近期，铜市波动引发市场广泛关注，美国银行（美银）和高盛两大机构纷纷发布报告，对铜价走势、关 税影响及相关企业动态进行了深入分析。同时，美银还针对紫金矿业（601899）（H/A）给出了最新研 究观点。 （2）铜价走势与价差变化 关税宣布后，COMEX 铜合约价格下跌 20% 至约 4.46 美元 / 磅（9830 美元 / 吨），COMEX - LME 套 利价差降至约 150 美元，隐含关税约 2%，较本周初的 30% 以上大幅下降。 美银则提到，7 月 8 日特朗普政府表示将对铜征收 50% 关税后，美国 CME 铜期货飙升，价格跳涨逾 13%，达到每磅 5.70 美元的历史新高。CME 与 LME 铜合约之间的套利价差扩大，达到伦敦金属交易 所价格的 30% 的新纪录高点。而在 7 月 30 日政府宣布铜阴极将被排除在关税之外后，这一价差崩溃， 当日 22% 的价格跌幅达到了 13 个标准差。 （3）未来展望 高盛维持其 LME 铜价预测，预计 8 月低点为 9550 美元 / 吨，到 12 月将稳步升至 9700 美元 / 吨，认为 这一公告并未改变市场基本面。同时，高盛认为市场应至少有 25% 的概 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium markets are characterized by high supply concentration and low elasticity, with significant influence from factors such as mine production, recycling, and demand in various sectors. The Chinese market has a high dependence on imports for platinum - palladium resources, and the recycling sector is becoming increasingly important. The development of platinum - palladium futures and options provides new investment opportunities [15][22][86] - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalyst sector is affected by factors such as the development of new - energy vehicles and emission standards. The potential for growth in the hydrogen energy sector offers new prospects for the consumption of platinum and palladium [37][47][77] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview - Platinum and palladium, along with rhodium, ruthenium, osmium, and iridium, form the platinum - group metals (PGMs), which are precious metals. Platinum and palladium have higher demand than other PGMs. Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm [6] - Platinum (Pt) has a high melting point, good ductility, and excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium (Pd) can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [7][8] - Platinum - group metal deposits can be divided into primary and secondary sand deposits. The main formation causes include magmatic action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [10] 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - The supply chain of platinum - group metals has an "oligopoly" structure. Most raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers. The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material composition. The current mainstream purity of platinum and palladium in the spot market is not less than 99.95%, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange requires the delivery purity to be no less than 99.95% [15][19] - The extraction of platinum - group metals involves steps such as exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining. Recycling of platinum - group metals is highly valued due to their low crustal content [16][20] 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - The main platinum - supplying countries are South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output declined in 2024, and it is expected to decline further in 2025 [55][57] - The main platinum - consuming regions are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. The demand in the automotive industry, jewelry, and other sectors showed different trends [59][65] 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - The main palladium - supplying countries are Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States. In 2024, Russia and South Africa accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased by 0.7 tons to 25.6 tons in 2024, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [69][71][77] - The main palladium - consuming regions are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst sector decreased due to factors such as the substitution of new - energy vehicles [73][77] 3.5 Chinese Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with most of the reserves in Gansu. In 2024, China produced 4.9 tons of platinum - palladium metals. The import dependence on platinum - palladium resources is high, and the recycling industry is facing challenges such as waste shortages [82][86] - In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium. The consumption of platinum and palladium in China showed different trends, with the consumption of palladium in the automotive catalyst sector declining significantly [88][92][100] 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review - The historical price trends of platinum and palladium are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, economic conditions, and geopolitical situations. The price difference between platinum and palladium and the ratio of gold to platinum also show certain patterns [116] 3.7 Draft of Platinum and Palladium Futures of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - The contract text, risk control system, and delivery business of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are under development. The current global active platinum and palladium futures markets are mainly in COMEX [52] 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - The draft of platinum and palladium options includes the option contract solicitation draft and the risk control system [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on precious metals, driven by fluctuations in U.S. employment data and the weakening global position of the U.S. dollar, which is expected to support gold prices [5] - Industrial metal prices are currently declining, but significant infrastructure projects in China are anticipated to boost overall demand and metal prices in the medium term [5] - The report highlights the mixed performance of minor metals, with tungsten prices increasing due to rising demand in manufacturing [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are seeing price increases, indicating potential growth in demand for these materials [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 0.85% decline in Shanghai gold prices, with U.S. non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, which is significantly below market expectations [5][42] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have decreased by 1.