消息面上，近日，紫金矿业会议审议通过《公司三年(2026—2028年)主要矿产品产量规划和2035年远景 目标纲要》，明确未来3年主要矿产品产量规划指标。花旗认为，通过现有矿山的扩张计划及并购，紫 金矿业的产量在未来几年将持续稳健增长。 美银证券指出，紫金矿业上调2026至2028年产量指引，预期矿产金产量将于2028年达到130至140吨，原 先指引为100至110吨；2025至2028年间年均复合增长率为13%至16%。同时，公司指引2028年铜产量将 达150万至160万吨，即2025至2028年间的年均复合增长率为11%至14%。该行认为，公司长期产量增长 强劲，成本控制严格，且估值合理，看好金价及铜价前景。 紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.59%，报43.84港元，成交额12.51亿港元。 ...

| | i称 | 预告净利润上限 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 601899. SH | 紫金矿业 | 520 | 62 | | 603993. SH | 洛阳铝业 | 208 | 54 | | 603799. SH | 华友钻业 | 65 | 55 | | 600489. SH | 中金黄金 | 54 | 59 | | 600547. SH | 山东黄金 | 49 | 66 | | 600988. SH | 赤峰黄金 | 32 | 81 | | 600111. SH | 北方稀土 | 24 | 135 | | 002460. SZ | 赣锋锂业 | 17 | 180 | | 002155. SZ | 湖南黄金 | 16 | 90 | | 600392. SH | 盛和资源 | 9 | 339 | | 601020. SH | 华钰矿业 | 9 | 255 | | 002466. SZ | 天齐锂业 | 6 | 107 | | 601069. SH | 西部黄金 | 5 | 93 | | 002716. SZ | 湖南白银 | 4 | 127 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on February 11, with the non-ferrous sector showing resilience, particularly the ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652), which rose by 1.84% [1]. Non-Ferrous Sector Performance - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks rise, with Huayou Cobalt increasing over 3%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2%, and Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth both rising over 1% [2][3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with respective weightings of 15.07%, 7.81%, and 4.38% [4]. International Precious Metals Market - On February 11, international precious metal prices increased, with spot gold reaching $5,050 per ounce and silver rising over 1% [5]. - The unexpected stagnation in U.S. retail sales data has fueled bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5]. Company Developments - Xiamen Tungsten announced plans to acquire a 39% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining, aiming to enhance its tungsten and molybdenum resource security [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine for $1.015 billion, with plans to increase gold production significantly by 2030 [6]. Long-term Trends in Precious Metals - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is strengthening, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years [8]. - The expansion of fiscal policies and sovereign debt is injecting new momentum into the precious metals market, with gold's monetary properties expected to strengthen further [9]. Copper Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains optimistic due to supply constraints and increasing demand from AI data centers and energy storage [10][11]. - The anticipated supply disruptions in global copper mines could support a long-term upward trend in copper prices [11]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, driven by monetary easing, supply rigidity, and new demand dynamics [11]. - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is positioned to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals, with a high gold and copper content of 49% [13].

近期，多家上市公司对外公告，通过收购金矿加码黄金业务。2月9日，紫金矿业公告，预计2026年矿产 金达到105吨，矿产铜达到120万吨，矿产银达到520吨，公司将开足马力释放金、铜等主力矿种产能。 金板块方面，紫金黄金国际保持巴布亚新几内亚波格拉金矿、澳大利亚诺顿金田、哥伦比亚武里蒂卡金 矿、圭亚那奥罗拉金矿、塔吉克斯坦吉劳塔罗金矿、吉尔吉斯斯坦左岸金矿等一批成熟在产项目稳产高 产，加速苏里南罗斯贝尔金矿、加纳阿基姆金矿、哈萨克斯坦瑞果多金矿等重要增量项目产能释放。同 时，充分发挥国内陇南紫金、山西紫金、新疆紫金黄金等产能优势，加快山东海域金矿建成投产。 紫金矿业日前披露的2025年业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润510亿元 至520亿元，同比增长59%—62%。2025年，公司主要矿产品产量同比增加。其中，矿产金约90吨 （2024年为73吨）、矿产铜（含卡莫阿权益产量）约109万吨（2024年为107万吨）、矿产银约437吨 （2024年为436吨）、当量碳酸锂（含藏格矿业5—12月产量）约2.5万吨（2024年为261吨）。2025年， 矿产金、矿产铜、矿产银销售价格同比上 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Multiple listed companies are increasing their gold business through acquisitions, with Zijin Mining announcing plans to reach gold production of 105 tons by 2026 [1] - Jinhui Co. signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Fusheng Mining for 210 million yuan, which holds a mining license for a gold mine with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [1] - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, plans to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion CAD (about 28 billion yuan), targeting gold resources of 533 tons [2] Group 2: Production and Financial Projections - Zijin Mining's production plan includes targets of 105 tons of gold, 120 tons of copper, and 520 tons of silver by 2026, with further growth expected by 2028 [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with significant increases in production across key minerals [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumption - China's gold consumption is projected to decline by 3.57% in 2025, while gold production is expected to increase by 1.09% [4] - The demand for gold in industrial applications is rising, driven by emerging industries, despite a decrease in jewelry consumption [4][5] - Global gold demand is expected to exceed 5,000 tons for the first time, with a total value reaching 555 billion USD, marking a 45% year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has announced its three-year plan (2026-2028) and long-term vision for 2035, aiming to enhance its resource reserves, production output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profit rankings, with copper and gold production entering the global top three [1] Group 1: Strategic Goals - The new management team has set ambitious targets to achieve a "green high-tech super first-class international mining group" by 2035, with significant growth in key indicators compared to 2025 [1] - The company plans to acquire three large gold mines in Africa from Canada’s United Gold and has issued $1.5 billion in zero-interest H-share convertible bonds as part of its strategic initiatives [1] Group 2: Production and Economic Indicators - The planned production outputs for key minerals by 2028 are: gold (130-140 tons), copper (150-160 million tons), silver (600-700 tons), lithium equivalent (270-320 thousand tons), and molybdenum (25-35 thousand tons), representing growth rates of 44%-56%, 38%-47%, 37%-60%, 980%-1180%, and 127%-218% respectively compared to 2025 [4] - The company aims to become one of the largest producers of lithium and molybdenum globally, in addition to advancing its global rankings in gold and copper production [4] Group 3: Operational Strategy - The company's operational strategy focuses on "quality improvement, cost control, efficiency enhancement," with an added emphasis on production increase, targeting capacity release in gold, copper, lithium, zinc (lead), silver, and molybdenum sectors [4] - The chairman emphasizes the long journey ahead to achieve the ambitious goals, highlighting the company's history of transforming the "impossible" into "possible" through perseverance and cultural values [4]

