Core Viewpoint - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve due to the "check overproduction" policy leading to reduced output and the anticipated recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, providing upward price elasticity for both types of coal [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound to long-term contract prices, recently surpassing the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [2]. - The current adjustment in prices is attributed to the seasonal transition from summer to autumn, which has weakened coal consumption, but the upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices up again, particularly in the chemical sector [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different levels of market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector exhibits dual attributes of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields despite overall profit pressures [3]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Key coal stocks benefiting from these trends include: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices have rebounded at the long-term contract benchmark of 675 CNY/ton, with a stable layout in the coal sector [1][13] - The report highlights that the current prices for thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [4][13] - The report emphasizes the dual logic of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends in coal stocks, suggesting that the current low holdings in coal provide a good opportunity for investment [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to rebound to the long-term contract price, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY [4][13] - The report predicts that the thermal coal price will reach the third target price of approximately 750 CNY in 2025, with a potential peak at around 860 CNY [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points [8][28] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.17, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market, while the PB ratio is 1.23 [28]

Group 1 - The company, China Coal Energy (601898.SH), announced a projected commodity coal production of 11.6 million tons for August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - The company's commodity coal sales are expected to reach 20.85 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) announced a decrease in both coal production and sales for August 2025, indicating potential challenges in the coal market [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Data - The company's coal production for August 2025 is projected to be 11.6 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - The coal sales volume is expected to reach 20.85 million tons, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 12.8% [1]

中煤能源(01898HK)在港交所发布公告称，前8月商品煤销量17070万吨，同比下跌5.6%；8月商品煤销 量为2085万吨，同比下跌12.8%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Coal Energy (601898) reported a decrease in both coal production and sales for August 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - In August 2025, the company's coal production was 11.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while coal sales were 20.85 million tons, down 12.8% year-on-year [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the total coal production was 89.99 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and coal sales were approximately 171 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [1]

2025 年 8 月份主要生产经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：601898 证券简称：中煤能源 公告编号：2025-028 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 | 指标项目 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 变化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8 月份 | 累计 | 8 月份 | 累计 | 8 月份 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭业务 | | | | | | | | | （一）商品煤产量 | 万吨 | 1,160 | 8,999 | 1,181 | 9,041 | -1.8 | -0.5 | | （二）商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 2,085 | 17,070 | 2,392 | 18,090 | -12.8 | -5.6 | | 其中：自产商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,151 | 9,040 | 1,116 | 8,869 | 3.1 | 1.9 | | 二、煤化工业务 | | | ...

格隆汇9月12日丨中煤能源(01898.HK)公布，2025年8月份，公司商品煤产量1,160万吨，同比减少 1.8%；商品煤销量2,085万吨，同比减少12.8%；其中，自产商品煤销量1,151万吨，同比增加3.1%。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，幷明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而産生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) （股份代號：01898） 2025 年 8 月份主要生產經營數據公告 上述生產經營數據並不對本公司未來經營情況作出任何明示或默示的預測 或保證，投資者應注意不恰當信賴或使用以上信息可能造成投資風險。 公司將在本公告披露後適時召開月度生產經營資料說明會，具體參會事宜請 詢公司投資者熱線 010-82236028。 承董事會命 中國中煤能源股份有限公司 董事長、執行董事 王樹東 中國 北京 2025 年 9 月 12 日 （海外監管公告） 中國中煤能源股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會及全體董事保證本公告內容 不存在任何虛假記載、誤導性陳述或重大遺漏，並對其內容的真實性、準確 性和完整性承擔法律責任。 | 指標項目 | 單位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 變化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fundamental reason for the frequent global power shortages is the rapid growth in global electricity demand, while the supply side's structural bottlenecks have not been effectively resolved. Traditional energy generation, represented by coal power, will remain a stabilizing force in the global electricity system in the medium to long term [1][3] - Global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%. This growth is driven by three deep-seated factors: deep electrification in the industrial sector, rapid expansion of data centers driven by artificial intelligence, and increased extreme weather events due to global climate change [1][2] - The supply side of the electricity market faces structural bottlenecks, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power unable to provide stable support for electricity demand due to their intermittent nature. Issues such as aging grid infrastructure and weak regional dispatch capabilities further exacerbate the disconnect between electricity generation and availability [2][3] Group 2 - Traditional energy generation, particularly coal power, is being reconsidered as a necessary stabilizing force to address the growing electricity supply gap. The U.S. is expected to restart coal power generation in 2025, marking a significant shift in energy development strategies among developed countries [3] - The demand for coal resources remains high in developing countries, while developed countries are also adjusting their energy strategies, indicating that the peak pressure for coal phase-out may have passed [3]