansion in China's aluminum alloy automotive parts sector, projected to reach 697.84 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.46% [1][8]. Market Overview - Aluminum alloy automotive parts are defined as components made from aluminum-based alloys, which are processed through various methods to achieve lightweight, high strength, corrosion resistance, and recyclability, contributing to vehicle weight reduction and energy efficiency [2]. - The application of aluminum alloy parts spans the entire vehicle, categorized into powertrain, chassis, body, electronic systems, and decorative components [2]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the development of the automotive parts industry, including initiatives aimed at enhancing manufacturing reliability and promoting high-quality development in the NEV sector [2]. Industry Chain - The aluminum alloy automotive parts industry consists of upstream suppliers of aluminum materials and production equipment, midstream manufacturers of aluminum parts, and downstream automotive manufacturers and aftermarket services [4]. Market Growth - China's automotive market has seen substantial growth, with production and sales reaching 21.05 million and 21.12 million vehicles respectively from January to August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% [6]. Competitive Landscape - The aluminum alloy automotive parts market in China is characterized by a large number of companies, leading to a fragmented market structure. Key players include He Sheng Co., Ltd., Xusheng Group, and Wan Feng Ao Wei, among others [9][10]. - In 2024, Lichung Group led the industry with a revenue of 27.25 billion yuan, followed by Top Group and Minshi Group with revenues of 26.6 billion yuan and 23.15 billion yuan respectively [10]. Company Analysis - Lichung Group specializes in lightweight aluminum alloy products and has a complete industrial chain, with 54.5% of its revenue coming from casting aluminum alloys [11]. - Wan Feng Ao Wei focuses on lightweight metal components, achieving 80.81% of its revenue from automotive lightweight parts, totaling 6.056 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [11]. Development Trends - The industry is expected to adopt smart factory and digital twin technologies, enhancing production efficiency and quality control. The use of recycled aluminum is anticipated to rise, aligning with sustainability goals and reducing production costs [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company faced performance pressure in Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 8.1% year-on-year to 20.93 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% to 1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to declining sales of key customer pickup models, new factory constructions in Mexico and Thailand, and increased R&D investments [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue rose by 12.1% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter to 7.99 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 13.7% year-on-year and 7.9% quarter-on-quarter to 670 million yuan [4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 19.2%, while the selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.9% [5]. Business Segment Performance - Automotive electronics continued to drive revenue growth, with a 52.4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.97 billion yuan. Interior functional components also saw steady growth, with a 14.0% increase to 6.87 billion yuan [5]. - The robotics segment is expected to contribute positively to profits, with the company having sent samples of linear and rotary actuators to clients. The gross margin for the electric drive system business was 30.6% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The liquid cooling segment has achieved self-research on core components and is extending its technology to various fields, with initial orders of 1.5 billion yuan from data center providers like Huawei and Nvidia [5]. Global Strategy and Platform Development - The company is accelerating its global layout, planning to increase closed-loop air suspension production capacity to 1.5 million sets per year by 2025, with new factories in Mexico and Thailand [6]. - The dual-platform strategy for smart vehicles and robotics is being developed, with the company supplying high-value components to major clients such as Tesla and BYD [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring industry trends and carefully assessing project prospects and risks, particularly in the robotics sector [1] Group 1 - The company is strategically positioning itself in the robotics sector by focusing on key component products [1] - There is close collaboration with leading clients in the robotics industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 20.93 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% to 1.97 billion yuan [1]. - The automotive electronics segment continues to drive revenue growth, with a 52.4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.97 billion yuan [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its global footprint and developing platform advantages in smart vehicles and robotics [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, but net profit decreased by 13.7% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 19.2%, while the selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.9% [2]. Business Segments - Automotive Electronics: Revenue from automotive electronics (air suspension, intelligent driving, and smart cockpit components) grew by 52.4% to 1.97 billion yuan [2]. - Robotics: The company has begun sampling linear and rotary actuators and expects positive contributions from robotics-related businesses [2]. - Liquid Cooling: The company has developed core components for thermal management and is actively engaging with major data center providers, securing initial orders worth 1.5 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its closed-loop air suspension production capacity to 1.5 million sets per year by 2025 and has opened a new factory in Hangzhou Bay [2]. - The global expansion includes the full production of the first phase of the Mexico project and plans for a factory in Thailand to be operational by early 2026 [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 14%, 20%, and 13% respectively, reflecting short-term pressures from downstream customers [3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 19.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 46.4 billion yuan by 2027, with a projected net profit of 2.83 billion yuan in 2025 [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on the segments of robot components, heavy truck exports, and intelligent autonomous vehicles [5]. Core Insights - The automotive market shows strong demand with a significant increase in wholesale and retail sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which reached a penetration rate of 52.5% in Q3 2025 [5][9]. - The price war in the passenger car segment is easing, leading to improved gross margins for many automakers, including BYD, Changan, and others [5][21]. - The heavy truck market is experiencing a dual boost from domestic sales and exports, with heavy truck sales reaching 21.5 million units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 65% [5][30]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - In Q3 2025, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 7.686 million units, up 14.7% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter; retail sales were 6.11 million units, up 6.5% year-on-year and 5.5% quarter-on-quarter [5][9]. - The NEV wholesale volume reached 4.04 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, with a penetration rate of 52.5%, marking a new high [5][9]. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is seeing increased profitability differentiation, with overall revenue growth lagging behind the industry due to intensified competition and supply chain pressures [5][21]. - Companies like Bojun Technology and Jifeng Co. have reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025 [5]. Heavy Trucks - Heavy truck sales in Q3 reached 21.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 65%, while exports were 81,000 units, down 1% year-on-year but up 26% quarter-on-quarter [5][30]. - The domestic market is expected to continue growing due to policy support, despite a decline in exports to Russia [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on robot components, heavy truck export leaders, and intelligent autonomous vehicles, highlighting companies such as Top Group and BYD for investment opportunities [5].