渤海证券指出，供给端，受自由港印尼Grasberg矿和刚果（金）卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿的事故影响，全球2026年铜矿供应预期 进一步收紧，将为铜价提供底部支撑，国内铜冶炼加工端的"反内卷"预期有望进一步改善行业竞争格局；需求端，铜是电 力电网、新能源汽车、AI服务器等领域重要原材料，在全球主要经济体进入降息周期背景下需求有望得到提振。 分析指出，锡价上涨主要由于矿端供应紧张和宏观经济预期影响。供应端上，缅甸锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位。 此外，新兴领域需求增长亦为锡价提供强劲支撑。从需求端来看，当前锡的下游需求主要由新兴领域拉动，半导体与消费 电子是锡焊料的传统基本盘，今年以来全球半导体行业景气度上升，直接拉动锡焊料需求。 降息预期提振大宗商品整体价格，二级市场有色金属矿业大涨，12月4日开盘，矿业ETF（159690）跳涨2.49%，锡业股份 涨超8%，洛阳钼业、西部矿业、紫金矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。 商品价格方面，12月3日，沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，创历史新高。锡平均价达到30.97万元/吨，已连续5日处于 30万元上方。 宏观层面，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储在12月议息会议降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the gold sector amid a decline in U.S. employment data, which has strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Performance - Major stock indices experienced slight gains, with the gold sector showing significant upward movement [1] - As of 9:40 AM, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rose by 0.22%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.96% [1] - Notable individual stock performances included Zijin Mining up 4.14%, Tongling Nonferrous Metals up 3.61%, and Zhongjin Gold up 1.61% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment data for November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 jobs, marking the worst performance in two and a half years and falling short of market expectations [1] - This employment data has led to a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] Gold Market Outlook - According to a recent report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the current gold bull market may not be over, as historical comparisons indicate that the current price increase and duration are still below those seen in the major upswings of the 1970s and early 2000s [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include macroeconomic uncertainty, long-term adjustments in global reserve structures, and the potential decline of the dollar cycle [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.17%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly Zijin Mining up 3.11% and China Aluminum up 2.77% [1] - Biotechnology stocks also saw significant increases, with Gilead Sciences rising by 3.7% and BeiGene up by 3.1% [1] - Huaxia Fund believes that the previous irrational panic in the Hong Kong tech sector has eased, and with AI development paths being pragmatic and commercialization clear, valuations are at historical lows, suggesting a potential recovery ahead of A-shares and the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 2 - CICC suggests that ahead of a significant US-China meeting, expectations of continued US easing and elevated Chinese policy expectations may support risk assets, recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks before the meeting [1] - Guoyuan International notes uncertainty in the Fed's decision-making direction before the release of recent economic data, but the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is supported by the Fed's dovish shift and the restoration of dollar liquidity after the US government reopened [1] - Zhongtai Securities sees a new cycle for coal, recommending investment opportunities in the coal sector by focusing on high dividend, low valuation stocks, and companies with significant capacity growth and profit elasticity [2]

格隆汇12月4日｜摩根大通称，仍然看好铜价和铜业股，因结构性供需缺口将持续支撑上行势头。其 中，紫金矿业与洛阳钼业为首选标的，因受益于强劲盈利增长和多元化资产布局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent stability of tin prices above 300,000 yuan per ton and the positive performance of companies in the tin industry, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging sectors like semiconductors and consumer electronics [1][5][7]. Tin Price and Market Dynamics - Tin futures reached a three-and-a-half-year high, with the main contract peaking at 314,100 yuan per ton, marking a 2.72% increase [5][18]. - The average spot price of tin on December 3 was 309,700 yuan per ton, up 5,630 yuan from the previous trading day, maintaining above 300,000 yuan for five consecutive days [5][18]. - The rise in tin prices is attributed to tight supply from Myanmar and positive macroeconomic expectations, including a high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [7][20]. Demand Drivers - The demand for tin is primarily driven by the semiconductor industry, which is expected to see a 19.1% increase in global sales in 2024, reaching $627.6 billion [7][20]. - Tin solder demand is projected to grow at a rate of 5% to 7% in 2025, supported by the recovery of the global economy and advancements in new industries [7][20]. Company Performance and Stock Market Reaction - Seven listed companies in the A-share market are involved in the tin industry, with significant investor interest due to rising tin prices [8][21]. - The average stock price increase for tin-related companies this year is 113.08%, with notable gains from companies like Xingye Silver Tin and Shengtun Mining, which saw increases of 226.33% and 160.32%, respectively [8][21]. - In the first three quarters, these companies collectively achieved a net profit of 43.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.47% [9][22]. Individual Company Highlights - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 55.45% year-on-year, with significant tin reserves [9][22][23]. - Xiyang Tin achieved a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.99% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the largest tin producer globally [10][23]. - Institutional interest is high, with Zijin Mining and Xiyang Tin receiving the most ratings from analysts, indicating strong market confidence [10][23][24].