Group 1 - Jin Hui Mining Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% equity of Huixian Fusheng Mining Development Co., Ltd. for 210 million yuan, marking a strategic move into the gold mining sector [1] - Zijin Mining Group has set ambitious gold production targets, aiming for 105 tons in 2026 and 130 to 140 tons by 2028, reflecting a strong focus on expanding its gold resource portfolio [1][2] - The overall performance of mining companies is expected to improve due to rising prices of gold and copper, alongside increased production capacity [1] Group 2 - The gold sector has become the most favored area for investment among mining companies, with Chinese firms' overseas gold acquisitions nearing 60 billion yuan since the second half of 2025 [2] - Zijin Mining's subsidiary plans a significant acquisition of Canadian United Gold for 28 billion yuan, which would expand its asset base to 12 countries and significantly increase gold production [2] - Other mining leaders, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Shengda Resources, are also actively acquiring high-quality gold mining assets to bolster their production capabilities [2] Group 3 - The global mining industry is entering a "gold-led, multi-metal collaborative" growth cycle, with mergers and acquisitions and capacity releases becoming key industry themes [4] - The current wave of gold acquisitions is characterized by accelerated transaction speeds and strategic geographic or process synergies among acquired assets [4] - The importance of strategic metals like copper and lithium is expected to rise, driving the mining industry towards higher-end and greener transformations [5]

智通财经APP获悉，中诚信国际发文称，预计2026年，在地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用走弱、美联储货币政策和财政政策不确定性尚存的背景下，黄金避 险需求对价格的影响更为显著，黄金价格有望进一步上升。黄金企业盈利及获现能力亦将随金价的提升而增强，收并购及探矿增储带来的资金需求及存货 对资金的占用可能进一步推升债务规模，但考虑到黄金金融属性，行业信用风险处于很低水平。 中诚信国际观察到，2025年以来，关税摩擦、美元信用走弱、地缘政治局势紧张等因素令黄金价格持续攀升，年内金价涨幅超60%，此背景下的上游矿山 利润增厚或将使得黄金企业盈利水平进一步提升，且得益于黄金的金融属性，行业经营表现整体向好。黄金行业景气度持续提升，行业内企业扩产项目推 进及资源收并购推升资金需求，总债务规模扩大。但行业内企业在金价高企时持续推进收并购项目，可能加大其财务压力。 中诚信国际预计，在地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用走弱、美联储货币政策和财政政策不确定性尚存的背景下，黄金金融属性将更加凸显，2026年黄金价格 有望进一步上升。在行业利润及经营活动净现金流持续向好的背景下，多数黄金企业实现很好的经营积累，黄金企业偿债能力增强，整体信用水平有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen further declines in prices, but the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts this year are expected to support precious metal prices moving forward [2][3]. Precious Metals - Gold price this week was $4,948.00 per ounce, down $33.85 from January 30, a decrease of -0.68% [2]. - Silver price this week was $74.94 per ounce, down $28.25 from January 30, a decrease of -27.38% [2]. - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed views on the need for interest rate cuts this year, with expectations of multiple cuts [2]. Copper and Aluminum - Demand weakened as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to stable prices for copper and aluminum [4][6]. - LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down $540 from January 30, a decrease of -4.02% [4]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down ¥3,360 from January 30, a decrease of -3.26% [4]. - Domestic aluminum price was ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [5]. Tin - Domestic refined tin price was ¥356,660 per ton, down ¥66,970 from January 30, a decrease of -15.81% [7]. - Inventory levels indicate a tightening supply situation, but short-term demand remains weak [7]. Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price was ¥160,000 per ton, unchanged from January 30 [8]. - Demand feedback is average, and prices are expected to remain stable [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [9]. - Copper industry also maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tight supply [10]. - Aluminum, tin, and antimony industries maintain "recommended" investment ratings based on supply dynamics [11]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...