Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Southwest Securities has given China Petroleum (601857.SH, latest price: 9.88 yuan) a "buy" rating based on several factors [1] - The company has a leading position in oil and gas reserves due to its upstream and downstream collaborative layout [1] - Despite pressure on crude oil prices, the growth rate of natural gas sales remains stable [1] - The new materials business is expanding, contributing to steady growth in natural gas sales [1]

中新网大庆11月17日电 (王立峰)17日，记者从大庆油田获悉，2025年，杏南油田克服原油自然递减率， 通过地质认识突破、储量潜力深挖、建井效率提升三维发力，持续强化产能建设能力，截至目前，该厂 新井投产周期同比去年缩短7%，原油产量超计划运行。 大庆油田采油五厂的技术人员在生产现场进行日常巡检 王立峰 摄 杏南油田作为已勘探开发50余年的老油田，大庆油田采油五厂以薄差油层开发为主，多数区块采用注水 开发模式，近年平均年产油量稳定在100万吨以上。 如何破解"老油田潜力低挖潜难"成为关键。针对油田边部认识程度低、资源未有效动用的痛点，该厂技 术团队聚焦"断层、油水、砂体、厚度"四大核心开展潜力研究，以精准地质分析指导外扩布井。 先后编制太172及杏十三区外扩布井方案、太16-25等井区补充方案，成功带出一大批优质新井位，形成 重要储量接替区。 针对油层跨度大、薄差层比例高、平面层间差异大、动用厚度低的特点，技术人员还总结出适配不同剩 余油的精准挖潜模式，为稳产上产提供智力支撑。 目前，该厂已投产定向井56口，平均单井初期日产油达8.7吨，是周边直井产量的4倍，实现"一口井顶 四口井"的产能突破。 在产能建设 ...

Core Insights - The China Petroleum Industry Index has seen a strong increase of 1.22% as of November 17, 2025, with leading stocks including Salt Lake Co., Jinfa Technology, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 1.18%, reaching a latest price of 0.86 yuan, with a net inflow of 4.2581 million yuan [1] - Over the past 10 trading days, there have been 8 days of net inflows totaling 14.913 million yuan, with the ETF's latest share count reaching 204 million and a total scale of 173 million yuan, both hitting a one-year high [1] Performance Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the Petrochemical ETF has experienced a net value increase of 26.25% over the past six months [3] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum increase of 23.51% [3] - The average return during the rising months is 5.06%, and the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 5.9% over the last six months [3] Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index account for 56.05% of the index, with Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and Salt Lake Co. being the top three [3] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Wanhua Chemical (10.47%), China Petroleum (7.63%), Salt Lake Co. (6.44%), and China Petrochemical (6.44%) [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that international oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil prices increasing slightly while WTI prices decreased slightly as of November 14, 2025 [1][2] - In the first half of the week, China's crude oil imports increased, and the US dollar weakened, contributing to a rise in oil prices due to improved market risk appetite [1][2] - The latter part of the week saw a downward adjustment in OPEC's monthly report, indicating a supply surplus, which released bearish signals to the market [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 14, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, up $0.76 per barrel (+1.19%), while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, down $0.45 per barrel (-0.75%) [2] - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude decreased by $1.43 per barrel (-2.51%) to $55.47 per barrel [2] Group 3 - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, an increase of 1 rig from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 128 [3] - As of November 7, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 to 417 as of November 14, 2025 [3] Group 4 - As of November 7, 2025, US total crude oil inventories increased by 7.211 million barrels (+0.87%) to 838 million barrels [4] - The US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.946 million barrels (-0.46%), while diesel inventory decreased by 0.637 million barrels (-0.57%) [4] Group 5 - The report highlights relevant companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to mutual attacks on energy facilities, causing disruptions in Russian oil exports and supporting oil prices. Recent data shows WTI crude futures prices increased by 0.17% and Brent crude futures by 0.85% during the week of November 7-14, 2025 [6]. - The geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over Russian oil export disruptions, particularly with the New Novorossiysk port's daily export capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels, which accounts for 2% of global supply [6]. - OPEC's latest report indicates a decrease in oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, with a daily output of 43.02 million barrels in October, down by 73,000 barrels from the previous month. However, due to unexpected increases in U.S. oil production, the global market has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a structural oversupply [6]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil surplus could reach a record level of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, posing significant downward pressure on medium to long-term oil prices [6]. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with the IMF noting a decline in GDP growth expectations for the fourth quarter below the previously predicted 1.9% [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices and exports, with significant military actions affecting energy infrastructure [6][7]. - Current oil market dynamics show a transition from a supply shortage to a surplus, influenced by OPEC production adjustments and U.S. output increases [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The market for popular fluorinated refrigerants, such as R32 and R134a, continues to thrive, with prices stabilizing at high levels due to supply constraints and strong demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in air conditioning production rates towards the end of the year, with expected increases in production of 4.2%, 8.6%, and 34.5% for the months of October to December 2025 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, fluorochemicals, and semiconductor materials. It emphasizes the resilience of major oil companies in the face of price volatility and recommends monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC for their strong earnings potential [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it advises attention to leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - For semiconductor materials, the report notes a positive trend in inventory reduction and a gradual recovery in end-market fundamentals, recommending companies involved in domestic substitution and growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commencement of winter heating in northern China and the proactive measures taken by major energy companies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), to ensure energy supply during the winter season [1] Group 1: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - CNPC has fully activated its winter supply mode, aiming to meet the natural gas demand during the winter heating season [3] - In November, CNPC has been supplying an average of nearly 700 million cubic meters of natural gas daily, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, with a peak supply of 735 million cubic meters [3] - The company has arranged for seven gas storage facilities to extract gas, with a daily extraction capacity of nearly 20 million cubic meters [3] - For the winter heating season, CNPC plans to increase natural gas supply resources by 3.7% year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of the domestic supply [3] - The Longqing Oilfield, CNPC's largest natural gas production base, has increased its daily natural gas output to 135 million cubic meters, up by over 3 million cubic meters since the beginning of the month [5] - CNPC's various oil and gas fields are accelerating production to meet the peak gas demand, with significant contributions from fields like the Southwest Oil and Gas Field and Daqing [5] Group 2: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec has launched geothermal heating services across 11 provinces and municipalities, covering over 70 cities and counties, providing clean heating for more than 1.2 million households [6] - The geothermal heating capacity has reached a historical high of 12.6 million square meters, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 6.2 million tons annually [6]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Wengjisang gas storage cluster in the Tuhai oilfield marks the commencement of gas supply for the winter season in Northwest China, enhancing the region's energy security [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Wengjisang gas storage cluster is located in Shanshan County, Turpan City, Xinjiang and consists of four gas storage facilities, all converted from depleted gas reservoirs [1] - The Wengxi No. 1 and No. 2 gas storage facilities began gas injection in 2022 and 2023 respectively, while the Nanhukou and Qiudong storage facilities injected gas for the first time this year [1] Group 2: Supply Capacity - The maximum daily gas supply capacity of the storage cluster exceeds 5 million cubic meters [1] - The cumulative gas supply from the storage cluster has reached 296 million cubic meters [1]