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 3.0%, 3.3%, and 3.7% respectively [5][28] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides showed mixed results, while tungsten prices have increased due to a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][32] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with cobalt products also showing upward trends, indicating a growing demand for energy metals [5][35] 2. Market Data - The report indicates a 0.94% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with the non-ferrous metals sector down 4.62% [36] 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights the significant downward revision of U.S. employment data for May and June, which has contributed to market volatility [42]

2025年7月30日至31日，由上海证券交易所联合华安基金及国泰海通证券共同主办的"走进ETF成分股公 司·紫金矿业站"活动在厦门及上杭两地成功举办。本次活动以"实地调研+专题研讨"双环节深度展开， 呼应了上交所"以投资者为本，重回报促发展"的主题，旨在让投资者近距离感受现代矿业的科技魅力， 更加了解ETF背后的投资标的，从而对指数化投资有更深的感知。 01紫金矿业：致力于打造"绿色高技术超一流国际矿业集团" 活动伊始，与会者观看了公司宣传片，系统了解了公司发展历程、核心竞争力、业务布局及未来战略规 划。公司在全球范围内从事铜、金、锌、锂、银、钼等金属矿产资源勘查、开发及工程设计、技术应用 研究的大型跨国矿业集团。目前，公司在全球17个国家和中国17个省（区）拥有重要矿业投资项目，截 至2024年底，按控股企业100%口径及联营合营企业权益口径计算，公司保有探明、控制及推断的总资 源量为铜11，037万吨、金3，973吨、锌（铅）1，298万吨、银31，836吨，锂（LCE）1，788万吨。公 司坚持以科技创新为核心竞争力，在地质勘查评价、开采技术、低品位难选冶资源综合回收利用、大规 模工程化开发及环保等方面 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | 8.72 | -1.47% | 38.73万 | 3.38亿 | | 605208 | 永成泰 | 12.95 | -0.92% | 9.53万 | · 1.24亿 | | 002988 | 蒙美新材 | 44.36 | -0.52% | 3.43万 ﺧ | 1.53亿 | | 600615 | 丰华股份 | 12.54 | -0.32% | 3.66万 | 4602.25万 | | 002114 | 罗平锌电 | 7.25 | -0.14% | 8.39万 | 6091.59万 | | 002824 | 和胜股份 | 17.42 | -0.11% | 11.78万 | 2.04亿 | | 000933 | 神火股份 | 17.77 | -0.11% | 27.09万 | 4.78亿 | | 600338 | 西藏朱峰 | 11.69 | -0.09% | 19.90万 | 2.33亿 | | 6681888 | 紫 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies have reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, attracting market attention and investment despite a challenging economic environment [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - 59 stocks have been identified as having exceeded market expectations, with notable companies including CATL, Industrial Fulian, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, and WuXi AppTec [1] - The sectors with the most stocks exceeding expectations include power equipment, machinery, electronics, automotive, defense, and basic chemicals, with power equipment having the highest representation [1] - 18 stocks reported a net profit growth of over 100% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Specific Company Performances - Zhimin Da achieved a net profit of 0.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.48 times, driven by significant order growth in embedded modules, particularly in AI products [2] - Shijia Photon reported total revenue of 0.993 billion yuan, a 121.12% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 323.59% [2] - Suotong Development expects a net profit of 0.45 to 0.54 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.35 to 16.22 times due to favorable market conditions in the aluminum industry [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Trends - The average increase for the 59 stocks that exceeded expectations was 37.45% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - Six stocks have doubled in value, including Shijia Photon and Zhimin Da [4] - Notable financing activity has been observed, with 18 stocks seeing net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since July, including New Yi Sheng and WuXi AppTec [4] Group 4: Noteworthy Forecasts - New Yi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [6] - The company benefits from increased investment in AI-related computing power and a shift towards high-speed product demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of intensive disclosure of semi-annual reports, with companies that exceed expectations receiving significant attention from the market, indicating a positive influx of capital despite a complex economic environment [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - A total of 59 stocks have been recognized by brokerage institutions for exceeding performance expectations, including major companies such as CATL, Industrial Fulian, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, and WuXi AppTec [3] - The electric equipment industry stands out with 8 stocks making the list of exceeding expectations, reflecting a high overall industry prosperity [4] - 18 stocks reported a net profit growth of over 100% in the first half of the year, with Zhimin Da achieving a remarkable net profit growth of 21.48 