证券时报记者 刘俊伶 12月3日日盘，沪锡期货主力2601合约平开高走，盘中最高报价31.41万元/吨，最高上涨2.72%，创 2022年5月以来新高，收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。沪锡主力合约自今年6月开始震荡上涨，累计 涨幅达到23.3%。 锡现货价格亦站稳30万元关口，Wind数据显示，锡平均价12月3日达到30.97万元/吨，较上个交易 日增加5630元/吨，已连续5日处于30万元上方。 锡业股份前三季度实现归母净利润17.45亿元，同比增长35.99%，公司公告显示，自2005年以来， 公司锡产销量稳居全球第一，占有全球锡市场最大份额，根据国际锡业协会统计，公司位列2024年十大 精锡生产商之首。 从机构关注度来看，5只锡概念股获机构评级，紫金矿业、锡业股份、兴业银锡机构评级家数居 前，分别达到25家、17家、10家。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 据证券时报·数据宝统计，A股中布局锡产业链的上市公司共有7家。锡价持续上涨背景下，锡产业 链上市公司获得投资者高度关注。多家上市公司在投资者活动中表示，看好锡产业未来前景。 锡业股份在投资者调研活动中表示，供给方面，近年来东南亚锡矿主产国政策收紧趋 ...

Core Insights - The major stock indices experienced a decline in October, with the CSI 300 index falling by 2.46% and closing at 4526.66 points, marking a drop of 114.01 points [11][12]. - The performance of various indices over different time frames shows that the CSI 300 index has gained 15.04% year-to-date, while the CSI 500 index has seen a decline of 4.08% in the past month [11][14]. Monthly Performance of Major Indices - The CSI 300 index opened at 4636.73, reached a high of 4707.13, and closed at 4526.66, reflecting a monthly decline of 2.46% [11]. - The CSI 100 index decreased by 2.05%, closing at 4397.36, while the CSI 800 index fell by 2.90% to 4945.49 [11]. - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.67%, closing at 3888.60 [11]. Sector Performance - The energy sector showed a slight increase of 0.48% in the CSI 300, while the materials sector declined by 2.15% [17][22]. - The industrial sector experienced a significant drop of 3.44%, and the healthcare sector fell by 5.02% [17][22]. - The financial sector had a minor increase of 0.13%, contrasting with the information technology sector, which saw a decline of 7.73% [17][22]. Top and Bottom Performing Stocks - The top-performing stocks in the CSI 300 included GAC Group, which rose by 18.29%, and Weichai Power, which increased by 15.71% [13]. - Conversely, the worst performers included SAILIS, which fell by 18.69%, and Industrial Fulian, which dropped by 15.67% [15][20]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index has a P/E ratio of 14.42 and a P/B ratio of 1.45, indicating a moderate valuation compared to historical averages [14]. - The healthcare sector has the highest P/E ratio at 25.97, while the financial sector has the lowest at 8.61 [14]. Trading Volume and Turnover - The top ten stocks by trading volume in the CSI 300 included China Aluminum and China Bank, with significant trading volumes of 871 million and 453 million respectively [17]. - The turnover rate for the top stocks was notably high for companies like Aters, which had a turnover rate of 250.27% [17].

两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为76.73亿元，近5日增加7.10亿元，增幅为10.19%。（数据宝） 12月3日紫金矿业大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万股） | （万元） | （元） | 溢价（%） | | | | 700.00 | 20979.00 | 29.97 | 0.00 | 瑞银证券有限责任公司上海花 | 华泰证券股份有 | | | | | | 园石桥路证券营业部 | 限公司总部 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 紫金矿业12月3日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量700.00万股，成交金额2.10亿元，大宗交易成交价 为29.97元。该笔交易的买方营业部为瑞银证券有限责任公司上海花园石桥路证券营业部，卖方营业部 为华泰证券股份有限公司总部。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生24笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为24.43亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，紫金矿业今日收盘价为29.97元，上涨0.77%，日换手率为0.93%，成交额为 57.31亿元 ...

| | 证券简称 | 证券代码 601899 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 29.97 20979 | 700 | 公司正常发園早餐 | 卖出营业部 华泰证券股份有限 公司总部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-12-03 | 紫美矿业 | | | | | | 12月3日，紫金矿业大宗交易成交700万股，成交额2.1亿元，占当日总成交额的3.53%，成交价29.97元，较市场收盘价29.97元持平。 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights a warming expectation for interest rate cuts, which is expected to boost metal prices, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes [1][3]. Steel Industry - In December, demand for steel may continue to weaken due to weather factors, leading to a reduction in steel production and a fluctuating price trend [3][19]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from growth policies, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase, alongside trends in equipment upgrades and low-carbon transitions [5][19]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October 2025 was 101,300 tons, down 1.13% month-on-month and 13.06% year-on-year [20][19]. Copper Industry - The copper supply remains tight, with expectations of continued high price fluctuations supported by low domestic inventory levels and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [3][36]. - In October, domestic refined copper production was 1,204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.89% [37][36]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the copper industry, driven by demand from power grids, electric vehicles, and AI servers [5][36]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is experiencing a stable profit level for electrolytic aluminum plants due to low alumina prices, although downstream demand is expected to weaken in December [3][41]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3,798,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.23% [42][41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [5][41]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, influenced by the Fed's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][47]. - From October 31 to November 28, 2025, COMEX gold prices increased by 6.05% to $4,256.40 per ounce [47][47]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand in the energy storage sector, despite a slight decline in demand from the electric vehicle sector [3][52]. - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.50% to 94,000 yuan per ton from October 31 to November 28, 2025 [53][52]. - The report indicates a trend towards regulatory strengthening in the lithium supply side, which may optimize the future supply structure and support lithium prices [5][52]. Cobalt Industry - The cobalt market is expected to face pressure on prices due to a potential decline in demand from the power battery market, while the consumer electronics sector remains robust [4][62]. - In October, domestic cobalt sulfate production was 12,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72% [66][62].