Energy Supply and Demand Overview - The overall energy supply and demand situation is being assessed as the peak winter season approaches in 2025 [1] - Key resources such as natural gas and coal are being prepared for supply [1] Natural Gas Supply - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has entered the natural gas winter supply phase, with resources from various oil and gas fields being allocated nationwide, ensuring overall supply security for this winter and spring [3] - The largest gas storage facility, the Huitu Bih Gas Storage in Xinjiang, has injected over 5 million cubic meters of natural gas into the pipeline, while the Tarim Oilfield's Keriya Gas Storage has surpassed 200 million cubic meters, supporting gas demand in southern Xinjiang [5] - CNPC is maximizing production from oil and gas fields and coordinating natural gas imports, achieving a peak daily supply of 738 million cubic meters as of November 11, with seven gas storage facilities operational to ensure heating in northern regions [7] Coal Supply - The China Electricity Council indicates that the coal supply and demand are currently balanced, creating favorable conditions for electricity supply during the winter peak [9] - The National Energy Administration is urging coal-producing provinces and companies to accelerate the construction of coal reserve projects to enhance emergency supply capabilities [10] - Since October, the national average daily coal production has remained above 12.3 million tons, with power plants holding 227 million tons of coal as of November 11, sufficient for 35 days of use [10] Electricity Supply and Demand - The China Electricity Council forecasts a generally balanced electricity supply and demand during the winter peak, although some regions, particularly in North and East China, may experience tighter supply during peak periods [12]

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover in 2026, with a focus on resource products, anti-involution policies, and emerging industries as investment opportunities [3][27] - The industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Key sectors identified for investment include oil and gas, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electronic resins, and certain anti-involution sectors [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn, with 2024 profits expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels [3] - The supply side has seen a decline in fixed asset investment since June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [3] Demand Dynamics - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus [3] - Emerging demands from sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive growth in key chemical materials [3] - The domestic chemical industry is projected to increase its global market share as overseas capacities are cleared out [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment in 2026 include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Shengquan Group, Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Xinhecheng [3] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit fell by 11.1% [24] - The basic chemical sector showed a recovery with a 1.9% increase in revenue and an 8.9% increase in net profit [24] - The oilfield services sector was the only sub-sector to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit during this period [24] Price Trends - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has shown a downward trend, with a reported decline of 11.5% from the beginning of the year [13] - The PPI for the chemical industry is expected to show marginal improvement in the second half of 2025, although it remains in a downward trend overall [16] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to promote a rebalancing of supply and demand in traditional chemical products, with various sectors responding positively to this policy [27] - Key meetings and documents from government bodies indicate a focus on maintaining growth and regulating new capacity in the petrochemical sector [27]