times, driven by significant order growth in embedded modules and strong performance in missile and AI products [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The 59 stocks that exceeded expectations have seen an average increase of 37.45% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - Six stocks have doubled in value, including Shijia Photon, Jieput, Xinyi Sheng, Zhenyu Technology, Zhimin Da, and Craft Home [5] - Financing funds have shown strong interest in stocks with exceeding performance, with 18 such stocks seeing a net buy-in of over 100 million yuan since July, led by Xinyi Sheng with a net buy-in of 3.406 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Industry Leaders - Industry leaders such as WuXi AppTec, CATL, Zijin Mining, and Zhongji Xuchuang have also seen significant increases in financing, reinforcing their investment value due to their technological advantages and market positions [5] - Suotong Development is expected to report a net profit of 450 million to 540 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.35 to 16.22 times, benefiting from rising pre-baked anode prices and strong market demand [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 59 stocks have reported "better than expected" performance according to brokerage institutions, including major companies with market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion [1] - Notable companies that reported exceeding expectations include CATL, Industrial Fulian, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, Zhongji Xuchuang, and WuXi AppTec [1] - Following the announcement of these better-than-expected performance data, several stocks have seen significant increases in net purchases from financing clients, with 18 stocks having net purchases exceeding 100 million since July [1]

铜业股多数上涨，截至发稿，五矿资源(01208)涨2.61%，报3.93港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 1.53%，报9.31港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨0.82%，报16.02港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨0.74%，报21.82港元。 消息面上，8月4日，据新华社报道，智利总统博里奇近日表示，该国中部奥伊金斯大区数日前发生的矿 难共造成6人死亡，其中5名被困矿工全部遇难。据媒体报道，Codelco已启动事故原因调查，地下作业 全面停止。目前尚不清楚停产将持续多长时间，以及是否会影响公司的产量目标。该矿占Codelco总产 量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。铜矿停产消息提振了本已紧张的铜市情绪。 此前，7月30日，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，以应对铜进口对美国国家安全的影响，包括对几类 铜进口产品征收关税。华西证券（002926）指出，由于此次关税未对铜原料进行限制，COMEX铜溢价 消失，叠加今年美国铜进口量已经超过去年全年，且74.3%进口量为不受关税影响的铜原料。预计贸易 商未来将不再持续往美国运输铜，铜将流向除美国外消费地区，例如欧洲和亚洲 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper and related materials in the Asia Pacific region, specifically focusing on the implications of US tariffs on copper products [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **US Tariffs**: The US is set to impose a 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished copper and copper-intensive derivative products, while copper input materials such as cathode, anode, concentrate, and scrap will not be subject to these tariffs [7][4] - **Market Reaction**: Following the announcement of tariffs, COMEX copper prices peaked over 30% higher than LME copper prices, indicating market expectations of broader tariff implications. However, with copper cathode exempt from tariffs, COMEX prices have since decreased by approximately 19%, and the premium over LME has fallen to around 6% [2][4] - **Inventory Levels**: There has been a significant increase in onshore copper inventory, with an additional 475,000 tons purchased since mid-March, suggesting that the US market is well-supplied and may see reduced import demand for copper in the near term [2][4] Implications for Chinese-listed Copper Companies - **Investment Recommendations**: Despite expected short-term pressure on companies like Zijin Mining, CMOC, MMG, and Jiangxi Copper, it is suggested that investors should consider accumulating shares of these companies on any price dips [3][4] - **Company Specifics**: - **Zijin Mining Group**: Target price adjustments based on A-share and H-share arbitrage opportunities [14][3] - **CMOC Group**: Valuation based on DCF model with a WACC of 10.7% and projected revenue growth of 2% annually [10][3] - **MMG Ltd**: Valuation reflects high visibility in long-term copper and zinc production with a cost of equity of 16.9% [8][3] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: - Upside risks include stronger copper prices due to robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries [12][17] - Downside risks involve potential economic downturns, project execution failures, and geopolitical risks affecting production [12][17] - **Regulatory Changes**: Changes in mining laws in Peru and other regions could impact supply dynamics and pricing [12][17] Additional Important Information - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has received compensation from several companies mentioned, which may influence research objectivity [5][24][25] - **Analyst Ratings**: The report includes various stock ratings for companies in the sector, indicating a mix of overweight and underweight positions based on market conditions [81][83] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications from the conference call regarding the copper industry and specific companies within the sector, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.